THE ECONOMY AND THE LABOUR MARKET: NOW AND AHEAD

Transcription

1 THE ECONOMY AND THE LABOUR MARKET: NOW AND AHEAD Some observations and thoughts, CMSF Conference, Brisbane David de Garis Director, Economics, Markets March 16, 2018

2 GENERAL ADVICE WARNING Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by National Australia Bank Limited ABN AFSL ( NAB ). Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, NAB recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. NAB recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement or other disclosure document, before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. 2

3 PRE CAPITA CONSUMPTION SOMEWHAT RESTRAINED 3 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

4 AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS CONDITIONS AT A RECORD HIGH 4 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

5 AND VERY MUCH PARTICIPATING IN A ROBUST GLOBAL UPTURN The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

6 RISING PAYROLLS, OFFERED SALARIES & DIFFICULTY FINDING THE RIGHT LABOUR The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

7 HEADLINE WAGES GROWTH BEGINNING TO TURN 7 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

8 EBA AGREEMENTS IMPORTANT TO WATCH 8 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

9 QLD ALREADY TURNED; WA TURNING Source: SEEK The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

10 UNDEREMPLOYMENT REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE: STRUCTURAL? 10 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

11 UNEMPLOYMENT STILL ABOVE FULL EMPLOYMENT (~5%?) 11 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

12 US NOW UNEMPLOYMENT NOW UNDER FULL EMPLOYMENT (THE BLACK LINE) 12 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

13 LOCAL CASH MARKETS HAVE A MILD TIGHTENING BIAS 13 The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

14 NAB S FAIR VALUE MODEL FOR THE $A/US$ - fair value ~@ The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

15 THE FUTURE: JOBS CREATED STILL OUTPACING JOBS LOST The nature of work is changing for the better. The average weekly hours worked keeps falling, productivity and wages generally keep rising, and the nation won t run out of jobs. It won t run out of workers through ageing, either. Robots won t create high unemployment. The nature of employment is moving towards rewarding outputs, not inputs (hours and other protocols), altering industrial relations for the better. And old industries are being replaced with new industries mostly service industries and mostly with higher wages. Australia is creating far more jobs than it is losing. The fear of running out of jobs is groundless. Phil Ruthven, IBIS World, Feb The Economy and the Labour Market, address to CMSF Conference, Brisbane, 16 March David degaris, Director, Economics, Markets, NAB

16 FORECAST SUMMARY Forecasts Economics - yoy% Markets / Rates 12 Mar Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Household Consumption RBA Cash Residential Construction day bills Business Investment Year Swap Private demand Year Swap Public spending Domestic demand year ACGB Exports Aus-US 10yr bond Imports Fed Funds Rate Net Exports (a) US 10 Year Bond Real GDP AUD Nominal GDP AUD/NZD Terms of Trade AUD/JPY GDP deflator AUD/EUR AUD/GBP CPI AUD/CNY Underlying CPI WTI oil Wages Iron ore Employment Gold Unemployment Sou ce oo be g; rate (%) Ju e sca 5.7 yea LNG ($A/ GJ) a. contribution to annual GDP. Inventories and statistical discrepancy not shown 16 Footer

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