Parallel Session 5: FDI and development

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1 ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH AND TRAINING NETWORK ON TRADE ARTNeT CONFERENCE ARTNeT Trade Economists Conference Trade in the Asian century - delivering on the promise of economic prosperity rd September 2014 Parallel Session 5: FDI and development

2 Economic Impact of FDI in India: A Social Accounting Matrix Multiplier Analysis Akhilesh K. Sharma Institute of Economic Growth New Delhi, India Asia Pacific Trade Economists Conference organized by ARTNeT, UNSCAP September 2014, Bangkok, Thailand

3 Introduction Foreign direct investment : A direct investment into production activities in a country by a firm (or individual) based in foreign country. Paves way for technology transfer Affects productivity, growth, employment, income, etc. Highly heterogeneous effects and depend upon type of industries and products in which the investment take place A policy matter of a government Many studies on impact analysis Very few, possibly none in Indian context, considered sectoral and institutional interconnectedness and interdependence Impact analysis in Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework may be the best alternative

4 Rationale for the Study Econometric analysis or Survey Methods: limited significance for performance assessment. The real world consists of many interdependent and interconnected production sectors, households and institutions. Any change in one may have direct and/indirect effect on others. Circular Flow of Income and Structure of SAM

5 Circular flow of income in an economy Factor Markets Taxes Savings Value Added Factors Income Activities Households Enterprises Government Capital Intermediate Consumption Sales Transfers Commodity Market Final Goods Export Import Remittances Current External Balance Rest of World Tariffs Indirect Taxes Note: The arrow in above diagram shows the direction of payments. Source:Chung-I Li (2002)

6 Production activities Factors Institutions Capital account Rest of the world Total Production Activities I-o table Value added Taxes intermediary goods on Total cost of production Schematic Structure of a SAM Factors Institutions Capital Account Rest of the World Total Institutions consumption Taxes, transfer payments and interest on public debt Gross fixed capital formation Taxes investment goods Depreciation Institutions savings Foreign savings Total factor endowments Institutions expenditure total Aggregate investment on Exports Net factor income from abroad Net current & capital transfer from abroad, taxes on exports Gross savings of the economy Foreign exchange receipts Aggregate demand Factor income Institutions total income Foreign exchange payments

7 Objectives To analyze the economic impacts of FDI in India through SAM multiplier analysis Economic impacts measures Output Income Revenue Employment

8 Methodology Construction of 65 Sector SAM for India for Household categories are based on MPCE Sources: I-O table by CSO; 66 th round consumer expenditure survey by NSSO; Income-Expenditure Survey by NCAER for SAM Multipliers Symbolically, a SAM may be represented as X = Z + E Endogenous... (1) Demand X = (I-M) -1 E (2) Output SAM Multiplier Exogenous Demand

9 Effects Measurement of SAM Multiplier Effect Measurements Total Output Effect Direct Output Effect Indirect Output Effect Income Effect Revenue Effect Total Employment Effect Direct Employment Effect Indirect Employment Effect Increment in production account Increment in production account of sectors in which exogenous change has occurred Difference of total output effect and direct output effect Increment in income Increment in revenue Multiplication of total output effect and employment coefficient Multiplication of direct output effect and employment coefficient Multiplication of indirect output effect and employment coefficient

10 Rank s Country 1 Mauritius 2 Singapore 3 U.K. 4 Japan 5 USA 6 Netherlands 7 Cyprus 8 Germany 9 France Major Sources of FDI in India (Values in Crore Rs) (April 11, March 12) (28.28) (14.96) (22.06) (8.53) 5347 (3.24) 6598 (4.00) 7722 (4.68) 7452 (4.51) 3110 (1.88) 1728 (1.05) (April 11, March 12) (42.29) (10.33) 5797 (4.76) (10.04) 3033 (2.49) (8.25) 2658 (2.18) 4684 (3.84) 3487 (2.86) (April 11, March 12) (19.90) (24.15) (13.85) (7.15) 4807 (3.26) (9.44) 3401 (2.31) 6093 (4.13) 1842 (1.25) Switzerland (0.81) (1.41) Total FDI from all countries (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Note: Values in parenthesis shows percentage of total FDI. Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion, India s Ministry of Commerce and Industry (April 00, March 14) (35.47) (12.05) (9.66) (7.72) (5.34) (5.39) (3.42) (3.03) (1.79) (1.26) (100.00)

11 Rank s Sectors 1 Services Sectors Major Sectors Attracting FDI in India (Values in Crore Rs) 2 Construction Development 3 Telecommunications Computer Software & 4 Hardware 5 Drugs & Pharmaceuticals 6 Automobile Industry 7 Chemicals 8 Power 9 Metallurgical Industries 10 Hotel & Tourism (April 11, March 12) (14.93) (9.23) 9012 (5.46) 3804 (2.30) (8.84) 4347 (2.63) (11.15) 7678 (4.65) 8348 (5.05) 4754 (2.88) (100.00) (April 11, March 12) (21.58) 7248 (5.95) 1654 (1.36) 2656 (2.18) 6011 (4.93) 8384 (6.88) 1596 (1.31) 2923 (2.40) 7878 (6.46) (14.58) (100.00) (April 11, March 12) (9.01) 7508 (5.09) 7987 (5.41) 6896 (4.67) 7191 (4.87) 9027 (6.12) 4738 (3.21) 6519 (4.42) 3436 (2.33) 2949 (2.00) (100.00) (April 00, March 14) (17.77) (10.39) (6.39) (5.71) (5.37) (4.61) (4.33) (4.08) (3.66) (3.47) (100.00) Total FDI Note: Values in parenthesis shows percentage of total FDI; Services sector includes Financial, Banking, Insurance, Non-Financial / Business, Outsourcing, R&D, Courier, Tech. Testing and Analysis; Construction development represents Townships, housing, built-up infrastructure and construction-development projects Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion, India s Ministry of Commerce and Industry

12 Regional Distribution of FDI in India (Values in Crore Rs) S.No. State (April 11, March 12) 1 Maharashtra, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu (27.04) 2 Delhi, Part of Up & Haryana (22.65) 3 Tamilnadu, Pondicherry 6711 (4.06) 4 Karnataka 7235 (4.38) 5 Gujarat 4730 (2.86) 6 Andhra Pradesh 4039 (2.45) 7 West Bengal, Sikkim, Andaman & Nicobar Islands 1817 (1.10) 8 Chandigarh, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh 624 (0.38) 9 Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh 569 (0.34) 10 Kerala, Lakshadweep 2274 (1.38) 11 Goa 181 (0.11) 12 Rajasthan 161 (0.10) 13 Orissa 125 (0.08) 14 Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal 635 (0.38) (April 11, March 12) (38.82) (14.34) (12.50) 5653 (4.63) 2676 (2.19) 6290 (5.16) 2319 (1.90) 255 (0.21) 1208 (0.99) 390 (0.32) 47 (0.04) 714 (0.59) 285 (0.23) 167 (0.14) (April 11, March 12) (13.96) (25.89) (8.54) (7.74) 5282 (3.58) 4024 (2.73) 2659 (1.80) 562 (0.38) 708 (0.48) 411 (0.28) 103 (0.07) 233 (0.16) 288 (0.20) 150 (0.10) (April 00, March 14) (30.09) (19.81) (6.27) (5.83) (4.25) (3.92) (1.26) 6126 (0.59) 5495 (0.53) 4732 (0.45) 3656 (0.35) 3558 (0.34) 1906 (0.18) 1765 (0.17)

13 Output Effect Impact of FDI on Output Output Effect Sectors In Rs. Crore In terms of total FDI Primary Secondary Tertiary Total

14 Sectors Primary Direct & Indirect Impact of FDI on Output Output Effect Direct Indirect Total (25.08; 98.02) (17.26;100.00) (41.80; ) 1553 (1.05; 1.98) Secondary (56.30; 43.81) (34.81; 56.19) Tertiary (42.64;33.88) (40.12; 66.12) (40.94; ) Total (100.00; 32.52) (100.00; 67.48) (100.00; ) Note: In parenthesis, the first values show percentage of the vertical total while the second values show percentage of the horizontal total.

15 Institutions Households Pvt. Corp. Pub. Enter. Total Income Income Effect due to FDI in India in Income Effect (in Rs. Crore) (88.73) (8.11) (3.16) (100.00) Note: Values in parenthesis shows percentage of total income effect. Ratio of Income Effect and Initial Expenditure

16 Household Category RH1 RH2 RH3 RH4 RH5 Rural Households UH1 UH2 UH3 UH4 UH5 Urban Households Total Households Households Income Effect Income Effect (Values in Crore Rs) (3.62) (4.38) (6.00) (11.67) (33.05) (58.72) (1.76) (3.13) (4.73) (9.78) (21.88) (41.28) (100.00) Note: Values in parenthesis shows percentage of total households income effect. Ratio of Income Effect and Initial Expenditure

17 Per Capita Income Effect

18 Revenue Effect due to FDI in India in Taxes Revenue Effect (Values in Crore Rs) Ratio of Revenue Effect and Initial Expenditure Direct Taxes (64.58) 0.11 Indirect Taxes (35.42) 0.06 Total Taxes (100.00) 0.16 Note: Values in parenthesis shows percentage of total revenue effect.

19 Sectors Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Employment Effect due to FDI in India in (Values in Ten Thousands) Employment Effect Direct Indirect Total (1.70; 0.36) (72.92; 99.64) (63.26; ) (33.56; 40.96) (7.59; 59.04) (11.12; ) (64.74; 34.27) (19.49; 65.73) (25.63; ) (100.00; 13.56) (100.00; 86.44) (100.00; ) Note: In parenthesis, the first values show percentage of the vertical total while the second values show percentage of the horizontal total.

20 S. No. Sectors attracting Highest FDI at present 1 Services Sectors 2 Construction Development 3 Telecommunications Computer Software & Hardware Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Automobile Industry 7 Chemicals 8 Power Metallurgical 9 Industries 10 Search for Priority Sectors for FDI Sectors with Highest Output Effect Sugar and Khandsari Processed Foods & Beverages Tea and Coffee Processing Paddy Hotel and Restaurants Textile & Textile Products Vanaspati and Edible Oil Leather and Leather Products Construction Sectors with Highest Income Effect Public Administration Education and Research Sugar and Khandsari Animal Husbandry and Livestock Paddy Real Estate Activities Groundnut Sugarcane Tea Sectors with Highest Employment Effect Paddy Wheat Gram and Pulses Trade Services Animal Husbandry and Livestock Construction Land Transport Including via Pipelines Processed Foods & Beverages Hotel and Restaurants Jowar Fishing Maize

21 Conclusion Sectoral and Regional disparity prevails in FDI distribution in India Significant output, income, revenue and employment effects have been observed Secondary sectors have the highest output effect The indirect output effect is higher than that of direct output effects due to the influence of linkages in the economy. The income effect has shown a fovour of richer section of the society, thus it has inequality augmenting effect. Primary sectors have the highest employment effects. For enhancing output, income and employment simultaneously, FDI must be diverted towards primary sectors.

22 Thank You For Comments and Queries, Please contact at

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