ASSOCHAM Economic Weekly 11 th May, 2014

Transcription

1 ASSOCHAM Economic Weekly 11 th May, 2014 Assocham Economic Research Bureau THE ASSOCIATED CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY OF INDIA

2 Contents 1. Macroeconomy 1.1 India s Foreign Trade, April Railways Revenue Earnings, April Cargo Handled by Major Ports, April Foreign Tourist Arrivals, April Corporate Sector 2.1 Automobile Production and Sale, April Market Trends 4. Global Developments 4.1 US International Trade in Goods and Services, March UK Trade, March Data Appendix Advertisement Opportunities 2

3 1. Macroeconomy 1.1 India s Foreign Trade, April 2014 Exports during April, 2014 were valued at US $ million (Rs crore) which was 5.26 per cent higher in Dollar terms (16.83 per cent higher in Rupee terms) than the level of US $ million (Rs crore) during April, Imports during April, 2014 were valued at US $ million (Rs crore) representing a negative growth of 15 per cent in Dollar terms and negative growth of 5.66 per cent in Rupee terms over the level of imports valued at US $ million (Rs crore) in April, Oil imports during April, 2014 were valued at US $ million which was 0.6 per cent lower than oil imports valued at US $ million in the corresponding period last year. Non-oil imports during April, 2014 were estimated at US $ million which was 21.5 per cent lower than non-oil imports of US $ million in April, The trade deficit for April, 2014 was estimated at US $ million which is lower than the deficit of US $ million during April, Please refer Table 1 Table 1 India s foreign trade (US $ Million) April* Exports (including re-exports)

4 1.2 Railways Revenue Earnings, April %Growth / Imports %Growth / Trade Balance Source: Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of India Note: * Provisional The total approximate earnings of Indian Railways on originating basis during April 2014 were Rs crore compared to Rs crore during the same period last year, registering an increase of 9.57 per cent. The total goods earnings in the month of April 2014 were Rs crore compared to Rs crore during the same period last year. The total passenger revenue earnings in April 2014 were Rs crore compared to Rs crore during the same period last year. The revenue earnings from other coaching amounted to Rs crore during April 2014 compared to Rs crore during the same period last year. The total approximate numbers of passengers booked during April 2014 were million compared to million during the same period last year. In the suburban and non-suburban sectors, the numbers of passengers booked during April 2014 were million and million compared to million and million during the same period last year. 4

5 1.3 Cargo Handled by Major Ports, April 2014 Compared to April last year, about nine per cent growth is registered in cargo handling by the major of ports of the country in the first month of the current financial year. In April last year, there was a negative growth of six per cent. Tuticorin Port (V.O. Chidambaranar) recorded highest growth in traffic by 36.3% last month followed by Mumbai (31%) and Murmugao (23.2%) in comparison to the April month last year. In terms of volumes Kanlda port handled over 6.9 million tonnes last month, the highest among the ports in April 2014, with a share of 14.7%, followed by Paradip port which handled over 6.4 million tonnes. In all over 47 million tonnes was handled last month by various major ports of the country. Among commodities, there was an increase of 25% in handling of fertilizers in April 2014 in comparison to April Iron ore handling has shown a sharp increase of 16.8% against negative growth of 62.3% in the previous year. Total cargo traffic at India s major ports during is million tonnes, an increase by 1.8%, compared with million tones handled in Foreign Tourist Arrivals, April 2014 Some important highlights regarding Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) and Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from tourism during the month of April, 2014 are: Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs): FTAs during the Month of April 2014 was 5.04 lakh as compared to FTAs of 4.52 lakh during the month of April 2013 and 4.48 lakh in April There has been a growth of 11.5% in April 2014 over April 2013 as compared to a growth of 1.0% registered in April 2013 over April

6 FTAs during the period January-April 2014 were lakh with a growth of 6.1%, as compared to the FTAs of lakh with a growth of 2.6% during January-April 2013 over the corresponding period of Foreign Exchange Earnings (FEEs) from Tourism in rupee terms and US$ terms FEEs during the month of April 2014 were Rs.8,909 crore as compared to Rs.7,252 crore in April 2013 and Rs.6,745 crore in April The growth rate in FEEs in rupee terms in April 2014 over April 2013 was 22.8% as compared to 7.5% in April 2013 over April FEE from tourism in rupee terms during January-April 2014 were Rs.41,718 crore with a growth of 11.2%, as compared to the FEE of Rs.37,522 crore with a growth of 18.3% during January-April 2013 over the corresponding period of FEEs in US$ terms during the month of April 2014 were US$ billion as compared to FEEs of US$ billion during the month of April 2013 and US$ billion in April The growth rate in FEEs in US$ terms in April 2014 over April 2013 was of 10.6% as compared to the growth of 2.2% in April 2013 over April FEE from tourism in terms of US$ during January-April 2014 were US$ billion with a negative growth of 2.0%, as compared to US$ billion with a growth of 10.3% during January-April 2013 over the corresponding period of

7 2. Corporate Sector 2.1 Automobile Production and Sale, April 2014 Production The industry produced a total 1,861,849 vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in April 2014 as against 1,687,243 in April 2013, registering a growth of percent over the same month last year. The growth continues to be on account of growth in two wheelers production. Domestic Sales The sales of Passenger Vehicles declined by (-) 9.50 percent in April 2014 over the same month last year. Within the Passenger Vehicles, Passenger Cars and Vans dropped by (-) percent and (-) percent respectively, while Utility Vehicles grew marginally by 0.27 percent in April 2014 over the same month last year The overall Commercial Vehicles segment registered a de-growth of (-) percent in April 2014 as compared to same month last year. Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles (M&HCVs) registered negative growth at (-) percent and Light Commercial Vehicles also dropped by (- ) percent. Three Wheelers sales declined by (-) 2.17 percent in April 2014 over the same month last year. Passenger Carriers and Goods Carriers declined by (-) 2.62 percent and (-) 0.46 percent respectively in April 2014 over April

8 Two Wheelers sales registered growth of percent in April 2014 over April Within the Two Wheelers segment, Scooters, Motorcycles and Mopeds grew by percent, 8.06 percent and 0.23 percent respectively in April 2014 over April Please refer Table 2 Exports Table 2 Automobile Industry - Domestic sales April 2014 Mar 2014 Change (%) April 2014 Change (%) Cars Utility Vehicles Passenger Vehicles Two-wheelers Commercial vehicles Total Industry In April 2014, overall automobile exports grew by percent. Passenger Vehicles and Three Wheelers registered de-growth at (-) 0.95 percent (-) percent respectively while Commercial vehicles and Two wheelers registered growth at percent and percent respectively in April 2014 over April

9 3. Market Trends BSE: The BSE Sensex increased by 2.59 per cent and closed at NSE: Nifty increased by 2.65 per cent during the week and closed at Dollar: The value of Rupee depreciated by Rs against the US dollar during the week and closed at Rs per dollar. Euro: The value of Rupee appreciated by Rs against the Euro and closed at Rs per euro. Gold: Prices of gold decreased by Rs per 10 grams during the week and closed at Rs per 10 grams. Silver: Prices of silver decreased by Rs during the week and closed at Rs Per kg. Crude Oil: The prices of crude oil decreased by USD 0.5 per barrel and closed at USD per barrel. Forex Reserves: India s Foreign Exchange reserves increased by USD 1.94 billion to USD billion during the week-ended May 2,

10 4. Global Developments 4.1 US International Trade in Goods and Services, March 2014 According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis total March exports of $193.9 billion and imports of $234.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $40.4 billion, down from $41.9 billion in February, revised. March exports were $3.9 billion more than February exports of $190.0 billion. March imports were $2.5 billion more than February imports of $231.8 billion. In March, the goods deficit decreased $0.6 billion from February to $60.7 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.9 billion from February to $20.4 billion. Exports of goods increased $3.7 billion to $135.1 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.1 billion to $195.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $58.8 billion, and imports of services decreased $0.7 billion to $38.4 billion. The goods and services deficit increased $3.8 billion from March 2013 to March Exports were up $9.2 billion, or 5.0 percent, and imports were up $13.0 billion, or 5.9 percent. The February to March increase in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($2.1 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.6 billion); other goods ($0.3 billion); and foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.1 billion). A decrease occurred in consumer goods ($0.3 billion). The February to March increase in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer goods ($1.2 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.0 billion); capital goods ($0.9 billion); and other goods ($0.8 billion). A decrease occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.5 billion). Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines were virtually unchanged. 10

11 The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in exports of goods reflected increases in capital goods ($2.8 billion); consumer goods ($1.5 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.5 billion); and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.6 billion). Decreases occurred in industrial supplies and materials ($0.6 billion) and other goods ($0.2 billion). The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in imports of goods reflected increases in consumer goods ($4.1 billion); capital goods ($3.2 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion); foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.0 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.8 billion); and other goods ($0.1 billion). Exports of services increased $0.2 billion from February to March. Increases in other private services ($0.2 billion), which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services, and in passenger fares ($0.1 billion) were partly offset by a decrease in travel ($0.1 billion). Changes in the other categories of services exports were relatively small. Imports of services decreased $0.7 billion from February to March. The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in exports of services was $3.3 billion or 6.0 percent. The largest increases were in other private services ($2.0 billion), in travel ($0.7 billion), and in royalties and license fees ($0.6 billion). Within other private services, the largest increase was in business, professional, and technical services. The March 2013 to March 2014 increase in imports of services was $1.8 billion or 4.8 percent. The largest increases were in other private services ($1.5 billion) and in other transportation ($0.2 billion). Within other private services, the largest increase was in business, professional, and technical services. Please refer Table 3 Table 3 US International Trade in Goods and Services Balance Exports Imports (US $ Million) 11

12 2013 Total Goods (1) Services Total Goods (1) Services Total Goods (1) Services Jan. - Dec. -474, , ,046 2,271,385 1,589, ,721 2,746,249 2,293, ,675 Jan. - Mar. -121, ,698 56, , , , , , ,394 January -42,139-61,216 19, , ,806 55, , ,022 36,906 February -43,257-62,130 18, , ,198 55, , ,328 36,808 March -36,562-55,352 18, , ,289 55, , ,641 36,680 April -39,374-58,341 18, , ,042 56, , ,383 37,299 May -43,661-62,868 19, , ,180 56, , ,049 37,522 June -34,414-53,769 19, , ,018 57, , ,787 37,682 July -38,900-57,903 19, , ,905 56, , ,808 37,844 August -39,207-58,091 18, , ,579 57, , ,670 38,172 September -43,434-62,407 18, , ,291 56, , ,698 37,988 October -39,770-58,781 19, , ,642 57, , ,423 38,458 November -35,171-54,362 19, , ,978 57, , ,340 38,475 December -38,975-58,689 19, , ,737 58, , ,426 38, Jan. - Mar. -121, ,593 60, , , , , , ,042 January -39,280-59,501 20, , ,751 58, , ,253 38,487 February (R) -41,874-61,344 19, , ,384 58, , ,728 39,110 March -40,378-60,748 20, , ,096 58, , ,843 38,445 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: (1) Data are presented on a balance of payments (BOP) basis 4.2 UK Trade, March 2014 UK deficit of trade in goods and services for March 2014 was 1.3 billion, compared with a deficit of 1.7 billion in the previous month. The deficit on trade in goods was 8.5 billion in March Exports of goods increased by 4.9% between February and March 2014 to 24.6 billion reflecting an increase in exports of finished manufactures which increased by 0.6 billion. This increase was spread fairly evenly within finished manufactures, however exports of jewellery and exports of cars were the most significant movements, rising by 0.2 billion and 0.1 billion respectively. Imports of goods for the same period increased by 2.8% to 33.1 billion. Again, the rise reflects an increase in the import of finished manufactures, specifically imports of aircraft which rose 0.3 billion from the previous month. In March 2014, exports of goods to countries within the European Union (EU) increased by 0.7 billion to 12.3 billion; 0.6 billion of this increase was attributed to trade in oil. Imports from the 12

13 EU increased by 0.1 billion to 17.6 billion. A 0.3 billion increase in imports of semi manufactures (primarily chemicals) was almost entirely offset by a 0.3 billion fall in imports of fuels. In March 2014, exports of goods to countries outside of the EU increased by 0.4 billion to 12.4 billion. Imports from countries outside of the EU increased by 0.8 billion to 15.6 billion. The deficit on trade in goods narrowed by less than 0.1 billion to 26.7 billion in Q1 2014, compared with the previous quarter. Exports of goods decreased by 2.8 billion to 72.0 billion in Q reflecting a fall in exports of manufactured goods of 2.3 billion; 1.2 billion of this decrease is attributed to exports of finished manufactures, specifically aircraft. Imports of goods decreased by 2.8 billion to 98.7 billion in Q Imports of manufactured goods accounts for 1.4 billion of this fall; 1.0 billion of which is attributed to imports of semi-manufactures (chemicals and materials). Imports of fuels (specifically oil) contributed a further 0.8 billion to the decrease. Please refer Table 4 Table 4 UK Trade ( million) Total Trade Trade in goods Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Balance Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Oct Nov Dec Jan 40,980 43,192-2,212 23,936 33,408-9,472 Feb 40,518 42,231-1,713 23,473 32,222-8,749 Mar 41,642 42,926-1,284 24,631 33,109-8,478 Percentage change, latest month compared with: Previous Month Source: UK Office for National Statistics 13

14 5. Data Appendix Table 5 Latest Available Financial Information April 25, 2014 May 02, 2014 Percentage Change Item Deposits of Scheduled Commercial Banks with RBI (Rs. Billion) 3, , Foreign Currency Assets of RBI (Rs. Billion) 17, , Advances of RBI to the Central Government (Rs. Billion) Advances of RBI to the Scheduled Commercial Banks (Rs. Billion) Source: RBI, Govt. of India Table 6 BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty Index Index May 05, 2014 May 09, 2014 Percentage Change BSE SENSEX 22, , S & P CNX NIFTY 6, , Source: BSE India and NSE India 14

15 Advertisement Opportunities Dear All, As you may be aware, we are compiling/circulating this ASSOCHAM Economic E-Bulletin on weekly basis. The E-Bulletin covers developments taking place at macroeconomic, industrial, market and international levels and is being circulated to all ASSOCHAM members. With the E- Bulletin being circulated to Manufacturers, Suppliers, Service Providers & all majors SME/ MSME companies in India it provides a good platform for promoting your Product /Services through the medium by way of extending advertisement support. The Cost of publishing an A4 Size full page advertisement in the E-Bulletin is Rs.50, 000 annually +service tax (Rs annually). We request you to consider publishing an advertisement of your company in our Economic E-Bulletin. The Advertisement material can be send electronically ( , CD etc.). For any query please feel free to contact the undersigned. ASSOCHAM Economic Research Bureau Tel No: research@assocham.com 15

16 ASSOCHAM Economic Research Bureau ASSOCHAM Economic Research Bureau (AERB) is the research division of the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India. The Research Bureau undertakes studies on various economic issues, policy matters, financial markets, international trade, social development, sector wise performance and monitoring global economy dynamics. The main banners of the Bureau are: ASSOCHAM Eco Pulse (AEP) studies are based on the data provided by various institutions like Reserve Bank of India, World Bank, IMF, WTO, CSO, Finance Ministry, Commerce Ministry, CMIE etc. ASSOCHAM Business Barometer (ABB) are based on the surveys conducted by the Research Team to take note of the opinion of leading CEOs, MDs, CFOs, economists and experts in various fields. ASSOCHAM Investment Meter (AIM) keeps the track of the investment announcements by the private sector in different sectors and across the various states and cities. ASSOCHAM Placement Pattern (APP) is based on the sample data that is tracked on a daily basis for the vacancies posted by companies via job portals and advertisements in the national and regional dailies, journals and newspaper. Data is tracked for 60 cities and 30 sectors that are offering job opportunities in India. ASSOCHAM Financial Pulse (AFP) as an analytical tool tracks quarterly financial performance of India Inc; forming strong inter-linkages with the real economy and presents sectoral insights and outlook based on financial indicators, demand signals and corporate dividend activity. research@assocham.com 16

17 THE KNOWLEDGE CHAMBER Evolution of Value Creator ASSOCHAM initiated its endeavor of value creation for Indian industry in It has witnessed upswings as well as upheaval of Indian Economy and contributed significantly by playing a catalytic role in shaping up the Trade, Commerce and Industrial environment of the country. ASSOCHAM derives its strength from the following Promoter Chambers: Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mumbai; Cochin Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Cochin; Indian Merchant's Chamber, Mumbai; The Madras Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Chennai; PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi. VISION Empower Indian enterprise by inculcating knowledge that will be the catalyst of growth in the barrier less technology driven global market and help them upscale, align and emerge as formidable player in respective business segment MISSION As representative organ of Corporate India, ASSOCHAM articulates the genuine, legitimate needs and interests of its members. Its mission is to impact the policy and legislative environment so as to foster balanced economic industrial and social development. We believe education, health, agriculture and environment to be the critical success factors. GOALS To ensure that the voice and concerns of ASSOCHAM are taken note of by policy makers and legislators. To be proactive on policy initiatives those are in consonance with our mission. To strengthen the network of relationships of national and international levels/forums. To develop learning organization, sensitive to the development needs and concerns of its members. To broad-base membership. Knowledge sets the pace for growth by exceeding the expectation, and blends the wisdom of the old with the needs of the present. 17