LIBYA Private Sector Development (PSD) Workshop Restructuring the Libyan Economy in Light of the New Role of the State and the Private Sector

Transcription

1 LIBYA Private Sector Development (PSD) Workshop Restructuring the Libyan Economy in Light of the New Role of the State and the Private Sector The Tunisian Experience Marouane El Abassi EPD General Coordinator Worldbank CORINTHIA HOTEL April 2008

2 Libya in the Global Market

3 Where will employment come from? Unemployment is high, particularly among the young. Including disguised it is thought to be at least 30%... Estimates indicate that the government employs up to 70% of all salaried Libyans. Since 2000 the government wage bill has risen by almost 50%, mostly as a result of the increasing numbers employed by the state, rather than a rise in wage levels. Subsidies, which between 2000 and 2005 are estimated to have risen more than sixfold, made up for the lack of wage rises. Recent initiatives to reduce the number of civil servants (estimated at over 1 million) are likely to affect up to 400,000 workers. [EIU]

4 Libya enjoys a favorable trade balance with its leading trade partners.

5 By most measures, Libya already has sufficient exports.

6 Libya s exports are almost entirely centered on energy. In 2006 the hydrocarbons sector contributed an estimated 98% of export earnings and 93% of government receipts, and constituted an estimated 79% of nominal GDP. Since the lifting of sanctions, the oil sector has expanded at a rapid rate in 2000 its share of GDP was just 39%. As a result, the contribution of both manufacturing and agriculture has fallen over the same period, from 5% and 8.1% of GDP in 2000, to an estimated 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively, in [Economist Economic Intelligence Unit]

7 Given its high per capita GDP, Libya is unlikely to compete in manufactured exports except in niche and energy related sectors. Comparative economic indicators, 2006 Libya a Algeria a Tunisia b Egypt b Morocco a GDP (US$ bn) GDP per head (US$) 7,605 3,356 2,924 a 1,430 a 1,980 GDP per head (US$ at PPP) 14,548 6,156 8,515 a 4,800 a 5,114 This suggests that diversification and employment are more likely to be found in nontradables and services.

8 Much progress on trade, yet much more to do. Important tariff reforms. For example, in 2004, the maximum tariff rate was reduced in 2004 to 100% and the average rate came down to just under 18%. However, the process for Libya to join the WTO is likely to be lengthy, not least because many changes will need to be made in the areas of taxation, tariffs and regulations. The process will also require the Libyan authorities to introduce far greater transparency, initially simply to provide sufficient information to support Libya's application negotiations, but eventually to satisfy WTO information requirements as an eventual member. EIU (2008):

9 Benefits of liberalizing services under WTO: a vital tool in economic growth and development The impressive results we have seen in 10 years of opening telecommunications markets shows how crucial liberalizing services trade can be for economies. Since the results came into force ten years ago this month, global access to telecommunications has increased from below 15 percent in 1996 to above 60 percent in 2006, and revenues have risen from US$620 billion to US$1.4 trillion during the same period. Telecommunications are an essential prerequisite for a wide range of economic activities in any national economy, developing or developed, from agriculture, travel and tourism to mining and manufacturing. Opening telecommunications has been a win win game, said WTO Director General Pascal Lamy (Feb. 20, 2008).

10 THE TUNISIAN EXPERIENCE

11 The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development Goals The Economic Policy mainly included: Increasing Exports Promoting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) The implementation of incentive policies for the fully exporting firms The protection of the partially exporting firms

12 The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development Goals Scarcity of Natural Resources Limited Domestic Markets Promoting Private Investment Developing Exports Maintaining a Sustainable Economic Growth

13 The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development Goals Since 1990 Tunisia s s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) Tunisia-European Union (EU) Association Agreement Several other regional and international agreements Preserving and developing Tunisia s s share in the international markets Helping firms enhancing their competiveness

14 The Importance of Trade Policy in Achieving Export Development Goals Since 1990 The Economy of Tunisia relied on several measures: The Mise à Niveau Program The Export Development Project I and II The Quality Program The Industrial Sector Improvement Project

15 The Tunisian economy failed to overcome some challenges The participation of domestic private investment in the GDP during the last decade is low (13% - 14%) compared to that of some economies with high GDP growth rate (20% - 25%) The textile and apparel sector which is considered to be the leader in total exports (40%) as well as in employment ( employees), is facing fierce competition based on low-cost from East Asian economies especially after the dismantling of the multi-fiber agreement The limitation of this sector in creating additional jobs and opportunities for further economic development

16 The Tunisian economy failed to overcome some challenges The Tunisian exports are concentrated in some markets and including only a limited variety of products. Besides, tourism and travel services participate by 80% in total export of services The continuous increase of the TBT for the most important international markets is a big challenge facing the Tunisian exporting firms

17 The Tunisian economy failed to overcome some challenges The continuous slight increase in the unemployment rate as well as the change in the structure of unemployment due to the increase of university graduates seeking for jobs The failure of the specialization model adopted by the Tunisian economy to meet the university graduates job demand

18 THE EXPORT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

19 PDE APPROACH 1 By helping the exporting firms to explore new markets 2 By helping the non exporting firms to export 3 By facilitating foreign trade procedures 09/05/

20 PDE APPROACH EXPORTING FIRMS NEEDS Information concerning overseas markets: Standards, TBT Prospecting, financial support, technical support, Before exporting guarantee and financing processes information TBT Project Alerts Export FAMEX /EMAF DHAMEN finance 09/05/

21 PDE APPROACH FACILITATING FOREIGN TRADE PROCEDURES Better integration of inspection procedures and emphasizing risk management measures Direction de la Qualité et de la Protection du Consommateur Customs procedures simplification and encouraging their respect Direction Générale des Douanes Indicators of trade logistics performance Direction Générale du Commerce Extérieur 09/05/

22 PDE APPROCH EXPORTING WELL IMPORTING WELL SUPPLY CHAIN FACILITATING FOREIGN TRADE PROCEDURES 09/05/

23 PDE APPROCH HOW THE EPD COULD HELP LOCAL FIRM IMPORT`S LEVEL 09/05/

24 CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT The offshore regime aiming at easing exchange flows, particularly import flows In the wake of trade liberalization, the onshore regime has been facing problems related to importing procedures Facilitating Foreign Trade procedures began with PDE1 ( ): 2004): Single window TTN Optimization of customs procedures 09/05/

25 CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT PDE 2 ( ): Selectivity Dematerialization of Foreign Trade procedures Providing a network for administrations loaded with inspection Optimization of risk management procedures (customs, inspection and INORPI) Information on standards and on line payments 09/05/

26 CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT SELECTIVITY By the end of the project,, 80% of the goods will be conducted through the Green Corridor 09/05/

27 CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT DELAYS REDUCTION Stay of the good in the port 9 jours Reduction of average time of goods stay in the port (9 to 3 days) ) [6.7 d in 2007] Duration of customs clearance 3 jours Reduction of customs clearance time 0.5 days by the end of the project [0.8 d en 2007] 09/05/

28 CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT DEMATERIALISATION OF PROCEDURES NETWORKING: All of administrations loaded with inspection 09/05/

29 CONTRIBUTION: IMPORT INFORMATION PROVIDED FOR ECONOMIC AGENTS Digital data base about inspection procedures laws Information about Technical Barriers to Trade Normative Surveillance System 09/05/

30 CONTRIBUTIONS: IMPORT REPORTS Tunisian firms: less transactions cost, more competitiveness The decrease of goods transition explained by a better optimization tion of the harbour zones. Effective procedures are generally transformed into a better optimization of purchases and a decline of the costs of storage. Implementation of a trade logistic component piloted by the DGCE aiming at developing project performance indicators. 09/05/

31 APPROCHE PDE HOW the EXPORT PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT COULD HELP AN EXPORT FIRM 09/05/

32 CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORT PROSPECTING AND ACCESS TO OVERSEAS MARKETS Firm looking for exporting opportunities PROBLEMS 09/05/

33 CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTS PROSPECTING AND ACCESS TO OVERSEAS MARKETS Access to specialized consultance service Exporting Strategy The firm is inclined to pay for a good quality service To Position the firm on long term basis on the international market 09/05/

34 CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORT TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE A FIRM FINDS A FOREIGN MARKET PROBLEMS Lack of information about the requirements of the overseas markets Overseas markets are becoming more and more demanding: standards, high quality products, norms Technical Barriers to Trade 09/05/

35 CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORT TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE Alerts Export Service Information about Technical Barriers to Trade Normative Surveillance Strengthen the capacity of the Tunisian administration to give to t operators the information about the standards and the technical regulations that could be found within the international markets 09/05/

36 CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORT PREFINANCING OF THE EXPORTS Exporting Opportunity Banking system services Financing the Working Capital problem unhealthy situation guarantees requirements for the bank 09/05/

37 CONTRIBUTIONS: EXPORTS TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE Fonds de Garantie de Financement des Exportations Avant Expédition Intervenes by granting the certificate of guarantee to 90 % of the amount and at the level of DT Creates a reliable relation between banks & exporters 09/05/

38 PDE APPROACH Main Achievements 09/05/

39 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS FAMEX firms having established exporting plans: 460 finalized their exporting plans 192 in progress 25 consortia having established exporting plans: 13 finalized their exporting plans 12 in progress Setting up abroad: about fifty setting ups in more than 15 countries Additional Exports: more than 200 MD on 70 countries for a subsidy of about 12 MD: 1 DT of subsidy generates 17 DT of additional exports More than 150 MD of additional exports (75%) registered outside the four traditional markets 09/05/

40 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS FAMEX 2 SECTOR BASED DISTRIBUTION OF FAMEXED FIRMS 09/05/

41 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS DHAMEN FINANCE SECTOR BASED DISTRIBUTION OF GRANTED LOANS Amount of granted loans 7,189 MDT 71 exporting transactions realized by 29 entreprises Additional exports: 17,999 MDT (en 2007) 09/05/

42 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS PNI TBT : Interface between devices? And? services to firms? Other countries WTO Announcements and projects (standards and regulations) Tunisian authorities WTO Min. Trade D G Cooperation PNI TBT STANDARDS INNORPI PNI TBT SPS Min. Farming PNI TBT Other regulations DQPC other sources of information about the standards and the international technical rules Catalogs, CD Rom, Internet, Point National d Information «PNI Services to firms» (Opérateur du Ministère du Commerce) Data Base of Tunisian Norms Data Base Tunisian technical rules Tunisian exporting firms Other Tunisan institutions Inquiries (other countries) 09/05/

43 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS IMPROVEMENTS AND INTEGRATION OF THE PROCEDURES OF INSPECTION Project of reengineering of the procedures of inspections in the import (50% achievement) Dematerialization of the procedures of inspections: DQPC: 100% of files are treated via TTN since the beginning of 2007 Objective: 100% of inspections files, all administrations included, by the end of 2008 Évolution en pourcentage du traitement électronique des dossiers au niveau de la DQPC (janvier 2006 Juillet 2OO7) 09/05/

44 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS INDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE Time Release Study in Rades Port ( ) 09/05/

45 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS INDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE Contribution of every phase in the global procedure of goods customs clearance (2007) 09/05/

46 MAIN ACHIEVMENTS INDICATORS OF TRADE LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE Evolution of the distribution of declarations on corridors (2007) 09/05/

47 MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS INFORMATION SYSTEM Display of the components. Management of the project participants. Control and management of the signings of markets. States of progress of the project. Management of the payment of signing of markets. Publishing of financial follow up reports. Elaboration of follow up statistics. Publishing of follow ups reports. Management of the internal documents. Management of the internal mails. Alarms System: actions while signing. Surveillance system: actions that were not planned. 09/05/

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