India Rising: PM Narendra Modi s Platform for Change OUR POINT OF VIEW INDIA RISING INDIA BRAZIL CHINA MALAYSIA
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1 India Rising: PM Narendra Modi s Platform for Change OUR POINT OF VIEW INDIA BRAZIL CHINA MALAYSIA INDIA RISING
2 INTRODUCTION Over a year has passed since Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janta Party s (BJP) landmark victory in the 2014 Indian General Election. The nature of Modi s victory signalled a paradigm shift in the manner in which India is governed, for the first time in over 20 years a single party had won a large enough majority at the polls to govern without the constraints of having to appease coalition partners. Narendra Modi and the BJP were elected on the back of promises to lead India forwards into the 21st century and spark the faltering economy back into life. The previous coalition government, led by the Congress party, had seen India s rapid economic growth stagnate and slide to a worrying growth rate of 5.3%. Whilst western markets would applaud such growth rates, for a country with lofty ambitions, this rate is simply not good enough. Double-digit growth is India s benchmark. Many voted for Narendra Modi on the back of his strong leadership of the state of Gujarat, where he presided over 10 years of double-digit growth and helped the state become one of India s leading economic powerhouses, especially in the automotive sector. By laying out the red carpet and slashing red tape for companies like Ford and Tata Motors, Narendra Modi fostered a sense, amongst both the domestic and international business community, of being a leader capable of attracting large-scale inward investment through ease of access in a country renowned for its pain-staking bureaucracy. Now that the Modi government has been in power for almost a year and a half, this report seeks to highlight key areas in which Modi and his government have achieved success in creating a viable market for foreign investment. SIGNIFICANT REFORMS Modi s first year in power can draw a lot of similarities to Obama s first tenure as President; a lot of big ideas for reform end up being choked or gridlocked in the lower chambers of the legislature, despite the party dominating the house. Irrespective, Narendra Modi and his cabinet have begun to make incremental changes to India s business climate helping to inspire investor confidence once again in the India growth story. Infrastructure One key aspect that often holds foreign companies back from investing in India is the lack of world-class infrastructure. India is ranked 85th out of 148 countries for its infrastructure according to the World Economic Forum, a figure that Modi and his government are keen to tackle. According to Credit Suisse, government spending on highways is expected to amount to 720 billion rupees (approx. $11 billion) by next March. Spending on highways in the current fiscal year is expected to reach $15 billion, twice that which was spent in the previous year. Through encouraging figures like these, investors into India should be very optimistic that Modi and the BJP-led government are attempting to create an environment much more conducive to foreign companies by putting issues such as worries around lack of road infrastructures at ease. When looking at Modi s time in charge of Gujarat, we can clearly see that he was pragmatic in acknowledging that, before you can lay down the red-carpet for inward investment, you first must tackle basic issues such as infrastructure. Modi made sure that Gujarat was supplied with a continuous power supply, something that is taken for granted elsewhere in the world, and ensured that a world-class road network was developed in the state.
3 FDI and Manufacturing One of the flagship policies introduced in Narendra Modi s first budget was the hiking of FDI caps in a variety of sectors ranging from the railways through to defence and even in the insurance sector. Foreign companies can now invest up to 100% into the construction, maintenance and operation of suburban rail corridors providing a vast array of opportunities for both foreign investors and foreign companies, whether that be in the sale of technology through to the setting up of operations in the railway sector. Defence companies, which have in the past been held at a cap of 26% of direct investment into the sector, can now look to invest up to a cap of 49% and on a case-by-case basis this can be increased even to 100% provided that there is a knowledge transfer. This provides huge opportunities for defence technology firms and manufacturers, as India is the world s leading importer of arms. Narendra Modi, as part of his flagship Make in India campaign, whereby the government is hoping to create a booming indigenous manufacturing industry, is hoping that through hiking FDI caps in sectors like defence, he can create synergy with his other policies such as the Make in India campaign and give the stimulus to the economy he has promised and at the same time creating the employment opportunities he also campaigned upon. Companies such as Boeing and Airbus, two of the world s leading defence firms have expressed an interest already in establishing manufacturing facilities in the country. Taxation A flagship policy proposed by Modi and his Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to be introduced, hopefully, by the start of the next financial year is the long awaited implementation of the Goods and Services Tax. India s taxation system is often cited as a major concern by foreign companies looking to do business in the country, with each state having its own levies upon both goods and services, creating a massive headache for investors. Navigating this complex system can cause huge delays in business and the introduction of a singular, nationwide Goods and Services Tax will ease the nature of doing business in India, providing a much more streamlined and slick system conducive to a booming economic environment. Arun Jaitley has underlined the current government s commitment to implementing the Goods and Services Tax, which will be the 122nd amendment to the constitution, by stating that the government will use every alternative mechanism to pass it so that the flagship policy can be rolled out by April, Foreign Policy Perhaps where Narendra Modi has excelled in the early stages of his governance is through his showman like performances around the globe, rallying support for foreign investment into India. Modi is greeted with the red carpet treatment and countless world leaders are clambering to increase bilateral ties with India. Key players hold Narendra Modi in high regard, from President Obama of the US to the President of China Xi Jingping. State visits to China and Japan, where Modi enjoys a close relationship with the leader Shinzo Abe, saw the signing of investment deals worth $22 billion and $35 billion respectively to the Indian economy. Defence deals with Israel have grown exponentially as Modi seeks to sign bilateral agreements around the globe and indeed across the political spectrum, highlighting the leader s commitment to encouraging investment and underlining the confidence he seeks to inspire from big business and his determination to kick-start the India growth story once again.
4 What The Future Holds Critics have pointed to a lack of big bang reforms in Modi s first two budgets since being elected but we must take into account a variety of factors when judging the success of the government in revitalising the economy. Firstly, although Narendra Modi and the BJP enjoy a majority in the Lok Sabha, or lower chamber (equivalent to the House of Commons), they do not have a majority in the Rajya Sabha, the upper chamber. In fact Congress dominates the upper chamber, where they hold 68 seats compared to the BJP s 44 allowing them to block bills that have been passed in the Lok Sabha creating what is known as gridlock. Secondly, India is a vast country with a population of just over a billion people and made up of 29 states and 7 union territories each with their own legislative chamber. Enacting big bang reforms takes careful negotiation amongst this myriad of states and territories, something that most certainly can t be done in just one year. Given time and perhaps even a second term there is much evidence to support and show that the Narendra Modi government can be a massive green light for companies seeking to enter this emerging market which has boundless potential. Comparison of Manmohan Singh s final year as Prime Minister compared with Narendra Modi s first year as leader It is apparent that under Modi, the Indian economy is performing at a much improved rate than the previous Prime Minister, although this can perhaps be down to the huge boost that India s stock exchange, the SENSEX, received on his victory in May Singh vs Modi How has Narendra Modi done in his first year as India s prime minister compared with Manmohan Singh in his last year in the office? Manmohan Singh Narendra Modi For the year ended March 31, 2014 UP p DOWN q For the year ended March 31, % p 8.33% p 9.4% q 18.7% p 6.0% q 0.1% q 4.7% p 4.2% p 10.3% 4.4% $20.8 billion $2.6 billion GDP growth Consumer inflation* Rupee's move against dollar Sensex Index performance Car sales growth Industrial production growth Exports growth Foreign exchange reserves growth Home loan rate** Fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP Foreign direct investment growth*** Government company stake sales p 7.4% p 4.87% q 4.2% p 24.6% p 3.9% p 2.8% q 1.2% p 12.3% 9.9% 4.0% $28.8 billion $3.9 billion *Inflation numbers are May 2014 vs April 2015 **Numbers for May 2014 vs May 2015 *** FDI numbers are for the eleven months ended February 2014 and 2015 Table is courtesy of the Wall Street Journal. Sources: Government of India, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, HDFC staff reports Photos: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images (Singh); Reuters (Modi)
5 Markers of success Through important initiatives enacted by the government and the confidence they have inspired in investors, there has been a revival in the India growth story. Data from the Centre for Strategic International Studies shows that bilateral trade between India and the US has risen by 4% and that FDI has jumped by 40%. This is a clear indicator that Modi s initiatives, combined with his remarkable performance with regards to India s foreign relations, has had a concrete effect in improving the Indian economy. CONCLUSION Whilst the first two budgets of the Narendra Modi led government has not seen the remarkable transformation of the Indian economy that many hoped it would have achieved by now, it is important to look back at this first 18 months not as a failure or a disappointment, but rather a stepping stone to further success.
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