UK s Offshore Transmission Regime:

Transcription

1 UK s Offshore Transmission Regime: A case study for financing a low carbon future Stephanie McGregor Director Offshore Transmission June 2011

2 Today s presentation 1. Big picture 2. The OFTO 3. Making the opportunity real (aka fundable) 4. Opportunities/challenges ahead All you can see in 30 mins!

3 Critical developments & debates Electricity Market Reform Climate change targets Retail Market Review RO review EU Renewable Energy Directive European Intergration Significant challenges ahead

4 grand ambitions UK energy policy aspirations: Meeting the 2020 Renewable energy commitment; Decarbonisation of electricity by 2030; 2050 carbon pathways; Marine renewable generation potentially up to 67GW installed by 2030; Nuclear could have a significant role in decarbonisation. This will require significant new transmission infrastructure. Similar aspirations across Europe

5 .and a universal challenge for a low carbon future

6 .securing investment! Estimates - 200bn + Capital markets fragile Market players seeking certainty (investors, funders, developers, operators, suppliers.) Challenges & opportunities ahead Xx

7 OFTO regime Implementing a model which is...attracting/delivering investment

8 What is the OFTO opportunity? Offshore Transmission Owner (OFTO) So what is an OFTO again? How do we select an OFTO? An entity licensed to provide transmission services The owner and operator of the assets relevant to provide the transmission services How does the OFTO licence work? Market activity to date Xx

9 What is an OFTO (2)? Onshore TO Offshore Transmission Owner (OFTO) Licencee Generator Connection to onshore network Onshore Substation Offshore Substation Platform Subsea cable 132 kv 33 kv Inter Array Cables

10 How do we appoint an OFTO? Developer project qualified by Ofgem financial commitment detailed data provision Ofgem run a competitive process - defined stages & requirements Project specific & revenue (20 year) based bidding Identified project, known transfer value & clear licence obligations Accessible to range of funding approaches Pre-qualification (PQ) Pass/fail Long list of bidders Qualification to Tender (QTT) Scored Short list of 3-5 bidders Invitation to tender (ITT) Scored Preferred Bidder & Successful Bidder Licence Grant

11 The OFTO Licence - how does it work? OFTOs are required to: 1. Obligations achieve the broad obligation to operate assets in line with industry best practice to minimise the effect and duration of any transmission outage report details of any service reduction over 21 days provide written statement of compliance with best practice if availability below 75% in a year or 80% over two years This creates an obligation to repair assets If does not comply, enforcement action could be significant - licence revocation

12 OFTO Licence - how does it work? 2. Incentives Not to compensate generator for lost revenue disproportionate Incentive designed to encourage behaviour to maintain availability OFTO faces reduced revenue if it fails to meet availability target Incentive significantly reduces equity returns in case of major outage does not put OFTO at risk of breaking minimum cover ratios Design Availability target set at 98% Revenue uplift for good performance Monthly weighting 50% of OFTO revenue is at risk for performance below the target in a year Revenue impact is spread over five years Xx

13 OFTO Licence - how does it work? 3. Enforcement Authority can take enforcement action against licensees that: Contravene licence conditions Are likely to contravene licence conditions Enforcement actions can include: Enforcement orders Fines Licence revocation Therefore up to 100% of revenue is at risk!

14 Making the opportunity real (aka fundable) Clear commercial & regulatory structure Transparent & clear process Accessible to different funding approaches Project pipeline KEY = CERTAINTY

15 Commercial & regulatory structure O&M Contract Government Consents Code s NETSO OFTO Transmissio n Licence Licence Ofgem Lease Sale & Purchase Agreement Crown Estate Offshore Generator Lease Generation Licence

16 Key investment features Attractive investment sector Robust new regulatory regime Strong UK political & regulatory support Rare opportunity for new entrants to UK transmission sector Relatively low risk asset class 20 year revenue stream with limited regulatory intervention Pass through of certain key costs OFTO protected from wind farm operating risk & risk of stranding Upside potential: opex, non-regulated services, increased capacity Transparent competitive process Well defined tender process, Structured to ensure level playing field & transparency 2 qualification stages followed by ITT stage with M&A data rooms Long term opportunity A number of phases over several years: potentially 15 bn of assets Early participation will provide valuable experience Enduring regime offers design & construction opportunities

17 Project pipeline Linked to Crown Estates R1, R2 & R3 Zones Early tender rounds transitional rounds (TR1, 2a & 2b) Under enduring regime it will be developer/generator requirements & choices that influence timing & model for opportunities come to market. Enduring regime = generator choice of generator build or ofto build. Extensive engagement with generation developers on developing plans

18 OFTO pipeline Final Consultation Go-Active First Transitional Tender Process ( 1bn+) Cumulative UK Offshore Wind Capacity (GW) 15 Go-Live 10 2nd Transitional Tender (up to 2bn+) 5 Enduring Regime Tender Process ( 12bn+) 0

19 Tender Round 1 Project Robin Rigg (FC/Licensed March 11) G.Sands (S.8A con closed June 11) Barrow Ormonde Preferred Bidder/OFTO Transmission Capital Partners (TCP) Thanet Balfour Beatty Walney 1 Walney 2 Macquarie Sheringham Shoal Greater Gabbard Green Energy Transmission (Equitix, Balfour Beatty, AMP) Value = 1.1bn & circa 2GW Savings forecasts positive

20 Tender Round 2 Humber Gateway (300MW 218m) Race Bank (up to 620MW c. 500m) West of Duddon Sands (389MW 255m) Lincs (250MW 311m) Gwynt-y-Mor (576MW 306m) Tranche 2a Projects (1.5GW & 975m est. value) TR2a bidders: TCP Blue Transmission (Macquarie/Mitsubishi ) Green Energy Transmission (Balfour Beatty & Equitix) National Grid Offshore Ltd London Array (630MW 476m) Expected Tranche 2b Projects (1.3GW & 1m+ est. value)

21 Opportunities & challenges ahead Rapid market development Moving into the enduring regime generator choices Co-ordination enhancement Wider policy landscape

22 Market development Market evolving rapidly on bidder & developer sides Interest strong to date Bidder/consortium configurations evolving Market awareness & understanding increasing, breadth & depth in growing phase bidders & generators Particular interest in larger asset opportunities interest expressed from potential future new entrants Bidder/partnering approach may need to evolve for enduring depending on how projects come to market Understanding of technology options, innovations & constraints

23 Coordinated offshore transmission development Ofgem/DECC announced coordination workstream in August 2010 to focus on opportunities for enhancing co-ordination within the offshore transmission regime Offshore Transmission Coordination Advisory Group (OTCG) established & work underway with inputs from Stakeholder Community Ofgem/DECC conclusions to be informed by a range of evidence & analysis Assessment of options which emerge will relate to how they perform against Ofgem & Government objectives & statutory obligations Any proposals that are set out in our conclusions report would be subject to public consultation

24 and there are major challenges ahead Investment challenge: Significant capital requirement billion+ over the next decade to meet our aspirations; Capital markets fragile; Investors need certainty and stability Impact on developers? Impact on supply chain? Future still very uncertain: Political uncertainty eg impact of EMR proposals; Scale and timing of onshore development what role will nuclear play; Scale and timing of offshore development ODIS scenarios has a broad range 25-67GW. Network development: Long lead time to deliver new capacity; Supply chain readiness volume of new tech. What is the appropriate network configuration?

25 5 THANK YOU