The Shipping Corporation of India

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1 FPO Note November 30, 2010 The Shipping Corporation of India SECTOR: SHIPPING CMP: SENSEX: Subscribe Issue Snapshot Issue Open: Issue Close: 30-Nov-10 3-Dec-10 Price Band (Rs) Issue Size (Rs Mn) Market Cap (Rs Mn) Rs Rs Rs Rs Issue Size (No. of Shares) 84,690,730 Capital Structure: Employee Reservation Portion: 423,454 QIB: 42,133,638 Non-Institutional: 12,640,091 Retail: 29,493,547 Face Value (Rs): 10 Book Value as of FY10 (Rs): Pre Issue Equity (Rs Mn) 4,234.5 Post Issue Equity (Rs Mn) 4,658.0 Shareholding Pattern Pre Issue (%) Post issue (%) Promoter (Govt.of India) 80.1% 63.7% Mutual fund,fii holding & others 15.5% 14.1% Public 4.4% 22.2% Total 100% 100% Total Shares 423,453, ,799,010 Key Data BSE Code BSE Listing group NSE Code Bloomberg Code Reuters Code A SCI SCI IN SCI BO 52 Week H/L /139 2 Week Avg. Qty. BSE 1.11 lakh Shipping Corporation of India Limited (SCIL) incorporated in 1950, is one of India s largest shipping companies with approximately 35% share of Indian flagged tonnage. The company has been conferred the Navratna status by the Government. As of October 31, 2010, SCIL owned a fleet of 77 vessels of 5.37 million dead weight tonnage (DWT). In addition, as of October 31, 2010, SCIL managed 62 vessels of 0.22 million DWT on behalf of Government agencies, public sector undertakings, and joint ventures. Objects of Issue: Company intends to deploy the proceeds of the Net Issue for funding acquisition of certain vessels at the cost of Rs mn. & meeting General Corporate Expenses. Investment Rationale Leadership Position in Indian Shipping Sector SCIL is one of India s largest shipping companies with approximately 35% share of Indian flagged tonnage. As of October 31, 2010, SCIL owned a fleet of 77 vessels of 5.37 million dead weight tonnage (DWT). Diversified Fleet SCIL own a variety of technologically-advanced vessels including bulk carriers, VLCCs, crude oil tankers, product tankers, container vessels, passenger-cum-cargo vessels, phosphoric acid and chemical carriers, LPG and ammonia carriers, and offshore supply vessels. Improving & Optimizing Fleet Mix The Company in order to improve & optimize its fleet mix has 26 vessels on order to be delivered over the course of the next three years increasing its total DWT from 5.37million to 6.83million. Service Expansion through Strategic Alliances As a part of SCIL s strategy to integrate forwards it has entered into a JV with three Japanese shipping companies for transportation of LNG becoming the 1 st Indian shipping company to participate in transportation of LNG. Growth via Energy-Related Transportation Annual growth rate in India s demand for coal and production of coal, during the Government s 11th five year plan is projected at 9.0% and 7.9%, respectively, posing well for the energy related transportation activities of the company. Valuation & Recommendation On the post issue FY10 earnings per share, the shares are offered at a P/E of 16.9x and 16.3x on upper and lower band respectively which looks expensive when compared with the Great Eastern Shipping Company trading at a P/E of 11.2x. We recommend Subscribe at the lower price band with a long term investment perspective. Manas Majumdar manas.majumdar@spagroupindia.com

2 Investment Rationale Leadership Position in Indian Shipping Sector As of October 31, 2010, SCIL owned a fleet of 77 vessels of 5.37 million dead weight tonnage (DWT). CSIL has further ordered construction of 26 vessels, which is expected to be delivered between the year ended 2010 and The acquisition of four of such vessels will be funded through the Net Proceeds of the Issue. Diversified Fleet As of October 31, 2010, SCIL s fleet included 18 dry bulk carriers of 781,777 DWT, 4 very large crude carrier (VLCCs) of 1,274,175 DWT, 18 crude oil tankers of 2,081,003 DWT, 15 product tankers of 877,726 DWT, 10 offshore supply vessels of 17,904 DWT, 10 container vessels of 202,413 DWT, 3 phosphoric acid and chemical carriers of 99,174 DWT, 2 gas carriers of 35,202 DWT, and 2 passenger-cum-cargo vessels of 5,303 DWT. The bulk carrier and tanker division contributed 68.43% while Liner & Passenger Service contributed 21.37% of the total operating income in FY10. Strategic Joint Ventures SCIL has entered into two joint ventures for the transportation of LNG with three Japanese shipping lines, namely, Mitsui OSK Lines Limited, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Limited and a third joint venture with the same Japanese shipping lines and Qatar Shipping Company. Its joint venture with SAIL provides for various shipping related services by to SAIL for importing coking coal and also to participate in world-wide dry bulk-shipping trade, handling of import and export cargo including containers. The company has also entered into joint venture agreements with Forbes Gokak Limited and Sterling Investments Corporation Private Limited, which owns and operates chemical tankers. They have also formed a joint venture entity, Irano-Hind Shipping Company Limited pursuant to a joint venture agreement with Arya National Shipping Lines. Joint Venture Company % Interest as of Oct,2010 Irano-Hind Shipping Co. Ltd 49% India LNG Transport Co. (No. 1) Ltd 29% India LNG Transport Co. (No. 2) Ltd 29% India LNG Transport Co. (No. 3) Ltd 26% SCI Forbes Ltd 50% SAIL SCI Shipping Private Ltd 50% Focus on Energy Related Transportation According to Planning Commission, the annual growth rate in India s demand for coal and production of coal, during the Government s 11 th five year plan is projected at 9.0% and 7.9%, respectively. SCIL intends to take advantage of these growth opportunities by employing its vessels for the transportation of coal and oil. It intends to increase its participation in these markets through direct capital investment and by entering into strategic alliances with established and significant industry participants. Improving & Optimizing its Fleet Mix SCIL has 26 vessels on order to be delivered over the course of the next three years. These vessels include Aframax tankers and Large Range tankers, AHTSVs, platform supply vessels, Handymax bulk carriers, Panamax bulk carries and Kamsarmax bulk carriers. The additional vessels they have on order are expected to allow it to increase its total DWT from 5.37 million to 6.83 million. Current Fleet on Order Type of vessel No. Total DWT Scheduled Date of Delivery Aframax Tanker January 2011 to March 2011 (115,000 DWT each) Large Range II Tanker ,000 November 2010 AHTSV (80 ton bollard pull) January 2011 to July 2011 AHTSV (120 ton bollard pull) March 2011 to June 2011 Platform Supply Vessel September 2011 to December 2011 Handymax Bulk Carriers August 2011 to March 2012 (57,400 DWT each) Panamax Bulk Carrier June 2012 to September 2012 (80,655 DWT each) Kamsarmax Bulk Carrier November 2012 to July 2013 (82,000 DWT each) Total 26 1,463,080 Financial Performance Operating Income stood at Rs. 37,390mn, Rs. 41,668mn, Rs. 34,604mn for FY 2008, 2009, Adjusted Profit stood at Rs. 7,546mn, Rs. 9,626mn, Rs. 3,867mn for FY 2008, 2009,

3 Company Background SCIL was incorporated as Eastern Shipping Corporation Limited on March 24, The Government bestowed the status of Navratna on the Company in August Its existing business operations are divided into the following three divisions: (1) bulk carrier and tanker, (2) liner and passenger services, and (3) technical and offshore services. Six Handymax bulk carriers of total 344,400 DWT. Four Panamax bulk carriers of total 322,620 DWT. Four Kamsarmax bulk carriers of total 328,000 DWT. Tankers are specially designed to transport large quantities of liquid cargo, such as oil and other petroleum products. Its tanker fleet is approximately nine years old on average with age of individual vessel ranging from 1 to 32 years. SCIL intends to expand its tanker fleet by adding the following vessels which are are expected to be delivered between 2010 and 2011: Three Aframax tankers of total 345,000 DWT. One Large Range-II tanker of 105,000 DWT. Liner & Passenger Services SCIL s liner division has two segments, the containership and breakbulk services. The liner division accounted for 20.3%, 18.09%, 21.37% and 27.56% of its total income for Fiscal Years 2008, 2009, 2010 and the six-month period ending September 30, 2010, respectively. As of October 31, 2010, SCIL had five service routes with port stops in the Indian Far-East, Indian Subcontinent, Europe, the Middle East and the Mediterranean. VLCCs Crude Oil tankers Product tankers Dry Bulk Container Carriers vessels LPG/Ammonia Carriers Offshore supply No % of total fleet 5.19% 23.38% 19.48% 23.38% 6.49% 3.90% 2.60% 12.99% 2.60% % % of total DWT 23.71% 38.72% 16.33% 14.55% 3.76% 1.85% 0.65% 0.33% 0.10% % Total DWT 1,274,175 2,081, , , ,413 99,174 35,202 17,904 5, mn Acid carriers vessels Passenger Bulk Carriers & Tankers The bulk carrier and tanker division together are the primary income source of the Company, accounting for 71.14%, 71.71%, 68.43% and 62.88% of its total income for Fiscal Years 2008, 2009, 2010 and the sixmonth period ending September 30, 2010, respectively. vessels Total For four of these routes, it has entered into strategic alliances with Mediterranean Shipping Company S.A. (MSC) for India-Subcontinent Europe (ISE) service route servicing Indian Subcontinent and Europe and for India Mediterranean (IMED) service route servicing India and the Mediterranean, and (ii) Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Limited, Pacific International Lines (PTE) Limited and Wan Hai Lines for India Far-East Express 1 (INDFEX-1) and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Limited, Pacific International Lines (PTE) Limited and Wan Hanjin (INDFEX-2) service routes for India Far-East Express 2 (INDFEX 2).international shipping companies. As of October 31, 2010, SCIL had an inventory of approximately 53,000 TEUs of which 5,551 TEUs are owned and the balance is leased. A bulk carrier is a merchant vessel specially designed to transport unpackaged bulk cargo, such as ore, coal, fertilizers, grains and cement. SCIL s bulk carrier fleet is approximately 21 years old on average with the age of an individual vessel ranging from 10 to 24 years. SCIL intends to expand its bulk carrier fleet by adding the following vessels which are are expected to be delivered between 2011 and 2013: Technical & Offshore The technical division s principal responsibilities include vessel acquisition, disposal of vessels and providing technical consultancy services to various organizations. This division monitors fleet and plans for the replacement of existing vessels or the requirement of additional tonnage. SCIL offers vital offshore logistics support services to the Indian oil industry in its oil exploration activities. 3

4 SCIL intends to expand its offshore fleet by adding the following versatile vessels which are expected to be delivered between 2011 and 2012: Four AHTSVs (80 ton bollard pull) of total 8,000 DWT. Two AHTSVs (120 ton bollard pull) of total 3,940 DWT. Two platform supply vessels of total 6,120 DWT. Industry Overview During the past three decades, the annual average growth rate of world seaborne trade is estimated to have been 3.1% per annum. At this rate of growth, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects global seaborne trade to increase by 44% in 2020 and double by 2031, potentially reaching 11.5 billion tonnes and billion tonnes, respectively. (Source: Review of Maritime Transport, 2008, UNCTAD (UNCTAD/RMT/2008)) (Source: Indian Tonnage Statement, June 30, 2010 published by DG Shipping) Tanker Industry As of June 30, 2010, 60% of India s merchant Fleet by DWT is represented by crude oil carriers and the product carriers (Source: Indian Tonnage Statement, June 30, 2010 published by DG Shipping). As of June 30, 2010, the Indian crude tanker fleet stood at 63 vessels aggregating to 5.85 million DWT with an average age of 15 years and average capacity of approximately 93,000 DWT, and the Indian product tanker fleet stood at 70 vessels aggregating to 3.61 million DWT with an average age of 17.6 years and an average capacity of 51,650 DWT (Source: Indian Tonnage Statement, June 30, 2010 published by DG Shipping). Indian Seaborne Trade In 1990, India had 12 Major Ports, and these ports achieved a total throughput of 148 million tonnes per annum, 272 million tonnes per annum and 561 million tonnes per annum in Fiscal Years 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively (Source: Indian Ports Association & National Maritime Development Programme, 2006, Ministry of Shipping). The traffic at Indian ports has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% during the period from 1994 to The Bulk Carrier Industry Traffic at India s major ports has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 8% during the period Coal and iron ore trade volumes have grown at a compound annual growth rate of 7% (Sources: Indian Ports Association). During the 11th Plan, consumption of coal is likely to grow at 9% resulting in total demand in Fiscal Year 2012 of 713 MMTA. The 11th Five Year Plan expects that against an overall coal import of MMTA in the Fiscal Year 2007, total coal imports are likely to reach MMTA by the end of Fiscal Year 2012, accounting for 11.7 per cent of estimated demand. It is also expected that the degree of import dependence will increase and the gap between imports and consumption to be much larger at the end of the 12 th Five Year Plan. 4

5 a growth of 7.2%. (Review of Maritime Transport, 2009, UNCTAD (UNCTAD/RMT/2009), BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010). Key Investment Concerns Difficult operating environment in the Global Shipping Industry has led to fall in the operating income of SCIL from Rs.37390mn in FY08 to Rs.34604mn in FY10. Curtailed oil demand in USA & key European markets have led to sluggish global demand in Tanker segment in the past 15 to 18 months. Indian Container Trade Container cargo traffic at major ports in India has grown at 16.1% CAGR in the last 10 years i.e. from fiscal year 2000 to 2010 (Sources: Indian Ports Association). Container cargo traffic at Indian major ports has on an average grown at 2.9x times the GDP growth rate in India. Valuation & Recommendation On the post issue FY10 earnings per share, the shares are offered at a P/E of 16.9x and 16.3x on upper and lower band respectively which looks expensive when compared with the Great Eastern Shipping Company trading at a P/E of 11.2x. While the new fleet will reflect in operations of FY12 leading to better financial performance, current competitive pressure in shipping industry could limit the upside in the stock valuation for SCIL. We recommend Subscribe at the lower price band with a long term investment perspective. (Source: Indian Ports Association, Ministry of Finance) LNG Carrier Industry The total consumption of Natural Gas in India has grown from 22.6 MMTOE in 1999 to 46.7 MMTOE in 2009 resulting in a CAGR of 7.5% (Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010). As of January 2009, the world LNG carrier fleet stood at 280 vessels. There are 42 vessels in the global order book and 36 vessels are planned for delivery in 2009 and 2010 respectively (Sources: Review of Maritime Transport, 2009, UNCTAD (UNCTAD/RMT/2009)). Contracts in the LNG Carrier Industry Most LNG vessels are subject to long term contracts and are not susceptible to widely varying spot market prices that affect other sectors. Daily charter rates in 2008 were on average in the range of $40,000 - $50,000 (Rs.1,796,800 Rs.2,246,000) per day (Review of Maritime Transport, 2009, UNCTAD (UNCTAD/RMT/2009)). In 2009 the LNG trade has grown to billion cubic meters from billion in 2008 recording 5

6 Financials Balance Sheet (Rs.Mn) As on 31st March As at 30th Income Statement (Rs.Mn) As on 31st March Period ended on FY08 FY09 FY10 Sep,2010 FY08 FY09 FY10 30th Sep,2010 Share Capital Income from Operations Reserves & Surplus Operating Expenditure Net Worth Other Income Borrowed Funds EBIDTA Current Liabilities EBIDTAM% 33% 36% 27% 40% Total Liabilities Depreciation Gross Block Profit before Interest & Tax Less: Depreciation Financial Charges Net Block Profit before Extra-ordinary items Assets under construction & disposal Extra-ordinary items Total Fixed Assets Profit Before Tax Investment Tax Expenses Net Current Assets PAT Total Assets PATM% 20% 23% 11% 24% Cash Flow Statement (Rs.Mn) As on 31st March Period ended on Ratios As on 31st March FY08 FY09 FY10 30th Sep,2010 FY08 FY09 FY10 Cash Flow from Operating Activities Debt to Equity (x) Cash Flow from Investing Activities ROCE (%) 13.1% 13.4% 5.9% Cash Flow from Financing Activities Cash EPS (Rs.) BV/Share (Rs) Net Cash Flow P/BV at 140 (x) Opening Cash RoNW (%) 13.5% 15.5% 6.1% Closing cash EPS (Rs) P/E at 140 (x) EBIDTA Margin (%) 33% 36% 27% PAT Margin (%) 20% 23% 11% *Pre Issue Figures Peers Comparison Company CMP (Rs) M-Cap (Rs Mn) M-Cap/Sales (x) Sales (Rs Mn) EPS (Rs.) P/E (x) BVPS (Rs) P/BV (x) Great Eastern Shipping Company Mercator Lines ltd Varun Shipping Company Essar Shipping Ports & Logistics *EPS and BVPS are calculated using post issue shares 6

7 Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. SPA Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as SPA) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. SPA or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. SPA or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. SPA and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. SPA has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock - No 2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock No 3. Broking relationship with company covered No This information is subject to change without any prior notice. SPA reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time. Nevertheless, SPA is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries. Research Srinivas Reddy Head of Research srinivas.reddy@spagroupindia.com Tel: Ext. 633 SPA Securities Limited SPA House, Nyay Sagar, Near Gurunanak Hospital, Bandra (E), Mumbai , Tel. No. : For More Information Visit Us At SPA CAPITAL SERVICES LIMITED Investment Advisory services, AMFI Reg. No. ARN-0007 SPA MERCHANT BANKERS LTD. SEBI registered Category-1 Merchant Bankers SEBI Regn. No. INM SPA Securities Ltd. Membership SEBI Regn. No. NSE CM & WDM INB NSE F&O INF NSE CD&IRF INE BSE CM & WDM INB BSE CD INE SPA COMTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED Member of NCDEX & MCX. NCDEX TMID , NCDEX FMC no.ncdex/tcm/corp/0714 SPA INSURANCE BROKING SERVICES LTD. Direct Broker for Life and General Insurance broking IRDA Lic. Code No. DB053/03 MCX-SX CD INE OTCEI Cash INB DP CDSL IN-DP-CDSL-485- DP NSDL IN-DP-NSDL-316- SEBI PMS INP

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