TRAIN Tax - Revenue Analysis In Nebraska
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1 TRAIN Tax - Revenue Analysis In Nebraska Presented by: HoaPhu Tran, Ph.D. and Iksoo Cho, Ph.D. Nebraska Department of Revenue 2014 FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference
2 Outline Background and Introduction Structure of TRAIN Government Sector Dynamics of TRAIN Example and result from TRAIN.
3 Background Developed in 1998 to evaluate a tax incentive program (Dr. Cho and Dr. Cushing) An adaptation of DRAM (Dynamic Revenue Analysis Model) constructed by Berck, Golan, and Smith (1996) TRAIN was specifically built to reflect the condition of the Nebraska Economy 2001 updated CGE TRAIN to dynamic version of TRAIN The model is updated every two years with new data
4 Introduction Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) Specialized for the Nebraska economy Contained approximately 1,300 mathematical equations and identities Utilized GAMS for programming the model
5 Structure 1 of 4 Structure of TRAIN Model to describe the interaction of economic agents: Producers Consumers Governments Rest of the world
6 Structure 2 of 4 Structure of TRAIN Basic circular diagram
7 Structure of TRAIN Structure 3 of 4
8 Structure 4 of 4 Structure of TRAIN To describe major features of the Nebraska economy, the TRAIN model divides the Nebraska economy into 74 distinct sectors: 28 Industrial sectors Detailed in food manufacturing and farm machinery 2 Factor sectors Capital and labor Investment sector 9 Household sectors By income level (AGI) 33 Government sectors Rest-of-the-world sector All agents outside of Nebraska
9 Household Sector Household Gross Income Range ($) , ,001 15, ,001 25, ,001 35, ,001 50, ,001 75, , , , ,000 9 Above 150,001
10 Government Sectors Government 1 of 3 Federal
11 Government Sectors State Revenue Government 2 of 3 Note: Inheritance tax ended in 2007
12 Government Sectors State Expenditure Government 3 of 3
13 Dynamics 1 of 2 Dynamics TRAIN Allow the model to trace economic impacts of policy decisions through time The economic growth is in a steady-state path The growth over time through capital accumulation and population increase Investment response to the rate of return; is independent of savings
14 Dynamics TRAIN Dynamics 2 of 2
15 Usage of TRAIN Tax Incentive Analysis Estimating fiscal impacts and jobs created by tax credits Reporting it as a part of an annual report Tax Burden Study Evaluating fiscal and economic impacts of alternative tax policies such as an income tax reduction Examining the shift of tax incidence among agents (sectors)
16 Example: Evaluating Tax Credits Estimating the impacts of an investment tax credit Hypothetical Scenario: $100 million in tax credits per year to selected industry 6 year time frame 2013 to 2018 Base: 2012 Nebraska economy Result for: Impact on state overall tax revenue Impact on state employment Impact on state income level
17 Change in Tax Revenue
18 The Effects on Income and Revenue
19 Change in Employment
20 More Information on Model Description of TRAIN revenue.nebraska.gov/research/ TRAIN_Tech_Doc_7-12.pdf Tax Incentive Analysis revenue.nebraska.gov/incentiv/annrep/13an_rep/ neb_adv/neb_adv_project.html Tax Burden Study revenue.nebraska.gov/research/ 2010TaxBurdenStudy.pdf
21 Questions? Contact: HoaPhu Tran Iksoo Cho
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