Investment Club Fall 2017

Transcription

1 Investment Club Fall 2017 President Sarah Graney Vice President Devon Krapcho Board Member Alyssa Loffredo Board Member Rafa Campos Board Member Niko Martinovic Treasurer Christian Brunner-Lopez Secretary Alex Kruszewski Mentorship Director Steve Nash Mentorship Director Carl Schiro Website Coordinator Lauren Weetman

2 Bloomin Brands Inc. Nasdaq: BLMN Recommendation: Buy Analyst: Sarah Graney September 7, 2017 Source: Google Images

3 Investment Thesis 2017E EPS: $1.39 Target Price: $24 Premium to Consensus: 2% 1 year IRR: 15% Bloomin Brands, Inc. (the Company ) offers an attractive equity investment opportunity driven by: Ø A slow down in restaurant closings in the U.S. following the completion of management s closing of 46 underperforming stores in Q4 16 and Q1 17 and an increase in same store sales Growing loyalty program coupled with take-out and delivery service deliver a Ø Outperformance and continued expansion of the international sector, particularly in China and Brazil where there is a low saturation of chain restaurants 3

4 Domestic Operation s Trending Improvement Improving Outlook Comparable Sales Rebounding Closing underperforming stores in the last two quarter has helped to improve comparable store sales 2017 comparables are above the casual dining index for the first time since 2015 Growth in the franchise business means a growth of top line revenue with little additional cost Franchisees pay $40k upfront for the business then 3.5%-5.75% of gross sales Company-Owned Unit Change Growth in Franchise Business Openings Closings (1) (1) (1) (4) (37) Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Sources: Company filings, Wells Fargo Equity research

5 Delivery Platform as a Driver of SSS Bloomin Delivery Services Delivery services combat a consumer trend of dining at home Currently there are delivery services in 20% of company owned domestic restaurants Management has cited success with the concept thus far and plans to continue adding infrastructure for delivery services at its restaurants The service can also tie in with loyalty programs and provide more depth to customer data analytics Bloomin is Late to Delivery Expansion of Delivery Business 23% Q2'17 Q1'17 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% While only in 246 stores as of Q2 17, there is a great deal of room of expansion of delivery services There is also the potential to expand delivery to the Bonefish brand, as it is currently only available for Outback and Carrabba s Multi- Platform Approach Reaches More Consumers So, it's not an either/or necessarily. You see that in the hospitality industry, okay. There's an omnichannel approach that's really customer-centric Restaurants Currently Delivering in South Bend Sources: Company filings, 2017 Q2 Earnings call, Google images CEO Liz Smith 5

6 Outperformance of International Brand Strong SSS in Brazil Segment Expansion Through Franchising 12.6% Have agreements for: 26 stores in the Middle East by % 3.9% 7.3% 6.1% 3.6% 20 restaurants in Australia by 2020 Sold 73 company owned restaurants in South Korea Now, before I talk about the U.S. specifically franchising, our core competency is owning and running restaurants. That doesn't prevent us from looking at different markets where we feel that may be a better marketplace to go if we have some franchisee run it Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Low Saturation in Key Markets Leaves Room for Expansion CFO David Deno Strengthening BRL against USD Could Impact EPS Number of Chain Restaurants per 1M People Sources: Company filings, 2017 Q2 Earnings call, 2016 Investor Presentation, Bloomberg

7 Catalysts & Risks Upside Downside Delivery platform is expanded to the point that it has a significant impact on same store sales domestically U.S. same store sales revert back to their 2016 downward trend in comparison to competitors While only in 20% of company owned restaurants, this presents a significant opportunity for growth This would also cause BLMN to trade at depressed multiples compared to its peer set Restaurants internationally continue to outperform and Bloomin is able to effectively expand and capitalize on this strong brand recognition Growth in key international markets has led to a great deal of optimism, and if Bloomin can increase this portion of its portfolio, this high growth will have a meaningful impact on revenues Foot traffic and same store sales continue to rebound in the United States These sales still make up the bulk of Bloomin Brand s top line The USD weakens and revenues from the international segment take a hit Management expands its strategy of closing underperforming stores As a result SSS improve, but overall revenue is impacted The delivery platform does not gain traction with consumers There are costs associated with installing infrastructure for restaurants to have delivery capability 7

8 Stock Performance Strong Management View Peers NTM P/E Bloomin Brands management has been repurchasing shares since 2016 and states: Given current valuation levels, we will continue to opportunistically repurchase shares. CFO David Deno In 2017 there has been $233m in share repurchases Currently have board authorization to repurchase another $95m through October 2018 Bloomin' Brands The Cheesecak e Factory Texas Roadhous e Fogo de Chao BLMN CAKE TXRH FOGO 11.8x 15.4x 13.5x Median: 16.2x 23.1x YTD Stock Performance $25 BLMN misses Q2 17 Earnings $23 $21 $19 DineEquit y Cracker Barrel Darden DIN DRI CBRL 9.5x 18.3x 17.1x $17 $15 $13 BJ's Brinker EAT BJRI 9.5x 18.0x

9 Bloomin Brands Valuation 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E EPS Consensus EPS Premium to Consensus 1.8% 3.9% 4.1% Analyst Consensus Buy 36% Hold 57% Sell 7% Implied Enterprise Value Cumulative Present Value of FCF 1,467 Terminal Value Terminal Year EBITDA 681 Exit Multiple 6.2x Discount Factor 0.46 Present Value of Terminal Value 1,960 % of Enterprise Value 57% Implied Enterprise Value 3,427 Implied Share Price Upside Weight Discounted Cash Flow $ % 25% Comparable Companies $ % 25% EPS Projections $ % 50% Blended Implied Share Price Mulitple Implied Share Price LTM EV/EBITDA 8.8x NTM EV/EBITDA 8.3x LTM P/E 17.1x NTM P/E 16.2x $22.52 $ % 100% Implied Share Price DCF Implied Enterprise Value 3,427 Less: Total Debt 1,128 Plus: Cash & Cash Equivalents Implied Equity Value 2,402 Shares Outstanding 93.4 DCF Implied Share Price $25.72 Upside 50% EPS Analysis 2019 EPS $ P/E 13.5x Implied Share Price $

10 Final Recommendation The final recommendation Bloomin Brands is a buy with the expectation that as the company is able to grow topline revenue and sees a modest appreciation in its trading multiples Ø Price Target: $24 Ø Investment Horizon: 2 years Ø 2 year annualized IRR: 15% 10