Behavioral Finance Module II, Fall Syllabus

Transcription

1 Behavioral Finance Module II, Fall 2014 Syllabus Instructor: Chang Y. Ha, Ph.D. Office: PHBS 648 Class Hours: Tuesday/Friday. 10:30 am 12:20 pm Office Hours: Tuesday/Friday 1:30 pm 2:30 pm & by appointment Class Location: PHBS COURSE DESCRIPTION The main purpose of this course is to provide a broad view of the psychological foundations and their applications to finance. Behavioral finance is a relatively new but quickly expanding field of finance that seeks to provide explanations for people s economic decisions which are not exactly consistent with conventional economics and finance. It helps explain a number of seemingly irrational and inconsistent patterns found in investor decisions, financial markets, and corporate managerial behavior, complementing the traditional paradigm. Starting with a review of the standard finance theories, in particular, the efficient market hypothesis, the course examines a variety of financial market phenomena that are hard to explain by traditional theories. We will then use psychology and more realistic settings to develop alternative theories of financial markets, and shed light on the observed behavior of the investors. After initial resistance from traditionalists, behavioral finance is increasingly becoming part of mainstream finance. LEARNING OUTCOMES Understand the key concepts and ideas underlying behavioral finance. Learn analytical/empirical models to assess the behavioral effects on the markets and the participants thereof Develop the ability to apply those behavioral concepts and skills to own research to account for market anomalies. PREREQUISITES While there is no formal prerequisite, solid grasp of financial economics at master s level is instrumental. In addition, students are expected to be familiar with basic probability/statistics and econometrics at undergraduate level.

2 REQUIRED TEXT Behavioral finance: psychology, decision-making, and markets, (South-Western Cengage Learning, 2010) Lucy F. Ackert and Richard Deaves Inefficient markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance (Oxford University Press, 2000), Andrei Shleifer. ISBN-10: ; ISBN-13: LECTURE ATTENDANCE A significant amount of material will be covered in each class. Lectures will go beyond the scope of the textbook for some topics, and thus you are strongly encouraged to attend every class. If you are unable to attend a class, it is your responsibility to catch up on the material you ve missed. HOMEWORK There will be homework assignments regularly assigned, which will help the students review some of the basic concepts and practice to apply them to real practice. No late assignments or submissions will be accepted. Homework must be submitted at the start of class on the due date. Some of the homework will be group-based. PROJECT Students will hand in a group project toward the end of the term. Students are expected to apply what they learn in class to real financial markets. Project group will be the same as the one for homework assignment. Each group may have up to 5 members, who are not allowed to change groups except under special circumstances. EXAMINATIONS There will be a mid-term exam and a comprehensive final exam. Absence from any exam will result in a grade of zero unless documented justification is provided (e.g., of an illness). Make-ups will NOT be given. Any student who cannot attend an exam must contact me at the earliest possible time PRIOR TO the exam. ASSESSMENT In class Midterm Exam 25% Final Exam 35% Project/Presentation 20% Homework 10% Class Attendance/Participation 10%

3 POLICY 1. I only reply to PHBS accounts that indicate the course name in the subject line. 2. I reply to s during regular work hours in the week. I may or may not reply to s at other times. CLASS PARTICIPATION AND IMPROPER BEHAVIOR There will be frequent classroom discussions and your participation/demeanor will be counted toward an overall participation score. Improper behavior such as coming late, leaving early, and snoring in class or inappropriate computer usage in class such as ing, instant messaging, web surfing, and unrelated computer use will not be allowed during class time. It is distractive to both your classmates and the instructor. STUDENT IDENTIFICATION REQUIRED FOR EXAMINATIONS Student ID should be visible at all times during the examination. Students without photographic ID may not be allowed to sit the examinations. It is the students responsibility to ensure that they are aware of the university rules concerning their degree and meet the assessment criteria in this subject. Failure to read this document, to receive announcements in class, or to sit examinations does not mean that further assessment is automatically granted. ACADEMIC MISCONDUCT Please familiarize yourself with what constitutes plagiarism, which breaks down the academic integrity policies set by PKU. I expect that the in-class examinations will be your own individual work effort. Students caught plagiarizing will be punished as severely as the school permits. The following are some of the actions that have resulted in students being found guilty of academic misconduct in recent years: 1. taking unauthorized materials into an examination; 2. submitting work for assessment knowing it to be the work of another person; 3. improperly obtaining prior knowledge of an examination paper and using that knowledge in the examination; 4. failure to acknowledge the source of material in an assignment.

4 Course Schedule (tentative, and optimistic) Week Topic(s) Tests 1 Review of Traditional Finance I 2 Review of Traditional Finance II 3 Prospect Theory, Framing, and Mental Accounting 4 Challenge to Market Efficiency 5 Heuristics and Biases, and Their Implications Midterm exam. 6 Overconfidence, and Their Implications 7 Emotion and Social Influences 8 Anomalies and Behavioral Explanations 9 Stock Market Puzzles and Behavioral Factors Final Exam Final Exam (Cumulative) Week Days and Dates 1 Fri (Nov 14) and Tue (Nov 18) 2 Fri (Nov 21) and Tue (Nov 25) 3 Fri (Nov 28) and Tue (Dec 2) 4 Wed (Dec 3) and Fri (Dec 5) 5 Tue (Dec 9) and Wed (Dec 10) 6 Fri (Dec 12) and Tue (Dec 16) 7 Wed (Dec 17) and Fri (Dec 19) 8 Tue (Dec 23) and Fri (Dec 26) 9 Tue (Dec 30) and Tue (Jan 13) Final Exam 1:00 pm 3:00 pm, Jan. 16, 2015

5 Reading Lists (*)Ali, A., L. Hwang, and M. A. Trombley, 2003, Arbitrage risk and the book-to-market anomaly, Journal of Financial Economics, 69, (*)Avery, C., and P. Zemsky, 1998, Multidimensional uncertainty and herd behavior in financial markets, American Economic Review, 88, Baker, M., and A. Sesia, 2007, Behavioral finance at JPMorgan, HBS. (*)Baker, M., and J. Wurgler, 2006, Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns, Journal of Finance, 61, (*)Banerjee, A., 1992, A simple model of herding behavior, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, (*)Barber, Brd M., and T. Odean, 2000, Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors, Journal of Finance, 55, Barber, Brad M., T. Odean, and N. Zhu, 2009, Do retail trades move markets?, Review of Financial Studies, 22, (*)Barberis, N., and A. Shleifer, 2003, Style investing, Journal of Financial Economics, 68, (*)Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, and J. Wurgler, 2005, Comovement, Journal of Financial Economics, 75, (*)Barberis, N., and R. Thaler, 2003, A survey of behavioral finance in Constantinides, G., M. Harris, and R. Stulz, (eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance: Financial Markets and Asset Pricing, North Holland, Amsterdam, (*)Benartzi, S., and R. Thaler, 1995, Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, Benartzi, S., 2001, Excessive extrapolation and the allocation of 401(K) accounts to company stock, Journal of Finance, (*)Bernard, V., 1992, Stock price reactions to earnings announcements, In: Thaler, R. (Ed.), Advances in Behavioral Finance. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Bernardo, A., and I. Welch, 2001, On the evolution of overconfidence and entrepreneurs, Journal of Economics and Management Strtegy, 10, Bickhchandani, S. D., D. Hirshleifer, and I. Welch, 1992, A theory of Feds, fashion, custom, and cultural changes as information cascades, Journal of Political Economy, 100, Bickhchandani, S. D., and S. Sharma, 2000, Herd behavior in financial markets, IMF Staff Papers, 47,

6 Brockman, Paul, and D. Michayluk, 1998, Individual versus institutional investors and the weekend effect, Journal of Economics and Finance, 22, (*)Brunnermeier, M. K., and L. H. Pedersen, 2005, Predatory trading, Journal of Finance, 60, (*)Brunnermeier, M. K., and S. Nagel, 2004, Hedge funds and the technology bubble, Journal of Finance, 59, Chan, L. K. C., and J. Lakonishok, 1993, Institutional trades and intraday stock price behavior, Journal of Financial Economics, 33, Chan, S. H., W. Leung, and K. Wang, 2004, The impact of institutional investors on the Monday seasonal, The Journal of Business, 77, (*)Chiang, T. C., and D. Zheng, 2010, An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, Cohen, L., 2009, Loyalty based portfolio choice, Review of Financial Studies, 22, (*)Coval, J. D., and T. J. Moskowitz, 1999, Home bias at home: Local equity preference in domestic portfolios, Journal of Finance, 54, Coval, J. D., and T. J. Moskowitz, 2001, The geography of investment: informed trading and asset prices, Journal of Political Economy, 109, (*)Coval, J. D., and T. Shumway, 2005, "Do behavioral biases affect prices?", Journal of Finance, 60, (*)Cutler, D., J. Poterba, and L. Summers, 1989, What moves stock prices?, Journal of Portfolio Management, 15, (*)Daniel, K., D. Hirshleifer, and A. Subrahmanyam, 1998, Investor psychology and security market under- and overreactions, Journal of Finance, 53, Darlin, D., 2009, Don t worry, be happy: the warranty psychology, The New York Times, November 8. (*)D Avolio, G., 2002, The market for borrowing stock, Journal of Financial Economics, 66, De, B. W., and R. Thaler, 1985, Does the stock market overreact?, Journal of Finance, 40, De, B. W., and R. Thaler, 1987, Further evidence on investor overreaction and stock market seasonality, Journal of Finance, 42, (*)De-long, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. H. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann, 1990, Noise trader risk in financial markets, Journal of Political Economy, 98, (*)De-long, J. B., A. Shleifer, L. H. Summers, and R. J. Waldmann, 1991, The survival of noise traders in financial markets, Journal of Business, 64, 1-19.

7 (*)Fama, E., L. Fisher, M. C. Jensen, and R. R. Roll, 1969, The adjustment of stock price to new information, International Economic Review, 10, (*)Fama, E., and K. R. French, 1992, The cross-section of expected stock returns, Journal of Finance, 47, (*)French, K. R., 1980, Stock returns and the weekend effect, Journal of Financial Economics, 8, (*)French, K. R., and J. M. Poterba, 1991, Investor diversification and international equity markets, American Economic Review, 81, (*)Froot, K. A., P. G. J. O Connell, and M. Seasholes, 2001, The portfolio flows of international investors, Journal of Financial Economics, 59, (*)Froot, K. A., and D., Emile, 1999, How are stock prices affected by location of trade?, Journal of Financial Economics, 53, (*)Froot, K. A., D. Scharfstein, and J. C. Stein, 1992, Herd on the street: Informational inefficiencies in a market with short-term speculation, Journal of Finance, 47, Goel, A. M., and A. Thakor, 2008, Overconfidence, CEO selection, and corporate governance, Journal of Finance, 63, Graham, J., 1999, Herding among investment newsletters: Theory and evidence, Journal of Finance, 54, (*)Genesove, D., and J. M. Christopher, 2001, Loss aversion and seller behavior: evidence from the housing market, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, (*)Gervais, S., and T. Odean, 2001, Learning to be overconfident, Review of Financial Studies, 14, Grinblatt, M., and M. Keloharju, 2001, How distance, language, and culture influence stockholdings and trades, Journal of Finance, 56, Grinblatt, M., and M. Keloharju, 2009, Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity, Journal of Finance, 64, Grinblatt, M., S. Titman, and R. Wermers, 1995, Momentum investment strategies, portfolio performance, and herding: A study of mutual fund behavior, American Economic Review, 85, (*)Hong, J., and J. Stein, 1999, A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets, Journal of Finance, 54, Huberman, G., 2001, Familiarity breeds investment, Review of Financial Studies, 14, Huberman, G., and W. Jiang, 2006, Offering versus choice in 401(K) plans: Equity exposure and number of funds, Journal of Finance, 61, (*)Huberman, G., and T. Regev, 2001, Contagious speculation and a cure for cancer: A nonevent that made stock prices soar, Journal of Finance, 56,

8 (*)Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 1993, Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency, Journal of Finance, 48, (*)Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 2001, Profitability of momentum strategies : an evaluation of alternative explanations, Journal of Finance, 56, (*)Jegadeesh, N., and S. Titman, 2002, Cross sectional and time series determinants of momentum strategies, Review of Financial Studies, 15, Jiang, Guohua, 2007, Stock performance and the mispricing of accruals, The International Journal of Accounting, 42, (*)Jones, C. M., and O. A. Lamont, 2002, Short sale constraints and stock returns, Journal of Financial Economics, 66, (*)Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky, 1979, Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, Kaniel, R., G. Saar, and S. Titman, 2008, Individual investor trading and stock returns, Journal of Finance, 63, (*)Klibanoff, P., O. Lamont, and T. A. Wizman, 1998, Investor reaction to salient news in closed-end country funds, Journal of Finance, 53, (*)Lakonishok, J., and S. Smidt, 1988, Are seasonal anomalies real? A ninety-year perspective, Review of Financial Studies, (*)Lakonishok, J., and E. Maberly, 1990, The weekend effect: Trading patterns of individual and institutional investors, Journal of Finance, 45, (*)Lakonishok, J., A. Shleifer, and R. W. Vishny, 1992, The impact of institutional trading on stock prices, Journal of Financial Economics, 32, Leonhardt, D., 2003, Caution is costly, scholars say, The New York Times, July 30. (*)Lev, B., and D. Nissim, 2006, The persistence of the accruals anomaly, Contemporary Accounting Research, 23, (*)Lewellen, J., 2010, Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: An alternative view, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50, (*)Lo, A., and A. C. MacKinlay, 1990, When are contrarian profits due to stock market overreaction?, Review of Financial Studies, 3, (*)Malmendier, U., and G. Tate, 2005, CEO overconfidence and corporate investment, Journal of Finance, 60, (*)Malmendier, U., G. Tate, and J. Yan, 2007, Corporate financial policies with overconfident managers, Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.

9 (*)Mehra, R., and E. C. Prescott, 1985, The equity premium: A puzzle, Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, (*)Mendenhall, R. R., 2004, Arbitrage risk and post-earnings-announcement drift, Journal of Business, 77, (*)Moller, N., and S. Zilca, 2008, The evolution of the January effect, Journal of Banking and Fiance, 32, (*)Moskowitz, T. J., and M. Grinblatt, 1999, Do industries explain momentum?, Journal of Finance, 54, (*)Odean, T., 1999, Do investors trade too much?, American Economic Review, 89, Portes, R., and H. Rey, 2005, The determinants of cross-border equity flows, Journal of International Economics, 65, (*)Richardson, S,, I. Tna, and P. Wysocki, 2010, Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances, Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50, (*)Samuelson, P. A., 1963, Risk and uncertainty: A facllacy of large numbers, Scientia, 98, (*)Shapira, Z., and I. Venezia, 2001, Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors, Journal of Banking and Finance, 25, (*)Shapira, Z., and I. Venezia, 2008, Paying a premium: Why do consumers buy too much insurance, STERN Business, (*)Shefrin, H., and M. Statman, 1985, The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence, Journal of Finance, 40, (*)Shiller, R., 1981, Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends?, American Economic Review, 71, (*)Shleifer, A., and R. W. Vishny, 1997, The limit of arbitrage, Journal of Finance, 52, 35,-55. Stern, H. S., and C. N. Morris, 1993, A statistical analysis of hitting streaks in baseball: comment, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, (*)Tesar, Linda, and I. Werner, 1995, Home bias and high turnover, Journal of International Money and Finance, 14, (*)Venezia, I., and Z. Shapira, 2007, On the behavioral differences between professional and Amateur investors after the weekend, Journal of Banking and Finance, 31, (*)Venezia, I., A. Nashikkar, and Z. Shapira, 2011, Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility, Journal of Banking and Finance 35, Wang, F. A., 2001, Overconfidence, investor sentiment and evolution, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 10,

10 (*)Welch, I., 2000, Herding among security analysts, Journal of Financial Economics, 58, (*)Wu, J. G., L. Zhang, and X. F. Zhang, 2007, Understanding the accural anomaly, Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.