Morning star. Punter s Call

Transcription

1 A Sharekhan technical research newsletter For November 1, 216 Punter s Call Morning star Market on October 28, 216: Resistance at 8657 The Nifty opened with a positive gap and ended the trading session higher. Interestingly, the Nifty today made a Morning Star pattern, which has bullish implications. Moreover, the Morning Star pattern has been formed taking support of the gap and 78.6% retracement level of the previous rally ie These are early signs of a trend reversal. After today s Morning Star pattern, the shorting position should be kept with a tight stop loss. If the Nifty manages to break above 8737, then the bulls will be in a dominant position. However, the till the Index doesn t break above 8737, the bears have an upper hand. An immediate resistance is at 8657, above which a move towards 87 is likely. On the downside, levels will act as support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty has once again closed around the Downward Sloping Trendline. It would be interesting to see if the Bank Nifty manages to sustain above it or not in the coming trading sessions. An immediate resistance for the Bank Nifty is at , whereas will act as support. As there are no signs of a reversal yet, we maintain our bearish stance on the Nifty for a target of 847 as long as it is trading below Other technical observations On the daily chart, the Nifty is trading below the 2- day moving average (DMA) and the 4-DMA, ie 8664 and 8673, respectively. The momentum indicator is in a positive mode on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above the 2- hour moving average (HMA) and the 4-HMA, ie 8614 and 8638, respectively, which are crucial intra-day levels. The hourly momentum indicator is in a positive mode. The market breadth was positive with 967 advances and 651 declines on the National Exchange. Nifty daily: 8,638 KST ( ) NSE [NIFTY] (8,625., 8,653.75, 8,581.75, 8,639.95, ) September October November 6-minute KST (.27565) NSE [NIFTY] (8,648., 8,653.75, 8,631.6, 8,639.95, ) % % % % % % % September October Market breadth BSE NSE Advances 1, Decline 1, Unchanged Volume 3,317 Cr 21,54 Cr For Private Circulation only Registered Office: Sharekhan Limited, 1th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha ithink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 442, Maharashtra. Tel: Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Registration details: BSE INB/INF/INE ; NSE INB/INF/ INE ; MSEI: INB/INF , CD - INE ; DP-NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL ; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL ; PMS-INP662; Mutual Fund-ARN 2669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-18 ; (MCX/TCM/CORP/425) ; NCDEX-132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/ CORP/142) ; NCDEX SPOT-NCDEXSPOT/116/CO/11/2626 ; For any complaints at igc@sharekhan.com ; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Do s & Don ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on before investing.

2 áá Looking Trendy Short Term Trend Index Target Trend Reversal Support / Resistance Sensex Up above /28256 Nifty 847 Up above /8737 á á Medium Term Trend Index Target Trend Reversal Support / Resistance Sensex 325 Down Below /325 Nifty 9119 Down Below /9119 á á Icon guide á Up Down Sideways Downswing matures Upswing matures á Trendy Levels for Tomorrow Sensex Nifty Support Resistance Support Resistance DSMA 4 DEMA 2 DSMA 4 DEMA BSE Sensex: 27,941 Nifty: 8,638 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 2 November 1, 216

3 Smart Charts Date Scrip Name Stop Loss ( On closing Basis ) Buy Price/ Sell Price Call Closing Price/ Potential% P/L at Exit/ Current Target 1 Target 2 28-Oct-16 PIDILITIND Nov Fut Buy % Oct-16 Yes Bank Nov Fut Sell 1, , , % 1,185. 1,1. NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Smart Charts Calls are on closing ba sis unless specified. TPB: Trailing profit booked Momentum Cash Ideas For the short term 1 to 1 days Date Stop Loss/ Reversal TPB: Trailing profit booked NOTE: taken after market hours will be highlited in blue colour. Price Rules for momentum calls: 1) The stop loss should be placed after 9.17am in order to avoid freak trade 2) The same will be revised in the TradeTiger terminal every day for the pop-ups Closing Price Potential % P/L at Target1 Target 2 28-Oct-16 DHFL Buy % Oct-16 BHARATGEAR Buy % For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 3 November 1, 216

4 Short Term Trend Bank Nifty Support: 19465/19362 Resistance: 19644/ uly August September October November 7 14 Premium Technical Synopsis date Scrip Name Segments Stop loss (On Closing Basis ) Reco Price Closing Price/ Potential P/L at (%) Target 1 Target 2 2-Oct-16 THOMASCOOK Buy Cash % *DCL # ^Intra-day Tgt. = Target Rwd. = Reward For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 4 November 1, 216

5 Day Trader s Hit List For November 1, 216 Scrip Name Support Levels Close Resistance Levels S2 S1 R1 R2 NIFTY Futures , Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 Bank Nifty Futures , Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 Axis Bank Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 BHEL Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 BPCL Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 INFOSYS Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 ICICI Bank Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 LIC Housing Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 LNT , Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 Reliance Industries , Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 SBI Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 SunPharma Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 Tata Motors Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 Yes Bank , Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 TISCO Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 TCS , Go Long AboveR1 / Go Short Below s1 *Note: Closing price of Nifty futures is last traded price of Nifty futures on NSE SL=Stoploss For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 5 November 1, 216

6 Muhurat Picks Light up your Diwali with these sparkling stocks Sunil Hitech Engineers (Sector: Industrial Machinery) The stock has taken off from its previous swing high on a primary degree, which means a fresh bull run has started. The move from the lows of August 213 till August 215 ie from 35.2 till 352 was clearly an impulse move ie a five-wave rising structure that is marked as Wave 1. Following Wave 1, the stock retraced in a triple zig-zag corrective pattern ie W-X-Y-X-Z. It retraced exactly 61.8% of its previous Wave 1. Moreover, it also reversed from its 51-DEMA (Daily Exponential Moving Average). The momentum indicator MACD has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. The MACD reversing from the zero line indicates that Monthly Chart SUNIL HITECH ENGINEERS (28., 468.6, 28., 437.2, +16.1) Volume (4,841,83) MACD (33.368) A M J J A S O N D 212 A M J J A S O N D 213 A M J A S O N D 214 A M J A S O N D 215 A M J A S O N D 216 A M J J A S O D 217 A M J J A S the stock has completed its downtrend and a fresh uptrend has resumed. The volumes speak for themselves as there has been an incremental rise in volumes, which qualifies this breakout as a price-volume breakout. Therefore, the probability of an upside increases with the same. On the daily chart, the stock has recently formed a Bullish Hammer candlestick pattern, which is a good reversal sign and the low of the same is 38, which will act as a very crucial support going forward. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 6, which is ~38.2% of Wave 1. Thereafter, the target is 8, which is % length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying Sunil Hitech Engineers for targets of 6 and 8 with a Stop Loss below the swing low of the Hammer ie at 375 on a closing basis..% 23.6% 38.2%.% 61.8% 1.% ^ _ x1 Sunil Hitech Engineers Buy :4.57 1:8.65 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 6 November 1, 216

7 MACD (3.541) THOMAS COOK (I) (214., 222., 213., 216.6, ) Volume (1,79,377) x1 IFB Industries (Sector: Household appliances) The stock has recently provided a break-out from the falling trendline resistance. Hence, the correction seems to be over. The move from the lows of to 7 was clearly an impulse ie a five-wave rising structure, which is marked as Wave (III). The retracement was 61.8% of its previous move, which is the characteristic of Wave 2 but on a conservative side it is considered as Wave 4 of 3. The momentum indicator has also confirmed an upward breakout. The momentum indicator KST has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 933, which is ~23.6% of Wave 1. Thereafter the target comes to 1321, which is 38.2% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying IFB Industries for targets of 933 and 1321 with a Stop Loss below 362 on a closing basis. Monthly Chart IFB Industries Buy , :2.47 1:4.83 Thomas Cook (India) (Sector: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines) The stock has given a breakout from the Downward Sloping Trendline with increasing volume. Interestingly, the stock had been falling on lower volume prior to the breakout. The conservative counts for Thomas Cook (India) say that the stock has completed Wave (A) and Wave (B), and Wave (5) of (C) has possibly started. In Wave (C), Wave (2) retraced 61.8% of Wave (1). Wave (3) was extended and was more than 261.8% of Wave (1). Wave (4) has retraced 38.2% of Wave (3). As per the Elliot Wave Theory, Wave (5) is usually equal to Wave (1). Considering that, the target for Thomas Cook (India) comes to 39. Weekly MACD has given a positive crossover, which has bullish implications. The stock has taken support at -WMA and has started rising. Given that the stock has formed an impulse from 165, we recommend buying the stock for a target of 39 with a Stop Loss of 165 (closing basis). Weekly Chart (3) (4) (A)/(I) (1) (2) (B)/(II) Target Stop Loss Risk Reward Thomas Cook Buy :3.35 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 7 November 1, 216

8 MACD ( ) SUVEN LIFE SCIENCES (2., 24., 188.8, 19., -9.31) Volume (1,84,117) x Suven Life Sciences (Sector: Pharmaceuticals) Weekly Chart The stock made a top of 338 in April 215 but after that it entered a corrective phase. Interestingly, the stock has given an impulse from 144, indicating that the stock has completed the correction phase (3) and is now ready to rise. In 29, the stock had formed a leading diagonal, which should ideally be marked as Wave (I) but to be on a conservative (4) side, we are assuming it to be Wave (A). The stock completed Wave (A) & (B) wherein Wave (B) (A)/(I) (1) retraced ~9% of Wave (A). Currently, we are in Wave (5) of Wave (C) or (III). In Wave (C) or (III), (2) Wave (2) had retraced % of Wave (1). Wave (3) was an extended wave and was more than 423.6% (B)/(II) of Wave (1). Wave (4) has retraced ~61.8% of Wave (3) and post that, the stock has formed an impulse wave. The weekly momentum indicator is in buy mode, which has bullish implications. Also, the impulse move from 144 has come on the back of good volume. Given that Wave (5) generally travels beyond the high of Wave (3), we have an initial target of 338. [High of Wave (3)]. However, Wave (5) is generally equal to Wave (1). Therefore, our final target is 46. The Stop Loss (SL) shall be placed at 144, which is the lowest point of the recent impulse move. Suven Life Sciences Buy :3.21 1:5.87 Greaves Cotton (Sector: Industrial Machinery) The stock has completed its corrective mode where it formed a diamond pattern and is on the verge of a breakout. The previous move from the lows of August 213 till January 215 ie from till was clearly an impulse move ie a fivewave rising structure that is marked as wave (I) of (III). Following Wave 1, the stock retraced exactly 38.2% of its previous Wave 1. The momentum indicator KST has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. The KST reversing from the zero line indicates that the stock has completed its downtrend and a fresh uptrend has resumed. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 218, which is ~38.2% of Wave 1 and thereafter 355, which is 61.8% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying Greaves Cotton for the targets of 218 and 335 with a Stop Loss below the swing low ie 13.6 on a closing basis. Quarterly Chart Greaves Cotton Buy :2.36 1:4. For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 8 November 1, 216

9 .% 23.6% 38.2%.% 61.8% 78.6% 1.% KST ( ) RASHTRIYA CHEM (48.4,.8, 47.9, 48.4, +.2) Volume (6,93,558) x1 Dec 213 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 214 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 215 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 216 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RCF (Sector Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals) The stock has seen an impulse move from the bottom of 25. The impulse move can be marked as Wave (I) or (A). The stock has then seen a sharp correction and has retraced 78.6% of the previous rally from 25 to 75. The fall from 75 has been corrective in nature and can be labeled as Wave (II) or (B). The fall has been on thin volumes. However, there was an expansion in volume in the recent upmove ie from the low of 35. The ascent from 35 is possibly the start of Wave (C) or (III), wherein the stock has formed a leading diagonal in Wave (1) of Wave (C) or (III), which has five waves in it. Also, the stock is forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, wherein a break above 54 (neckline) will confirm the bullish pattern. The stock will gain momentum once it breaks the neckline. The weekly KST has turned positive. The equality target of the previous upmove comes to 1. Hence, we recommend buying the stock for the target of 1 and the Stop Loss shall be placed at 35 (closing basis). Weekly Chart Target Stop Loss Risk Reward RCF Buy :3.6 PTC India Financial Services (Sector: Financial Services) Weekly Chart The stock in its previous move from the lows of August 213 till August 215 ie from 1.7 till was clearly an impulse move ie a five-wave rising structure that is marked as Wave 1. After that, it entered a correction mode. The retracement was 61.8% of the previous move, which is generally the characteristic of Wave 2. As per the Elliott Wave Theory, from here on, the next set of impulse is expected to form on upside with the stock breaking out from Triangle as well as multimonth channelised correction. The momentum indicator KST has given a positive crossover from the zero reference line, thus confirming a breakout in the stock. The KST reversing from the zero line indicates that the stock has completed its downtrend and a fresh uptrend has resumed. It is also taking support at 2WSMA & 4WEMA. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 76, which is ~23.6% of Wave 1. Thereafter, the target is 16, which is 38.2% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying PTC India Financial for targets of 76 and 16 with a Stop Loss below the swing low ie at 29.7 on a closing basis. PTC India Finance Buy :4.29 1:7.72 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 9 November 1, 216

10 Cera Sanitaryware: (Sector Construction) The stock is forming a multi-year impulse on the upside. In February 216 the stock had completed the fourth wave correction that found support near the lower end of the reverse rising channel, which is a long-term channel. Since then the stock has started the fifth leg of the rally. Over the last few months it has formed a multi-month bullish flag pattern, which has broken out on the upside recently. The monthly momentum indicator has completed its correction cycle and given a fresh buy signal. Weekly Chart KST (21.432) CERA SANITARYWARE (2,4., 2,718.7, 2,351., 2,586., +26.6) Target Stop Loss Risk Reward Cera Sanitaryware BUY :13.5 Corporation Bank (Sector Banks (Public sector)) The stock has witnessed a multi-year correction, which has unfolded in a channelised manner. In terms of wave structure it has formed a complex correction, which got over near the 29 low, ie Rs31. From there the stock started a fresh rally and formed a leading diagonal to begin with. Thus, it has the potential to form a multi-year double bottom pattern, which is bullish. The monthly momentum indicator has triggered a bullish crossover. Weekly Chart KST ( ) CORPORATION BANK (42.9, 44., 4.4, 42.2, +.) x x w y 4 z Target Stop Loss Risk Reward Corporation Bank BUY :8.9 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 1 November 1, 216

11 Aarti Drugs (Sector: Pharmaceuticals) Aarti Drugs has provided a clear break-out from the falling trend line with an increase in its volumes as well as a buy cross-over in its MACD with a strong positive divergence on its weekly charts. This is quite positive for bulls going ahead. On the monthly charts the MACD is showing signs of a reversal from the zero reference line On the quarterly charts, there s a high probability that with this price volume break-out the wave V up for wave 3 has started. Hence, the minimum target comes to Rs875, which is the previous swing high, and Rs1,492, which is the wave I equality target for wave V. Monthly Chart (1) AAARTI DRUGS (627., 686.4, 624., 654.4, +33.4) 1 2 (2) MACD ( ) Aarti Drugs BUY :1.47 1:5.64 Schneider Electric infra (Sector: Industrial Manufacturing) Schneider has provided a break-out from the symmetrical triangle formed in its wave Z, which is the last wave on the downside. Once the wave Z gets over on the downside, the probability of a bottom increases and this has happened in the case of Schneider. Hence, the probability of a bottom in Schneider is quite high. The stock has also provided a break-out from the downtrend line resistance and taken off its previous swing high, thereby violating the lower-top-lower-bottom series. The rise prior to the fall was clearly an impulse formation, ie a five-wave rise, following which we have seen the retracement of the same, ie exactly 61.8% retracement of the previous rise. Hence, the probability of wave 2/B getting over is quite high. Now, the minimum target in the medium term comes Rs242 whereas Rs559 is the quality target of it, ie wave 1 = wave 3. On the lower side, Rs126 Monthly Chart seems to be a rock bottom for the stock. The momentum indicator MACD has provided a buy cross-over on the weekly and daily charts. On the monthly charts it still has to provide a buy cross-over, though it s showing signs of a reversal from the zero reference line..% 23.6% 38.2%.% 61.8% 1.% SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE (137.9, 169.8, 137.9, 156.8, +19.3) MACD ( ) Volume (4,69,187) 212 J J A S O N D 213 A M J J A S O N D 214 A M J J A S O N D 215 A M J J A S O N D 216 A M J J A S O N D 217 A M J J A S ^ _ Schneider Electric infra BUY :2.63 1:4.17 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 11 November 1, 216

12 Monsanto (Sector: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals) The stock has been trending in an Upward Sloping Parallel Channel, which clearly indicates that the larger trend is up. The stock has been forming impulse waves ie a five-wave rising structure in the past, which increases the probability of a medium to long term uptrend. Recently, the stock has provided a breakout from the downtrend line resistance after retracing between 61.8% of the entire rise from 56 to So, the probability of a Wave 3 of (3) has increased, which is one of the strongest waves of all. The stock has also taken support at its crucial moving average and has reversed from the same, which is again quite positive for the medium to long term. The momentum indicator MACD is well in buy mode on the quarterly charts. On the monthly charts, it is reversing from the zero reference line. The volumes too have increased on the downtrend line breakout, which qualifies this as a price-volume breakout. So, the probability of Wave 3 of (3) has increased based on the above mentioned technical evidences. Hence, we recommend buying Monsanto India for targets of 516 and 9788 with a Stop Loss below its Wave 1 ie at 1519 on a closing basis. Quarterly Chart Monsanto India Buy :3.41 1:9.3 Credit Analysis & Research (CARE) (Sector: Financial services) In its previous rally, the stock had formed an impulse. It retraced exactly 61.8% of its previous Wave 1. The stock has formed an impulse from the end of Wave 2 and is currently in Wave 3 of 3.The Bullish Development in price action has been accompanied by a buy signal in the weekly momentum indicator. 2WSMA and 4WEMA are acting as support on downside and any correction in price can be seen as a buying opportunity. On the upside, the minimum target comes to 2195, which is ~78.6% of Wave 1 and thereafter 27, which is 88.6% length of Wave 1. So, we recommend buying CARE for the targets of 2195 and 27 with a Stop Loss below the swing high ie at 1149 on a closing basis. Weekly Chart Care Ratings Buy 1,448 2,195 2,7 1,149 1:2.5 1:4.18 For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 12 November 1, 216

13 Sectorial synopsis of Diwali picks Construction Industrial Manufacturing Financial Services Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Household Appliances Pharmaceuticals Industrial Machinery Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Portfolio Risk Reward Target 1 Target 2 Stop Loss Risk Reward (1) Reward (2) Risk/ Reward (1) Risk/ Reward (2) RCF :3.7 - Thomas Cook :3.4 - Suven Life Science :3.2 1:5.9 Cera 2,561. 8,8. - 2, , : Corp Bank :8.9 - PTC India Finace :4.3 - IFB Inds :2.5 1:4.8 Greaves Cotton :2.35 1:4. Sunil Hi-tech Engineers :4.6 1:8.6 Monsanto India 2, , , , , :3.4 1:9. CARE Rating 1,448. 2, , ,252. 1:2.5 1:4.2 Aarti Drugs :1.5 1:5.6 Schneider Electric infra :2.6 1:4.2 TOTAL , , , :5.3 1:7.1 The total risk and reward that is generated is based on the assumption that the investor invests in all the 13 stocks equally or exposure to all the 13 scrips is equally weighted. For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 13 November 1, 216

14 Last Diwali Synopsis RECO Reco Price Target Exit Price / Returns 52 Wk High Returns Revised SL Rane Brake Buy Book Profit % Bannariaman Sugars Buy 1,2.65 Book profit 2,723. 1, % Lumax Auto Technologies Buy 3.45 Stoploss Revised 1, % % 419. Trigyn Technologies Buy 69.9 Stoploss Revised % % 1.5 Welspun Buy 742. Book Profit 1,185. 1, % Nitin Fire Buy 41. Stoploss Triggered % Rajesh Exports Buy 718. Stoploss Triggered 1, % For Private Circulation only Eagle Eye Equities 14 November 1, 216

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