Investment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates

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1 Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) , July 27, 2015 "Greed and Genius?!" In Parsons Pleasure, a short story by Roald Dahl, a greedy London antiques dealer dons a clerical collar, drives to the country, parks his car, and walks from cottage to cottage requesting old furniture, under the guise of collecting for the Society for the Preservation of Rare Furniture. His mission, of course, is to winkle the bumpkins out of treasures they don t know they have. He can scarcely believe his luck when he is promised a chest worth thousands of pounds. He buys it for a song, saying he wants the legs and dismissing the rest as firewood. He fetched his car and drives back to find that his benefactors have carefully removed the legs and chopped the chest into firewood.... Winkling the Bumpkins and Other Tales of Greed, Patricia O Toole, Lears, March Greed is always hard to measure. Certainly we have seen some signs of it in the Big Bio-Bubble and the new issue market. Putting the latter into perspective is Michael Milken, who was featured in an exclusive cover story interview in the March 16, 1992 issue of Forbes: The stock market is certainly voracious today for stock offerings. It s beginning to look like the 1960s again. Or 1983 or These times don t go on forever. Anyone who isn t selling equity today should have his head examined. The window is WIDE open. Window? It s the Grand Canyon. Many of his observations rang true back then and they ring true today as well. Milken goes on to note: I have often been told, You keep harking back to You were just a kid! I was 100 then. I m 200 now. The year 1974 taught me that leverage can decimate even the best company when its access to capital is cut off. It also taught me that most people have short memories. That s why most financial people have five-year careers; one market cycle. All those geniuses who bought stock in the mid-1960 s thought they had some divine touch then it all stopped. It hadn t occurred to them that they looked good because virtually everything was going up. In 1983 Drexel published a paper called The $55 Billion Misunderstanding. That s how much was lost by people following Nifty Fifty growth stocks. It was a trend, and trends end. Wow! Do I remember the 1974 period. From the bull market top on January 11, 1973 at all the way down to December 6, 1974 at 577. Ugly, and awful for almost two years with every rally a trap set up by the bears. Day after day the market went down. It seemed as if it would never end. As Jimmy Wheat Sr., of Wheat First Securities, would say, We are being pecked to death by pelicans! Listen to Peter Lynch in the January 20, 1992 Barron s Roundtable: LYNCH: Taco Bell went from $9 to $1 in They made money and they never had a down quarter. I mean, you get one of these big drops in these overpriced stocks, like you had in 87, in 74; you get one of these major corrections of these growth stocks and everything goes down. Or, listen to John Boland in a November 1990 issue of Warfield s Easy Money Column: Anyone who was active in the market through the collapse will remember that at the bottom, when the process were at once-in-a-lifetime lows, buying stocks held scant appeal. Reasons for shunning the bargains were abundant. The days when people made money in stocks were gone. The economy was in a bucket going to hell. If you bought stocks today, you would lose money because you had lost money every time you bought stocks in the last two years.... Back in 1974, (our friend) had a favorite stock, with about $15 (per share) in cash in the till, a book around $20. He started buying at $10 (and) bought it down to $6 and change. The shares sank to $3.75, but my friend was out of money. That s a bear market. The bulls aren t just morally beaten. They re broke.... The bleak mood has a tenuous bridge to reality. Perception, intensely felt, creates minor reality. A trader, brutalized for every optimistic thought he has, stops having them and drops out of the market. The absence of his International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

2 bids causes prices to fall further. This feeds on itself only for a time, but while it does, anyone stuck in the stock market would be much happier sitting in T-Bills in Acapulco. The bear market that ended in December 1974 did such damage to investor psychology that it wasn t until the mid- 80s that stock ownership became chic again. And, a number of weeks ago the window was wide open again with a plethora of IPOs and new ETFs. Yet we were writing, at the time, the stock market s internal energy is TOTALLY used up on a short-term basis, leading us to believe a trading top was at hand. We wrote, Either the SPX will fail to make a new all-time high, or make a marginal new all-time high, before succumbing to a pullback. Clearly, the anticipated pullback is at hand, leaving current investor psychology just about as bleak as it gets, which is pretty amazing with the S&P 500 (SPX/ ) only 2.6% below its intraday all-time high! Still, as expected the level didn t hold, and neither did the level. In fact, in Friday s Fade the SPX decisively closed below its 50-day moving average (DMA) of , bringing into view its 200-DMA at With the NYSE McClellan Oscillator vastly oversold on a short-term basis (see chart 1 on page 3), it would not surprise to see a rally attempt off of the level. Quite frankly, however, I think that zone eventually gives way to a more formidable pullback to the level, and maybe as low as last December s lows of In response to one of our financial advisor s questions of how will you know when we bottom, I said, It s kind of like pornography, you will know it when you see it! I will say, however, the selling in the energy complex borders on capitulation, as do commodities in general! The call for this week: The NASDAQ has failed to sustain a breakout to new decisive all-time highs seven times recently. I don t know the precedent for that, but I will bet it is legion! Moreover, there were 33 buying climaxes on the SPX last week, the most since last March s short-term Trading Top; as well, the SPX also experienced the candle-stick chart pattern of a bearish engulfing pattern last week (see chart 2). Accordingly, we have been in correction mode for the past few weeks: and, we still feel that way even if we get an oversold throwback rally in the short run. Indeed, 10% corrections tend to occur about every 26 months, yet it has been 45 months since the last 10% correction. And, the three previously longest such periods led to 10% pullbacks. I don t know if that is the case here, but it sure was in China overnight as shares fell an eyepopping 8%! Of course that has our preopening S&P 500 futures off around 6 points as the sun rises over Vanderbilt University here in Nashville Tennessee. Firewood anyone?! International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

3 Chart 1 McClellan Oscillator Source: Stockcharts.com Chart 2 S&P 500 Source: TC2000 International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

4 Important Investor Disclosures Raymond James & Associates (RJA) is a FINRA member firm and is responsible for the preparation and distribution of research created in the United States. Raymond James & Associates is located at The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716, (727) Non-U.S. affiliates, which are not FINRA member firms, include the following entities that are responsible for the creation and distribution of research in their respective areas: in Canada, Raymond James Ltd., Suite 2100, 925 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2, (604) ; in Latin America, Raymond James Latin America, Ruta 8, km 17, 500, Montevideo, Uruguay, ; in Europe, Raymond James Euro Equities SAS (also trading as Raymond James International), 40, rue La Boetie, 75008, Paris, France, , and Raymond James Financial International Ltd., Broadwalk House, 5 Appold Street, London, England EC2A 2AG, This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The securities discussed in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For clients in the United States: Any foreign securities discussed in this report are generally not eligible for sale in the U.S. unless they are listed on a U.S. exchange. This report is being provided to you for informational purposes only and does not represent a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security in any state where such a solicitation would be illegal. Investing in securities of issuers organized outside of the U.S., including ADRs, may entail certain risks. The securities of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the reporting requirements of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. There may be limited information available on such securities. Investors who have received this report may be prohibited in certain states or other jurisdictions from purchasing the securities mentioned in this report. Please ask your Financial Advisor for additional details and to determine if a particular security is eligible for purchase in your state. The information provided is as of the date above and subject to change, and it should not be deemed a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 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Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds and exchange traded funds. The prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing. For clients in the United Kingdom: For clients of Raymond James & Associates (London Branch) and Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended) or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This report is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients. For purposes of the Financial Conduct Authority requirements, this research report is classified as independent with respect to conflict of interest management. RJA, RJFI, and Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd. are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. For clients in France: International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

5 releasable resear ch Raymond James This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in Code Monétaire et Financier and Règlement Général de l Autorité des Marchés Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. For institutional clients in the European Economic Area (EEA) outside of the United Kingdom: This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. For Canadian clients: This report is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian analyst has contributed to the content of the report. In the case where there is Canadian analyst contribution, the report meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements. Proprietary Rights Notice: By accepting a copy of this report, you acknowledge and agree as follows: This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This is RJA client This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec.501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

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