scr.zacks.com 111 North Canal Street, Chicago, IL (DARA-NASDAQ) UPDATE ZACKS ESTIMATES
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1 Small-Cap Research January 22, 2014 Jason Napodano, CFA scr.zacks.com 111 North Canal Street, Chicago, IL DARA BioSciences, Inc. (DARA-NASDAQ) DARA: Insights From Meeting With Management Current Recommendation Buy Prior Recommendation Neutral Date of Last Change 09/13/2012 Current Price (01/22/14) $0.75 Target Price $1.50 UPDATE On Sunday, January 12, 2014, we arrived in San Francisco, CA for the annual JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, as well as the parallel Biotech showcase and OneMedForum Conferences. This was the eighth year in a row that we made the trip to San Francisco for these events, which are a mustattend for serious healthcare investors. During my three days in San Francisco, I conducted 25 oneon-one meetings with various managements of small and midcap biotechnology and specialty pharmaceutical companies. Below are some notes from our meeting with DARA BioSciences, Inc. SUMMARY DATA 52-Week High $ Week Low $0.45 One-Year Return (%) Beta 1.50 Average Daily Volume (sh) 1,573,074 Shares Outstanding (mil) 31 Market Capitalization ($mil) $22 Short Interest Ratio (days) 3.85 Institutional Ownership (%) 5 Insider Ownership (%) 5 Annual Cash Dividend $0.00 Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 Risk Level Type of Stock Industry ZACKS ESTIMATES High Small-Growth Med-Biomed/Gene Revenue (In millions of $) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) A 0 A 0 A 0.05 A 0.05 A A 0.08 A 0.14 A 0.12 E 0.36 E E E 5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates Sales (%) Earnings Per Share (%) Dividend (%) P/E using TTM EPS P/E using 2013 Estimate P/E using 2014 Estimate Earnings per Share (EPS is operating earnings before non recurring items) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) $0.29 A -$0.14 A -$0.16 A -$0.10 A -$0.60 A $0.11 A -$0.10 A -$0.10 A -$0.09 E -$0.40 E $0.29 E $0.16 E
2 WHAT S NEW Dara Biosciences Inc. (DARA) Meeting took place with Dr. David Drutz, MD, CEO, and Chris Clement, President and COO It was a great meeting with DARA Bio, but we ll cut directly to the chase and say right up front there was no update on the status of the pending orphan drug application for KRN5500. We ve covered this topic several times in 2013, and our most recent article can be found on Seeking-Alpha, so there s not much more to say on the subject. We spent the majority of the meeting talking about the recent sales force and product expansion and the companies now six commercial assets in Soltamox, Gelclair, Bionect, Binosto, Ferralet 90, and Aquoral. Below is a fantastic slide from the company s investor presentation showing how DARA plans to leverage these six products into becoming a big player in the oncology and supportive care specialty pharmaceutical market. Management told us the sales force expansion has been completed and the 20 new representatives should be in the field by the end of January The company spent much of December training and educating the new reps. There will be a national sales meeting in February 2014 to officially kick-off the new campaign. Throughout 2013, DARA had only five reps and three products. We expect that a four-fold increase in sales reps and a two-fold increase in product offerings will dramatically help drive the top-line in 2014 and beyond. We believe DARA s stock remains attractively valued. Revenues in 2012 were non-existent. For 2013, we model revenues at $0.35 million, again pretty low. However, based on the recent sales force expansion and the three new products DARA is now co-promoting from Mission Pharmacal, we think DARA can do over $2.0 million in revenues in 2014 and $10 million in revenues in DARA s market capitalization is only $22 million right now. If our modeling holds, the stock should be trading at over $1.00 by year-end 2014, and that is based solely on the six current marketed products and has no value for KRN5500. We think orphan drug designation on KRN5500 could triple the market value of the company. A licensing partner will probably be announced soon after the FDA s decision. Our conclusion is that investors can buy DARA now and get both an emerging specialty pharmaceutical story at a reasonable price, and a Phase 2b drug in KRN5500 for free. Zacks Investment Research Page 2
3 PROJECTED FINANCIALS DARA BioSciences, Inc. Income Statement DARA Bio 2011 A 2012 A Q1 A Q2 A Q3 A Q4 E 2013 E 2014 E 2015 E KRN5500 (CIPN) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Gelclair $0 $0 $0 $0.0 $0.09 $0.07 $0.16 $0.50 $1.50 Bionect (Co-promo royalty) $0 $0.0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0.10 $0.25 YOY Growth % Soltamox (tamoxifen) $0 $0.05 $0.02 $0.08 $0.05 $0.05 $0.20 $1.00 $3.00 YOY Growth % 408.4% 200.0% Mission Pharmacal Co-Promo $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1.00 $3.00 Total Revenues $0 $0.05 $0.02 $0.08 $0.14 $0.12 $0.36 $2.60 $7.75 YOY Growth % 628.4% 198.1% Cost of Goods Sold $0 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $0.12 $0.07 $0.06 $0.25 $0.75 Product Gross Margin % 17.3% 88.6% 10.7% 41.7% 82.8% 90.4% 90.3% SG&A + D&A $4.13 $6.93 $2.05 $2.30 $2.18 $2.50 $9.02 $11.00 $12.00 % SG&A % % 423.1% 154.8% R&D $2.63 $2.73 $0.68 $0.51 $0.45 $0.55 $2.20 $2.00 $2.00 % R&D % % 76.9% 25.8% Operating Income ($6.76) ($9.64) ($2.73) ($2.74) ($2.62) ($3.00) ($10.93) ($10.65) ($7.00) Operating Margin % Interest & Other Net $0.09 $0.60 $0.09 $0.07 ($0.02) ($0.00) ($0.01) ($0.01) ($0.01) Pre-Tax Income ($6.67) ($9.04) ($2.64) ($2.67) ($2.64) ($3.00) ($10.94) ($10.66) ($7.01) Taxes / Other ($0.2) ($1.30) $0.03 $0.00 $0.00 $0 $0 $0 $0 Tax Rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Non-Controlling Interest $0.31 $0.43 $0.14 $0.12 $0.10 $0.10 $0.46 $0.50 $0.50 Net Income ($6.17) ($7.31) ($2.52) ($2.55) ($2.53) ($2.90) ($10.48) ($10.16) ($6.51) YOY Growth 9.2% Net Margin % Reported EPS ($1.20) ($0.60) ($0.11) ($0.10) ($0.10) ($0.09) ($0.40) ($0.29) ($0.16) YOY Growth -33.6% -49.6% % -27.3% -43.9% Shares Outstanding Source: Zacks Investment Research, Inc. Jason Napodano, CFA
4 HISTORICAL ZACKS RECOMMENDATIONS
5 DISCLOSURES The following disclosures relate to relationships between Zacks Small-Cap Research ( Zacks SCR ), a division of Zacks Investment Research ( ZIR ), and the issuers covered by the Zacks SCR Analysts in the Small-Cap Universe. ANALYST DISCLOSURES I, Jason Napodano, CFA, hereby certify that the view expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the recommendations or views expressed in this research report. I believe the information used for the creation of this report has been obtained from sources I considered to be reliable, but I can neither guarantee nor represent the completeness or accuracy of the information herewith. Such information and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. INVESMENT BANKING, REFERRALS, AND FEES FOR SERVICE Zacks SCR does not provide nor has received compensation for investment banking services on the securities covered in this report. Zacks SCR does not expect to receive compensation for investment banking services on the Small-Cap Universe. Zacks SCR may seek to provide referrals for a fee to investment banks. Zacks & Co., a separate legal entity from ZIR, is, among others, one of these investment banks. Referrals may include securities and issuers noted in this report. Zacks & Co. may have paid referral fees to Zacks SCR related to some of the securities and issuers noted in this report. From time to time, Zacks SCR pays investment banks, including Zacks & Co., a referral fee for research coverage. Zacks SCR has received compensation for non-investment banking services on the Small-Cap Universe, and expects to receive additional compensation for non-investment banking services on the Small-Cap Universe, paid by issuers of securities covered by Zacks SCR Analysts. Non-investment banking services include investor relations services and software, financial database analysis, advertising services, brokerage services, advisory services, investment research, investment management, non-deal road shows, and attendance fees for conferences sponsored or co-sponsored by Zacks SCR. The fees for these services vary on a per client basis and are subject to the number of services contracted. Fees typically range between ten thousand and fifty thousand per annum. POLICY DISCLOSURES Zacks SCR Analysts are restricted from holding or trading securities in the issuers which they cover. ZIR and Zacks SCR do not make a market in any security nor do they act as dealers in securities. Each Zacks SCR Analyst has full discretion on the rating and price target based on his or her own due diligence. Analysts are paid in part based on the overall profitability of Zacks SCR. Such profitability is derived from a variety of sources and includes payments received from issuers of securities covered by Zacks SCR for services described above. No part of analyst compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in any report or article. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Additional information is available upon request. Zacks SCR reports are based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to be accurate nor do we purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, this report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed by Zacks SCR Analysts are subject to change without notice. Reports are not to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. ZACKS RATING & RECOMMENDATION ZIR uses the following rating system for the 1047 companies whose securities it covers, including securities covered by Zacks SCR: Buy/Outperform: The analyst expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to two quarters. Hold/Neutral: The analyst expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to two quarters. Sell/Underperform: The analyst expects the company will underperform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next one to two quarters. The current distribution is as follows: Buy/Outperform- 16.5%, Hold/Neutral- 77.7%, Sell/Underperform business day immediately prior to this publication. 5.1%. Data is as of midnight on the Zacks Investment Research Page 5
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