Special Notice. 2017, Copyright VectorVest, Inc.

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2 2017, Copyright VectorVest, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher and the copyright holder, VectorVest, Inc. Special Notice VectorVest, Inc. will do everything it can to insure the safety of your personal possessions while you are attending the Seminar. If you would like us to watch your computer during lunch, please take it to our registration table, where you will receive a claim check for it. In any event, we cannot assume any responsibility for lost or missing personal property.

3 VectorVest Welcome and Introduction

About VectorVest Stock Analysis & Portfolio Management Software provider In Business 30 Years Fourteen Countries (AU 1800 shares, USA 9000, Total 23 000) Software Mathematical, Rules based Uses

4 About VectorVest Stock Analysis & Portfolio Management Software provider In Business 30 Years Fourteen Countries (AU 1800 shares, USA 9000, Total ) Software Mathematical, Rules based Uses combination of fundamental and technical for share analysis Integrates this with a unique market timing system. To give share portfolio management tools to help subscribers decide when to buy shares, which shares to buy and how to manage their share portfolios using a variety of risk management techniques PowerPoint Slides 1

5 PowerPoint Slides To get a copy of these PowerPoint Slides Place In Browser: reports/event/auworryfreeinvesting.pdf Safe Shares are necessary in this Market 2

Share Market Risks in 2017 Overall expect more volatility and risk in 2017 Global Trump/USA China Brexit EU Other Russia, Japan, Iran Local Political

6 Share Market Risks in 2017 Overall expect more volatility and risk in 2017 Global Trump/USA China Brexit EU Other Russia, Japan, Iran Local Political Environment Debt, Budget Deficit, AAA Credit rating Inflation, Interest Rates, Company Earnings AUD/USD Property vs Shares vs Bonds Typical SMSF Share Portfolio 3

7 Performance of this Portfolio NAB RESEARCH One in two Australians falling short on wealth goals 50 per cent blame lack of confidence One in four have a plan to save and invest Funding a desired lifestyle was key objective On average require about $ investments (excluding home equity) * MLC Wealth Sentiment Survey Dec

8 There are Opportunities USA is going well Pro Business President and Administration Anecdotal feedback from small and medium business owners Lower company & individual tax rates Infrastructure Investment USA Share Market 5

9 There are Opportunities Positive outlook from RBA According to FN Arena: Over the past 4 months Australia Hefty profit upgrades by analysts Average EPS forecasts for the share market in 2017 increased from 6 7% to between 13 19% A big chunk of this growth won't show up until the August reporting season, but even so the underlying trend is firmly upwards and by then the average might well be a lot higher If these numbers still stand by the end of August, the Australian share market might well be about to experience its strongest year for profit growth post GFC Commodities/Resources Sector Shares with USA exposure Global Factors will continue to create volatility which increases risk But in this environment, with the right tools, you can capitalise on the opportunities to Maximise Returns and Minimize/Manage Risks created by expected volatility 6

10 WFI Terminology Minimise Risk Capital Preservation Safe Shares strong financial performance (strong fundamentals) Safe Shares stable price pattern (strong technical) Maximise Returns Growth and Income Safe Shares that are undervalued, going up in price with potential for further Capital Appreciation Safe Shares with Safe, Reliable Dividends with Franking credits Safe Shares with growing dividends underpinned by growing earnings Worry Free Investing You need the Best Investing Tools available to suit your: Investment Objectives Investment Style Risk Appetite 7

11 Worry Free Investing Agenda 09:00 Welcome and Introduction 09:10 The VectorVest System For Analyzing Shares 09:30 Assessing the Health of Your Portfolio 09:45 When to Buy Shares and When to Protect your Portfolio 10:15 Break 10:45 Replacing the Losers with the Best Worry Free Shares 11:15 Build and Manage a Worry Free Portfolio in all Market Conditions 12:15 VectorVest Coaching, Support and Training 12:30 Adjourn

12 Worry Free Investing Workshop The VectorVest System for Analyzing Shares 9:10am 9:30am

13 The VectorVest WFI System VectorVest believes in: Buying safe undervalued shares rising in price in rising markets and protecting your portfolio in falling markets. The VectorVest System VectorVest believes every Investor should know: What a share is Really Worth. How Safe it Is. When to Buy, Sell or Hold. 1

14 VectorVest Share Analysis Technique 1. Spread Sheet Analysis snap shot 2. Graph Analysis trend 1. Spread Sheet Analysis For Definitions, right click on any share to View Full Stock Analysis Report 2

1. Spread Sheet Analysis To change Spread Sheet Columns, right click on any share & choose layout, highlight indicator & move up, down, left or right Value Value is

15 1. Spread Sheet Analysis To change Spread Sheet Columns, right click on any share & choose layout, highlight indicator & move up, down, left or right Value Value is computed from: Forecasted earnings per share Forecasted earnings growth Profitability Interest rates Inflation rates Undervalued shares are preferred to overvalued shares 3

16 Relative Value An Indicator of Long Term Price Appreciation Potential Price, Value, Earnings Growth, Relative Safety (Risk), and Corporate Bond Rates are used to compute Relative Value. Relative Safety An Indicator of Risk Consistency and Predictability of Financial Performance are the Primary Factors in Assessing Relative Safety. 4

17 Relative Timing An Indicator of Short Term Price Trend The Direction, Magnitude and Dynamics of Price History are used to determine Relative Timing. VST Vector The Master Indicator VST Vector combines RV, RS and RT into a single comprehensive indicator. This combination incorporates both fundamental and technical analysis. 5

18 Stop Price An Indicator of When to Sell or Cover a Position A 13 Week Moving Average of Closing Prices adjusted for the fundamentals of RV and RS is used to compute Stop Price. Shares Ranked by Recommendation Company Sym. Price Value RV RS RT VST STOP REC A2 Milk Co A2M.AX Com. Bank CBA.AX TPG Telecom TPM.AX *Analysis as of 07/03/2016 6

19 The VectorVest System Buy, Sell or Hold Criteria 1. Price > Stop Price 2. VST > 1 3. RT > 1 4. Price must be diverging away from Stop Price Price < Stop Price Price > Stop, but any one of the other three factors needed to receive a Buy are not met. Comfort Index An Indicator of Long Term Price Stability Reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines 7

20 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Leading 12 months Forecast Earnings Per Share Determined from a combination of : Recent earnings performance and Traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts. Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) Reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. 8

21 Dividend Growth Forecasted annual % growth rate of a company's dividend based on historical dividend payments and dividend predictability Dividend Safety (DS) An indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or higher rates for the foreseeable future. Shares with high DS values have shown consistently strong financial performance and including solid cash flow. 9

22 Franking (Imputation) Credits Tax Credit Paid by issuing company Can add 2 3% to dividend return 2. Graph Analysis VectorVest Simple Rules Smooth rising left to right price patterns Respect of stop line Rising RT Rising EPS (The engine of share price growth) 10

23 Worry Free Investing Workshop Assessing the Health of Your Portfolio 9:30am 9:45am

24 Create a Watchlist of Your Shares Use Watchlist to Analyse your Shares 1

25 Using QuickTest Tool Use QuickTest to Count Winners & Losers and measure raw performance. Use Graphs to Complete Your Share Analysis 2

26 Analysing your Shares Good Shares Undervalued (Price<Value) RV>1 RS>1 RT>1 VST>1 B rated CI>1 Growing Earnings per Share Use Graphs to Complete Your Share Analysis 3

27 Use Graphs to Complete Your Share Analysis VectorVest Simple Rules Smooth rising left to right price patterns Respect of stop line Rising RT Rising EPs (The engine of share price growth) Example of a Good Graph 4

28 Example of a Bad Graph Cleansing your Portfolio Identify the shares dragging your portfolio down by re ranking WatchList by RT The underperformers are those with: RT < 1 REC = S To confirm underperformance, graph each share using VV Simple graph layout 5

29 Worry Free Investing Workshop When to Buy Shares and When to Protect Your Portfolio 9:45am 10:15am

30 Big Mistake Investors Make: 1

31 Market Direction Direction is the key to making money in any market. Being on the wrong side of the market is the worst thing that can happen to an investor. It doesn t have to happen to you. P. 70 Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense Market Timing Graph Used to Help you Decide When to Buy Shares (and When to Protect Your Portfolio) 2

32 Worry Free Market Timing Market Timing Graph 3

33 Worry Free Market Timing The Worry Free Investing makes use of the Confirmed Signals 1. The confirmed signal is our most conservative market signal 2. You will get into the market when uptrend established and out of the market when downtrend established. 3. By using confirmed signals you are less likely to experience false signals from the market 4. Let the winners run and protect your portfolio by money management/stop losses. Most Frequently used Market Timing Signals Confirmed Signal (most conservative) We will use this Signal for Worry Free Investing. For Buy Signal Confirmed Up plus Green light in price column Protect Portfolio on Confirmed Down DEW Signal (Protrader Technical) GLB/RT Kicker Signal (Technical) Uses 5 and 20 day simple moving average of RT. Buy Signal when 5 DMA> 20 DMA plus Green light in price column Protect Portfolio on Confirmed Down 4

34 VectorVest Break 10:15am 10:45pm

35 Worry Free Investing Workshop Replacing Losers with the Best Worry Free Shares 10:45am 11:15am

36 Finding Replacement Shares Know your investment style and risk appetite Make sure the market is going up! Analyse Shares using VectorVest Indicators and Graphs Finding Replacement Shares Investment Styles & Strategies 1

37 The VectorVest WFI System VectorVest believes in: Buying safe undervalued shares rising in price in rising markets and protecting your portfolio in falling markets. Managing Market Trends BUY SAFEST STOCKS How it Works: DON T BUY SELL STOCKS WHEN STOPPED OUT 2

38 When to Buy Shares Confirmed Up Signal Green Light in Price Column of Color Guard What Shares to Buy Stock Viewer Spreadsheet Analysis Preferably Undervalued RS>1 (RS is the key for Worry Free Investing!) VST>1 B Rated CI>1 EPS>O DY, DS>50, DG>0 3

39 Finding Replacement Shares using Stock Viewer What Shares to Buy VectorVest Simple Graph Analysis Smooth rising left to right price pattern Respect of stop line Rising RT Rising EPS (The engine of share price growth) 4

DiLiddo Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense Pg.

40 Using VectorVest Simple Graph Safe Shares Earnings Consistency The single most important factor in assessing stock safety Dr. DiLiddo Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense Pg. 31 Companies with a record of consistent predictable earnings are less risky Correlation between Price Stability and Earnings Earnings underpins Dividend Safety 5

41 Earnings Consistency Graph Analysis Safe shares have Earnings Consistency Earnings Consistency Graph Analysis 6

42 Earnings Consistency Graph Analysis Unsafe Share Earnings Problem Correlation between Long Term Price Stability and Earnings 7

43 Correlation between Long Term Price Stability and Earnings Correlation between Long Term Price Stability and Earnings 8

44 Strong Earnings Underpin Dividends Falling Earnings and Dividend Sustainability 9

45 Graph Analysis Sustainable Dividend? Graph Analysis Sustainable Dividend? 10

46 Graph Analysis Sustainable Dividend? NAB profit edges down in December quarter unaudited cash earnings fell 1% in Dec 2016 quarter (07 February 2017) 11

47 Worry Free Investing Workshop Build and Manage a Worry Free Portfolio in all Market Conditions 11:15am 12:15am

48 Managing a Worry Free Portfolio Money Management Rules Never risk more than 1 2% of your capital Spread risk evenly across shares No more than 2 shares per industry Buy into rising market one at a time Never give back more than 50% of your profit Never risk more than 1% of your capital $ x 1% = $ Positions of $ each $ 1000/$10 000=10% stop Loss $ x 1% = $ Positions of $5 000 each $ 1000/$5 000=20% stop Loss $ x 1% = $500 5 Positions of $ each $ 500/$10 000=5% stop Loss 1

49 Tools used to Manage a Worry Free Portfolio Watchlists Graphs Managing a Worry Free Portfolio Graph Graph using VV Simple High alert Volatility Falling EPS Action triggers 4 Step Method of Portfolio Management Falling price: 1st warning Cuts 40 DMA: 2nd warning RT<1: 3rd warning REC=S: 4th and last warning Act on appropriate warning depending on your risk appetite, but most investors would get out on 2nd or 3rd warning and not leave it until REC=S which is the last resort 2

50 Managing a Worry Free Portfolio WatchList Example: Managing a Worry Free Portfolio 3

51 Replacing the Losers Golden Rule: Only Buy Rising Shares in Rising Markets Step 1: Go to Market Timing Graph to get Market Direction, and if OK.. Step 2: Go to Stockviewer to find Replacement Shares & Graph them The Most Common Mistake New Subscribers Make Go to StockViewer and Buy Top B Rated Shares without doing anything else No checking what the market is doing (Market Timing) No Spreadsheet and/or Graph Analysis No 4 step management rules or stop losses 4

Example for Discussion Example for Discussion Buy Top 2 StockViewer Shares on C/Dn 24

52 Example for Discussion Example for Discussion Buy Top 2 StockViewer Shares on C/Dn Buy Top 2 StockViewer on C/Up 14 Dec 16 Hold until 21 June Hold until 24 June 17 5

53 What Investors Should Do Before Deciding to Buy 1. Check What The Market is doing ensure: Confirmed Up Green Light in Price Column of Color Guard 2. Then Go to StockViewer and perform: Spread Sheet Analysis Graph Analysis 3. Ensure Shares meet your Worry Free Criteria before final decision 4. Ensure you use 4 step management rules or put your stop losses in place Final Wrap up Minimize Risk (Capital Preservation) & Maximise Returns (Growth & Income) Buy safe undervalued shares that are rising in price in Rising Markets The potential to go up in value Good fundamentals (especially earnings) Stable price patterns (strong technicals) Reliable, Growing Dividends with Franking Credits Always Use Spreadsheet Analysis Graph Analysis Keep It Simple with: 6

54 Worry Free Investing Workshop VectorVest Coaching, Support & Training 12:15pm

Resources for Your Success 1. Welcome Tab Interactive Tutorials and Videos 2. Training Tab 3 Quickstart Videos, Help Files, VectorVest 7 Quick Reference Guide 3.

55 Resources for Your Success 1. Welcome Tab Interactive Tutorials and Videos 2. Training Tab 3 Quickstart Videos, Help Files, VectorVest 7 Quick Reference Guide 3. Personal Coaching Recommended after you complete the above 4. Webinars 5. VectorVest University SOTW and other Training Videos 6. User Groups Check Locations and Dates Friday s in Views 7. Dr. DiLiddo s Little Green Book Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense 8. Support and Training Call Home Page 1

56 Training Tab Mission Statement Our Mission is to provide the best stock market guidance available anywhere at any price. 2

57 VectorVest Contact Information Seminars: Product Support and Training: E mail: support@vectorvest.com russellmarkham@vectorvest.com

58 VectorVest Adjourn 12:30pm

Training Tuesday. Time Stamps. Navigating VectorVest 7. provided by your host Glenn Thompkins

Training Tuesday. Time Stamps. Navigating VectorVest 7. provided by your host Glenn Thompkins Training Tuesday Navigating VectorVest 7 Time Stamps provided by your host Glenn Thompkins Session 1 The Homepage What is the Homepage 11:39 What is the Dashboard 52:10 What is the Color Guard 14:07 How