Momentum in Imperial Russia
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1 Momentum in Imperial Russia William Goetzmann 1 Simon Huang 2 1 Yale School of Management 2 Independent May 15,2017 Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
2 Momentum: robust puzzle - Buy last year s winners & short last year s losers. Hold 6 months. Make excess profits. Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) US International evidence (Rouwenhorst, 1998, 1999) - Historical evidence: US, Geczy & Samonov (2016) - UK 19 th century Chabot et al. (2008) - Other asset markets (everywhere) Asness & Moskowitz (2013) - High Sharpe ratio - Signs of reversal after a year - Occasional extreme crashes
3 Theories - Time-varying expected returns - Compensation for risk - Prevalent (or salient) behavioral biases - Under-reaction - Over-reaction - Institutional and/or informational frictions
4
5 This paper: Test some theories with old (new) data The St. Petersburg Stock Exchange in Un-snooped sample No evidence of delegated management Financial crises in the sample period Regulatory change in 1893 exogenous to momentum changes market participation Main findings: Momentum profits as high as 77 bps per month (t-stat = 6.25) Significantly stronger momentum effect after 1893 No evidence of momentum crashes in this sample of almost 50 years Reject some theories: Data-snooping Institutional Crash risk correlation Under-reaction to information Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
6 Explanation I: delegated management Lou (2012) and Vayanos and Woolley (2013): flows into and between institutional money managers = weak momentum profits in our entire sample due to lack of delegated management Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
7 Explanations II & III: Behavioral On June 8, 1893, PSZ removed all restrictions prohibiting purchases of stock in the absence of cash and with future delivery. A national speculative episode followed. Many people bought stocks for the first time. Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Subrahmanyam (1998): investor overconfidence about the precision of private information = lower momentum profits pre-1893 due to (proportionally) more sophisticated investors Hong and Stein (1999): slow diffusion of information = lower momentum profits post-1893 due to lower informational frictions Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
8 Regulatory Background 1836 debate & law
9 June, 1893 Law
10 Speculation in 1893
11 Data ( ) End-of-month stock prices and annual dividends from various historical archives 543 firms 38,090 monthly returns Price-weighted SPSE index as market portfolio Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
12 Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
13 Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
14 The SPSE index Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
15 Summary statistics of the SPSE index (Table 1) Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
16 Returns of momentum portfolios (Table 2) There is a one-month gap between the formation period and the holding period in Panel B Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
17 Returns of momentum portfolios (Table 2), cont d There is a one-month gap between the formation period and the holding period in Panel B Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
18 Performance of 6-month/6-month momentum Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
19 Risk-adjusted returns: CAPM alphas Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
20 Market dependent risk-adjusted returns (Table 3) Adjust returns by running regressions of the form r t = α + β + U t r M,t + β (1 U t )r M,t + E t Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
21 The effects of PSZ on momentum Daniel, Hirshleifer, and Subrahmanyam (1998): lower momentum profitspre-1893 Hong and Stein (1999): lower momentum profitspost-1893 Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
22 Test for structural change on momentum profits supf -statistic = (p = 0.01) Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
23 Did composition of market participants change? This 1893 regulatory change removed constraints that were presumably more binding for small, less sophisticated investors = did it increase market participation by these investors? We investigate its effects on liquidity to test this argument Glosten and Milgrom (1985): risk-neutral market maker sets bid-ask spread allowing expected noise-trading profits to offset expected informed-trading losses = liquidity should improve when there are more noise traders Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
24 The effects of PSZ on liquidity (Table 4) Following Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad (2007), our (inverse) liquidity measure is the price-weighted proportion of zero monthly returns Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
25 Crash risk compensation? Daniel and Moskowitz (2016) document momentum crashes in the U.S. from 1927 to 2010 Skewness = Ten worst monthly returns range from -28% to -79% Could momentum profits be compensating for bearing crash risk? Important to know more about their frequency andmagnitude Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
26 Skewness (Table 6) Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
27 Minimum & maximum (Table 6) Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
28 In search of momentum crashes Daniel and Moskowitz (2013) document momentum crashes in the U.S. from 1927 to 2010 Skewness = Ten worst monthly returns range from -28% to -79% Could momentum profits be compensating for bearing crash risk? Important to know more about their frequency and magnitude Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in 23 / 33
29 Over-reaction or under-reaction? Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
30 Big stocks vs. small stocks Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
31 Conclusion Eliminates data-snooping theory Eliminates institutional theory Weakens crash risk theory Weakens under-reaction theory Goetzmann & Huang Momentum in Imperial Russia May 15, /33
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