Hong Kong. In Focus. Market Talk. Morning Bulletin 30 August Research Team SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

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1 Hong Kong Morning Bulletin Research Team Edward FUNG Head of Research (852) Ivan CHEUNG, CFA (852) Ivan LI, CFA (852) Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) Andy POON (852) Alex YEUNG (852) Jeremy TAN (852) In Focus McapUSD16.4b ADTV USD15.4m CN: Want Want China (151) Food & Beverages De-rating risk mounting on lower growth SELL TP HKD8.43 Consensus: 11 Buys, 17 Holds and 3 Sell, Consensus target HKD9.75 Event: WW s NP growth of 38% YoY was in line with our estimates as weak sales were offset by a 4ppt YoY GM expansion and improved OPEX efficiency. Of note, GP/OP were up by 34%/46%, respectively. Solid snack food sales and decent profitability were the key positive, while its blended GM should trend up HoH in 2H12 following the depletion of high-cost milk powder inventory. Key negative is the revision of its FY12E dry food sales guidance from 20% to 10-15%. Implication: Softening top-line growth and growing pressure to increase its OPEX will lead to a decline of its profit CAGR to 20.3% over FY12F-14F, from our original estimate of 25.3%. Our rationale is WW s above-industry profitability is likely to fade gradually as its current low A&P expense of 3-4% is not sustainable. Also, with its Hot-Kid Milk making up 47% of its total sales, its overall sales and margins are getting more volatile due to the increasing product concentration. We see the rising competition within the beverage space to be key threat ahead. Action: We adjust our FY12/13/14E earnings estimates by (3%)/(11%)/(16%) on lower sales growth assumptions. Our new TP HKD8.43 is based on 23X FY13 PER, which is in line with its other leading F&B peers, compared to our previous target PER of 25X. Market Talk McapUSD7.3 ADTV USD18m CN: China CITIC Bank (998) Ivan Li Banking Results not perfect, but still very impressive BUY TP HKD5.30 Consensus: 16 Buys, 22 Holds and 1 Sell, Consensus target HKD4.64 Event: 1H12 net profit was CNY19.4b, up 29% YoY. Results were significantly higher than our estimates (CNY18.1b), which was already at the high end of market consensus (range: CNY b, median: CNY17.7b). Key Indices Index Last % Change HSI 19, HSCEI 9, Light Crude BDI Q12 net interest income rose by 2% QoQ, and CNCB s NII managed to rise for 3 consecutive quarters, while some banks reported opposite trends in 2Q12. 2Q12 estimated NIM was 267bps, down only 3bps QoQ. The fall in NIM was widely expected, and it held up better than peers average. Implication: CNCB s 2Q12 loan provisions fell by 90% QoQ, and therefore the 1H12 provisions were lower than expected. It would be safe to say such low provision would not be sustainable. Our old estimates seem to be conservative enough though. SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

2 One can surely argue that CNCB s seemingly low 2Q12 provision charges were due to under-provisions. This argument is not too convincing to us. CNBC s results would still be better than our estimates and market consensus even if it made 100% provisions to the new NPLs. While NPL amount rose by 10% YTD, it is still on-track with our old projection of 30% growth in FY12 NPL amount. We are still comfortable with the asset qualities. Core and total CAR continued to improve during 2Q12, and Jun12 core/total CAR were 10.1/13.4%. There would be no risk of equity fund raising in the next 12 months, in our view. Action: The overall results look impressive, if not perfect. We revise up our earnings estimates slightly, and maintain our BUY rating on CNCB. We raise our TP slightly from HKD5.2 to HKD5.3, equivalent to 1x revised FY12E book value. China CITIC Bank Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (CNYm) 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F Revenue 77,092 88, , ,729 Profit before tax 41,590 46,290 49,532 53,979 Recurring Net Profit 30,819 34,718 37,149 40,484 Recurring Basic EPS (CNY) EPS growth (%) DPS (CNY) PER (x) Div Yield (%) P/BV(x) ROE (%) ROA (%) Consensus Net Profit (CNYm) N/A 33,182 35,086 39,434 McapUSD2.5b ADTV USD1.6m CN: China Foods (506) Food & Beverages Better profitability BUY TP HKD8.91 Consensus: 11 Buys, 7 Holds and 2 Sell, Consensus target HKD7.91 Event: CF s 1H12 NP of HKD474m (+50% YoY) beat our estimates by 7% on a lower effective tax rate. EBIT grew 25% YoY despite weak sales growth of 16% YoY, on improved cost efficiency following the adoption of a new organisational structure. Key positives are a 6ppt YoY EBIT margin increment at its wine division due to cost cutting, and narrowing losses at its confectionery segment. Looking ahead, we expect wine sales growth to accelerate on enhanced market coverage and product innovation, while segmental gross margins are set to improve on the back of a better portfolio mix, though there is minimal room for further cost cutting. We expect volume growth at its beverage bottling unit in the low to mid teens over the near to medium term given intense market competition, yet its EBIT margin is expected to remain at current levels, as lower-cost packaging is offset by higher OPEX and a growing sales contribution from lowermargin water products. Regarding its other business segments, we believe the operating outlook is improving. Implication: We expect consistent profitability enhancement and above-industry profit growth rate ahead to narrow CF s valuation gaps against its peers. Overall, we project its net margin to improve from 2.3% in FY11 to 3.9% in FY14E while its ROE will increase from 10.2% in FY11 to 19% in FY14E. Action: We adjust our FY12/13/14E projections by 14%/3%/0% on weaker sales growth but lower cost assumptions. Maintain BUY. Our new TP of HKD8.91 is based on 18.0X FY13 PER, against its 3-year projected profit CAGR of 38.8%. Page 2 of 7

3 McapUSD12.0b ADTV USD20.7m CN: Hengan (1044) Consumer Growth to improve but in-price HOLD TP HKD75.5 Consensus: 15 Buys, 10 Holds and 4 Sell, Consensus target HKD82.77 Event: Hengan reported its 1H12 results yesterday. Its top-line growth of 10% YoY missed our expectations, but this was offset by stellar gross margin expansion of 5.6ppts YoY. EBIT and NP were up by 59% and 38% YoY respectively. Headline NP of HKD1.63b was in line with our estimates. Sales of its tissues/sanitary napkins/diapers/snack foods were up by 13%/23%/7%/(6%) YoY, with solid margin improvements across the board. The weak tissue sales growth was attributable to insufficient capacity; as of July, new capacities were all being gradually installed. Growth momentum has since picked up, on the back of increased promotional efforts. Tissue GM increased by 4.7ppts YoY thanks to lower pulp cost and a better sales mix. We expect the decent GM to sustain in 2H12E as Hengan still has cheap inventory on hand. On the sanitary napkins front, its high-end Princess series was launched at the end of June, one quarter ahead of its original guidance, as the products were well-received by the market. Meanwhile, a more extensive promotional campaign will be launched from August onward to boost sales of Hengan s diapers, hence its sales growth momentum is expected to accelerate in 2H12. However, we are still cautious on the growth outlook for this segment, considering the intensifying market competition. Implication: We expect better sales growth momentum across the board to be a near-term share price catalyst. However, we believe the current valuations have already factored in decent sales growth at its sanitary napkins and tissue divisions. A key upside risk is better-than-expected diaper sales. Action: We have fine-tuned our estimates by 2%/(1%)/0.2% in FY12/13/14E to reflect the upside risk for GM but lower sales assumptions. Our new TP of HKD75.5 is based on 23X FY13 PER McapUSD1.7b ADTV USD4.1m CN: Vinda (3331) Consumer Big Earnings miss on exceptional items Recommendation under review TP under review Consensus: 16 Buys, 1 Holds and 1 Sell, Consensus target HKD14.74 Event: Vinda reported a mixed set of results last night. In short, although top-line growth surprised us on the upside and SG&A cost increases were in line with our expectations, GM expansion fell short of our estimates, while exceptional items were a significant drag on net profit. Vinda s OP/NP was up by 54%/35% YoY on the back of 32% YoY revenue growth. Headline NP of HKD258m was 24%/20 below our/street s estimates. We attribute the discrepancy to several factors in addition to the weaker-than-expected gross margins, including: i) other income & gains of HKD0.4m (1H11: HKD10.2m); ii) a net forex transaction loss of HKD4.5m (1H11: gain of HKD20m); iii) losses from associates of HKD3m (1H11: loss of HKD0.8m); iv) amortisation of share option expenses of HKD32m (1H11: HKD17m). Implication: We expect the market react negatively to the big miss on headline net profit, as well as the lower-than-expected gross margin expansion. Action: We will review our estimates and recommendation following the analyst briefing at 10am HKT today. Our last recommendation was BUY, with a target price of HKD14.3. Page 3 of 7

4 McapUSD3.7b ADTV USD2.0m CN: China Communications Services (552) Andy Poon Technology Prefer Infrastructure Player BUY TP under review Consensus: 17 Buys, 2 Holds and 1 Sell, Consensus target HKD4.72 Event: Unlike other Chinese equipment suppliers which reported earnings drop or net loss for the interims, CCS reported year-on-year growths in revenue and net profit for 1H12. Yet, its interim result was largely in line with market and our expectations. Implication: Revenue from PRC telcos increased 19% YoY and accounted for 65% of its total revenue in 1H12. As China is promoting broadband city and mobile internet, and the PRC telcos are raising capex to expand and upgrade the fibre-optic broadband and 3G/4G networks, we anticipate CCS, an integrated support service provider in telecom infrastructure, business process outsourcing and IT solution, will benefit from the accelerating capex by the telcos. SOEs and government also support earnings growth. Revenue from PRC nonoperators grew 15% YoY and accounted for 31% of its total revenue in 1H12. Major projects during 1H12 included: communication system construction for China Oil, "Safe City" project for Song Jiang City of Shanghai, etc.. Given China is promoting "Smart Cities" and the demand of communication and IT solution services is rising, we believe CCS, with good relationship with SOEs and non- SOEs, will maintain a stable earnings growth in this market. Overseas revenue dropped. Management explained the revenue drop in the overseas market for 1H12 was due to project delays and was confident it would resume to grow in 2H12F. However, we are sceptical on this prospect due to the slowdown of the global economy. However, we expect it will have a limited impact to CCS's earnings as the overseas business only accounted for 4% of the total revenue for 1H12. Action: Current share is now trading at 8.8x PER of our FY13F estimate with 4.6% dividend yield (vs. 8.5x PER of market FY13F estimate with 4.6% dividend yield). We expect the market to react positively to its resilient earnings even though the interim result is largely in line with market expectation. We will review our earnings estimate and target price and issue an update note shortly. Currently, we have a BUY with a target price of HKD4.60. Figure 1: Result review (CNYb) 1H11 % of revenues (restated) 2H11 1H12 YoY% HoH% 1H11 2H11 1H12 Total revenues Direct personnel (10.6) Materials Subcontracting D&A (6.3) Others (12.7) Total costs of revenue Gross profit (0.9) SG&A (7.4) Net profit Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities Figure 2: Revenue by Customer (CNYb) 1H11 % of revenues (restated) 2H11 1H12 YoY% HoH% 1H11 2H11 1H12 China Telecom (4.3) China Mobile and Unicom Domestic operators Domestic non-operators Overseas customers (9.8) (46.7) Total revenues Source: Company data, Kim Eng Securities Page 4 of 7

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