MONTHLY PROPERTY REPORT

Transcription

1 MONTHLY PROPERTY REPORT 18 JA NUARY 218 REINZ - Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc.

2 Strong end to 217, with house prices up 5.8% in December says REINZ Median house prices across New Zealand rose by 5.8% year-on-year to $55, up from $52, in December 216 and median prices for New Zealand excluding Auckland increased by 6.6% to $45, (up from $422, in December 16) according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand. Auckland s median house price increased 1.8% in December to $87, up from $855, compared to December 216. Bindi Norwell, REINZ CEO This price growth is consistent with what we have observed with the REINZ HPI. 13 out of 16 regions saw prices increase in December, with three of those regions experiencing record prices: Waikato up 11.7% year-on-year to $525, (a $35, increase since November 17 and a $55, increase since December 16) Bay of Plenty up 2.4% year-on-year to $598, (a $23, increase since November 17 and a $11,5 increase since December 16) Wellington up 4.7% to $56, (a $1, increase since November 17 and a $25, increase since December 16). Three regions saw a price decrease year-on-year Marlborough (down 2.1% to $372,), West Coast (down 1.6% to $185,) and Canterbury (down.7% to $439,). Bindi Norwell, Chief Executive at REINZ says: Median house prices across New Zealand have increased 5.8% in December, representing an increase of $3, since the same time last year. This increase defi es the predictions of many commentators who 12 or 13 months ago were adamant that house prices would fall in 217. While the increase will be welcome news to those looking to sell their property, for those first home buyers this will not have been the Christmas present they were hoping for. Although there is some hope as the rate of price increases has decreased signifi cantly compared to previous years meaning that if the trend continues, there is more of a chance that those saving for a house deposit can keep up with increasing property prices, continues Norwell. When looking at the Auckland picture, this is the fi rst time that all seven districts have had a median price of in excess of $7, highlighting how expensive the city is becoming. Additionally, North Shore City has reached a record median price of $1,113, the nearest the price has been to this point previously was $1,15, in November 216, points out Norwell. KEY DATA SUMMARY Median house price year-on-year National National ex Auckland Auckland $55, - up from $52, + 5.8% year-on-year $45, - up from $422, + 6.6% year-on-year $87, - up from $855, +1.8% year-on-year Seasonally adjusted median house price National Up 1.7%, up 5.9% on December 216 National ex Auckland Down.4%, up 6.6% on December 216 Auckland Up.5%, up 2.% on December 216 Median house price month-on-month National National ex-auckland Auckland $55, - up from $54, + 1.9% since last month $45, - same as last month $87, - down from $88, - 1.1% since last month Median days to sell National National ex-auckland Auckland 32-1 day longer than same month last year 3 - same as same month last year 34 - same as same month last year REINZ House Price Index National National ex-auckland Auckland up from % year-on-year up from % year-on-year up from % year-on-year 2

3 VOLUMES STILL STRUGGLING The number of properties sold in December across New Zealand decreased by 1.1% to 5,93 down from 6,567 in December 216 and the number of properties sold in New Zealand excluding Auckland decreased by 11.6% to 4,184 (down from 4,733 in December 216). Auckland volumes decreased by 6.4% to 1,693 (down from 1,88 in December 216). Nelson was the only region to experience an increase year-on-year with 76 sales compared with 71 sales in December 216. Regions with the biggest decrease were: Gisborne a decrease of 3.6% (43 properties vs 62 in December 216) Northland a decrease of 23.4% (177 properties vs 231 in December 216) Southland a decrease of 21.4% (136 properties vs 173 in December 216) West Coast a decrease of 2.6% (27 properties vs 34 in December 216). December represented a continuation of the theme we have seen throughout 217, whereby the number of properties sold across New Zealand decreased every month when compared with the same month in 216. It s a tough comparison, because 215 and 216 were very strong years for the industry, and set quite a high bar, so any comparison was always going to be more moderate beside these outlier years, says Norwell. Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) Chief Executive Bindi Norwell says: On a positive note, there were a number of areas that saw an increase in the number of properties sold. For example, the Rangitikei District saw a 9.9% volume increase year-onyear (21 sales up from 11 in December 216), the Buller District saw a 5% volume increase yearon-year (12 sales up from 8 in December 216), Auckland s Franklin District saw a 41.4% volume increase year-on-year (99 sales up from 7 in December 216) and the Waitaki District saw a 32.4% volume increase year-on-year (45 sales up from 34 in December 216), continues Norwell. When looking at the seasonally adjusted sales volumes in December compared to November, the figures are far more positive, showing that sales volumes were actually higher than we would anticipate for this time of year, she continues. 3

4 DAYS TO SELL Increased/Decreased The median number of days to sell a property nationally increased by 1 day (from 31 to 32) when compared to December 216. Regionally, West Coast saw the biggest increase in the number of days to sell (up 26 days to 189), followed by Taranaki (up 9 days to 36), Nelson (up 8 days to 29) and Tasman (up 7 days to 3). 8.1% Regions with the biggest decreases year-onyear included Gisborne and Southland (both down 3 days to 28 days) and Hawke s Bay (down 2 days to 27) the lowest number of days to sell for the month of December in 9 years. 1.8% REINZ HOUSE PRICE INDEX (HPI) The REINZ House Price Index for New Zealand increased 3.8% year-on-year to 2,655. The HPI for New Zealand excluding Auckland increased 6.8% from December 216 and Auckland s HPI increased.7% for the same period. R 11.7% 2.4% R 7.% The REINZ HPI also showed that five regions (Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Tasman/ Nelson/ Marlborough/West Coast, Otago and Southland) all reached new highs during December indicating strong value growth in these areas. Regions with the highest growth year-on-year were Gisborne/Hawke s Bay (up 15.% to 2,332), Southland (up 13.4% to 2457) and Manawatu/Wanganui (up 11.% to 2,437). As there appears to be less urgency for buyers to purchase a property, as well as for vendors to sell their property, we ve seen sales count drop and the days to sell increase during 217. However, as vendors have been holding steadfast to their pricing expectations, we ve still seen the price of properties going up, which is reflected here in the increased HPI, points out Norwell. -1.6% 12.2% 2.9% 14.% 11.% -2.1% 4.7% 17.7% R -.7% MEDIAN PRICE CHANGE YEAR-ON-YEAR 12.% NATIONAL: UP 5.8% TO $55, R RECORD MEDIAN PRICES 5.1% Waikato $525, Bay of Plenty $598, Wellington $56, 4

5 AUCTIONS In December, auctions represented 14% of all properties sold in New Zealand, down from 18% in December 216. This represents 827 properties sold under the hammer, down from 1,154 properties in December 216. Of those 827 properties sold by auction, more than half (55% - or 455 properties) were in Auckland, 13% were in Canterbury (15 properties), 8% were in Waikato (68 properties), 4.5% were in Wellington (38 properties) and 4% were from Otago (29 properties). The remainder were spread across the rest of the country. INVENTORY The number of properties available for sale nationally increased by 9.3% (from 22,521 to 24,61) compared to 12 months ago, and for New Zealand excluding Auckland the number of properties available for sale increased by 2.1% (from 15,784 to 16,113). Regions with the largest increase year-on-year in the number of properties for sale were Auckland (up 26.1%), Wellington (up 21.%) and Canterbury (up 18.6%). Regions with the biggest decrease year-on-year in the number of properties available for sale were Taranaki (-17.7%), Hawke s Bay (-14.9%) and West Coast (-12.2%). Even though Wellington saw one of the biggest increases in inventory, there is still only 7 weeks inventory left the least in the country, which is a pattern the region has been experiencing for some time now. Additionally, the Hawke s Bay only has 9 weeks inventory available, highlighting the popularity of the area, points out Norwell. PRICE BANDS Between December 216 and December 217, the number of homes sold fell in every price bracket except for the $2million to $2.99million category which increased by 4.3%. During December, 96 properties were sold for between $2million - $2.99million, up from 92 properties in December 216. The number of dwellings sold for less than $5, in December 217 fell by 18% compared to December 216 from 3,148 to 2,577 representing 43.7% of all homes sold across the country. Only 56 properties across the country sold for less than $25, a 29.9% drop from December 216. This was the lowest number of properties in this bracket on record, showing how price increases are impacting across the regions, concludes Norwell. For further information, please contact Dee Crooks, Communications/PR Manager at REINZ, on or NOTE TO EDITORS: The monthly REINZ residential sales reports remain the most recent, complete and accurate statistics on house prices and sales in New Zealand. They are based on actual sales reported by real estate agents. These sales are taken as of the date that a transaction becomes unconditional, up to 5:pm on the last business day of the month. Other surveys of the residential property market are based on information from Territorial Authorities regarding settlement and the receipt of documents by the relevant Territorial Authority from a solicitor. As such, this information involves a lag of four to six weeks before the sale is recorded. Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the infl uences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how the market changes over time. PRICE DISTRIBUTION BREAKDOWN December 216 December 217 $1 million plus % % $75, to $999, % % $5, to $749,999 1,79 26.% 1, % Under $5, 3, % 2, % All Properties Sold 6,567 1.% 5,93 1.% 5

6 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SALES VOLUMES COMPARED TO NOVEMBER 217 COMPARED TO DECEMBER 216 Volume Change Seasonally Adjusted Change Volume Change Seasonally Adjusted Change New Zealand -16.2%.3% -1.1% -6.1% NZ ex Akl -17.9% -2.5% -11.6% -7.2% Northland -15.3% 6.5% -23.4% -17.9% Auckland -12.1% 6.9% -6.4% -2.8% Waikato -11.3% 4.4% -8.1% -5.4% Bay of Plenty -4.4% 1.5% -3.3% 1.2% Gisborne -29.5% -15.7% -3.6% -23.% Hawke's Bay -27.4% -7.4% -13.1% -7.2% Manawatu/Wanganui -15.6% 3.5% -4.6% -1.9% Taranaki -26.6% -.% -3.1% 3.2% Wellington -12.3%.6% -12.9% -6.5% Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman -22.5% -2.8% -5.5%.3% Canterbury -26.3% -16.4% -19.1% -15.1% West Coast -3.6% 6.4% -2.6% -7.7% Otago -19.6% 4.5% -2.9% 3.% Southland -2.5% 7.1% -21.4% -15.8% SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MEDIAN PRICE COMPARED TO NOVEMBER 217 COMPARED TO DECEMBER 216 Median Change Seasonally Adjusted Change Median Change Seasonally Adjusted Change New Zealand 1.9% 1.7% 5.8% 5.9% NZ ex Akl.% -.4% 6.6% 6.6% Northland 4.7% 4.3% 8.1% 9.3% Auckland -1.1%.5% 1.8% 2.% Waikato 7.1% 6.8% 11.7% 11.1% Bay of Plenty 4.% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% Gisborne 3.4% 2.1% 7.% 5.5% Hawke's Bay -.5% -1.6% 17.7% 17.3% Manawatu/Wanganui -3.9% -2.5% 14.% 15.2% Taranaki 2.3% 1.% 2.9% 5.% Wellington 1.8% 2.% 4.7% 5.4% Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman -8.8% -7.2%.%.2% Canterbury -4.6% -4.4% -.7% -1.3% West Coast 1.1% 7.% -1.6% -3.2% Otago -2.7%.1% 12.% 13.2% Southland -6.8% -4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 6

7 AUCKLAND The Auckland market has been affected by multiple influences in the last quarter of 217. Buyers are being more considered and not rushing in to buy. However, vendors expectations are still high and haven t adjusted with the change in the market but well priced properties that meet the current market expectations are still selling well across all price ranges. The issuing of the Council CV data has also made for some difficult conversations as many vendors believe this is exactly what their property is worth. However, in some areas median prices are above the CV e.g. Franklin, and in other areas they are below the CV e.g. Auckland City, so it s important people talk to a licenced real estate agent to understand what their property may actually be worth. There are approximately 3% fewer investors in the market with many looking to sell their portfolio rather than expand it. A number of investors in the area are also looking to exit the market. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer Compared to December 216 the median price increased 2% to be $87,. Papakura District was the big mover with a 14% increase in median price over the year. At the opposite end of the scale the Auckland City median price dropped 6% compared to the same time last year. Compared to November 217, the region s median decreased 1% despite many TA s having an increase in median price. The large drop in Rodney, a moderate drop in Auckland City and no movement in Manukau City were the exceptions. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Auckland's median price had a 1% increase compared to November, indicating the month on month decrease experienced this past month was not quite as large as typically happens moving from November to December. Sales volume in the Auckland region decreased 12% compared to November, with strong decreases in sales numbers across most TA s, Waitakere being the exception with a 3% decrease. Compared to December 216 sales fell 6% with volumes decreasing in most TA s, this time Franklin City and Auckland City were the exceptions with a 41% and 1% increase respectively. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales volumes increased 7% compared to November indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was quite a bit smaller in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved one day from last month, moving from 35 days to 34 days. The median number of days to sell was the same as December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell during December for Auckland has been 32 days on average. There are now 24 weeks of inventory in the Auckland region, an increase of 9 weeks compared to December 216 and the third highest number of weeks of inventory after West Coast and Northland. AUCKLAND REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Auckland City 927, 97, 989, Franklin District 75, 645, 645, Manukau City 86, 86, 82, North Shore City 1,113, 1,64,5 1,37, Papakura District 75, 655, 62, Rodney District 85, 985, 841, Waitakere City 78, 75, 756, Auckland Region 87, 88, 855, 1,693 1,925 1,88 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Auckland City -4.4% -6.3% -14.4%.7% Franklin District 9.3% 9.3% 16.5% 41.4% Manukau City.% 4.9% -7.7% -.6% North Shore City 4.6% 7.3% -11.3% -22.4% Papakura District 7.6% 13.7% -38.5% -7.8% Rodney District -13.7% 1.1% -21.4% -16.% Waitakere City 4.% 3.2% -2.5% -1.7% Auckland Region -1.1% 1.8% -12.1% -6.4% 7

8 AUCKLAND GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in the median price is now tapering off with the volume trend continuing to fall. The days to sell trend continues to ease. The House Price Index is remaining fairly steady, having increased slightly over the past 12 months. 95, 9, 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, 6, 55, 5, 45, Auckland Region Median Price Auckland Median Price Auckland Region Sales Volumes 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Auckland Volumes 8

9 AUCKLAND Auckland Region House Price Index Auckland HPI Auckland Region Days To Sell Auckland DTS 9

10 NORTHLAND The Northland region has seen the busiest Christmas period for the last 1 years, with significant buyer enquiries rather than just casual holiday enquiries. In particular, Kerikeri had a busy holiday period with local agents commenting that it feels like a town that people are wanting to move to for lifestyle reasons. However, there is high interest, but many enquiries haven t translated through to sales yet. We anticipate this busyness will continue over the next few months rather than having a traditionally quiet January period too. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer The median price across the region rose by 8% compared to December 216 to be $445,. Prices fell 13% in Far North, but rose 43% in Kaipara and 15% in Whangarei. Compared to November 217, the median price increased 5% with the median price almost doubling in Kaipara (this can happen given the smaller sample count and the very differently priced main two selling suburbs of Dargaville and Mangawhai Heads) but falling 16% in Far North. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price increased 4% compared to November, indicating that the increase in median price was more than expected moving from November to December. Sales volume in Northland decreased 15% compared to November with sales falling 24% in Whangarei but increasing by 65% in Kaipara. Compared to December 216, sales volumes fell 23% across the region, with a 29% fall in Whangarei but an 8% increase in Kaipara. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased 7% compared to November, indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was quite a bit smaller in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved by three days compared to November, from 44 days in November to 41 days in December. The median number of days to sell eased by five days compared to December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell during December for Northland has been 55 days on average. There are now 3 weeks of inventory across the Northland region, an increase of seven weeks over the past 12 months and the second highest inventory level for all regions in NZ, only behind West Coast. NORTHLAND REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Far North District 36, 43, 415, Kaipara District 545, 285, 38, Whangarei District 475, 426, 414, Northand Region 445, 425, 411, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Far North District -16.3% -13.3% -2.8% -25.6% Kaipara District 91.2% 43.4% 64.7% 7.7% Whangarei District 11.5% 14.7% -23.5% -28.5% Northand Region 4.7% 8.1% -15.3% -23.4% 1

11 NORTHLAND GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in median price is continuing to rise, with the trend in sales volume decreasing. The days to sell trend is easing. The House Price Index has shown a moderate increase over the past few months. 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Northland Region Median Price Northland Median Price Northland Region Sales Volumes Northland Volumes 11

12 NORTHLAND Northland Region Days To Sell Northland DTS Northland Region House Price Index Northland HPI 12

13 WAIKATO The Waikato region still had a very busy, active market, other than a couple of quiet weeks over Christmas, and we anticipate the market will pick up in January. First home buyers are still very active here. It s an easy market to buy in, with affordable prices. The number of first time buyers is up on the same time last year something we expect is attributable to the changes announced to the LVRs, with people becoming active in anticipation of the changes in the new year. While first home buyers are not usually cash buyers they are very active, so we are getting quite a few offers that are conditional on the usual LIM and Finance and Builders reports, but we re also seeing offers conditional on methamphetamine tests, showcasing the caution these buyers are exercising. Philip Searle REINZ Regional Director The median price across the region rose 12% compared to December 216. Prices rose 63% in Waitomo, 26% in Hauraki and 21% in South Waikato. Compared to November the median price increased 7% with strong increases in South Waikato, Hauraki and Waitomo (3%, 2% and 17% respectively). On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased 7% compared to November indicating that the median price increased more than what is typically expected moving from November to December. Compared to November, sales volumes fell 11%, with sales decreasing most drastically in Waitomo, South Waikato and Hauraki (-53%, -49% and -35% respectively). Compared to December 216, sales across the region fell 8% with sales falling sharply in Thames-Coromandel, Hauraki, Waitomo and South Waikato (-36%, -35%, -33% and -32% respectively). On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales for December increased 4% compared to November, indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was smaller in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved by one day compared to November, from 37 days in November to 36 days in December. The median number of days to sell eased by six days compared to December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell during December for Waikato has been 42 days on average. The level of inventory across the region is 17 weeks, an increase of five weeks compared to December 216. WAIKATO REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Hamilton City 565, 53, 52, Hauraki District 422, 352, 335, Matamata-Piako District 42, 425, 46, Otorohanga District - 245, 245, South Waikato District 24, 185, 198, Taupo District 42, 44, 418, Thames-Coromandel District 59, 655, 53, Waikato District 429, 411,5 483, Waipa District 555, 583, 56, Waitomo District 21, 18, 129, Waikato Region 525, 49, 47, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Hamilton City 6.6% 8.7%.4%.% Hauraki District 19.9% 26.% -34.5% -34.5% Matamata-Piako District -1.2% -8.7% 4.8% -2.2% Otorohanga District South Waikato District 29.7% 21.2% -48.6% -32.1% Taupo District -4.5%.5% 4.% -6.% Thames-Coromandel District -9.9% 11.3% -17.7% -35.6% Waikato District 4.3% -11.2% -32.%.% Waipa District -4.8% 9.6% -24.4% 12.7% Waitomo District 16.7% 62.8% -52.9% -33.3% Waikato Region 7.1% 11.7% -11.3% -8.1% 13

14 WAIKATO GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in median price is continuing to rise, with the trend in sales volume decreasing. The days to sell trend is easing. The House Price Index has shown a moderate increase over the past few months. 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, Waikato Region Median Price Waikato Median Price Waikato Region Sales Volumes Waikato Volumes 14

15 WAIKATO Waikato Region Days To Sell Waikato DTS Waikato Region House Price Index Waikato HPI 15

16 BAY OF PLENTY Enquiry has remained strong in the Bay of Plenty region through December, but buyers have been slow to take action. Over the next few months we anticipate that the market will remain busy and that supply may improve. Buyers are spread across the market, but the overall effects of the LVRs have meant that we re seeing a reduced number of investors and first-time buyers in the market, until these kick-in in the new year. Philip Searle REINZ Regional Director The median price across the region increased 2% compared to December 216. The biggest median price increases were in Opotiki, Whakatane and Rotorua (6%, 33% and 31% respectively) although Tauranga only rose 7% over the same period. Compared to November the median price increased 4%, with the Whakatane median price increasing 25% but Opotiki, Western BOP and Rotorua showing drops in their median price. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the median price rose 2% compared to November indicating that the increase in median price was a little more than would be expected at this time of year. Compared to November, sales volumes decreased 4%, with sales count increasing over 1% in Opotiki and Western BOP but decreasing over 1% in Rotorua. Compared to December 216 sales across the region fell 3% with Opotiki more than doubling (from 5 sales to 11 sales) but Rotorua, Whakatane and Western BOP all having notable decreases in sales count (13% to 26%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales for December increased 11% compared to November, indicating that the moderate decrease in sales from November was much smaller in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved by two days in December, from 38 days in November to 36 days in December. The median number of days to sell eased by one day compared to December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell during December for Bay of Plenty has been 5 days on average. Compared to December 216, the level of inventory across the region has increased by five weeks to sit at 17 weeks of inventory in December 217. BAY OF PLENTY REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Kawerau District - 215, Opotiki District 25, 29, 156, Rotorua District 385, 49, 295, Tauranga City 655, 653, 615, Western Bay of Plenty District 65, 7, 525, Whakatane District 492,5 395, 37, Bay of Plenty Region 598, 575, 496, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Kawerau District Opotiki District -13.8% 6.3% 22.2% 12.% Rotorua District -5.9% 3.5% -11.8% -25.5% Tauranga City.3% 6.5% -4.1% 8.5% Western Bay of Plenty District -7.1% 23.8% 12.2% -13.2% Whakatane District 24.7% 33.1% 2.9% -14.3% Bay of Plenty Region 4.% 2.4% -4.4% -3.3% 16

17 BAY OF PLENTY GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in median price is continuing to rise, albeit at a lesser rate than before. The trend in sales volume continues on a sharp decline. The days to sell trend is now easing slightly. The House Price Index has seen moderate growth over the past quarter. 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, Bay of Plenty Region Median Price BOP Median Price Bay of Plenty Region Sales Volumes BOP Volumes 17

18 BAY OF PLENTY Bay of Plenty Region Days To Sell BOP DTS Bay of Plenty Region House Price Index BOP HPI 18

19 GISBORNE The Gisborne region remained buoyant in December, even right through the holiday period which is extremely positive and suggests that January will be a great month for the area particularly as the good weather continues to hold. Open home attendance remained at a strong level during the month and buyer expectations have remained realistic in terms of meeting the market. Overall, the region is experiencing strong sales for this time of year. Philip Searle REINZ Regional Director The median price across the region rose 7% compared to December 216. Compared to November, the median price increased 3%. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price increased 2% compared to November indicating that the increase in the median price is similar to what would be expected moving from November to December. Sales volume for the Gisborne Region decreased 3% compared to November, and decreased 31% compared to December 216. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales decreased by 16% compared to November, indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was quite a bit larger in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved by two days in December, from 3 days in November to 28 days in December. Compared to December 216 the median number of days to sell improved by three days. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell in December across the region has been 37 days on average. There were 12 weeks of supply across the region in December, a decrease of one week over the past 12 months. GISBORNE REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Gisborne District 35, 295, 285, Gisborne Region 35, 295, 285, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Gisborne District 3.4% 7.% -29.5% -3.6% Gisborne Region 3.4% 7.% -29.5% -3.6% 19

20 GISBORNE GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is increasing with the volume trend now slightly decreasing. The days to sell trend is now flat. The House Price Index for the Gisborne/Hawke's Bay has had strong upwards movement over the past quarter, the second strongest movement of all the regions over that period of time. 35, Gisborne Region Median Price 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Gisborne Median Price Gisborne Region Sales Volumes Gisborne Volumes 2

21 GISBORNE Gisborne Region Days To Sell Gisborne DTS Gisborne/Hawke's Bay Region House Price Index Gisborne/Hawke's Bay HPI 21

22 HAWKE S BAY December saw the Hawke s Bay market continue much the same as November with buyers spread across the market and a similiar number of listings available. Vendor expectations in the region were slightly higher than the previous month reflecting the buoyancy in the market and the recent record price achievements. Going forward, we expect that demand will continue to outstrip supply. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer The median price rose 18% compared to December 216. Prices rose 77% in Central Hawke s Bay and 25% in Napier. The median price decreased 1% compared to November, with prices rising 9% in Napier and falling 9% in Central Hawke s Bay. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median had a 2% decrease since November, indicating that a small increase was expected at this time of year as opposed to the tiny observed decrease. Sales volumes in Hawke's Bay fell 13% compared to December 216, with sales volume falling 33% in Hastings but increasing 46% in Central Hawke s Bay. Compared to November sales, volumes fell 27%, with sales volume falling over 2% in Napier and Hastings. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales for December decreased 7% compared to November indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was a bit larger in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell has improved five days since November, moving from 32 days to 27 days. The median number of days to sell improved two days since December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell for the Hawke's Bay region in December has been 42 days on average. The region has the second lowest level of inventory across New Zealand with just 9 weeks of supply, one week less than in December 216. HAWKE'S BAY REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Central Hawke's Bay District 31, 34, 175, Hastings District 39, 46,25 36, Napier City 58, 468, 46, Wairoa District - 12, 15, Hawke's Bay Region 418, 42, 355, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Central Hawke's Bay District -8.8% 77.1% -9.5% 46.2% Hastings District -4.% 8.3% -28.2% -32.5% Napier City 8.5% 25.1% -23.1% 13.4% Wairoa District Hawke's Bay Region -.5% 17.7% -27.4% -13.1% 22

23 HAWKE S BAY GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is rising strongly, although the sales volume trend continues to ease. The days to sell trend has been flat for over a year. The House Price Index for the Gisborne/Hawke s Bay has had strong upwards movement over the past quarter, the second strongest movement of all the regions over that period of time. 45, Hawke's Bay Region Median Price 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, Hawke's Bay Median Price 35 Hawke's Bay Region Sales Volumes Hawke's Bay Volumes 23

24 HAWKE S BAY Hawke's Bay Region Days To Sell Hawke's Bay DTS Gisborne/Hawke's Bay Region House Price Index Gisborne/Hawke's Bay HPI 24

25 TARANAKI The Taranaki residential market remains steady with buyers spread across all price brackets although December figures appear to be down on the previous month due to the holiday break. Vendor pricing expectations seem to have seen a slight increase in the lower to middle price range due to a lack of listings in that bracket, and overall listings are around 15% fewer than the previous month. Additionally, there are an estimated 3% fewer cash buyers compared to 12 months ago. The median price across the region rose 3% compared to December 216 with prices rising 1% in Stratford. Compared to November the median price rose 2%, with prices rising 8% in Stratford but falling 7% in South Taranaki. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price increased 1% compared to November, indicating that the observed increase in median price was a touch bigger than is expected moving from November to December. Sales volume for the Taranaki region decreased 27% compared to November with sales falling 55% in Stratford, 24% in New Plymouth and 22% in South Taranaki. Compared to December 216, sales volumes fell 3% with sales rising 15% in South Taranaki but fell 1% in Stratford. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased % compared to November, indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was exactly what was expected when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell eased by 2 days compared to November, moving from 34 days to 36 days in December. Compared to December 216 the median number of days to sell eased by nine days. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell across the region in December has been 41 days on average. There are currently 15 weeks of supply across the Taranaki region compared to 18 weeks in December 216. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer TARANAKI REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 New Plymouth District 415, 393,5 385, South Taranaki District 215, 23, 2, Stratford District 265, 245, 24, Taranaki Region 36, 352, 35, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 New Plymouth District 5.5% 7.8% -24.3% -7.6% South Taranaki District -6.5% 7.5% -22.% 14.7% Stratford District 8.2% 1.4% -55.% -1.% Taranaki Region 2.3% 2.9% -26.6% -3.1% 25

26 TARANAKI GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is still increasing, with the sales volume trend plateauing. The days to sell trend is now steady. The House Price Index had moderate growth over the past 3 months. 4, Taranaki Region Median Price 35, 3, 25, 2, Taranaki Median Price Taranaki Region Sales Volumes Taranaki Volumes 26

27 TARANAKI Taranaki Region House Price Index Taranaki HPI Taranaki Region Days To Sell Taranaki DTS 27

28 MANAWATU/WANGANUI The Manawatu/Wanganui region was very active in all levels during December and has continued to produce a consistent number of sales when compared to previous months, even through the December holiday period. There were 3 sales in the city that were in excess of $1 million during December, which is a significant number in 1 month for the area. Open homes were a little quieter in December, which is expected during the holiday period and investor activity has decreased significantly. In terms of asking prices, some vendors expectations have been a little on the high side given the recent hype in the region, however these properties tend to get overlooked by welleducated purchasers. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer The median price across the region rose 14% compared to December 216. Median prices rose 37% in Manawatu District and 13% in Whanganui District. Compared to November the median price decreased 4%, with prices falling 23% in Tararua and 18% in Ruapehu. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price decreased 3% compared to November, indicating the observed decrease in median price was a little larger than expected when moving from November to December. Sales count fell 5% compared to December 216, with sales count increasing by 91% in Rangitikei but decreasing by more than 15% in Tararua, Ruapehu, Manawatu and Horowhenua. Compared to November, sales count decreased 16%, with Horowhenua, Rangitikei and Ruapehu all dropping 25% or greater. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales across the region increased 4% compared to November, indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was smaller in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved by three days compared to November, moving from 31 days to 28 days in December. The median number of days to sell stayed the same compared to December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell during December for the region has been 43 days on average. The level of inventory available for sale currently sits at 13 weeks, one week more than inventory levels in December 216. MANAWATU/WANGANUI REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Horowhenua District 235, 282, 225, Manawatu District 369, 357, 27, Palmerston North City 36, 38, 332, Rangitikei District 15, 162,5 169, Ruapehu District 155, 188, 145, Tararua District 145, 187, 155, Whanganui District 225, 26,5 199, Manawatu/Wanganui Region 285, 296,5 25, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Horowhenua District -16.7% 4.4% -35.1% -15.8% Manawatu District 3.4% 36.7% -21.3% -15.9% Palmerston North City -5.3% 8.3%.% 1.6% Rangitikei District -7.7% -11.2% -25.% 9.9% Ruapehu District -17.6% 6.9% -25.% -16.7% Tararua District -22.5% -6.5% -11.5% -23.3% Whanganui District 9.% 12.8% -14.7% -3.6% Manawatu/Wanganui Region -3.9% 14.% -15.6% -4.6% 28

29 MANAWATU/WANGANUI GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is now improving, with the volume trend slightly easing. The days to sell trend has started to flatten. The House Price Index has increased a small amount over the past three months. 35, Manawatu/Wanganui Region Median Price 3, 25, 2, 15, Manawatu/Wanganui Median Price Manawatu/Wanganui Region Sales Volumes Manawatu/Wanganui Volumes 29

30 MANAWATU/WANGANUI Manawatu/Wanganui Region Days To Sell Manawatu/Wanganui DTS Manawatu/Wanganui Region House Price Index Manawatu/Wanganui HPI 3

31 WELLINGTON December was a quiet month for the Wellington region following the election and with Christmas looming. There were 3% fewer investors in the market when compared to the same time last year, suggesting that many of the Government changes to the housing market were prevalent in investors minds. Vendor pricing expectations have remained relatively stable despite the quietening market, but we expect the market to pick up from late January. Mark Coffey REINZ Regional Director The median price for the Wellington region rose 5% compared to December 216. The median price rose 25% in Masterton, 19% in Porirua and 18% in South Wairarapa. Compared to November, the median price increased 2%, with median prices rising 7% in Carterton and % in Lower Hutt but decreasing in all other Wellington TA s. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price increased 2% indicating that the observed increase in the median price was a little more than expected when moving from November to December. Compared to December 216, sales volumes fell 13% across the region with only South Wairarapa and Carterton showing increases in sales volume. Compared to November, sales volumes decreased 12%, with sales decreasing in all TA s except South Wairarapa (%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased 1% from November, indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was similar in magnitude to the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved by one day compared to November, from 29 days to 28 days. The number of days to sell eased by two days compared to December 216. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell during December for the region has been 33 days on average. The level of inventory in Wellington increased by 1 week compared to December 216, but at 7 weeks it remains the lowest level of inventory across the country. WELLINGTON REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Carterton District 385, 36, 415, Kapiti Coast District 491, 525, 495, Lower Hutt City 59, 58, 496, Masterton District 32, 324, 256, Porirua City 567, 58, 475, South Wairarapa District 43, 44, 366, Upper Hutt City 451, 48, 429, Wellington City 645, 77, 64, Wellington Region 56, 55, 535, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Carterton District 6.9% -7.2% -42.9% 9.1% Kapiti Coast District -6.5% -.8% -14.5% -9.6% Lower Hutt City.2% 2.6% -1.5% -12.6% Masterton District -1.2% 25.% -29.2% -4.2% Porirua City -2.2% 19.4% -7.4% -21.3% South Wairarapa District -2.3% 17.5%.% 14.3% Upper Hutt City -6.% 5.% -31.5% -16.% Wellington City -8.8%.8% -2.4% -15.2% Wellington Region 1.8% 4.7% -12.3% -12.9% 31

32 WELLINGTON GRAPH COMMENTARY The trend in the median price is starting to show a slightly slower rate of increase, although the volume trend has been on the decline. The days to sell trend remains flat to easing. The House Price Index has shown moderate growth over the past three months. 55, Wellington Region Median Price 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, Wellington Median Price Wellington Region Sales Volumes Wellington Volumes 32

33 WELLINGTON Wellington Region Days To Sell Wellington DTS Wellington Region House Price Index Wellington HPI 33

34 NELSON/MARLBOROUGH/TASMAN The Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman region remains very positive across all price ranges, driven by expats and New Zealanders from outside the area looking to invest in Nelson/Tasman as it still remains an attractive market from both an affordability and lifestyle perspective. The region experienced the traditional quiet Christmas market that we have become used to seeing over the years. The main purchasers of property are owneroccupiers and they are spread across the market price wise. One trend we can expect to see going forward is more properties being advertised with a price rather than via auction or negotiation just providing the market with a little more certainty as to the pricing. One interesting trend across the region was in Blenheim where there were 5% more first time buyers in the market this month compared to the same time last year. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer The median price for the Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman region remained flat compared to December 216. Prices rose 12% in Tasman, 11% in Nelson and decreased 2% in Marlborough. Compared to November the median price for the region fell 9%, with prices falling 15% in Marlborough but rose 3% in Nelson and 2% in Tasman. On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price decreased 7% indicating that the observed decrease in the median price was more than was expected at this time of year. Compared to December 216, sales volume fell 6%, with sales increasing 7% in Nelson but falling 13% in Tasman and 11% in Marlborough. Compared to November, sales volumes decreased 23% across the region with sales consistent in Marlborough (%) but falling 41% in Tasman and 26% in Nelson. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales decreased 3% compared to November indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was only a little bit larger in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell in December eased three days compared to November, moving from 27 days to 3 days. Compared to December 216 the median number of days eased seven days. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell in December across the region has been 35 days on average. There were 15 weeks of supply across the region in December, one week more than in December 216. NEL/MARL/TAS REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Nelson City 515, 52, 464, Marlborough District 372, 437, 38, Tasman District 55, 541, 49, Nel/Marl/Tas Region 456, 5, 456, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Nelson City 2.6% 11.% -26.2% 7.% Marlborough District -14.9% -2.1%.% -1.8% Tasman District 1.7% 12.2% -4.7% -12.7% Nel/Marl/Tas Region -8.8%.% -22.5% -5.5% 34

35 NELSON/MARLBOROUGH/TASMAN GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend for the region has been climbing strongly although that has started to taper off. The sales volume trend continues to ease. The days to sell trend has started to ease slightly. The House Price Index for Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast has shown a strong increase over the past three months. 5, Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Region Median Price 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Median Price Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Region Sales Volumes Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Volumes 35

36 NELSON/MARLBOROUGH/TASMAN Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman Region Days To Sell Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman DTS Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast House Price Index Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast HPI 36

37 WEST COAST The West Coast region continued to experience a reasonable level of enquiries in December, despite the usual holiday slow-down. Properties are still selling for close to CV and we re seeing interest from a number of retirees and people outside of the region who think it s a great place to move to. Helping to drive interest in the region is the increase in tourism - local operators are saying they ve never been so busy and that is leading to enquiries from buyers interested in moving to the area. There is no shortage of listings which suggests that going forward this positive momentum will continue into the New Year. Bindi Norwell REINZ Chief Executive Officer The median price across the region decreased 2% compared to December 216, with prices decreasing 18% in Grey but increasing 34% in Buller. Compared to November, the median price increased 1% with Buller increasing 25% and Grey increasing 7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the median price increased 7% which indicates that a stronger increase was observed than is expected when moving from November to December. Sales volume for the West Coast Region fell 21% compared to December 216, with sales decreasing 39% in Grey but increasing 5% in Buller. Compared to November, sales volume decreased 4%, with sales count decreasing 8% in Grey and increasing 9% in Buller. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased 6% compared to November, indicating that the decrease in sales from November was smaller in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell eased by 128 days in December, from 61 days in November to 189 days in December. Compared to December 216, the median number of days to sell eased by 26 days. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell in December across the region was 85 days on average. There were 84 weeks of supply across the region in December (the largest of all regions in NZ), a decrease of six weeks compared to December 216. WEST COAST REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Buller District 181,5 145, 135, Grey District 175, 164, 212, Westland District - 235, 2, West Coast Region 185, 168, 188, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Buller District 25.2% 34.4% 9.1% 5.% Grey District 6.7% -17.6% -8.3% -38.9% Westland District West Coast Region 1.1% -1.6% -3.6% -2.6% 37

38 WEST COAST GRAPH COMMENTARY The median price trend is gently increasing, although the volume trend has begun decreasing. The days to sell trend is easing. The House Price Index for Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast has shown a strong increase over the past three months. 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, West Coast Region Median Price West Coast Median Price West Coast Region Sales Volumes West Coast Volumes 38

39 WEST COAST West Coast Region Days To Sell West Coast DTS Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast House Price Index Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman/West Coast HPI 39

40 CANTERBURY The Canterbury market is still quite strong and steady, even taking into account the traditional Christmas slow down. In fact, sales were stronger than expected for December. Additionally, there were around 3% fewer investors in the market. However, going forward, we expect the market will still be quite strong and better than originally anticipated initial interest is already strong which is promising. Jim Davis REINZ Regional Director The median price decreased 1% compared to December 216. Mackenzie District showed the largest percentage increase in median price (+24%) of the TA s whereas Hurunui showed the biggest decrease (-14%). Compared to November the median price decreased 5% with Waimate showing the biggest decrease (-27%) and Mackenzie showing the largest increase (+16%). On a seasonally adjusted basis the median price decreased 4% compared to November, indicating that the decrease in the median price was larger than expected at this time of year. Sales volume across the region fell 19% compared to December 216, with sales volume rising over 16% in Mackenzie and Waimate but falling more than 25% in Ashburton, Hurunui and Timaru. Compared to November, sales count decreased 26%, with sales decreasing by more than 2% in all reported TA s other than Selwyn and Mackenzie. On a seasonally adjusted basis, volumes decreased 16% compared to November indicating that the large decrease in sales from November was much larger in magnitude than the expected decrease when moving from November to December. The median number of days to sell improved three days in December compared to November, from 33 days to 3 days. Compared to December 216 the number of days to sell improved by one day. Over the past 1 years the median number of days to sell in December across the region was 32 days on average. There were 18 weeks of inventory available in December, an increase of two weeks compared to December 216. CANTERBURY REGION TRENDS PRICE VOLUMES DAYS TO SELL OVERALL MEDIA N PRICE VOLUME SOLD Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Dec-17 Nov-17 Dec-16 Ashburton District 32, 325, 332, Christchurch City 45, 47, 455, Hurunui District 361, 49, 419, Kaikoura District - 385, Mackenzie District 475, 49, 383, Selwyn District 52, 555, 568, Timaru District 335, 365, 35, Waimakariri District 435, 454,814 47, Waimate District 22, 3, 28, Canterbury Region 439, 46, 442, 764 1, Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Vs Nov-17 Dec-16 Ashburton District -1.5% -3.6% -28.6% -37.5% Christchurch City -4.3% -1.1% -26.7% -21.% Hurunui District -26.3% -13.8% -26.7% -26.7% Kaikoura District Mackenzie District 16.1% 24.%.% 22.2% Selwyn District -6.3% -8.5% -14.%.% Timaru District -8.2% 9.8% -2.5% -26.2% Waimakariri District -4.4% -7.4% -37.1%.% Waimate District -26.7% 5.8% -46.2% 16.7% Canterbury Region -4.6% -.7% -26.3% -19.1% 4