Hillgrove Resources Ltd

Transcription

1 Hillgrove Resoures Ltd Quarterly report RN 1 Deember 2011 $0.19 BUY James Brennan-Chong james.brennan-hong@wilsonhtm.om.au Cameron Judd ameron.judd@wilsonhtm.om.au Prie Performane $0.30 Nov 10 Mar 11 Jul 11 Seurity/Capital Details Nov 11 ASX Code HGO Market Cap $153 M Issued Shares (dil) M Avg Mth T over M 12 Mth High Low $ $0.18 Key Data/Ratios FY 2012 EBITDA / Sales EBIT / Sales Debt / Equity 26.1 Interest Cover -4.5 x ROE -2.1 EPS Growth 70.5 DCF $ Mth Prie Target $0.55 Important Dislosure Wilson HTM Corporate Finane Ltd ated as Joint Lead Manager and Underwriter for the plaement announed by Hillgrove Resoures Limited in Otober 2010 and earned fees for ating in this apaity. Reommendation HGO has produed first onentrate and appears on trak to reord first revenue in mid to late Deember. Whilst this is a positive, we maintain that the ash outlook remains tight. In our view, ramp up risk and the nature and size of the unexpeted laim are likely to ontinue to limit share prie appreiation. The need for a apital raising is not a foregone onlusion as debt finaning and deferred payment of the unexpeted laim remain possible solutions to the weak near-term ash outlook. We are seeing growing exploration potential at Kanmantoo and look to an updated reserve and resoure statement as well as a re-optimised mine plan in CY12 as providing share prie atalysts. Key Points First onentrate: Kanmantoo has produed first onentrate with initial onentrate grades above ompany expetations. The announement of first revenue will be the next share prie atalyst, and is dependent on 2,500t of onentrate arriving at the port. We understand the mill to be urrently operating at +80 of nameplate apaity (~80ktpa onentrate), this implies a urrent monthly onentrate prodution rate of 5,333t. Although minor teething issues are not unommon during the ramp up phase for Greenfield mining projets, we remain omforted by the plant s previous operating status as well as the relatively non-omplex metallurgy. Contrator laim: Although details are limited, we understand disussions regarding the unexpeted laim to be ongoing, the laim is estimated at ~$10m. The timing of the payment remains unknown and it is possible that the payment ould be deferred into CY2012. Initial resoure reoniliation positive: Initial grade ontrol sampling aross an estimated 500kt sample has returned results that have generally met or exeeded the existing resoure model. Exploration potential advaning: Drilling during the quarter foused primarily around the Emily Star satellite pit. Results suggest potential for a single larger and longer life pit ompared to a luster of small pits. A reserve and resoure update is expeted in the first half of CY2012. Cash outlook remains tight: Total ash at 31 Otober was $34.5m, this inludes $10m that has been ring fened to Hillgrove s subsidiary at behest of the banks. Cash available to HGO at the end of Otober was $24m. Debt at 31 Otober was A$30m. We ontinue to estimate a ash burn rate of $10m per month, and we foreast a ash low point at the end of Deember of $4m, whih is prior to any expeted revenue from the arrival of first onentrate to port. HGO expets to be ash flow positive by February. Valuation: We rate HGO a BUY, although note the potential for ramp up delays that ould add further pressure on an already tight near term ash outlook. Our modelling assumes an additional $20m of debt finaning, although we annot rule out the possibility of an equity raising. Valuation and target prie are unhanged at $0.46/sh and $0.55/sh respetively. Year to Jan NPAT (Rep) $M NPAT (PSig) $M EPS (PSig) EPS Growth PER x CFPS P/CF x DPS Div Yld Franking 2011a e e e Equities Researh Hillgrove Resoures Ltd 1 Issued by Wilson HTM Ltd ABN Australian Finanial Servies Liene No , a partiipant of ASX Group and should be read in onjuntion with the dislosures and dislaimer in this report. Important dislosures regarding ompanies that are subjet of this report and an explanation of reommendations an be found at the end of this doument.

2 Resoure reoniliation Results from an initial resoure reoniliation sample have generally met or exeed the existing resoure model. The harts below omprise data taken from one upper benh loated at 1180RL and over an area that is expeted to represent 500kt of resoure. Generally, the Kanmantoo ore body demonstrates higher-grade ore towards the bottom of the pit oiniding with primary ore. Reoniled primary ore tonnes per prodution shot Soure: HGO Initial Blasthole model results have reorded an average ~20 inrease in ore tonnages ompared to the existing resoure model over the sample area. Reoniled primary ore opper grade tonnes per prodution shot Soure: HGO Initial Blasthole model results have reorded primary ore opper grades that have generally met or exeed the expeted grade as per the resoure model. The average grade from the above sample is not readily omparable to the reserve grade of 0.85 Cu, as grades at the upper portion of the deposit generally exhibit lower opper grades. Equities Researh Hillgrove Resoures Ltd 2

3 Growing resoure potential at Kanmantoo Emily Star aerial magnetis and drillhole piere points Soure: HGO Resoure to reserve onversion drilling foused primarily on the Emily Star satellite pit, 20 holes over 3,197m were ompleted. Key results inlude; 1.21 Cu from 128m 1.56 Cu from 91m 1.10 u from 118m These results are signifiant as the grades from the drill results are above the existing Emily Star reserve grade, estimated at 0.95 Cu for 14.3kt Cu. HGO is seeing potential for a link zone between Emily Star, Crithley, Giant and Paringa that ould potentially result in a single large open pit, ompared to a series of smaller satellite pits (existing pit outlines in yellow). Should grades at all loations ontinue to demonstrate widths and grades analogous to that of Emily Star, we see sope for a ombined larger pit that is up to three times the size of the existing Emily Star pit. Suh an outome ould potentially add +3 years mine life. Equities Researh Hillgrove Resoures Ltd 3

4 Hillgrove Resoures Ltd (HGO : $0.19) PRODUCTION Copper In Con - (kt) Gold In Con - (koz) Silver In Con (koz) C1 Cash Cost - (US$/lb) PRICES Gold (US$/oz spot) Silver (US$/oz spot) Copper (US$/lb) AUDUSD (USD) INVESTMENT & VALUATION FUNDAMENTALS EPS Before Abs () EPS Growth () N/A PER (x) CFPS () P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS () Yield () Franking () DCF Yr Ending Jan A$m A$ps A$m A$ps Kanmantoo - Open Cut Corporate Items Interests In Other Entities Exploration/Development Cash ollateralised bond Franking Credits Hedge Book Net (Debt)/Cash Additional Capital - Dilution Total Valuation BALANCE SHEET ($m) Cash Total Assets Debt Total Liabilities Total Shareholders Equity Total Funds Employed LIQUIDITY & LEVERAGE RATIOS Debt / Equity () Gearing () Interest Cover (x) Debt / CashFlow (x) (Debt+CNotes)/ CashFlow PROFIT & LOSS ($m) Sales Revenue EBITDA Depn and Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Expense Pre-tax Profit Tax Tax rate () Minorities / pref divs Equity aounted NPAT Net Profit Abnormals Reported Net Profit CASHFLOW ($m) Operating Cash Flow Capital Expenditure Expln, Develop, Evaln Asset Sales/Aquisitions Other Investing Cash Flow PROFITABILITY RATIOS EBIT / Sales () ROA () N/A ROE () N/A ROFE () N/A INTERIMS ($m) Half Yr Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Yr Ending Jan 1H A 2H A 1H A 2H E 1H E Sales Revenue EBIT Net Profit EPS Share Issues/(Buybaks) Debt Drawdown (Repay) Dividends Paid Other Fin. Flows Finaning Cash Flow Cash Inrease (Derease) EARNINGS SENSITIVITIES - CHANGE +/-10 US$ Copper Prie /-10 US$ Gold Prie /- 1 Movement US$/A$ /-10 US$ Silver Prie Gearing = (Debt + CNotes) / (Debt + Cnotes + Equity) Equities Researh Hillgrove Resoures Ltd 4

5 Reommendation Struture BUY: Total return +10 or more over a 12 month period HOLD: Total return expeted to be between +10 to -10 over a 12-month period SELL: Total return expeted to be -10 or more over a 12 month period TOTAL RETURN OR TSR = apital growth in share prie + expeted dividend yield in that period Other definitions CS Coverage Suspended. Wilson HTM Ltd has suspended overage of this ompany. NR Not Rated. The reommendation has been suspended temporarily. Suh suspension is in line with Wilson HTM Investment Group Ltd poliies in irumstanes where Wilson HTM Corporate Finane Ltd is ating in an advisory apaity in a merger or strategi transation involving the ompany and in ertain other situations. Dislaimer Whilst Wilson HTM Ltd believes the information ontained in this ommuniation is based on reliable information, no warranty is given as to its auray and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. To the extent permitted by law Wilson HTM Ltd dislaims all liability to any person relying on the information ontained in this ommuniation in respet of any loss or damage (inluding onsequential loss or damage) however aused, whih may be suffered or arise diretly or indiretly in respet of suh information. Any projetions ontained in this ommuniation are estimates only. Suh projetions are subjet to market influenes and ontingent upon matters outside the ontrol of Wilson HTM Ltd and therefore may not be realised in the future. The advie ontained in this doument is general advie. It has been prepared without taking aount of any person s objetives, finanial situation or needs and beause of that, any person should, before ating on the advie, onsider the appropriateness of the advie, having regard to the lient s objetives, finanial situation and needs. Those ating upon suh information without first onsulting one of Wilson HTM Ltd investment advisors do so entirely at their own risk. This report does not onstitute an offer or invitation to purhase any seurities and should not be relied upon in onnetion with any ontrat or ommitment whatsoever. If the advie relates to the aquisition, or possible aquisition, of a partiular finanial produt the lient should obtain a Produt Dislosure Statement relating to the produt and onsider the Statement before making any deision about whether to aquire the produt. This ommuniation is not to be dislosed in whole or part or used by any other party without Wilson HTM Ltd's prior written onsent. Dislosure of Interest. Hillgrove Resoures Ltd The Diretors of Wilson HTM Ltd advise that at the date of this report they and their assoiates have relevant interests in Hillgrove Resoures Limited. They also advise that Wilson HTM Ltd and Wilson HTM Corporate Finane Ltd A.B.N and their assoiates have reeived and may reeive ommissions or fees from Hillgrove Resoures Limited in relation to advie or dealings in seurities. Some or all of Wilson HTM Ltd authorised representatives may be remunerated wholly or partly by way of ommission. In produing researh reports, members of Wilson HTM Ltd Researh may attend site visits and other meetings hosted by the issuers the subjet of its researh reports. In some instanes the osts of suh site visits or meetings may be met in part or in whole by the issuers onerned if Wilson HTM Ltd onsiders it is appropriate and reasonable in the speifi irumstanes relating to the site visit or meeting. Regulatory Dislosures Wilson HTM Corporate Finane Ltd ated as Joint Lead Manager and Underwriter for the plaement announed by Hillgrove Resoures Limited in Otober 2010 and earned fees for ating in this apaity. Wilson HTM Investment Group Ltd and its related bodies orporate trades or may trade as prinipal in the seurities that are subjet of the researh report. Wilson HTM Corporate Finane Ltd has reeived ompensation for orporate advisory servies from this ompany, its subsidiaries or affiliates during the previous 12 months. BRISBANE SYDNEY MELBOURNE GOLD COAST Ph: Ph: Ph: Ph: Fax: Fax: Fax: Fax: DALBY HERVEY BAY Ph: Ph: Fax: Fax: Our web site: Equities Researh Hillgrove Resoures Ltd 5