Economic Update 02 April 2018
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- Claud Newton
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1 Inflation Update Late harvest pushed annual inflation higher Headline & core inflation Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Est. Cons. Inflation (%, MoM) Inflation (%, YoY) Inflation (%, YTD) Core inf (%, MoM) Core inf (%, YoY) Inflation breakdown, M-M % Source : BPS & Bloomberg Brent oil prices, ICP and Pertamax March inflation slightly below our estimate BPS reported that March inflation was at 0.20% MoM (3.40% YoY), which came above Bloomberg consensus but slightly below our estimates (see table on the left). All sector experienced inflation in March, including food sector which usually had a deflation in March. Core inflation started to slightly pick up in annual basis to 2.67% YoY (0.18% MoM), in line with Indonesia s March manufacturing PMI that remained in expansion territory of 50.7 point. March inflation figure brought YTD inflation at 0.99%. Late harvest brought food price still experienced inflation Chief Economic Minister, Darmin Nasution, statement previously about late harvest in this year already indicated that food price will not experience deflation in March like previous year. The condition was similar with March 2016 condition where late harvest brought food inflation to 0.69% MoM and monthly inflation at 0.19% MoM. In current condition, food inflation (0.14% MoM, 4.24% YoY) was driven by chili, onion and garlic. According to central bank s food price monitor website (hargapangan.id), the average price of red chili increased by 7.2% MoM to Rp43,350/kg while the price of cayenne chili increased by 10% MoM to Rp 47,050/kg the average price of garlic reached Rp /kg or grew 17.4% MoM while red onion price increased 8.9% MoM to Rp 28,000/kg. Rice price deflation(-1.2% MoM Rp 11,950/kg) helped to cool down March inflation. We expect that food price will have downtrend in April as the peak of harvest season will be occurred in this month and bring annual inflation to lower level. Non-subsidized fuel increase effect still limited As global oil price keep its uptrend, Pertamina increased its non-subsidized fuel again at end of March. This time, Pertalite (Ron 90) had its turn as Pertamina increased its price to Rp 7,800/litre (2.6%), making its price has increased by 4.0% from its position in the end of 2017 (Rp 7,500/litre). Previously, Pertamina had increased Pertamax price by 3.5% to Rp8,900/liter in February. However, we s ee that the effect of those prices increase to inflation was still relatively small as BPS only stated that fuel price increase gave 0.04% additional inflation in March, below our estimation at 0.06%. We still see that government is committed to maintain subsidized fuel price at current level which prevent inflation to increase wildly in Non O&G Large Wholesale Price Index slightly increase at 0.49% MoM March s Large Wholesale Price Index (LWPI) for non Oil and Gas increased by 0.49% MoM. Both Mining/quarrying product price and export product price became the main driver of growth as it recorded 0.92% MoM and 1.43% MoM inflation in March respectivly. We see that higher oil and coal price in 2018 became the main driver of the price increase in 1Q18. Import price also increased by 0.52% MoM which in our view correlated with Rupiah depreciation. Agriculture products experienced inflation at 0.44% due to late harvest season and industry sector also recorded 0.14% MoM inflation. Source : CEIC & Bloomberg Maintain our view of 3.5% YoY inflation in 2018 We see that harvest season in April may bring down consumer price to deflation territory (in monthly basis), especially for food price. Annual inflation is expected to move at 2.9% - 3.2% YoY in April and it is still expected to be below 3.5% YoY in 1H18. Government commitment to maintain subsidized fuel and electricity price made us still believe Indonesia s inflation in 2018 may reach 3.5% YoY. There is no need for central bank to change its policy stance this month. Imanuel Reinaldo ext. 820 reinaldoimanuel@ciptadana.com Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 2
2 Exhibit 1: Food Inflation MoM Late harvest made food price had a unusual inflation in March. Previous late harvest occurred in Source: BPS Exhibit 2: Change of Food Price in March (MoM) Deflation rice price still cannot compensate the inflation in chili, red onion and garlic. Source: hargapangan.id (Bank Indonesia) Exhibit 3: Indonesia Manufacturing PMI Source: Bloomberg Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 3
3 Exhibit 4: Inflation & policy rate We maintain our view of year end inflation at 3.5%. Source: BI, BPS, Ciptadana Estimates Exhibit 5 : Key macroeconomic indicators Year-end 31-Dec 14A 15A 16A 17A 18F Nominal GDP (Rp tn) 10,543 11,541 12,407 13,588 14,878 Nominal GDP (USD bn) ,015 1,102 GDP/capita (USD) - Nominal 3,530 3,377 3,605 3,877 4,158 Real GDP (%YoY) Private Consumption (%YoY) Government consumption (%YoY) Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%YoY Exports (%YoY) Imports (%YoY) Inflation rate (%YoY) - year end Core inflation rate (%YoY) - year end BI Rate BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate - year end Rupiah / US Dollar - average 11,878 13,398 13,473 13,380 13,620 Rupiah / US Dollar - year end 12,440 13,788 13,346 13,555 13,700 Current account as % of GDP Fiscal balance as % of GDP Source: BI, BPS, MoF, Ciptadana estimates Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 4
4 HEAD OF RESEARCH ANALYST ANALYST Arief Budiman Erni Marsella Siahaan, CFA Yasmin Soulisa Strategy, Automotive, Heavy Equipment, Banking Property, Plantations Construction, Shipping T ext 919 T ext 799 T ext 819 E siahaanerni@ciptadana.com E soulisayasmin@ciptadana.com E budimanarief@ciptadana.com ECONOMIST ANALYST ANALYST Imanuel Reinaldo Niko Margaronis Fahressi Fahalmesta T ext 820 Telecommunication, Tower, Healthcare Cement, Toll Road, Poultry E reinaldoimanuel@ciptadana.com T ext 734 T ext 735 E margaronisniko@ciptadana.com E fahalmestafahressi@ciptadana.com ANALYST ANALYST TECHNICAL ANALYST Stella Amelinda Fransisca Maharani Putri Trevor Gasman Consumer Media, Retail T ext 934 T ext 740 T ext 760 E gasmantrevor@ciptadana.com E amelindastella@ciptadana.com E putrifransisca@ciptadana.com RESEARCH ASSISTANT Sumarni T ext 920 E sumarni@ciptadana.com EQUITY SALES Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES Dadang Mulyana Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Plaza ASIA Office Park unit 2 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 59 Jakarta Jakarta T ext 838 T ext 807 Co HEAD OF INSTITUTIONAL SALES The Fei Ming F F E mulyanadadang@ciptadana.com E thefeiming@ciptadana.com BRANCH OFFICES JAKARTA - MANGGA DUA JAKARTA - PURI KENCANA SURABAYA Komplek Harco Mangga Dua Perkantoran Puri Niaga III Intiland Tower Surabaya Rukan Blok C No.10 Jl. Puri Kencana Blok M8 No.2E Ground Floor Suite 5 & 6 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya Kembangan Jl. Panglima Sudirman Jakarta Jakarta Surabaya T T T F F F SEMARANG Gedung Menara Suara Merdeka 6th Floor Unit 02 Jl. Pandanaran No.30 Semarang Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 5
5 Analyst Certification Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation. Disclaimer This report does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any security/instrument, invitation to offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. Nor are we acting in any other capacity as a fiduciary to you. When making and investment decision, you should determine, without reliance upon us or our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks) as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction. In this regard, by accepting this report, you acknowledge that (a) we are not in the business of providing (and you are not relying on us for) legal, tax or accounting advice, (b) there may be legal, tax or accounting risks associated with any transaction, (c) you should receive (and rely on) separate and qualified legal, tax and accounting advice and (d) you should apprise senior management in your organi zation as to such legal, tax and accounting advice (and any risks associated with any transaction and our disclaimer as to these matters. The information contained in this report is based on material we believe to be reliable; however, we do not represent that it is accurate, current, complete, or error free. Assumptions, estimates and opinions contained in this report constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and are subject to change without notice. Any projections are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected results will be achieved. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES AND ITS AFFILIATES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL OR OTHER LOSSES OR DAMAGES INCLUDING LOSS OF PROFITS INCURRED BY YOU OR ANY THIRD PARTY THAT MAY ARISE FROM ANY RELIANCE ON THIS REPORT OR FOR THE RELIABILITY, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR TIMELINESS THEREOF. Disclaimer: This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by PT CIPTADANA SECURITIES or any other member of the Ciptadana Capital, including any other member of the Ciptadana Group of Companies from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. The information in this document is subject to change without notice; its accuracy is not guaranteed; and it may be incomplete or condensed. Please see analyst certification and other important disclosures at the back of this report 6
Economic Update EQUITY RESEARCH. Better but not as good as expected. Economic Update 6 November 2017 CIPTADANA SEKURITAS ASIA.
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