Food Prices and Poverty in Latin America
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1 Food Prices and Poverty in Latin America LCSPP/PREM/LAC Carlos Sobrado Gabriel Demombynes Eliana Rubiano July
2 Contents 1. Food Prices Impact in Central America Poverty using the Poor Person s Price Index (PPPI) 2. Integrated Impact of Local Food Prices on Poverty: the Honduras Case 2
3 1. Food Prices Impact in Central America Poverty Using the Poor Person s Price Index (PPPI) 3
4 The official Consumer Price Index does not represent the poor Most LAC CPIs correspond to inflation rate faced by the wealthy: (80 th -90 th percentile) Inflation experienced by wealthy vs. poor may differ 4
5 Key difference in consumption of poor and non-poor: Food is larger share of consumption for poor: 50-65% vs % for non-poor If food and non-food inflation rates are similar, no effect on differential inflation 5
6 Inflation is increasing in Central America since June-July Month CPI Evolution in Central America NIC C.R. % GT HON ES 2 0 PAN Month - Year Source: National Authorities overall and CPI inflation 6
7 Food inflation rates has been higher than non-food inflation 12 Month CPI and Food Inflation Evolution, April NIC PAN ES HON GT C.R Month CPI Change Source: National Authorities overall and CPI inflation 7
8 The Poor Person s Price Index PPPI calculated using same data as official CPI but reweighted with food share specific to poor Food shares estimated with LSMS type surveys and Income and Expenditure surveys 8
9 PPPI is 1.2% to 2.6% higher than CPI: Panama 8.5% 11.0% Nicaragua 19.3% 22.0% Honduras 9.7% 12.0% Guatemala El Salvador 8.0% 6.8% 11.0% 10.4% PPPI CPI Costa Rica 12.0% 10.9% 9
10 Extremely rough poverty impact estimate based on PPPI Assume incomes increase at rate of overall CPI Then PPPI-CPI difference = decline of purchasing power of poor Apply estimates of income-headcount elasticity to get headcount impact 10
11 Extremely rough poverty impact estimate based on PPPI Country Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Central America Initial Headcount 23.9% 37.2% 51.0% 50.7% 46.2% 36.8% 44.0% Increase in Headcount 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 336,000 new poor out of C.A. population of 41 million 11
12 2. Integrated Impact of Local Food Prices on Poverty: the Honduras Case 12
13 Basic Approach Simulate impact on consumption using past survey (2004) microdata Consider changes in consumer prices, producer prices, wages 13
14 The threewaypriceimpactin poverty I. Consumer: higher prices reduce purchasing power II. Producer: higher prices increase producers income III. Wages: higher wages for agricultural workers 14
15 Assumptions Income changes are pass-through consumption (one to one) No shifts in consumption No shifts in production Average income level increase with the non-food inflation rate Price changes from May 20 to May
16 Differences with other work Similar to Ivanic and Martin (2008), but 1) Uses detailed national price data (separate producer & consumer) 2) Uses complete food basket With available data, we can analyze effects due to Items that are ¾ of producer sales Items that are ¾ of consumption 16
17 Why national prices and not international commodity prices? Corn Prices (Jan. 20 = 100%) 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Honduras International 17 May Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April June
18 Sorghum Prices (Jan. 20 = 100%) 180% 160% Honduras 140% 120% 100% International 80% 18 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June 320% 280% 240% 200% 160% 120% 80% Rice Prices (Jan. 20 = 100%) International Honduras Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June
19 Impact on consumption by quintile: consumer, producer, wages Per capita consumption impact (Lempiras/year) Avg. Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 5 Consumer Producer Wages Average and individual quintile 19
20 Net impact on consumption (negative) Lempiras/year Average Average and Quintiles Lempiras 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% consumption % % of consumption 20
21 Net impact on poverty rates Headcount Index Poor (All) Extreme Poor Original Change New 21
22 Summary Detailed analysis shows substantial impact on consumption/poverty in Honduras Increase on producers/wages only slight boost to consumption 22
23 Questions? 1. Time period? 2. Correct estimates of background changes in income? 3. Shifts in consumption? 4. Shifts in production? 23
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