British Columbia Labour Force & Employment Dynamics

Transcription

1 British Columbia Labour Force & Employment Dynamics A Historical Review prepared for the: Royal Commission on Workers Compensation in British Columbia Final Report January 31, 1998

2 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Table of Contents: Executive Summary 1. Introduction 2. General Trends 3. Employment in BC Industries 4. Part Time vs. Full Time Employment 5. Self Employment 6. Men vs. Women 7. Employment & Age 8. Population 9. Workplace Injuries 1. Corporate Growth & Scope 11. Other Findings Appendix A

3 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report was prepared at the request of the Royal Commission on Workers Compensation in British Columbia. The objective was to develop a statistical profile of British Columbia from an employment perspective and to provide the Royal Commission with a resource that allows a greater understanding of British Columbia s changing industrial base and labour force characteristics. Total BC employment was estimated at 1.8 million in 1997, an increase of 1.9% over The average annual growth rate was 2.6%, compared to the 5 year average annual growth rate of 3.1%. Women in BC have experienced higher employment growth rates than men for the past five decades but this trend is slowing. Annual growth rate for women during 1991 to 1996 averaged 2.9%, far below the 6% growth rates experienced in the 196's and 197's. Total employment in BC has increased every year in the past twentyfive, except during 1982 when employment losses of 7, were recorded and again in 1983 with an additional employment loss of 1,. Over the past 5 years, total BC employment has increased by an average of 44, per year. From a sector specific perspective, Service Industries now account for over 7 of BC s total employment, an increase of over 5 percentage points since the late 197's and early 198's. Employment in Service industries has increased by 87% since 1976 while the Goods sector has experienced an increase of only 3%. Current figures indicate that 82% of all new employment in BC is service related, while goods related industries account for 18% of employment growth. The Retail Trade sector is the largest single employer in BC contributing for 12. of the BC total. Following closely is general Manufacturing at 11. and Health & Social Services representing 9.3% of total BC employment. More specifically, the industry sectors experiencing the greatest compound growth during were miscellaneous manufacturing, amusement & recreation, provincial administration and insurance & real estate. Those sectors experiencing the most significant five year declines include the metal fabrication industry, insurance carriers, general contractors, and the electrical products industry. Of all BC industry sectors, the most significant decline over was in the forestry sector which suffered an employment loss of 8,4 employees, representing a 3% drop in the sector total. Part-time employment in BC presently accounts for 2% of the provincial total. Although this figure has not changed dramatically for the past 15 years, it does represent a significant increase from the mid 197's, when part-time employment accounted for only of the total. Personal services; accommodation, food & beverage; and amusement & recreation, are the industry sectors employing the highest proportions of part-time workers, all of which currently employ over 3% of their workforce as part-timers. The 38, self-employed persons in BC now account for over 2% of total employment in the province. This is a dramatic rise from the late 197's self-employment figures of 12% to 13%. Over the same twenty-one year period ( ) self-employment in B.C. increased at an average rate of 5.1% per year while non-self employment grew at a much lower 2.2% average. The highest percentage of self employment occurs in the Service, Trade and Construction industries and 64% of all self-employed businesses are unincorporated. Self-employment rates in B.C. have been consistently higher than the national average over the past ten years by an average of two percentage points

4 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page ii In 1996, 66 out of every 1 BC men over the age of 15 were employed while the corresponding figure for women was 53 out of every 1. This ratio for women represents a plateau state which follows a period of significant growth from the mid 196's to From 1989 to 1996, the employment-to-population ratio has remained steady at the current 1996 ratio of 53:1. Women now account for over 4 of the BC workforce, compared to 22% in 1946 and 33% in In comparison, the employment-to-population ratio for men has continued to decline since the mid 196's. The effect of the baby boom can be easily observed in the age breakdown of overall BC employment. In 1976, almost 2 of the workforce was made up of year olds while this age group accounted for only of the total in The year old baby boomers are currently the most prominent age group, and in twenty years, those in the 55+ age group are predicted to comprise a much larger proportion of total BC employment than they do today. Almost 56% of BC s total population of 3,855, now reside in the Lower Mainland and Southwestern BC. A further 18% live in the Vancouver Island & Coastal region and 12% in the Thompson/Okanagan. The remaining live in outlying regions including the Cariboo, Kootenays, North Coast, North East and Nechako. Average annual growth for the province during was 2.67%, the highest average growth rate in the past 25 years. However, analysts expect BC s population growth rate for the next century to decline to less than 2% per year. Regionally, the Lower Mainland/Southwest region has realized the largest proportional population increase over the past 2 years, up almost 3% percentage points (53.% in 1976 to 55.9% in 1996). The Thompson-Okanagan region experienced the highest average annual growth rate for the most recent five year period of 3.58%. Workers Compensation Board statistics demonstrate that the number of reported workplace injuries has been declining for the past six years. 189,418 workplace injuries were reported to the Workers Compensation Board in 1996 which represents one reported injury per year for every nine employees in the province, the lowest ratio in over twenty years. This represents a 13% drop in reported injuries from the all time high of 217, in Part of this decline can be attributed to the shift of BC s employment dynamics away from labour intensive and heavy industry such as Mining, Construction and Manufacturing, and towards service industries such as Business Services and Accommodation, Food & Beverage. The number of businesses in BC has grown by an average annual compound rate of 3.4% to a 1995 level of 151,. This annual rate of growth, however, has declined to less than 2% over the past five years. Over 7 of all BC companies have less than 5 Average Labour Units (ALU s) and over 9% have less than 2 ALU s. In total, these small companies account for less than 2 of total ALU s. Very large firms in BC, representing less than 1% of total companies, account for almost 4% of total ALU s. If one-person self-employed businesses are included, the number of total business in B.C. will double and the proportion of very small businesses will increase from 7 to almost 88%.

5 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 1 1. INTRODUCTION: This report was prepared at the request of the Royal Commission on Workers Compensation in British Columbia. The objective was to develop a statistical profile of British Columbia from an employment perspective and to encourage a greater understanding of British Columbia s industrial base and labour force characteristics. Analysis of labour and employment trends has been made possible through the collection of historical data from the last 2 to 5 years. By identifying trends in areas such as industry growth, aging workforces, women in the workplace, self-employment and part-time workers, this report attempts to paint a picture of the current and historical employment dynamics in British Columbia. This report also includes analysis of workplace injuries and population as they relate to employment. As the British Columbia economy shifts some of it s dependence away from resource based production, emerging growth industries will provide an increasing proportion of new employment opportunities in the province. Care must be taken not to misinterpret temporary, short term shifts as long term systemic changes. This report presents findings on growth rates and trends within specific industry sectors in order to provide a basis for future discussion and planning. Unless otherwise noted, all data used in this study has been compiled from Statistics Canada sources, particularly the Labour Force Survey and custom ordered data. Specific exceptions to the use of Statistics Canada data include reported injury data from the Workers Compensation Board and population data from BC Stats. It is often difficult to choose common denominators when analyzing broad employment and industry trends. Different organization often use unique methods of classifying types of work or businesses. For reasons of data consistency, grouping or classifications developed by Statistics Canada were adopted in this report. Wherever possible, this uniformity has been maintained and any consistency issues are clearly noted in this report.

6 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 2 2. GENERAL TRENDS Statistics Canada employment figures estimate that over 1.8 million persons were employed in British Columbia during This is an increase of 1.9% (35, persons) over corresponding employment figures for It is important to recognize that these figures include all workers in British Columbia, including full-time, part-time and self-employed. Data representing a more detailed breakdown of total B.C. employment will be presented in subsequent sections. Figure 1 illustrates British Columbia employment levels over the past 5 years. The average annual compound growth rate over this period was 3.1% ( 2.4% for Men and 4.7% for Women) however recent growth rates are substantially lower than the 5 year average (see Table 1). Also of note is the dramatic impact of the 1981 economic downturn on total employment in the province. It was not until 1986 that total employment in B.C. recovered to pre-recessionary levels and has since experienced continued growth, weathering less dramatic pauses in the economy during the early and mid 199's. 2, B.C. Employment ( ) 1,5 Employment (,'s) 1, Total Women 5 Men Overall employment growth during the past 5 years has averaged 3.1% per year while population growth (for those over 15 years of age) has increased at a marginally lower 2.8 % compound rate per year over the same period. From substantially higher employment and population growth rates were recorded as baby-boomers came of working age and entered the workforce. Table 1 also illustrates the changing patterns of employment growth for Men vs. Women and clearly shows the leveling-off of employment growth for women in more recent years. This decline in employment growth for women will be analyzed in greater detail in Section 6.

7 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 3 TABLE 1 - Average Compound Growth Rate over Period Time Period Employment Growth (Total) Population Growth ( > 15 yrs old) Employment Growth (Men) Employment Growth (Women) Employment Growth (CANADA) % 2.9% 2.4% 2.9% 1.2% % % 3.6% 1.2% % 2.2% % 2.2% % % % 2.6% 2.4% 6.2% % 2.6% 2.1% 3.% - In terms of real growth (see Figure 2), B.C. experienced the greatest employment gain in 1989 (8, employees) and the greatest loss in 1982 (71, employees). Over the past 35 years, during only two years did B.C. experience a net loss of employment (1982 & 1983). Average real growth over the past 2 years has been approximately 37, employees per year with an average of approximately 44, over the most recent 5 year period ( ). 1 B.C. Employment (Real Change) Employment Change (,'s)

8 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 4 3. EMPLOYMENT IN B.C. INDUSTRIES Overall trends discussed in Section 2 can provide valuable information, however, it is necessary to look at specific industries and industry groupings to determine how the shape of B.C. s workforce and labour market is changing. Many subjective comments have, been made regarding the economic character of B.C., yet for the purposes of this study, only substantiated data has been considered. 15 B.C. Employment (Goods vs. Services) Employment (,'s) 1 5 Service Industries Goods Industries Employment in British Columbia has experienced an approximate 75 / 25 split between Service Producing Industries (SPI) and Goods Producing Industries (GPI) over the past 15 years. Prior to 1982 this relationship was marginally less disparate, averaging 7 / 3 (see Table 2). Although recent employment growth in Service Industries far surpass those in the Goods Industries (see Figure 3), this 75:25 ratio has remained relatively constant over the past decade, however the effect of another major recession could have a significant impact on the Goods Industries, as was experienced in the early 198's. Between , Service Industries added an average of 36, employees each year while the Goods Industries added an annual average of 8,. Represented in another way, these figures indicate that 82% of all new employment in BC has been in service industries while only the goods industries contribute only 18% of all new employment. Even if these relative increases continue, the split between Service & Goods employment will not achieve an increase to a 8:2 ratio for over 5 years. TABLE 2 - Percentage of employment in Goods Producing Industries vs. Service Producing Industries * Goods Industries (%) Service Industries (%) * = Canada average In 1976, employment in Service Producing Industries was estimated at 735, while that in Goods Producing Industries was 331,. The 1996 figures have increased to levels of 1,376, (SPI) and 429, (GPI) representing increases of 87% and 3 % respectively.

9 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 5 Using a Statistics Canada clustering method, which breaks down Service and Goods industry groups data into more specific industry categories, B.C. industries can be ranked by 1996 employment levels. These results can be seen in Table 2. Industry specific data is further detailed in Figures 4 to 9. Table 3 - B.C. Employment Ranking by Industry Group Industry Group Employment (1996) % of Total B.C. Employment 5 Year ( ) Average Annual Compound Growth 5 Year ( ) Average Annual Real Growth Retail Trade 226, ,2 Manufacturing 27, ,9 Health & Social Services 168,1 9.3% 2.6% 4, Other Service Industries 152,2 8.4% 5.1% 6,6 Accommodation, Food & Beverage 136,8 7.6% 2. 3,1 Business Services 134, % 6,1 Construction 126,9 7.% 2.8% 3,4 Educational Services 123, 6.8% 2.8% 3,2 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 112,6 6.2% 3.7% 3,8 Public Administration 15,9 5.9% 3.6% 3,4 Wholesale Trade 9,9 5.% 3.6% 2,9 Transportation 88,4 4.9% -.6% (6) Communication 37,6 2.1%. 2 Agriculture 33,6 1.9% -.4% (1) Logging & Forestry 27, % 4 Mining, Quarrying and Oil Wells 16,2.9% -.1% Other Utilities 11,8.7% 2.6% 3 Fishing & Trapping 6,1.3% -7.7% (6) TOTAL 1,85,8 1% 2.6% 44,47 The data presented in Table 2 shows that most industry groups have experienced a 5 year average annual compound growth rate of between 1% and 4%. Sector groups experiencing annual growth rates outside of this range include: Business Services 5.3%; Other Service Industries 5.1%; Communication.; Mining, Quarry & Oil Wells -.1%; Agriculture -.4%; Transportation -.6%, and; Fishing & Trapping - 7.7%;.

10 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 6 To further illustrate industry specific growth and decline patterns over the past 2 years, Figures 4 through 9 represent the industry groups listed in Table 3 and show sector specific employment levels (bar chart) and the corresponding percentage contribution to total B.C. employment (line graph). Employment (,'s) Construction 25 2% % 1 5 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Retail Trade 25 2% % 1 5 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Manufacturing 25 2% % 1 5 % % of Total BC Employment Figure 4 illustrates the steady growth experienced by the Construction industry over the past 1 years, with a temporary boom in The Retail Trade sector also experienced a temporary boom in 199, and although some growth is evident over the past 5 years, it s contribution to total employment in B.C. has taken a downward turn. Employment in the Manufacturing sector has undergone the most dramatic changes of the three industry groups in Figure 4, suffering greatly during the early 198's economic downturn and experiencing slow recovery. It has taken almost 15 years to regain the employment lost during the 198's and this sector s contribution to total B.C. employment has declined from 16.3% in 1976 to 11. in Employment (,'s) Transportation 12 2% % 4 2 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Wholesale Trade % 8 6 1% 4 2 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 12 2% % 4 2 % % of Total BC Employment The Wholesale Trade and Finance, Insurance & Real Estate industries represented in Figure 5 have maintained a steady contribution to overall employment in B.C. during the past 2 years. The Transportation sector however, has not maintained significant employment growth over the same period and consequently, it s overall contribution to total BC employment has in fact declined marginally as a result. Employment in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate group has experienced the strongest growth of the three industries in Figure 5 almost doubling over the 1976 to 1996 period.

11 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 7 Employment (,'s) Logging & Forestry 5 2% 4 3 1% 2 1 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Communication 5 2% 4 3 1% 2 1 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Other Utilities 5 2% 4 3 1% 2 1 % % of Total BC Employment Logging and Forestry employment in BC has fluctuated inconsistently around a 2 year average employment level of 28,3, hitting a 2 year low in 1982 (22,5), high in 1995 (36,4) and a 1996 level of 27,9. The Communication sector also suffered a significant decline in 1996 following a 2 year high in 1995 but has otherwise maintained a consistent contribution to total BC employment. The Other Utilities sector now contributes less than 1% of total B.C. employment with 1996 employment standing at just under 12,. Employment (,'s) Agriculture 4 2% 3 2 1% 1 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Mining, Quarrying & Oil 4 2% 3 2 1% 1 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Fishing & Trapping 4 2% 3 2 1% 1 % % of Total BC Employment Figure 7 illustrates three industry groups with very different employment growth patterns. The most dramatic is in the Mining, Quarry & Oil sector where the 1996 employment level of 16,2 represents a drop from the 2 year high experienced in While the Agriculture sector appears to experience cyclical growth, maintaining an average employment level of approximately 3,, it s contribution to overall BC employment is on the decline. Employment in the Fishing & Trapping sector has experienced a significant overall decline since 1991, and despite it s small contribution to overall employment in the province (less than one-half of one percent) many other downstream industries such as processing and wholesale trade are directly affected by changes in this sector s employment and output. Employment (,'s) Business Services 15 2% 1 1% 5 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Educational Services 15 3% 2 1 2% 5 1% % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Accomodation, Food & Bev 15 2% 1 1% 5 % % of Total BC Employment Figure 8 presents three sectors that all exhibit strong growth trends and substantial contributions to total B.C. employment. Business Services Employment is on an increasing growth and contribution trend while employment growth in Educational Services and Accommodation, Food & Beverage has fallen off in the past three years. Five year average

12 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 8 annual growth rates for these three sectors are 5.3%, 2.8% and 2. respectively. Employment (,'s) Health & Social Services 2 2% % 5 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Other Service Industries 2 2% % 5 % % of Total BC Employment Employment (,'s) Public Administration 2 2% % 5 % % of Total BC Employment The Health & Social Services sector continues to experience steady employment growth and a strong contribution to total employment in BC. Apart from Fishing and Trapping, the Public Administration sector exhibits the most consistent employment levels with a 2 year average annual growth rate of 2% per year. However, as Figure 9 shows, this sector is experiencing a long term decline in it s proportion of total BC employment. The growth in employment in Other Service Industries, which range from repair shops and beauty salons to cleaning services, has accelerated over the past five years following a period of six or seven years with little or no growth and it s percentage of BC s total employment is now on the increase. Using another method of grouping industry employment, Statistics Canada data is able to provide further, more detailed, insight into B.C. industry sectors. Figure 1 graphically illustrates the thirty specific B.C. industries that provide the highest level of employment in the province. Notably absent are classifications such as Manufacturing and Construction, as these sectors have been broken down into more detailed subsets for this analysis. By comparing average annual growth rates over a five, ten and twenty year period, four different patterns can be recognized in this data. Employment in B.C. industries can be characterized as being in one of: I) Increasing Growth Trend(e.g. Insurance/Real Estate) ii) Decreasing Growth Trend (e.g. Health/Social) iii) Stable Growth Trend (e.g. N/A) iv) Unstable Trend (e.g. General Contractors) To fully understand the impact of these trends, consider rates of return for RRSP s. Comparisons are often made between one, five and ten year rates of return. If corresponding rates for these time periods are 8%, 12% and 14%, this is considered a decreasing growth trend. (i.e. although the rate of return is still positive, short term performance is lower than that of the longer term). The four largest employers in BC: retail trade; health/social; accommodation/ food services, and; business services, have all exhibited declining growth trends with annual growth rates of 1., 2.6%, 2. and 5.3% respectively. Other highlights include the strong recent and historical employment growth in the amusement/recreation sector and the miscellaneous manufacturing sector.

13 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 9 The amusement/recreation sector experienced very large gains during the (EXPO 86) period, increasing 41% over 1984 levels. Interestingly, employment levels dropped by an equivalent amount in 1988, back down to 1984 levels. Discounting these Expo 86 related gains and losses, the 1 year trend would have been more comparable to the 5 and 2 year trends shown in Figure 1. This indicates an industry with extremely high and stable employment growth which can be at least partly attributed to the recent increases in motion picture production, gambling establishments, winter resort developments and golf courses. The Miscellaneous Manufacturing sector has experienced the highest employment growth rates in the past 5 years. This is largely attributable to job growth in high-tech, plastics, and other non-resource based manufacturing and processing industries. Data not included in Figure 1 that should be given special consideration includes employment change data for three particular industries which experienced significant declines over this single year period:

14 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 1 B.C.'s Top 3 Industries Ranking & Growth Rate Comparison Average Annual Compund Growth - -% 1% retail trade (226) health/social (168) acc/food serv (137) bus. services (135) education (123) wholesale trd (91) transportation (85) special trades (84) misc services (52) wood indus. (49) insur/real est (49) finance ind. (48) personal serv (47) g/contractors (39) 5 yr trend 1 yr trend 2 yr trend amus/recreatn (39) prov. admin. (38) communicatn (38) federal adm. (36) Agriculture (34) local adm. (32) forestry (28) print/publish (25) paper/allied (24) food&bev. ind. (22) insuran/carriers (15) elec/gas/water (12) misc/manufact (11) primary metal (1) metal fab. ind. (1) elect. prod. ind (9) figures in brackets = 1996 employment in thousands Communication

15 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 11 (- or -5,5 employees) Forestry (-3% or -8,4 employees) Metal Fabrication (-27% or -2,5 employees) 4. PART TIME VS. FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT In 1996, The B.C. workforce was comprised of 1,443,6 Full-Time employees and 362,1 Part-Time employees. This represents an 8/2 ratio, which has been relatively consistent over the past 15 years, but is a considerable change from the 85/15 ratio of the late 197's. This indicates a greater utilization of Part-Time employment in recent years and as can be seen in Table 4, part time employment has been growing at a marginally faster rate than full time employment. Figure 11 illustrates the relationship between full and part time employment in British Columbia over the past 2 years. 2 B.C. Employment (Part-Time vs. Full-Time) Total Employment Employment (,'s) Part-Time Full-Time 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % % Full-Time % Part-Time Table 4 - Part-Time and Full-Time Employment Growth Trends 5 Year Growth Trend 1 Year Growth Trend 2 Year Growth Trend Part-Time 3.3% 3.% 2.4%

16 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 12 Full-Time % 2.4% Many industries differ in their Part-Time vs. Full-Time employment practices and Figure 12 demonstrates B.C. s top 3 employers and the breakdown of employee type for As would be expected, the service producing industries such as retail trade and accommodation, food & beverage employ a much higher proportion of part-time employees than the goods producing industries. Many of the sectors with high part-time employment are those well suited to the hiring of students and others who, while desiring to work, would be unable to work full-time.

17 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 13 B.C. Employment 1996 Full-Time vs. Part-Time Employees (,'s) % Part-Time % 4% retail trade health/social accom/food serv bus. services education wholesale trade transportation special trades misc services wood indust. insur/real estate finance indust personal services gen. contractors amus/recreatn prov. admin. communication federal adm. agriculture local adm. forestry print/publish paper/allied food&bev. ind. insurance carriers elec/gas/water misc. manufact primary metal metal fab. ind. elect. products Full-Time Part-Time

18 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 14 The three industry groups with the widest fluctuation of part time employment are: Finance industry Low 6.2% (1976) High 25.3% (1994) % S.D. 5.4% Amusement & recreation: Low 31.7% (199) High 47. (1978) % S.D. 4.8% Printing & publishing Low 9.7% (1991) High 22.3% (1982) % S.D. 5.%

19 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page SELF EMPLOYMENT The growth of the Self Employment proportion of the North American labour force has been widely documented and closely watched by economists, marketers and municipal planners alike. In British Columbia, the self employed proportion of the working population has grown at an average annual compound rate of 5.1% over the past 21 years, while the nonself employed proportion has undergone an annual average growth of only 2.2% (see Figure 13). The comparable average annual compounded growth for total employment has been estimated at 2.7% over the same time period. 2 British Columbia: Self Employment vs. Paid Employment Employment (,'s) Paid Employees (non-self employed) Average Annual Compound Growth: 2.2% Self Employed & Unpaid Family Average Annual Compound Growth: 5.1% British Columbia: Self Employment as a % of Total Employment 2% 1% % As a percentage of total employment, the figures for self employment have risen steadily since the earliest available data in 1976 when self employment accounted for 12. of total employment. Estimates for 1997 indicate that self employment represents 2.6% of total employment in British Columbia. This translates to 1 out of every 8 employed persons in 1976 was reported as self employed, and in 1997, this ratio is expected to reach 1 out of every 5. Actual figures show that while 133,5 persons were self employed in 1976, this figure has risen to over 38, in Self employment statistics include data for incorporated and unincorporated businesses as well as well as figures for unpaid family workers. It is yet unclear if or how the Royal Commission will address the issue of unpaid family workers, but as these figures have become decreasingly significant to the overall employment picture over the past 22 years (see Table 5), they do not have a significant impact on the analysis of the self employment

20 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 16 portion of the labour force and have therefore not been excluded. Table 5 - Self Employment & Unpaid Family Members (,'s) Self-Employment* Unpaid Family Members Unpaid Family as a % of Self- Employment Self-Employment* Unpaid Family Members Unpaid Family as a % of Self- Employment *including unpaid family members Business sectors with the highest levels of self-employment include: Service; Trade, and; Construction which, when combined, account for almost 8% of total self employment in Table 6 - Self Employment by Sector (1996) Self Employed in Sector % of total Self Employment Service 144,8 43% Trade 6,1 18% Construction 53, 16% Table 7a shows that almost two-thirds of self employment falls into the Unincorporated Business category and interestingly, the breakdown of male/female employment is substantially different for Incorporated and Unincorporated business. Women currently account for a strong majority (78%) of unpaid family workers which could be attributed to the historical support- services role for family run businesses. It might be argued that this number is expected to decline as more women enter the formal workforce and other social factors such as changing child-rearing responsibilities and opportunities for women. Statistics, however, show that this may not be the case as the 2 year average breakdown for unpaid family workers is 81% female, with a 2 year high of 9% in 199 and a 1996 level of 78%. Table 7a - Self Employment by Business Structure (1996)

21 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 17 % of Total Self Employed % Men % Women Incorporated Businesses 3 76% 24% Unincorporated Businesses 64% 59% 41% Unpaid Family Member 1% 22% 78% Statistics Canada also clusters self-employment data by whether or not the self-employed person uses paid help in their business. This breakdown provides a general idea of how many self-employed persons are running their businesses on their own vs. those using paid employees to help them. As shown in Table 7b, the change over the past 1 years has been dramatic. Prior to the mid 198's the number of self employed individuals working without paid help was comparable to the number of self-employed individuals working with paid employees. Since then, there has been dramatic growth in the number of self-employed individuals working alone, without paid employees. Table 7b - Self Employment by Business Structure ( ) (thousands of employees) with paid help without paid help Comparing BC data for self employment to Canadian averages for 1987 to 1996 (see Table 8), it is clear that B.C. has maintained a higher percentage of self employed persons than the national average. While the percentage of self employment is rising in both BC and Canada, there is no evidence to suggest that BC won t continue to exceed the national average in the future. Table 8 - Percentage of self employment as a percentage of total employment (BC vs. Canada) BC 16.6% 16.% 15.% 16.3% 17.% 17.2% 18.1% 17.8% 17.1% 18.8% Canada 14.1% 14.2% 13.8% 14.4% 14.9% 15.1% 15.8% 15.9% 15.8% 16.6% Ratio

22 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page MEN vs. WOMEN The sizeable increases in the number of women entering the workforce over the past 5 years has slowed (see Table 1), however Figure 14 shows that employment increases have generally favoured women over the past 2 years. Statistics Canada figures indicates that employment for women was 448, higher in 1996 than in 1976, while employment for men increased by only 312, over the same 2 year period. The 1982 to 1984 period played a significant role in this difference, with men being much harder hit by the recession at that time. 6 B.C. Employment Change (Men vs. W omen) Employee Change (,'s) Men Women -8 Accordingly, the pattern of employment-to-population ratios for Men and Women are significantly different. On the men s side, this ratio has a widely varying but overall decreasing trend (see Figure 16). The result of this declining trend is that a lower proportion of the male population over age 15 are employed in 1996 (66/1) than at any time in the past 5 years, excluding the recessionary period of 1983 to 1985 where the employment-topopulation ratio dropped to 67.4, 65.5 and 64.2 respectively. The Canada average ratio for 1996 was Conversely, women have until very recently experienced a steady increase in their employment ratio, achieving an all-time high of 54.1 in 1994, with the 1996 level dropping marginally to The comparable Canada average ratio for 1996 was Figure 15 provides a historical representation of the employment-to-population ratio for BC women. While the employment ratio for women is still over 1% lower than their male counterparts, this gap is narrowing at a rate of almost 1% per year due primarily to the downward trend for the men s ratio. It is difficult to predict if or when a natural level will eventually be reached for male and female employment ratios, however it could be suggested that the women s threshold has been reached as there has not been any significant change to the ratio since As baby boomers reach retirement age in the next 1 to 2 years, it could be expected that the ratios for both men and women will drop considerably further.

23 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 19 Figures 15 and 16 also allow comparison between the cyclical patterns of unemployment for women and men. Figure 15 shows a very definite pattern for women and it is interesting to note that the cycles have become progressively longer in duration. The unemployment cycle for men is far less apparent but does tend to follow the same pattern as that of the women. Employment & Population (,'s) 2, 1,5 1, 5 Women in B.C. Employment / Population Ratio Population Employment Unemployment Rate Employment / Population Ratio & Unemployment Rate Employment & Population (,'s) 2, 1,5 1, 5 Men in B.C. Employment / Population Ratio Population Employment Unemployment Rate Employment/Population Ratio & Unemployment Rate

24 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 2 Figures 17 to 19 illustrates the gender changes of BC s workforce over the past 5 years. By 1996, women accounted for over 4 of the total workforce, twice the percentage in 1946 and although continued growth at this rate is unlikely, it is not inconceivable that women could surpass men as the majority gender in the workforce at some point in the near future. The Canada average gender breakdown in 1996 was 54.7% men and 45.3% women, almost identical to the figures for BC. B.C. Employment (1946) (78%) Men Women (22%) B.C. Employment (1971) (66.8%) Men Women (33.2%) B.C. Employment (1996) (54.6%) Men Women (45.4%)

25 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page EMPLOYMENT AND AGE The most dramatic changes in the age of B.C. s workforce is reflected in Figure 2 which shows that while 15 to 24 year olds made up almost 2 of the workforce in 1976, this age group represents less than of total employment in Appropriately, a corresponding increase for the 35 to 44 year old age group has occurred as baby boomers progress through their working careers. As Figure 21 demonstrates, the contribution to total employment by those aged 55 and over has dropped slightly, yet increased representation by this age group can be expected in the future as baby boomers continue to move through the age groups. Until approximately 1992, year olds comprised the majority of employment in B.C. and although that top ranking is now taken by year olds, it is only by a small margin. It is interesting to note that the 45 year and older proportion of the workforce has increased from 28.7% in 1976 to 31.2% in While the population bubble (see Figure 22) would explain this increase, it might have been expected that the recent focus on early retirement programs and incentives would offset this increase. These figures suggest that early retirement is perhaps an idea who s day has yet to come. 3% % of B.C. Employment by age group % % % 65+

26 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 22 B.C. Employment (1976) by 1 year age groupings B.C. Employment (1996) by 1 year age groupings (26.3%) (27.3%) (24.9%) (14.) (1.) 65+ (1.%) (28.%) (1.4%) 65+ (8.8%) (19.%) (17.2%) (21.%) 45-54

27 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 23 B.C. Population Age Group Population as a % of Total % 1% 2% 2 Ages -4 Ages 5-14 Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages POPULATION British Columbia s 1996 estimated population was 3,855, of which 5.3% were females and 49.7% were males. Annual compound population growth has been most recently estimated at 2.67%, or roughly 1, new residents each year. Figure 22 shows the breakdown of B.C. s population by age cohort. Currently, the year olds make up the largest proportion, while in 1976 this position was occupied by the year olds. Over the next 2 years, as this baby-boom group moves into the and year age groups, many issues such as health care, workers compensation and ergonomics will require greater consideration by all stakeholders. Conversely, as can be seen in Figure 22, the percentage of B.C. s population who will be entering into the workforce in the next 2 years will be lower than in the past two decades. Population growth over the past 2 years has varied widely between BC s regions. All of the smaller regions have often shown growth levels well below the provincial average and estimates indicate that this pattern is expected to continue into the next century. TABLE 9 - British Columbia Regional Population - Average Annual Compound Change (%)

28 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page to to to to to to to to to to 221 Vancouver Island / Coast Lower Mainland / Southwest Thompson-Okanagan Kootenay Cariboo North Coast Nechako North East British Columbia

29 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 25 Although all regions are experiencing positive population growth, and are expected to continue to experience positive growth, B.C. s more populous regions will be growing faster than the less populous areas. Population growth rates in the smaller regions, often closely tied to the success or failure of specific industries, are much more likely to fluctuate than growth rates in the more diversified, more highly populated regions. Figure 23 illustrates the 1996 breakdown of B.C. s population by region and Table 1 offers a comparison of 1976, 1986 and 1996 regional contributions. B.C. Population (1996) (By Development Region) (1.7%) Northeast (18.6%) Vancouver Island / Coast (55.9%) Lower Mainland / Southwest (4.) Cariboo (4.%) Kootenay (1.2%) Nechako (1.9%) North Coast (12.3%) Thompson / Okanagan TABLE 1 - Regional Population as a percentage of B.C. total Employment/Population Ratio (1996) Lower Mainland / Southwest 53.% 54.4% 55.9% 61.% Vancouver Island / Coast 18.8% 18.6% 18.6% 55.7% Thompson-Okanagan 12.% 11.8% 12.3% 55. Cariboo 5.3% 5.2% % Kootenay 5.1% 4.6% 4.% 54.7% North Coast % 1.9% 67.8% North East 1.8% 2.% 1.7% 68.% Nechako 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 67.8%

30 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page New Injuries Reported to WCB 2 Injuries (,'s) Source: Workers' Compensation Board 9. WORKPLACE INJURIES The Workers Compensation Board of British Columbia collects injury/time-loss data in many different ways. Figures 24 and 25 present data based on reported injuries for 1976 through These figures cannot be directly compared to the number of claims presented in Table 11 as less than half of all reported injuries result in a wage-loss or time-loss claim. It is important to stress that, although these are the most accurate injury figures available, when referring to new injuries, the Workers Compensation Board is in fact referring to the number of injuries actually reported to them. As any particular injury may or may not be reported to the WCB (particularly minor injuries not requiring health care or time loss payments) the data used in Figures 24 and 25 are most representative in terms of trends as opposed to finite injury occurrences. Figure 24 shows that the number of reported injuries has been falling after a period of steady increases up until 199. The sharp decline in reported injuries during the early 198's can be largely attributed to a parallel drop in total employment during that recessionary period. The more recent decline in reported injuries cannot however be attributed to the same causes, as employment levels have been on the rise. If the number of reported injuries is measured against corresponding employment levels over time, a more meaningful representation of injury occurrence can be developed. Figure 25 indicates that the percentage of reported injuries is currently at a 2 year low of 1. of total employment, a 33% decrease from 1979 levels of 15.6%. Presented in another manner, there is now approximately one reported injury for every 9.5 employees, as opposed to one reported injury for every 6.5 workers in 1979.

31 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 27 2% Reported New Injuries as a % of Total B.C. Employment 1% % Source: Workers' Compensation Board It is interesting to note the decline in injuries as a percentage of employment during the early 198's economic downturn. It would be difficult to establish that safety training and accident prevention accounts for this substantial drop in injury rates, however it may be possible to attribute a large part of the decline to proportionally high losses in employment in some of the more labour intensive industries such as Manufacturing, Mining, Logging and Construction (see Figures 4 to 9 and Table 11 for related data) which changed the overall employment balance in the province. As these labour intensive industry sectors began to recover in the late 198's, the decline in number of reported new injuries stalled and eventually began to increase (see Figure 24), resulting in a corresponding increase in the relationship between injuries and total employment. Since the peak in 199, however, subsequent years have realized a decrease in the percentage of reported injuries. This decline could be attributed to a combination of many different factors including continued changes to the industrial base of the province, increased prevention initiatives or even a systemic change in the motivation of workers to report minor or inconsequential injuries. One other statistic of note is that for the past five years, the percentage of reported injuries by gender of worker has averaged 7 men and 2 women. This ratio has fluctuated by only +/- 1% over this period. Compare these reported injury figures to the 5 male / 4 female gender breakdown of total employment in BC. Wage Loss claims, as shown below in Table 7, reflect claims where WCB has had to compensate for wage or time loss. As mentioned previously, claims in any given year could be for injuries sustained in any previous year. As a result this data does not reflect the actual time of injury but the timing of the claim and while useful for comparison purposes, these figures cannot be directly compared to the reported injury figures previously mentioned.

32 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 28 TABLE 11 - WCB Wage Loss Claims (in order of 1995 magnitude) Protective Service Construction Trades Fabricating, Assembling, Repairing Processing Transport Equipment Operating Materials Handling Medicine & Health Machining Clerical Forestry & Logging Other Occupations Sales Farming, Ranching Social Sciences Natural Sciences, Engineering Teaching Other Equipment Operating Mining, Quarrying, Gas & Oil Artistic, Recreational Fishing, Hunting, Trapping Managerial, Administration TOTAL CORPORATE GROWTH & SCOPE

33 British Columbia - Labour Force & Employment Dynamics - A Historical Review Page 29 Number of Businesses in B.C Thousands Since 198, the number of businesses in British Columbia has continued to grow at a 17 year average of 3.4% per year. In 1995, there were an estimated 151, firms conducting business in B.C. This includes all private and public sector businesses or organizations as well as unincorporated businesses with paid employees. Not included in these figures are unincorporated businesses that do not have any paid employees (i.e. unincorporated selfemployed businesses). According to Statistics Canada data, the number of businesses in B.C. has increased by approximately 1% over the 5 year period of 199 to This increase in less than half of that for the preceding 5 year period of where the number of businesses increased by over 2%. To more fully understand the changes in B.C. s corporate structure, detailed breakdowns by business size have been provided in Table 12 and Figure 27. From this more detailed data it is easy to see the continuing increase in number of small business operations in the province. NOTE: It is necessary to understand that ALU s (Average Labour Units) are not directly comparable to employment figures. ALU figures can differ markedly from employment figures and some of the overall growth/decline trends are contradictory. In basic terms, an ALU is calculated by dividing a company s total payroll by the annual average earnings per worker in that specific industry. (Therefore ALU data can be affected by variables such as strikes & lockouts which lower total payroll but does not generally affect average earnings). Also, ALU data does not include figures for individuals who are running their own unincorporated businesses without any paid employees. ALU figures are useful however for general comparison purposes and are being used as such in this analysis.. Table 12 shows that while very small business account for a large proportion of recent business and employment growth, large firms (1+ ALU s) still account for over half of BC s employment. The most recent Statistics Canada data available provide the breakdown of B.C. s corporate structure as follows: