Above Average growth expected in the GTA and Kitchener Waterloo Area in 2017

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3 Above Average growth expected in the GTA and Kitchener Waterloo Area in 2017 The GTA and Kitchener Waterloo are also forecasted to have higher GDP growth through 2020 Southwestern Ontario will also have slightly below average GDP growth in 2017 Growth in Northern Ontario will be very slow, just above 1% This will be the same for the North through

4 Ontario s GDP growth forecasted to slow in coming years GDP growth for Ontario was 2.9% in 2016, so will be slower) 4

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6 Trend for ICI permit value has been increasing since recession Total ICI permit values have increased 28% since the recession Fairly flat overall since 2011 Trend has been increasing slightly since

7 Stimulus didn t have a sustained impact on commercial or industrial sectors Commercial permit values returned to recession level in 2011 but have steadily increased since Institutional permit values have been in decline since 2011 peak Industrial permit values have been flat in post recession years Increase in industrial activity which was expected with lower Canadian dollar is yet to happen Canadian Dollar has been below 85cents for over 2 years, and below 80 cents for over a year and a half 7

8 Driven by a steady housing market and continued growth in non residential activity, the Ontario construction industry has created nearly 152,000 jobs since Unemployment rates have been fairly steady at around 6.5 percent, with the exception of the last recession period, which drove unemployment rates to near 10 percent. Residential activity accounts for more than half of all construction employment. Engineering construction and ICI* building are evenly split, while non residential maintenance accounts for a smaller share of construction employment. 8

9 Trend for ICI permit value has been increasing since recession Total ICI permit values have increased 28% since the recession After 2010 stimulus, permit values returned to pre recession level between Trend has been increasing since 2013 (This data is only for Q1 Q3 each year, the trends and analysis don t change for full calendar year data (Q1 Q4)) 9

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11 Confidence is increasing in 2017, up 3points compared to last year Confidence Indicator is calculated by adding the % who think they ll do more business, plus half of the % who think they ll do the same amount of business Contactors Survey Details: Survey of 500 contractors in Ontario conducted in January

12 Engineering project starts expected to stay at 2016 level in 2017, then activity is expected to increase over % increase in engineering starts between % increase in ICI project starts in 2016 and steady increases every year after that 23% increase in ICI between ICI building: - Industrial rises modestly across the decade. - A stable level of institutional investment and the up-cycle in commercial building that extends to 2018 sustains ICI building activity, followed by more moderate growth over the long term. Engineering construction: - Utilities, infrastructure and transportation projects are dominant sources of engineering demands, sustaining historically high levels of investment and employment. 12

13 Central Ontario forecasted to have slight decline in ICI starts in 2017 ( 9%) Significant increases in all other regions in 2017: GTA (+36%) Eastern (+33%) Southwestern (+44%) Northern (+79%) Long term growth shown in far right column Starts in GTA, Central, Southwestern forecasted to increase over 20% between Smaller long term ncreases in Eastern and Northern 13

14 Water/Wastewater will see a lot of activity in 2017, particularly in the GTA and Central Ontario Hamilton s Woodward Facility (which will be discussed later) will be one of Ontario s major Water/Wastewater projects Education projects at all levels (primary, secondary, postsecondary) will increase in 2017 with major projects across the province Retail activity is forecasted to increase in Hamilton and Brantford, and only increase slightly in the GTA Hamilton is expected to have an increase in manufacturing starts, as is the GTA and Southwestern Ontario Only declines are in warehousing and government offices 14

15 Water/Wastewater Slight decline in Water/Wastewater in 2017 is due to forecasted declines in the City of Toronto and Halton Region Water/Wastewater is expected to increase in all regions in the coming years Bridges Starts in bridge projects in 2017 are expected to decrease across the province (all regions except Eastern forecast decreases) Manufacturing Big increases forecasted in Southwest, GTA, and North Warehouses Starts forecasted to decline in GTA and Eastern Ontario Retail Increases in all regions Commercial Offices Increase led by GTA Hotels Increases in all regions 56% increase overall Educational This includes primary, secondary and post secondary We re seeing increased activity across the province in schools and universities and colleges 41% increase overall Medical Increases in all regions, but primarily the GTA Starts in the GTA are expected to double in 2017 There are several major I.O. hospital projects in the GTA which I ll be talking about in a few minutes Government Offices Only declining in Central and Southwestern regions 15

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