Understanding the Crisis in Greece

Transcription

1 Understanding the Crisis in Greece

2 Also by Theodore Pelagidis WELFARE STATE AND DEMOCRACY IN CRISIS (co-edited)

3 Understanding the Crisis in Greece From Boom to Bust Michael Mitsopoulos and Theodore Pelagidis

4 Michael Mitsopoulos and Theodore Pelagidis 2011 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 2nd edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2011 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mitsopoulos, Michael. Understanding the crisis in Greece : from boom to bust / Michael Mitsopoulos and Theodore Pelagidis. p. cm. 1. Financial crises Greece History 21st century. 2. Greece Economic conditions Political corruption Greece History 21st century. I. Pelagidis, Theodore. II. Title. HB M dc A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress

5 To Georgia and to our daughter Veronica M. M. To Elli T. P.

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7 Contents List of Figures xi Part I 1 Introduction 3 2 Vikings in Greece: Rents, the Design of the Greek Political System and the Blockage of Reforms Introduction Description of the players of the game Powerful interest groups as rent-seeking Vikings in Greece Rationally ignorant and misinformed voters who are afraid of reform The role of the media as an obstacle to reform The administration as a prize for the interest groups The failure of the mandate holders Conclusion 20 References 22 3 Corruption, Policy Inadequacy and the Greek Constitution Introduction Literature survey Mandate holders and their motive to get corrupted Democracy: The strength of the government, minorities and the separation of powers Minorities: Potential corruptors and protectors of democracy The practice of creating strong governments with sufficient separation of powers Proposals for constitutional reform in Greece Conclusion 51 References 52 vii

8 viii Contents 4 Efficiency and Quality of Justice in Greece Introduction Measures of the judiciary s efficiency Analysis of an indirect measure of the time required to dispose justice in Greece Appeals court decisions case facts as a direct proxy for the time needed to dispose justice in Greece European Court of Human Rights decisions regarding delays in Greek courts Time needed to dispose cases and resources The increase in the appellate rate The cost of using official arbitration Rents and the judiciary: The Greek case of demand and supply for legal services Simplifying procedures and strengthening accountability Preserving the independence of the judiciary during reform Conclusions 103 References 104 Part II 5 Strong Growth and Weak Institutions: The Greek Paradox Reconsidered Introduction Greece: Rapid growth over the past years Low competitiveness combined with a weak labor market Low competitiveness A weak labor market Taxation and labor market paradoxes Facts on personal income taxation A summary of the facts on personal income taxation Paradoxes of the Greek labor market explained 163

9 Contents ix 5.5 Private sector salaried employment attributes, corporate taxation and corporate profitability Private sector salaried employment, employer size and the relative attractiveness of public sector employment Corporate income tax contribution in Greece Profitability of Greek companies The current crisis and the Greek financial system Certain basic parameters of the Greek pension system Main parameters of the Greek public finances The examples of Finland and Ireland and how they can be an example for Greece Conclusions 219 Appendix 1 Road Transport in Greece and Government Intervention 227 A1.1 An example of how the reform debate in Greece does not focus on issues that are crucially related to the low competitiveness of the country 227 Appendix 2 Shop Opening Hours in Greece 231 A2.1 An example of how consumer interests are not a consideration in reform debates when one has to deregulate, rather than regulate 231 Appendix 3 Basic Examples of Details that Degrade the Greek Business Environment 236 A3.1 Tax on raised capital 236 A3.1.1 The situation in Greece 236 A3.1.2 European trends 236 A3.2 Publications in the Government Gazette 236 A3.2.1 The situation in Greece 236 A3.2.2 European trends 237 A3.3 Multiple notifications of a new hiring 237 A3.3.1 The situation in Greece 237 A3.3.2 European trends 238 A3.4 Taxing the transfer of private limited companies 238 A3.4.1 The situation in Greece 238 A3.4.2 European trends 238

10 x Contents A3.5 Regulatory impact assessment 238 A3.5.1 The situation in Greece 238 A3.5.2 European trends 239 A3.6 Certificate of origin for exports 239 A3.6.1 The situation in Greece 239 A3.6.2 European trends 240 References for Chapter 5 and Appendices 241 Notes 246 Index 249

11 List of Figures 2.1 Total income declared by income bracket 18 Source: Ministry of Finance data for financial year Total income tax paid by income bracket 18 Source: Ministry of Finance data for financial year Remaining cases and postponed cases as percentage of total cases introduced 60 Sources: National Statistical Service of Greece (ESYE), authors computations 4.2 Unresolved and postponed cases to total cases introduced. Civil courts 61 Source: National Statistical Service of Greece (ESYE), authors computations 4.3 Unresolved to total cases introduced. Administrative courts 61 Source: National Statistical Service of Greece (ESYE), authors computations 4.4 Only unresolved cases compared to unresolved and postponed cases to total cases introduced. Civil courts 62 Source: National Statistical Service of Greece (ESYE), authors computations 4.5 Duration of cases that have been ordered to be retried by the Areios Pagos in Source: Published court decisions for Duration of cases that have been reaffirmed by the Areios Pagos in Source: Published court decisions for Budget of the Ministry of Justice as a percentage of the GDP 72 Source: Government annual budgets 4.8 New cases introduced to appeals courts to cases concluded by first instance courts 76 Source: National Statistical Service of Greece (ESYE), authors computations 4.9 Composition of regulation indices constructed by Paterson et al. (2003) for lawyers and notaries public 79 xi

12 xii List of Figures 4.10 Overall indicator for legal services according to OECD indicator of regulatory conditions in professional services sectors 80 Source: OECD 4.11 Comparison of details of list of procedural steps necessary to enforce a contract by Doing Business for Greece, France and Germany 101 Source: Real GDP growth in Greece and Europe 111 Source: AMECO 5.2 Timing of reforms in energy, transport and communications (increase in reform effort) 112 Source: OECD International Regulation Database Economics Dept. Working Paper no. 530, Demand injections in Greece 113 Sources: Bank of Greece, Ministry of Finance, European Commission and Eurostat 5.4 Interbank rates 114 Source: Bank of Greece 5.5 Price index changes as a percentage, year-on-year 114 Sources: ESYE and Eurostat 5.6 Yearly percentage change in financing of households and businesses from domestic MFIs 115 Sources: European Central Bank and Bank of Greece 5.7 Loans by MFIs as a percentage of the GDP. November 2008 data. NF: Non-financial 116 Source: European Central Bank 5.8 Government gross consolidated debt and loans by MFIs as a percentage of the GDP. November 2008 data. NF: Non-financial Eurozone member countries 116 Sources: European Central Bank and European Commission 5.9 Total indebtness as a percentage of the GDP. Greece and eurozone average 117 Sources: European Central Bank, Bank of Greece and European Commission

13 List of Figures xiii 5.10 Year-on-year percentage price index changes. General price index and index for telecommunication services 117 Source: ESYE 5.11 Investment-to-GDP ratio. Greece and eurozone Employment expectations in construction. Greece and eurozone 119 Source: European Commission 5.13 Credit expansion and private consumption yearly change. Greece 120 Sources: ESYE and Bank of Greece 5.14 Year-on-year percentage change in private consumption and investment 120 Source: ESYE 5.15 Inflation differential. Goods and services. Greece versus eurozone (EA-13) Inflation differential. Goods and services. Greece and Ireland versus eurozone Goods and services balance as a percentage of the GDP. Greece and Ireland Goods and services balance as a percentage of the GDP. Greece Direct investment in reporting economy. FDI inward (net flow change in billion euros) 125 Source: UNCTAD 5.20 Competitiveness ranking, corruption ranking and income ranking. All countries 128 Sources: Doing Business, World Economic Forum, Transparency International and United Nations 5.21 Administrative cost as a percentage of the GDP by EU member state 129 Source: Kox (2005) as CPB s contribution to the EU s 2005 Competitiveness Report

14 xiv List of Figures 5.22 OECD regulation index for professional services 130 Sources: OECD indicator for regulation in professional services, (2007) 5.23 Corruption and regulation, all countries 131 Sources: World Bank and Transparency International 5.24 State control price controls 132 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.25 State control. Use of command and control regulation 133 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.26 Administrative burdens on start-ups 134 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.27 Barriers to entrepreneurship Sector-specific administrative burden 134 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.28 Barriers to entrepreneurship Barriers to entry in services 135 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.29 Barriers to FDI 135 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.30 State control. Involvement in business operation 136 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.31 Wage earnings in Greece as an average of EU-15 for comparable household GDP and employment growth. Greece 138 Source: National Statistical Service of Greece (ESYE) 5.33 Employment, old age population and unemployment rate in Greece 138 Sources: ESYE and Eurostat 5.34 Unemployment in Greece, Eurozone 16 (EA-16) and the US 139

15 List of Figures xv 5.35 Employment ratio for the population over 15 years of age for various European countries 139 Source: OECD 5.36 Adjusted wage share. Greece and EU Source: AMECO 5.37 Hours of employment. Various countries 142 Source: OECD 5.38 Wage earners to self-employed (non-employers) in European countries. Q data EPL. Restrictiveness and diversion of protection legislation on temporary employment 143 Source: OECD. Index scale of 0 6 from least to most restrictive 5.40 Progressivity of income taxes (without social security contributions) 144 Sources: OECD Taxing Wages Database and OECD Calculations 5.41 Distribution of monthly wages and corresponding tax wedge. 145 Source: IKA for employee distribution data, Ministry of Finance for wedge and authors computations 5.42 Personal income tax brackets. European countries 149 Source: European Commission and Ministry of Finance 5.43 Minimum wages. European countries Proportion of full-time workers earning minimum wage Employment rate and tax wedge in Greece 151 Source: OECD 5.46 Average income to median income. Percentage difference. European countries 151 for year S80/S20 income quintile share ratio. European countries 152 for year 2006

16 xvi List of Figures 5.48 Income from salaries and wages, and self-employment to total income per bracket. Greece for financial year Source: Ministry of Finance 5.49 Taxable income and personal income tax per income bracket. Greece for financial year Source: Ministry of Finance 5.50 Greek workforce by insurance type 154 Source: ESYE labor force survey for Q Insured by IKA may include up to 200,000 that work for publicly-owned companies or entities controlled by the general and central government 5.51 Personal income declared and tax paid per income bracket. Greece for financial year Sources: Data of the annual statistical bulletin of Tax Data, General Secretariat for Information Systems, Ministry of Finance 5.52 Percentage of individuals according to declared income per income bracket in financial year Source: Ministry of Finance 5.53 Taxation trends in the EU. Tax contributions by Source as a percentage of the GDP 159 Source: Taxation trends in the EU, 2008 edition, European Commission 5.54 Product market regulation and total economy labor productivity acceleration in OECD countries 164 Source: Graph from Conway et al. (2006), Regulation, Competition and Productivity Convergence. OECD Economics dept. Working Paper no Real unit labor cost in Greece relatively to rest of EU Source: AMECO Labor productivity. European countries 167 Source: European Economic Forecasts Autumn 2009, European Commission 5.57 Real compensation per employee. European countries 169 Source: European Economic Forecasts Autumn 2006, European Commission

17 List of Figures xvii 5.58 Average monthly remuneration, full-time and part-time employment. By employer size. Greece. In euros 170 Source: IKA data from June Employer size is by number of employees insured with IKA 5.59 Employers and total social security contributions by employer size. Greece 171 Source: IKA data from June Employer size is by number of employees insured with IKA 5.60 Employers and insured employees. By employer size. Greece 171 Source: IKA data from June Employer size is by number of employees insured with IKA 5.61 Full-time and part time employment according to employer size. Greece 172 Source: IKA data from June Employer size is by number of employees insured with IKA 5.62 Monthly gross salary for private and public control. European countries Taxation trends in the EU. Direct taxes, corporate taxes as a percentage of the GDP 176 Source: European Commission 5.64 Dividend taxation, upon distribution to individuals, and taxation of corporate income. European countries 177 Source: Tax database, European Commission 5.65 Corporate and personal income tax as a percentage of the GDP. Greece and EU-13, data for year Source: European Commission 5.66 Profits and tax according to legal form of enterprises. Greece 181 Source: Ministry of Finance, General Secretariat for Information Systems 5.67 Official and effective tax rates per fiscal year. Greece 183 Source: Ministry of Finance, General Secretariat for Information Systems 5.68 Profitability of Greek manufacturing 185 Source: ICAP 5.69 Profitability of non-financial companies. European countries 186 Sources: BACH database and ICAP

18 xviii List of Figures 5.70 Greek and German ten-year government bond yields 188 Sources: Bank of Greece and Bundesbank 5.71 Government debt and balance of payment as a percentage of the GDP. European countries Sovereign debt ratings. January Eurozone member countries 189 Source: Rating agencies 5.73 Tier 1 according to ECB. Eurozone member countries banking sector. End of Source: European Central Bank (ECB) 5.74 Profitability of banking sector in OECD countries 196 Source: OECD Banking profitability data 5.75 Expenditure of eurozone member countries banking sector as a percentage of the total assets in Source: European Central Bank (ECB) 5.76 Total operating income of eurozone member countries banking sector as a percentage of the total assets in Source: European Central Bank (ECB) 5.77 Total profits before tax of eurozone member countries banking sector as a percentage of the total assets in Source: European Central Bank (ECB) 5.78 Number of Greek pensioners 199 Sources: Ministry of Employment and Social Protection, General Secretariat for Social Security. Social budget of Government budget, various years. Data for calendar year 2007 and 2001, as specified 5.79 Greek yearly expenditure on pensions 200 Sources: Government budget, social budget and Fund of Political Employees of Public Sector 5.80 Average monthly expenditure per Greek pensioner 200 Sources: As in figures 5.78 and Distribution of Greek main and supplementary pensions in Source: The pensions for 2005 are given by the Panhellenic Federation of Employees of Institutions of Social Policy. The Ministry of Employment and Social Protection does not supervise the sea worker s fund (NAT) and the main pension plan for government employees

19 List of Figures xix 5.82 Distribution of Greek main pensions except farmers fund and comparison with farmers fund in Source: The pensions of 2005 are given by the Panhellenic Federation of Employees of Institutions of Social Policy. The Ministry of Employment and Social Protection does not supervise the sea worker s fund (NAT) and the main pension plan for government employees 5.83 Distribution of retiriement age for IKA, men and women in Source: Annual report of IKA for Average retirement age for IKA. Old age and inability 204 Source: Annual reports of IKA 5.85 Average full work years retirement at IKA. Old age and inability 204 Source: Annual reports of IKA 5.86 Net revenue, primary expenditure and interest expenditure of Greek central government budget 207 Source: Annual government budgets 5.87 Interest cover of Greek general government 209 Source: Annual government budgets 5.88 Interest payments to government debt and ten-year government bond yields. Greece 209 Sources: Annual government budgets and Bank of Greece 5.89 General government expenditure as a percentage of the GDP. Greek Stability and Growth Program projections. January General government expenditure reduction and revenue increase as a percentage of the GDP. Greek Stability and Growth Program projections. January Extraordinary measures taken by the Greek government for the stabilization of the fiscal situation until April Source: Government announcements and government pursers estimates that accompanied draft laws