INDUSTRY 2015 & BEYOND
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- Reginald Baker
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1 INDUSTRY 2015 & BEYOND Lost wealth may be replaced by industry, lost knowledge by study, lost health by temperance or medicine, but lost time is gone forever. Samuel Smiles
2 The Macro-Economic Picture WynBay LLEN WhaleSongServices
3 Magic Numbers? - Major Parameters Table 2: Major economic parameters Outcomes Forecasts Projections Real GDP /2 2 3/4 3 1/4 3 1/2 3 1/2 Employment /2 1 1/ Unemployment rate /4 6 1/2 6 1/ /4 Consumer price index /4 2 1/2 2 1/2 2 1/2 2 1/2 Wage price index /2 2 1/2 2 3/4 2 3/4 3 1/4 Nominal GDP /2 3 1/4 5 1/2 5 1/4 5 1/2 (a) Year average unless otherwise stated. In to , employment, the wage price index and WynBay LLEN Australian Treasury Budget Paper No 1. May 2015 WhaleSongServices
4 Australian Treasury - Outlook 2. Looking for this 3. We have this GDP Growth % Year-ended % 1. You were Here Quarterly Source: ABS GDP Projections to 2020 are around 2.3% Growth rate [Q] is around 0.75% +/- WynBay LLEN Australian Treasury - January 2015 RBA 5th August 2015 WhaleSongServices
5 2.7% % GDP? Yeah. Nah. WynBay LLEN WhaleSongServices
6 Industry Overview WynBay LLEN WhaleSongServices
7 Industry Size (Revenue in Billions) 1. Health Services $ Road Freight $ Computer System Design $ Telecommunications Services $ Engineering Consulting $ Wireless Telecommunications $21.8 WynBay LLEN IBIS World WhaleSongServices
8 Industry % Employment Growth WynBay LLEN IBIS World WhaleSongServices
9 Industry Employment Numbers Growth WynBay LLEN IBIS World WhaleSongServices
10 Industry - Value Add WynBay LLEN IBIS World WhaleSongServices
11 Australian Industry 1. Social Services 2. Distribution Services 3. Other Business Services 4. Mining 5. Financial Services 6. Construction 7. Manufacturing 8. Personal Services 9. Utilities 10. Agriculture industry.gov.au WhaleSongServices
12 Industry - Summary The Australian economy recorded 24 consecutive years of economic growth up to and continues to stand out as one of the best [but slowing] performers among OECD countries. However There is a noticeable divergence in industry performance. Cyclical and Structural changes dominate policy debate. Structural or not?? the decline in the relative share of Manufacturing output and the accompanying increase in Services is a phenomenon shared by most major OECD economies. Uneven exposure & regional variations in structural shifts show job losses over the last decade in Manufacturing, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and Information, Media & Telecommunications have been offset by more than a million job gains in higher paying industries. The type of job creation and the location of these new jobs imposes costs on some workers and regions, making PLACE more important than ever before. WynBay LLEN Aust Gov WhaleSongServices
13 Australian Industry Value-add & Employment WynBay LLEN Industry.Gov.Au
14 Australian Industry Output - Changes Manufacturing Loss Services Gain WynBay LLEN Industry.Gov.Au
15 Australian Employment Changes Employment growth has been stronger in 550,000 higher skilled occupations, and for individuals with higher levels of education. As the transition towards a knowledge- 450,000 Health Care 462,000 jobs gained based service economy continues, it is reasonable to expect that these trends will continue. Concerns that the shift towards services may stifle productivity and output growth tend to over-simplify the issue. However, there is no doubt that the ever increasing employment share of the traditionally lowproductivity social service industries does pose some challenges to Australia s future growth potential. [Cully] Change in employment, to , , ,000 50,000-50, ,000 Employment growth Accommodation and Food Employment contraction Arts and Recreation Construction Retail Trade Agriculture 52,000 jobs lost Low income Education Other services Transport Utilities Real Estate Services Professional Services Public Administration Administration Services Wholesale Trade Information, Media and Telecommunication Services Manufacturing 92,000 jobs lost High income Mining Financial Services WynBay LLEN $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 Compensation per employee, Industry.Gov.Au
16 Job Polarisation Over the past four decades in Australia there has been a large shift in the skill composition of employment: The share of high-skill jobs has increased by a large amount; The share of middle skill jobs has fallen by almost as much; and There has been a small decrease in the share of low-skill jobs. At least for part of the period since the early 1970s, this pattern of changes fits what has come to be known internationally as job polarisation. WynBay LLEN Jeff Borland WhaleSongServices
17 Top 25 Australian Industries - REVENUE - February Top 25 Australian Industries in Revenue Revenue in $M Finance Agribusiness Superannuation National and Regional Commercial Banks Automotive Industry Franchising Consumer Goods Retail Professional Services Tourism Health Services Self-Managed Superannuation Funds Integrated Logistics Supermarkets and Grocery Stores Mortgages Retail Superannuation Funds Life Insurance Iron Ore Mining Industry Superannuation Funds General Hospitals Motor Vehicle Dealers General Insurance Heavy Industry and Other Non-Building IBIS World WhaleSongServices Electricity Retailing Road Freight Transport Computer System Design Services
18 Top 25 Australian Industries - GROWTH Top 25 Australian Industries by Growth Coal Seam Gas Extraction Car Sharing Providers Content Delivery Network Operators Oil and Gas Extraction Online Household Furniture Sales Online Book Sales Fibre Optic Cable Installation Online Baby Product Sales Uranium Mining Online Grocery Sales Online Sporting Apparel Diamond and Gemstone Mining Organic Cosmetics and Toiletries Distributors Online Shopping Mortgages Online Computer and Tablet Sales Online Small Electrical Online Travel Bookings Online Pet Food and Pet Supply Fast Fashion Organic Livestock and Poultry Farming Private Equity Online Kitchen and Diningware Sales Online Jewellery and Watch Sales Data Centres % Growth IBIS World WhaleSongServices
19 Bottom 25 Australian Industries - GROWTH Ethanol Fuel Production Wind Farm Construction Pipeline Construction Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Automotive Electrical Component Manufacturing Motor Vehicle Parts and Accessories Manufacturing Oil and Gas Field Services Video and DVD Hire Outlets Petroleum Refining and Petroleum Fuel Manufacturing Railway Track Construction Online CD, DVD and Blu-ray Sales Superannuation Funds Hydro-Electricity Generation Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing Petroleum Exploration Retail Superannuation Funds Fossil Fuel Electricity Generation Motor Vehicle New Parts Wholesaling Heavy Industry and Other Non-Building Construction Water and Waste Services Infrastructure Construction Copper, Silver, Lead and Zinc Smelting and Refining Synthetic and Natural Textile Manufacturing Men's and Boys' Wear Manufacturing Electricity Infrastructure Construction Computer and Electronic Office Equipment Manufacturing Aluminium Rolling, Drawing, Extruding % Growth IBIS World WhaleSongServices
20 WynBay LLEN Inc. Dallian D Cruz dallian@wynbayllen.org.au Data licensed through WhaleSong Services on behalf of LLENS from IBIS World
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