ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF THE RELATIVE POVERTY RATE IN ROMANIA DURING

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1 ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF THE RELATIVE POVERTY RATE IN ROMANIA DURING TOMESCU-DUMITRESCU CORNELIA Asoc. Prof. PhD, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, CONSTANTIN BRANCUSI UNIVERSITY Abstract According to the definition of the National Institute of Statistics, the relative poverty rate represents the proportion of the poor (according to the relative estimation method) in the total population. It is considered poor people in households with an adult-equivalent income (including or exclusive of own resource consumption) lower than the poverty threshold. This indicator is currently determined for the 60% threshold of the median of adultequivalent income. The indicator is sometimes referred to as "the risk of poverty". To analyze the dynamics of the relative poverty rate for the period considered, we used the statistical indicators of the chronological series, respectively the absolute, relative and average indicators. Keywords: relative poverty rate, statistical indicators, income, dynamics indices Classification JEL: M0,C1 1. INTRODUCTION According to specialists, the content of the concept of poverty concerns: lack of food (32%); lack of money (28%); lack of shelter (30%). The United Nations has set a number of priorities and created programs to reduce poverty and improve people's lives everywhere. Progress, however, depends on the degree of involvement of those who believe that the world can overcome one of the greatest challenges that it faces - poverty. Today, one in five people live in the world with less than one dollar a day, and one in seven suffers from chronic hunger. Living on the edge of the economy, the poor struggle for a regular income and can lose everything when a change occurs. Women and children are the most vulnerable. According to UN statistics of the 6 billion inhabitants of the planet, 1.5 are poor. Of these, around 1 billion are in developing countries, and around 500 million are in industrialized countries. There are about 40 million poor people in the US, and about 200 million poor people in Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Poor poverty is not just about revenue. Poverty also means lack of education, medical care and political influence, lack of person safety, adequate shelter, and sufficient food. More than 800 million people face hunger, over 200 million children do not go to school, and the spread of HIV / AIDS threatens social and medical systems all over the world. If poverty continues to be an uncontrolled phenomenon, the world can expect more humanity crises, more domestic violent conflicts, and a deterioration in living conditions for the poorest. 2. ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF THE RELATIVE POVERTY RATE IN ROMANIA DURING In the analyzed period, ie the timeframe, the relative poverty rate is presented in table no. 1. The graphical representation of the evolution of the total level of the relative poverty rate is shown in the chronograph in Figure 1. 12

2 Table no. 1. Relative poverty rate over No. Year Relative poverty rate (%) , , , , , , , ,4 Relative poverty rate ,6 23,6 22,1 21,6 22,3 22, ,1 25, Figure no. 1. Evolution of relative poverty rate From the chart above, one can observe the trend of increasing the relative poverty rate starting with 2010, the highest being registered in In table no. 2. the relative poverty rate is presented for years and age groups. Table no. 2. Relative poverty rate by age and age groups Year Age ,3 31,9 32, ,3 34,7 39,3 38, ,7 19,8 19,4 19,5 20,9 21,9 21,7 23,4 23,3 65 and more 29,4 26,5 21,4 17,6 14,8 14,4 14,5 15,7 19,3 Total 24,6 23,6 22,1 21,6 22,3 22, ,1 25,4 The dynamics of the relative poverty rate by age group in 2015 is shown in Figure no

3 Figure 2. Dynamics of relative poverty rate in 2015 Relative poverty rate , ,3 19, și peste The age group most affected by poverty is 0-17 years, the relative poverty rate being 38.1%, while the least affected by poverty are in the age group 65 and over, at a rate of of relative poverty of 19.3%. For years and regions, the relative poverty rate is shown in table no. 3. Table no. 3. Relative poverty rate by year and region Year Region Nord-Vest ,5 15,8 20,6 17,4 17,1 20,4 19,2 Centru 18,2 21,6 19,6 20,5 18, ,2 20,4 17,8 Nord-Est 36,6 33,4 31,1 30,8 32,1 31,7 34,5 36,1 35,9 Sud-Est 30,2 26,1 21,9 27,8 29,2 31,9 32, ,3 Sud- Muntenia 26,8 22,9 22,4 21,2 21,1 22,1 22,7 25,5 30,6 Bucureşti- Ilfov 8,9 5,6 6 3,4 3,5 2,6 4,1 4,8 5,9 Sud-Vest Oltenia 36,9 37,6 37,3 29,1 28,1 31,2 28,2 28,3 32,1 Vest 9,8 16,1 16,1 20,3 20,5 25,8 22,7 27,5 19,6 14

4 Figure 3. Distribution of the relative poverty rate by regions over the period From Figure 3 one can observe the considerable difference that exists between the Bucharest-Ilfov region and the other regions of the country through the relative poverty rate. In this region, very low relative poverty rates are recorded compared to other regions where the values are very high. The distribution of the relative poverty rate by region in 2015 is shown in Figure 4. Figure 4. Distribution of the relative poverty rate by regions in 2015 Of the eight regions of Romania, the least affected by poverty is the Bucharest-Ilfov region, with a relative poverty rate of 5.9%. At the opposite end, there is the North-East region with a poverty rate of 35.9%, followed by the South-East region with a poverty rate of 32.3%. 15

5 To analyze the dynamics of the relative poverty rate for the period considered, we used the statistical indicators of the chronological series, respectively the absolute, relative and average indicators. Absolute indicators computed with fixed and chain basis that characterize the dynamics of the relative poverty rate over the period are presented in table no. 4. Table no. 4. Absolute changes in relative poverty rate in the period Year Absolute changes Relative Poverty Ratio (%) with chain with fixed Δt / t-1 Dt / , , ,1-1,5-2, ,6-0, ,3 0,7-2, ,9 0,6-1, ,1-1, ,1 2,1 0, ,4 0,3 0,8 Data source: own calculations d on the data in table no. 1 From the table above we can see the following: - In the period , the relative poverty rate decreased compared to 2007, considered as the reference. The most significant decrease was registered in 2010 when the relative poverty rate decreased by 3% compared to 2007; - In the period , the relative poverty rate has declined from year to year. Since 2011, relative poverty has started to increase annually, with the largest increase in 2014 when relative poverty rose by 2.1% over In other words, poverty each year has affected more and more people in Romania since Regarding the relative indices of the relative poverty rate dynamics, we have calculated the dynamics indices, the dynamics dynamics and the absolute value of a percentage of the dynamics dynamics. The values of these indicators are shown in the table below. Year Table no. 5. Indicators of dynamics and rhythm of relative poverty rate dynamics,% Relative Poverty Ratio Dynamics Rhythms with chain I t/t-1 with fixed I t/1 Dynamics Rhythm with chain R t/t-1 (%) with fixed Rt/1 (%) , ,6 0,9593 0,9593 4,07 4, ,1 0,9364 0,8984 6,36 10, ,6 0,9774 0,8780 2,26 12, ,3 1,0324 0,9065 3,24 9, ,9 1,0269 0,9309 2,69 6, ,0043 0,9349 0,43 6,51 16

6 ,1 1,0913 1,0203 9,13 2, ,4 1,0119 1,0325 1,19 3,25 Data source: own calculations According to the values of the relative indicators of the dynamics calculated in table no. 5 it is found that the relative poverty rate: - decreased in 2008 compared to 2007 by times, ie decreased by 4.07%; - decreased in 2009 compared to 2007 by times, ie by 10.16%; - increased in the period , as compared to 2010, the highest increase being in the year 2015 of times, which represents an increase of 3.25%; - increased from year to year in , with the largest increase in 2014 compared to 2013, the increase being times, ie an increase of 9.13% and the lowest the growth being in 2013 compared to 2012, the increase being times, ie an increase of 0.43%. CONCLUSIONS In the period , the relative poverty rate decreased compared to 2007, considered as the reference. The most significant decrease was registered in 2010 when the relative poverty rate decreased by 3% compared to In the period , the relative poverty rate has declined from year to year. Since 2011, relative poverty has started to increase annually, with the largest increase in 2014 when relative poverty rose by 2.1% over In other words, poverty each year has affected more and more people in Romania since According to the values of the relative indicators of the dynamics it is found that the relative poverty rate: - decreased in 2008 compared to 2007 by times, ie decreased by 4.07%; - decreased in 2009 compared to 2007 by times, ie by 10.16%; - increased in the period , as compared to 2010, the highest increase being in the year 2015 of times, which represents an increase of 3.25%; - increased from year to year in the period , the largest increase being in 2014 compared to 2013, the increase being times, ie an increase of 9.13% and the lowest the growth being in 2013 compared to 2012, the increase being times, ie an increase of 0.43%. BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Aparaschivei, L., Andreica M.E., Cristescu, A., Cataniciu, N. (2011) The Romanian labour supply and demand: Analysis on sex and age sub-groups, International Journal of Mathematical Models And Methods In Applied Sciences, Issue 2, Volume 5 2. Andreica, M., Aparaschivei, L., Cristescu, A., Cataniciu, N. (2010), Models of the Minimum Wage Impact upon Employment, Wages and Prices: the Romanian Case, Recent Advances in Mathematics and Computers in Business, Economics, Biology and Chemistry, Proceedings of the 11th WSEAS Int. Conf. MCBE Antonie, M., D., Cristescu, A., Cataniciu, N., (2010), A Panel Data Analysis of the Connection between Employee Remuneration, Productivity and Minimum Wage in Romania, in Proc. of the 11th WSEAS Int. Conf. on Mathematics & Computers in Business & Economics, Iasi, Romania 4. Banca Centrală Europeană, (2015), Structural reforms across euro area, Economic Bulletin, 5. Banca Mondială, 2007, România: Raport de evaluare a sărăciei, faza I 17