Resilience Measurement in the Philippines. March 2015

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Resilience Measurement in the Philippines. March 2015"

Magnus Austin
5 years ago
Views:

1 Resilience Measurement in the Philippines March 2015

WHY FOCUS ON RESILIENCE» Theory of everything» By being all things, resilience risks being nothing new: Theory of everything» Untested assumptions» If

2 WHY FOCUS ON RESILIENCE» Theory of everything» By being all things, resilience risks being nothing new: Theory of everything» Untested assumptions» If we do not or cannot measure progress in achieving resilience the term will fail to provide a useful concept in informing improved policy and practice.

3 WHAT a set of capacities used in connection with shocks / stresses indexed to developme nt outcomes

4 HOW Characteristic approaches Outcomes-based analysis

5 CHARACTERISTIC APPROACHES Identify determinants of household and community-level resilience that can be assessed prior to shocks occurring and focuses on assetbased approaches as well as intangible processes and functions that support adaptive capacity.

IS THIS RESILIENCE? Outcome Indicators Baseline Endline 1. Adopted one drought resistant crop on > ¼ ha 0 1 2. Using micro-irrigation > 1/10 ha 0 1 3.

6 IS THIS RESILIENCE? Outcome Indicators Baseline Endline 1. Adopted one drought resistant crop on > ¼ ha Using micro-irrigation > 1/10 ha Used weather forecast to decide when/what to plant Family member in a savings group Current savings > $ Total resilience score 0 5 Shock/ stress Impact Indicator Household Hunger Scale (range 0-4; 4 = most food insecure) 4 1

7 OUTCOME-BASED ANALYSIS CAPACITIES Financial inclusion Income diversification Social capital SHOCK EXPOSURE Severity of typhoon damage OUTCOMES Food security Asset recovery

8 MERCY CORPS APPROACH 1. Identify key resilience capacities 2. Monitor and evaluate program contribution to resilience capacities 3. Test resilience capacities against shocks and stressors

9 TABANGKO- PHILIPPINES Typhoon Yolanda in November 2013 Unconditional cash transfer» 25,000 beneficiaries» Western and Eastern Leyte and Northern Cebu

10 PROGRAM THEORY OF CHANGE Activities Provision of Emergency Cash Assistance Financial Literacy and Promotion of Savings Behavior Intended Outcomes Prevention of productive asset shedding Reestablishment of livelihood assets and activities Increased use of bank accounts and other financial products Increased propensity to save Intended Impacts Increased livelihood resilience Increased recovery to pre-yolanda status

11 RESEARCH QUESTIONS Financial inclusion Does financial inclusion bolster household resilience to natural disasters? Which financial services are linked to more successful recovery? Livelihood diversification Does diversifying sources of income across economic sectors protect livelihoods from natural disasters? Social capital How does social capital contribute to disaster resilience and recovery? How does the contribution of informal sources compare to formal aid?

12 ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK CAPACITIES SHOCK EXPOSURE OUTCOMES Financial inclusion: Use of financial tools Financial literacy Income diversification: Number and independence of income sources Social capital: Assistance from other HHs Severity of typhoon damage Coping strategies index HH CONTROLS 2013 HH income, asset index, poverty likelihood (PPI), HH size, HH land ownership, education and literacy of financial decision maker Self-reported recovery from Yolanda Perceived ability to cope with future shocks

13 STRENGTHS Integrated into program M&E Retrospective baseline for pre-shock status Multivariate regression analysis

14 RESULTS Coping strategies index (Log) Reported recovery from Yolanda Perceived ability to cope with future shocks (Log) Perceived ability to cope with a major natural disaster Use of Savings, Formal 3.3% Use of Savings, Informal 1.9% % 3.13 Use of Loans, Formal 7.4% 1.70 Use of Loans, Informal % Having a Bank Account Use of Insurance, any -4.9% 0.73 Diverse Income Sources -2.4% -9.5% Accessed Community Support -3.8% 2.08 Received Aid from Phil. Gov t 3.9% 13.6% Received Aid from INGO(s) Total 2013 Income (Log) 1.9% %

15 KEY FINDINGS Financial inclusion Having savings or access to credit aided in recovery Informal financial tools were as effective as formal ones Livelihood diversification Having diverse income sources did not contribute to greater resilience Social capital Informal support from neighbors was linked to higher use of distressful coping strategies, but also to higher perceived future ability to cope

16 USES Internal Findings informing our program theories re financial inclusion and resilience Refining and applying research methodology in other contexts External Influencing cash in emergencies field, and livelihoods resilience community Furthering Mercy Corps thought leadership on evidence-based resilience programming

17 Do Financial Services Build Disaster Resilience? Examining the Determinants of Recovery from Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines Ninette Adhikari

The Impact of Social Capital on Managing Shocks to Achieve Resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Niger and Burkina Faso

The Impact of Social Capital on Managing Shocks to Achieve Resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Niger and Burkina Faso Tim Frankenberger TANGO International January 5, 2016 10:00 11:30 AM