HOW MUCH the cheap gas for households has actually cost. naftogaz.com

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1 HOW MUCH the cheap gas for households has actually cost naftogaz.com

2 Cheap gas for households is corruption A cause of inefficiencies, poverty and dependence on Russian gas The cheap gas for households has cost Ukraine almost $60bn of spending and forgone revenue over the past 10 years State gas producers were administratively forced to sell their gas at depressed prices, leading to underinvested national upstream and dangerous dependence on Russian gas The government had to borrow to cover the deficit instead of receiving extra tax revenues from gas producers Perceived affordability of gas led to inefficient use of energy by households Ukraine lags behind its neighbors in modernizing its residential sector: the state lacked resources and consumers had no economic motivation to invest in energy efficiency Wealthier households consumed more gas on average hence the affluent received more benefits from the state via discounted gas

3 Cost of gas for households (incl. gas used in centralized heat production for households) , $bn difference not paid for Ukrainian gas paid for Ukrainian gas paid for imported gas 3, ,6 5, , , , ,9 10, , , , *volume of Ukrainian gas used for needs of households multiplied by the difference between the weighted-average price of imported gas and the price paid by Naftogaz for Ukrainian gas. Naftogaz challenges in SCC the price of gas imported from Russia in TOTAL

4 Who covered the cost of gas used for needs of households in , $bn 64, ,5 Gas cost paid by Naftogaz Hidden $33.4bn Monetary $20.2bn Covered by consumers Total $53.6bn Gas cost Sources of funding Not paid for Ukrainian gas Paid for Ukrainian gas Paid for imported gas Compensations for DHCs Direct to households Paid by households Not received by UA gas producers Taxes not received by UA budget Compensations and losses of Naftogaz

5 Losses caused by cheap gas policy are more than Naftogaz deficit State budget spending to cover and compensations: $20bn Additional state budget losses (forgone royalties): nearly $5bn Losses of state-owned gas producers: nearly $29bn Additional losses of Naftogaz (debt servicing costs): nearly $5bn Total losses of almost $60bn over 10 years

6 Gas price adjustment in 2015: effect 1 Less consumption, less imports Reduction in consumption of gas for needs of households (estimate), bcm ATO, Crimea Weather, norms Saving Actual actual 2015 without price adjustment 2015 actual

7 Gas price adjustment in 2015: effect 2 Less state budget spending (reduction in ), $bn Total 5.3 $2.3bn hidden $1.8bn hidden 5, ,8 3,3 3.3 monetary Actual 2015 savings: $1.2bn total $2.7bn monetary $2.0bn monetary incl. $0.7bn monetary without без price підняття adjustment цін факт 2015 ринкові market actual rates ціни Direct to households Paid by households Compensations and losses of NAK Compensations for DHCs Not received by UA gas producers Taxes not received by UA budget

8 Price adjustment in 2015: effect 3 More state budget revenues (more taxes) Taxes paid by Naftogaz and Ukrgazvydobyvannya (UGV), $bn 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, без without підняття price adjustment цін факт actual ринкові market ціни rates УГВ UGV Нафтогаз Naftogaz

9 Gas price adjustment in 2015 Net effect on state budget State budget tax revenues from Naftogaz and UGV less monetary and compensations related to gas for households, $bn ,6 0,0-0,6-1,2-1,8-2, without без price підняття adjustment цін факт ринкові market actual ціни rates Conservative assumption: >75% of households are covered by direct

10 Benefits from cheap gas for the average УП Assumptions Heated area, sqm 90 Number of residents 4 Gas consumption norms Heating, cubic m/sqm 3,6 Cooking and heating water, cubic m/resident Estimated gas volume consumed per year, cubic m *Granted to both wealthy and poor households **Granted only to poor households 0 Paid by the consumer Gas spending per year, UAH Роздрібні ціни 2015 without травня price adjustment 2014 р. Роздрібні ціни 2015 квітня actual 2015 р. State support in the form of discounted gas* Ринкові 2015 market роздрібні rates ціни OLX.ua State support in the form of direct **

11 Benefits from cheap gas for the wealthy УП Assumptions Heated area, sqm 588 Number of residents 6 Gas consumption norms Heating, cubic m/1 sqm 7 Cooking and heating water, cubic m/1 resident Estimated gas volume consumed per year, cubic m Gas spending per year, UAH Роздрібні 2015 without ціни Роздрібні 2015 ціни 2015 Ринкові market травня квітня роздрібні price adjustment actual rates 2014 р р. ціни State support in the form of discounted gas Paid by the consumer

12 The wealthy benefit more from cheap gas The more gas used the more benefit received from the state budget UAH per year Benefit in the form of cheap gas Benefit in the form of direct UAH per year UAH 0 per year UAH per year Before adjustment of prices in 2015 Target state (market prices, direct )