MRG$MI$Poll$Fall$2016$ October$16519,$2016$ 600$Likely$Michigan$Voters$ $SMOE$±4.1$ 30$Percent$Cell$Phone$ $!!!!! 1.!!GEOCODE!!!

Transcription

1 MRG$MI$Poll$Fall$$ October$,$$ $Likely$Michigan$Voters$ $SMOE$±.$ $Percent$Cell$Phone$ $.GEOCODE Cityof... ofwayne... Oakland...% Macomb... ofsmsa... MidCMI...% WestMI... TriCCities/Thumb... NorthLowerMI... UP....ADI Saginaw/Flint/BayCity... GR/KZOO/West... Cad/TC/Soo... MidMI/Lansing... Metro... Misc/UP....Areyoucurrentlyregisteredtovote[LANDLINE:atthisaddress[CELL:in (Michigan)? Registered... Notregistered...C Notsure...C

2 .InMichigan,teachersreceivearetirementpensionasnegotiatedbytheirunions, andguaranteedbythestate.thepensionfundhasbeenunderfundedforyears, havingonlypercentofthemoneyitneedstomeetcurrentandfuturepension obligations.schoolsarenowpayingnearlypercentofalltheirschoolpayroll coststocatchup. Somepeopleareproposingtransitioningtheteacherpensionsystemtoadefined contributionsystem,likea(k),fornewteachers.currentteacherandretiree pensionswouldbehonoredwithouttheneedforanyfutureemergencybailouts. Whilea(K)doesnotguaranteeacertainretirementpayoutlikeapension,new teacherswillhaveflexibilityandnothavetoworkforyearsinorderto"vestinthe system",anditwillpreventunderfundingandpossiblepensioncuts. Whatdoyouthink?Wouldyoufavororopposetransitioningthecurrentteacher pensionprogramtoadefinedcontributionplan,likea(k)fornewlyhired teachers?[ifsupport/oppose,ask:]wouldthatbestrongly(support/ oppose)orjustsomewhat(support/oppose)? Stronglysupport... Somewhatsupport... Neithersupport/oppose...% Somewhatoppose... Stronglyoppose... Don'tknow... Refused...% TOTALSUPPORT... TOTALOPPOSE....Aswiththeteacherpensionfund,manyofMichigan'scities,countiesandlocal governmentshaveunderfundedemployeepensionfunds,includingthoseforpolice andfire.theseunderfundedpensionsystemsmeanlocalgovernmentsmustdivert currenttaxmoneyawayfromgovernmentservicesinordertopaypension obligations.thiscontributestofinancialcriseslikethoseinandflint.some peopleareproposingtransitioninglocalgovernmentemployeepensionsystemstoa definedcontributionsystem,likea(k)fornewlyhiredemployees,asthestateof Michigandidfornewhiresaboutyearsago. Wouldyoufavororopposetransitioningthecurrentlocalgovernmentpension programstoadefinedcontributionplan,likea(k)fornewlyhiredemployees?[if SUPPORT/OPPOSE,ASK:]Wouldthatbestrongly(support/oppose)orjust somewhat(support/oppose)? Stronglysupport... Somewhatsupport... Neithersupport/oppose...% Somewhatoppose... Stronglyoppose... Don'tknow... Refused...% TOTALSUPPORT... TOTALOPPOSE...

3 .First,mayIaskhowoldyouwereonyourlastbirthday? C...% C... C...% C... C... C... C... C... C... C Refused....Whatisyourmainracialorethnicgroup? Caucasian/White... AfricanAmerican/Black... Hispanic... Asian... Biracial/multiCracial... Other...% Refused...

4 .Generallyspeaking,doyouthinkofyourselfas(ROTATE:aublican,aocrat)an ependentorwhat?(ifdemocratorrepublican,ask:)wouldyoucallyourselfastrong (ocrat/ublican)ornotaverystrong(ocrat/ublican)?(ifnotsure,codeasnot VERYSTRONGDEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.)(IFINDEPENDENT,ASK:)Well,doyouconsider yourselfclosertothe[rotate]ublicansortheocrats. Strongocrat... Notverystrongocrat... ependent/leanocrat...% ependent...% ependent/leanublican... Strongublican... Other(VOL)...% Notsure...% Refused... TOTALDEMOCRAT...% TOTALINDEPENDENT...% TOTALREPUBLICAN....Alotofpeopleareunabletogetandvoteformanyreasons.Didyouhappento voteinthenovemberelectionforpresident?(ifyes,ask:)forwhomdidyou voteccbarackobama,mittromney,orsomeoneelse? BarackObama... MittRomney... Someoneelse... Didnotvote... Notsure... Refused....Whatisthelastgradethatyoucompletedinschool?(DONOTREADCHOICES) Gradeschool... Somehighschool... Highschoolgraduate...% Somecollege,nodegree... Vocationaltraining/School... Cyearcollegedegree... Cyearcollege/bachelor'sdegree... Somepostgraduatework,nodegree... Cyears postgraduatework/master'sdegree...% Doctoral/lawdegree... Notsure/refused...%.Areyouorisanyoneinyourhouseholdamemberofalabororteacher'sunion? Yes,respondent... Yes,someoneelse... Both... No... Refused...% UNIONHOUSEHOLD... NONCUNIONHOUSEHOLD...

5 .GENDER Male... Female...PHONE Cell... Landline..

6 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: In Michigan, teachers receive a retirement pension as negotiated by their unions, and guaranteed by the state. The pension fund has been underfunded for years, having only percent of the money it needs to meet current and future pension obligations. Schools are now paying nearly percent of all their school payroll costs to catch up. Some people are proposing transitioning the teacher pension system to a defined contribution system, like a (k), for new teachers. Current teacher and retiree pensions would be honored without the need for any future emergency bailouts. While a (K) does not guarantee a certain retirement payout like a pension, new teachers will have flexibility and not have to work for years in order to "vest in the system", and it will prevent underfunding and possible pension cuts. What do you think? Would you favor or oppose transitioning the current teacher pension program to a defined contribution plan, like a (K) for newly hired teachers? [IF SUPPORT / OPPOSE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (support / oppose) or just somewhat (support / oppose)? Base ADI Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP GEOCODE City of of Wayne Oakland % Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI % West MI Tri- Cities/Th North umb Lower MI UP Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support / oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know Refused % TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

7 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: In Michigan, teachers receive a retirement pension as negotiated by their unions, and guaranteed by the state. The pension fund has been underfunded for years, having only percent of the money it needs to meet current and future pension obligations. Schools are now paying nearly percent of all their school payroll costs to catch up. Some people are proposing transitioning the teacher pension system to a defined contribution system, like a (k), for new teachers. Current teacher and retiree pensions would be honored without the need for any future emergency bailouts. While a (K) does not guarantee a certain retirement payout like a pension, new teachers will have flexibility and not have to work for years in order to "vest in the system", and it will prevent underfunding and possible pension cuts. What do you think? Would you favor or oppose transitioning the current teacher pension program to a defined contribution plan, like a (K) for newly hired teachers? [IF SUPPORT / OPPOSE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (support / oppose) or just somewhat (support / oppose)? Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support / oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know Refused % TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

8 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: In Michigan, teachers receive a retirement pension as negotiated by their unions, and guaranteed by the state. The pension fund has been underfunded for years, having only percent of the money it needs to meet current and future pension obligations. Schools are now paying nearly percent of all their school payroll costs to catch up. Some people are proposing transitioning the teacher pension system to a defined contribution system, like a (k), for new teachers. Current teacher and retiree pensions would be honored without the need for any future emergency bailouts. While a (K) does not guarantee a certain retirement payout like a pension, new teachers will have flexibility and not have to work for years in order to "vest in the system", and it will prevent underfunding and possible pension cuts. What do you think? Would you favor or oppose transitioning the current teacher pension program to a defined contribution plan, like a (K) for newly hired teachers? [IF SUPPORT / OPPOSE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (support / oppose) or just somewhat (support / oppose)? Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support / oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know Refused % TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

9 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: As with the teacher pension fund, many of Michigan's cities, counties and local governments have underfunded employee pension funds, including those for police and fire. These underfunded pension systems mean local governments must divert current tax money away from government services in order to pay pension obligations. This contributes to financial crises like those in and Flint. Some people are proposing transitioning local government employee pension systems to a defined contribution system, like a (K) for newly hired employees, as the State of Michigan did for new hires about years ago. Would you favor or oppose transitiong the current local government pension programs to a defined contribution plan, likea (K) for newly hired employees? [IF SUPPORT / OPPOSE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (support / oppose) or just somewhat (support / oppose)? Base ADI Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP GEOCODE City of of Wayne Oakland % Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI % West MI Tri- Cities/Th North umb Lower MI UP Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support / oppose % Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know Refused % TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

10 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: As with the teacher pension fund, many of Michigan's cities, counties and local governments have underfunded employee pension funds, including those for police and fire. These underfunded pension systems mean local governments must divert current tax money away from government services in order to pay pension obligations. This contributes to financial crises like those in and Flint. Some people are proposing transitioning local government employee pension systems to a defined contribution system, like a (K) for newly hired employees, as the State of Michigan did for new hires about years ago. Would you favor or oppose transitiong the current local government pension programs to a defined contribution plan, likea (K) for newly hired employees? [IF SUPPORT / OPPOSE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (support / oppose) or just somewhat (support / oppose)? Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support / oppose % Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know Refused % TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

11 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: As with the teacher pension fund, many of Michigan's cities, counties and local governments have underfunded employee pension funds, including those for police and fire. These underfunded pension systems mean local governments must divert current tax money away from government services in order to pay pension obligations. This contributes to financial crises like those in and Flint. Some people are proposing transitioning local government employee pension systems to a defined contribution system, like a (K) for newly hired employees, as the State of Michigan did for new hires about years ago. Would you favor or oppose transitiong the current local government pension programs to a defined contribution plan, likea (K) for newly hired employees? [IF SUPPORT / OPPOSE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (support / oppose) or just somewhat (support / oppose)? Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Strongly support Somewhat support Neither support / oppose % Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know Refused % TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

12 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: First, may I ask how old you were on your last birthday? ADI GEOCODE Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP City of of Wayne Oakland Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI West MI Tri- Cities/Th umb North Lower MI UP Base % % - % % % % - % % % - % % - % % % - % - % - % % % % % - % % % % % % - - % + % % % % Refused % % % - % % - % % - % + % %

13 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: First, may I ask how old you were on your last birthday? Party ID Party ID by Gender GENDER ocra t epen dent ublic an Male Female Base % % % - % % - % % - % % % % - % - % - % % - % - % % % - % % % - + % Refused % % % % % - % % % - % % % - % % + % %

14 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: First, may I ask how old you were on your last birthday? Age Race Education Union Household Caucasi an/white African America n/black High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Yes No Base % % - % % - % - % % % - % - - % % % - % - % % % - % % - % % + Refused % % % - % % - - % + %

15 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: What is your main racial or ethnic group? ADI GEOCODE Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP City of of Wayne Oakland Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI West MI Tri- Cities/Th umb North Lower MI UP Base % % Caucasian/White African American/Black % % % % % Hispanic % % Asian % Biracial/multiracial % % Other % % % Refused % % % %

16 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: What is your main racial or ethnic group? Party ID Party ID by Gender GENDER ocra t epen dent ublic an Male Female Base % % % Caucasian/White African American/Black % % % % % Hispanic % % % Asian % % % % % % Biracial/multiracial % % % % Other % % % % % Refused % % %

17 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: What is your main racial or ethnic group? Age Race Education Union Household Caucasi an/white African America n/black High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Yes No Base % % Caucasian/White African American/Black % % % % % % % Hispanic % Asian % % % % % % Biracial/multiracial % % Other % % % % % Refused % %

18 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE: a ublican, a ocrat) an ependent or what? (IF DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN, ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (ocrat/ublican) or not a very strong (ocrat/ublican)? (IF NOT SURE, CODE AS NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.) (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK:) Well, do you consider yourself closer to the [ROTATE] ublicans or the ocrats. Base ADI Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP GEOCODE City of of Wayne Oakland % Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI % West MI Tri- Cities/Th North umb Lower MI UP Strong ocrat Not very strong ocrat ependent/ lean ocrat % ependent % ependent/lean ublican Strong ublican Other (VOL) % Not sure % Refused REPUBLICAN INDEPENDENT % DEMOCRAT % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

19 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE: a ublican, a ocrat) an ependent or what? (IF DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN, ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (ocrat/ublican) or not a very strong (ocrat/ublican)? (IF NOT SURE, CODE AS NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.) (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK:) Well, do you consider yourself closer to the [ROTATE] ublicans or the ocrats. Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Strong ocrat Not very strong ocrat ependent/ lean ocrat % ependent % ependent/lean ublican Strong ublican Other (VOL) % Not sure % Refused REPUBLICAN INDEPENDENT % DEMOCRAT % % % % % % % % % % %

20 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE: a ublican, a ocrat) an ependent or what? (IF DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN, ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (ocrat/ublican) or not a very strong (ocrat/ublican)? (IF NOT SURE, CODE AS NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.) (IF INDEPENDENT, ASK:) Well, do you consider yourself closer to the [ROTATE] ublicans or the ocrats. Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Strong ocrat Not very strong ocrat ependent/ lean ocrat % ependent % ependent/lean ublican Strong ublican Other (VOL) % Not sure % Refused REPUBLICAN INDEPENDENT % DEMOCRAT % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

21 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: A lot of people are unable to get and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote--barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? Base ADI Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP GEOCODE City of of Wayne Oakland % Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI % West MI Tri- Cities/Th North umb Lower MI UP Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else Did not vote Not sure Refused % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

22 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: A lot of people are unable to get and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote--barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else Did not vote Not sure Refused % % % % % % % % % %

23 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: A lot of people are unable to get and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote--barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else? Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Barack Obama Mitt Romney Someone else Did not vote Not sure Refused % % % % % % % % % % %

24 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES) ADI GEOCODE Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP City of of Wayne Oakland Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI West MI Tri- Cities/Th umb North Lower MI UP Base % % Grade school % % Some high school % % High school graduate % % Some college, no degree % % % Vocational training/school % % % % -year college degree % % % % -year college/bachelor's degree % % Some postgraduate work, no degree % % - years postgraduate work/master's degree % % Doctoral/law degree % % % % Not sure/refused % % % % % %

25 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES) Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Grade school Some high school High school graduate % Some college, no degree Vocational training/school -year college degree -year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree - years postgraduate work/master's degree % Doctoral/law degree Not sure/refused % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

26 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES) Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Grade school Some high school High school graduate % Some college, no degree Vocational training/school -year college degree -year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree - years postgraduate work/master's degree % Doctoral/law degree Not sure/refused % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

27 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor or teacher's union? Base ADI Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP GEOCODE City of of Wayne Oakland % Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI % West MI Tri- Cities/Th North umb Lower MI UP Yes, respondent Yes, someone else Both No Refused % UNION % NONUNION % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

28 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor or teacher's union? Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Yes, respondent Yes, someone else Both No Refused % UNION % NONUNION % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

29 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor or teacher's union? Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Yes, respondent Yes, someone else Both No Refused % UNION % NONUNION % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

30 MRG MI Poll Fall Table a: GENDER ADI GEOCODE Saginaw/ Flint/Bay City GR/KZO O/West Cad/TC/ Soo Mid MI/Lansi ng Metro Misc/UP City of of Wayne Oakland Macomb of SMSA Mid-MI West MI Tri- Cities/Th umb North Lower MI UP Base % % Male % Female

31 MRG MI Poll Fall Table b: GENDER Base Party ID ocra t % epen dent % ublic an Party ID by Gender % GENDER Male Female Male Female

32 MRG MI Poll Fall Table c: GENDER Base Age % + Race Caucasi an/white African America n/black % Education High School or Less Some / Training For Year Degree > Years Union Household Yes No Male Female