ENVISIONING THE SOCIETY OF TOMORROW - Pathways to prosperity Cecilie Hultmann

Transcription

1 ENVISIONING THE SOCIETY OF TOMORROW - Pathways to prosperity Cecilie Hultmann SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

2 DNV GL purpose and vision Purpose To safeguard life, property and the environment Vision Global impact for a safe and sustainable future 2

3 Global reach local competence ,000 years offices countries employees 3

4 Only by connecting the details can we impact the bigger picture We verify, certify and test against regulatory requirements, rules, standards and recommended practices We classify, certify, verify and test against regulatory requirements, rules, standards and recommended practices We develop new standards and recommended practices We develop new standards and recommended practices We qualify new technologies and operational concepts We qualify new technologies and operational concepts We give expert advice to enhance sustainable business performance We give expert advice to enhance sustainable business performance 4 4

5 Engaging a diverse group of people and perspectives 5

6 A safe and sustainable future: Enabling the transition (April 2014) CHAPTER 1: CHAPTER 2: CHAPTER 3: CHAPTER 4: CHAPTER 5: BUSINESS AS USUAL OUTLOOK: THE WORLD IN 2050 OUR VISION FOR A BARRIERS BLOCKING SAFE AND SUSTAINABLE THE TRANSITION FUTURE (2050) CHANGING COURSE: PATHWAYS FOR CHANGE SECTOR SPOTLIGHTS SHIPPING OIL & GAS ELECTRICITY FOOD & BEVERAGE HEALTHCARE 6

7 The world in 2050: Wilder weather 7

8 The world in 2050: Flooding 65 % of mega-cities, home to 10 % of the world s population, are at risk from sea level rise 8

9 The world in 2050: Massive loss of biodiversity 5 out of 10 mn species extinct by the end of this century 9

10 The world in 2050: Rising pollution levels 6 million number of deaths every year from air pollution 10

11 The world in 2050: A growing population 9 billion Starting to feel the pressures from a deteriorating environment 11

12 The world in 2050: Severe freshwater shortages 52 % 45 % Of the global population live in areas affected by water scarcity Of global GDP affected by water shortages 12

13 The world in 2050: Mass migration 1 billion People are forced to migrate due to climatic changes and sea level rise 13

14 The world in 2050: Widespread social unrest 14

15 The world in 2050: More frequent eruption of conflict 15

16 The world in 2050: Stagnating growth 16

17 The world in 2050: Rising costs 5-20 % of GDP The long term cost associated with climate change, per year. 17

18 The world in 2050: Deepening inequalities 18

19 The world in 2050: Deteriorating safety 19

20 The World in 2050: A Planet under Pressure 20

21 Changing course 21

22 1. Enabling large-scale systems-change The true cost of economic activities is borne by the public. Companies are making private profits, the public is making losses. We have to fix that problem by accounting for externalities which means making companies disclose their externalities, measure them, manage them and report them to the public. Pavan Sukhdev Founder and CEO Gist Advisory 22

23 2. Changing mindsets Society has to take decisions. If they are informed by science, we might take the right decisions. If they re not informed by science, we will certainly take the wrong decisions. John Ashton, Independent commentator and advisor on the politics of climate change 23

24 The solutions are there: Planet solar 24

25 Viking lady: the worlds most environmentally friendly ship 25

26 Power matching city 26

27 Intelligent streetlights: Reduce energy consumption by 80% 27

28 ifixit: A global community of people helping to fix things 28

29 Liter of light: Bottling the power of the sun 29

30 A well-known, highly respected Norwegian CEO once said: I read the IPCC s third report. And what happened? I changed my mind. And I put my money into renewables. May

31 3. Develop long-term visions and strategies In truth, most people are not willing to make a sacrifice today to get an uncertain benefit for their children or grandchildren years in the future. That underlies inaction in parliaments, the market and at the individual level. Jørgen Randers Norwegian business school 31

32 The world we want in 2050: A safe and sustainable future DNV GL believes it is possible to create a thriving economy where growth is decoupled from environmental destruction and material consumption. We believe it is possible to stay within the limits of the planet while still enjoying a decent quality of life. And we believe it is possible for a society of nine billion people to live well, enjoy universal access to the basics needed to live a healthy, safe and flourishing life. 32

33 The world we want: Goals and targets (snapshot) 1.5 C 0 net 35mn tonnes 70% 0% 100% temperature increase Deforestation Nitrogen removed from the atmosphere Increase in food production Child and maternal mortality SDGs achieved by ppm 4000km % IIRC True CO2 concentration Annual freshwater use Ozone concentration (Dobson units) Access to safe drinking water Mandatory reporting Costing and valuation 0 net 15% 0% 0% Beyond GDP 0% Biodiversity loss Land converted to cropland Extreme poverty Child and forced labour A new measure of prosperity Harmful subsidies 33

34 Hamburg, 13 May Strategic themes launched to 1300 colleagues and counting Høvik, 2 April Arnhem, 7 May PHOTO 34

35 Over 250 six-word vision stories collected 35

36 Future Sustainability Leaders competition 36

37 The journey of change: a golden opportunity The thing about change is that it s made up of millions of different actions. Change happens when enough things come together for that to manifest. So the important thing about change is not to focus on one thing but rather on the multitude, which makes everyone important in creating a transformation. Jo Confino, Editor, Guardian Sustainable Business 37

38 Six-themes for the future 38

39 For more information on our six themes for the future, join us at: Cecilie Hultmann SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 39