Employment Land Review Update North Hertfordshire District Council

Transcription

1 Employment Land Review Update 2011 North Hertfordshire District Council March 2011

2 Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 2

3 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Prospective North Hertfordshire population, dwellings and employment Accommodating North Hertfordshire employment growth Prospective Stevenage population and employment growth and its accommodation Possible Junction 7 development impacts on North Hertfordshire employment sites Implications of an older workforce Conclusions Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 3

4 1. Introduction This report updates certain estimates and projections made in previous Employment Land studies for North Hertfordshire, in particular seeking to identify levels of employment, and thus a measure for estimating employment land needs, over the period The requirement for further analysis has been sharpened by the proposed revocation of the regional plan, which will remove the previous framework for housing targets. The starting point is a range of options for additional dwelling provision for Options for appraisal testing Five options for additional housing in the District over have been identified, from which a Preferred Option would be presented as part of public consultation planned for February/March These are: 6,000 dwellings Nil net migration (Option 1) 8,000 dwellings Continued trends excluding Great Ashby (Option 2) 10,000 dwellings Continued trends including Great Ashby (Option 3) 12,000 dwellings Intermediate housing option (Option 4) 15,800 dwellings RSS Plan Option 1 (Option 5) Subsequently, Council officers identified a working figure of 7,000 additional dwellings which might be agreed as District policy - over this period. This figure is considered later in the report. With the exception of the 12,000 dwellings option (selected as an intermediate alternative) other options have been based on calculations made in the District Housing Paper Defining the housing requirement. 1 That report identified 7 options in all, including a brownfield land development option (2,300 dwellings) and a normal migration option (15,200 dwellings) which have been excluded from the list. Some options include dwellings physically located in North Herts but arising as part of Stevenage expansion. Of the 7, the brownfield option is not very realistic. It provides for less than the nil net migration population, hence implying that part of the District s natural increase would be denied the possibility of living there encouraging existing households to move out. The normal migration option is perhaps more realistic but can be proxied by the very similar Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) Option 1. The Brief for the study requests the following to be examined: 1 North Hertfordshire : Defining the housing requirement, NHDC Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 4

5 (1) The appropriate level of or estimate for employment related to each option, taking account of alternative supply/demand based approaches. (2) The impact of inclusion of a major site at Junction 7 of the A1(M), e.g. contextual appraisal of certain employment land allocations potentially affected. (3) Implications of an older population. (4) Implications of out-commuting. The last of these matters - net commuting has major implications for estimates of North Herts-located employment, and employment land required, in view of its scale. It means in practice that conventional methods of estimating such requirements are very problematic. In particular, identifying a best estimate for future employment, as opposed to just calculating the mechanical balance between housing/population and employment, involves making a number of judgements about the ultimate influences upon residents and workforce behaviour. The approach adopted The critical matters for this appraisal are the estimation of prospective employment growth for North Hertfordshire and Stevenage respectively - taking account of various dwellings increase scenarios and following this an assessment of how the employment growth in each District might be accommodated. After this work it is easier to consider possible impact of A1(M) Junction 7 development upon other North Herts employment sites, while the question of an older population is considered separately. Additionally, since commuting has such a strong bearing on employment levels in North Hertfordshire it is considered along with employment. Hence breaking down and re-arranging somewhat the tasks of the Brief set out above, the technical report has five parts: Prospective North Hertfordshire employment to 2031, relating this to alternative dwellings options. Accommodating prospective employment/floorspace growth in North Hertfordshire, with alternative commuting assumptions. Prospective Stevenage employment to 2031, and its accommodation, relating this to target ( aspirational ) and alternative population and employment growth options. Impact of potential J7 development on North Herts employment sites. Implications of an older North Herts population. Since this is a limited update it is not possible to get into a lot of detail for some of this analysis, hence a number of short cuts and assumptions have had to be made. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 5

6 2. Prospective North Hertfordshire population, dwellings and employment Approach The approach to estimating population and employment balance is iterative, first placing the options in the context of other baseline or mainstream projections. This is asking the question, if these reflect well established trends, is there some presumption of continuity? Second, since the level of commuting is indicative of a strong residential attachment in the District thousands are happy to commute from their North Hertfordshire homes is it reasonable to take account of housing supply (rather than local employment and the availability of employment land) as a leading influence on population level? Third, it is considered simplest if estimates are made in the first instance without any Stevenage impact, with that calculated subsequently. EEFM and ONS projections It is useful to set the dwellings increment options in the context of other recent projections available, such as those recently prepared by the East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM). In doing this it is noted that the parameters in that model s projections appear to be at variance with some of those adopted in the NHDC paper Defining the housing requirement, op cit. The EEFM projection available at the time of this report is only the baseline projection, since updates of three other scenarios originally prepared for EEDA have not been developed as formal projections. The model generates estimates for employment, households, population and dwellings as an integrated projection, implying that the variables are mutually consistent. Key variables projected for the period to 2031 are set out in Table 2.1 below, including EEFM estimates for net commuting. Table 2.1 North Hertfordshire employment, population, households and dwellings EEFM baseline projection Autumn 2010 ( 000) Variable Change Employment (1) Population Households Dwellings Jobs/population Jobs/dwelling Pop/dwelling Pop/household Net commuting Source: EEFM November projections. (1) Total workplace employed people (excludes double jobs). The baseline projections are usually described as demand based, implying that sufficient housing will be provided to support the projected employment. This is not necessarily a constraint, given that a large proportion of employment is household related including self employment, but at the same time it is not a specifically dwelling based projection, as has been Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 6

7 prepared for the RSS Review in the past. That said, the authors describe the baseline projection as: Oxford Economics best estimate of future regional economic trends on the basis of the most recently available data on a range of key variables, and taking into account local intelligence on industry sectors at sub-regional level. As set out in Table 2.1, the EEFM baseline projects an increase of 10,700 dwellings over the period. This is close to the mid-point of these options but, it needs to be noted, is strictly related to North Hertfordshire, not allowing for Stevenage generated dwellings. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) prepares trend estimates of population change which may also be regarded as baseline projections, although they have no direct reference to employment levels. The NHDC paper generates estimates of potential dwellings requirements of 15,200 from these as follows: Population ( 000) Households/dwellings ( 000) * * 1,132 constructed , according to NHDC paper. However, applying the EEFM dwellings: population ratios to ONS population projections (but using the NHDC dwelling build figure for ) a lower estimate of dwellings increase arises, put at 11,300, as follows: Population ( 000) Dwellings ( 000) * * 1,132 constructed , according to NHDC paper. EEFM 2011 dwellings figure is This assessment is preferred since the EEFM parameters relating to the relationships between variables have been carefully worked out as part of the integrated model, so should be robust. 2 The EEFM ratios of jobs to housing/household and population can be deployed to estimate corresponding employment and population for each of the 5 housing options. This would nominally be linked to the population and employment levels set out in Table 2.2 (ignoring any Stevenage impact). 2 The variation between NHDC and EEFM based estimates of dwellings increase scenarios arises from the use of significantly decreasing average household size assumptions to 2031; however these (2006 based) estimates may be revised upwards, particularly in the light of the slowdown in house construction. See also reference to higher 2009 based household size projections for Hertfordshire in Stevenage paper, footnote10. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 7

8 Table 2.2 Inferred 2031 population and employment increments for NHDC housing options (with EEFM baseline for comparison) 3 Housing option increase Population Employment + 6,000 +7, , ,000 +1, , ,400 +3, , ,800 +4, , ,100 +7, ,700 (1) +17,900 +3,600 Source: Consultants. (1) EEFM baseline projection, Table 2.1.Note that employment is people employed, not total jobs, which count one person doing 2 part time jobs as 2 jobs, hence as a real measure of persons employed is misleading. East of England Plan projection Before the intention to revoke the East of England Plan a draft revision was prepared in March 2010 which included indicative targets for employment change For North Hertfordshire the figure was +9,000 jobs, a level far higher than the baseline EEFM employment projection described above. RSS employment targets are set out in Policy E1: Job Growth, and the text states that local development documents should provide an enabling context to achieve these targets. However, the policy accepts that these are reference values and in North Herts case the target is much greater than the baseline projection. The consultants judgement is that this is very improbable, seemingly implying a reversal of commuting patterns with a much greater degree of self-containment than existing or projected. 5 This may be a desirable aspiration in sustainability terms but there is no evidential justification as to how this might materialise. Trend projections dwellings The NHDC paper, op cit, also considered the dwellings increment that would arise from maintaining completions at historic build rates. An average of 563 dwellings per year were constructed between 2001 and 2010, hence equivalent to 11,253 dwellings over the 20 year period , or rounded, 11,300. These included, however, the Stevenage -related construction effort at Great Ashby, and without that the annual build rate in the rest of North Herts was only 383, equivalent to 7,660 dwellings over , or a rounded 7,700. Additionally, if the highest build rates (724 dwellings in 2001/2 and 722 in 2007/8) were 3 Table derivation example: +8,000 dwellings added to 55,430 dwellings (Table 2.1) = 63,430 dwells dwells ratio 2.19 in 2031, = 138,910 jobs/dwell in 2031, = 45,920 jobs. Hence population increase +12,000 ( ) and jobs increase +1,600 ( ) over East of England Plan 2031, Draft Revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England, East of England Regional Assembly, March If not, the inference would be for a very large increase in population and dwellings, much above other estimates. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 8

9 maintained, say at 700 per year, the maximum dwellings increment that would arise in the District would be 14,000. These figures provide some yardsticks for future growth: at the top end, 14,000 more dwellings represents an increase of 82% over the NHDC construction rate trend, excluding Stevenage effects, and 24% including it. This seems ambitious but, given the significant backlog of housing construction in the East of England, and the likelihood of additional Stevenage-related development taking place in North Herts, a strong house building performance from 2011 onwards, with recovery from the recession gaining momentum, could be considered possible. On a trend basis this would suggest a dwelling increment towards the higher end of the range considered. However, such an outcome takes no account of possible planning/physical constraints: it is entirely possible that construction over the last decade has absorbed most of the easier sites, whether peripheral settlement land or brownfield land, such that continuation of this rate, let alone an increase, would require unsuitable areas to be developed, e.g. settlement gaps. It does not automatically follow that a continued or increased trend rate of building is appropriate. Of all the dwellings targets being assessed in this report, Option 5, the RSS revision target for North Hertfordshire, (15,800 dwellings) is the highest but the figure includes provision for Stevenage related development, so is not comparable to estimates without this element. The split between Hertfordshire and Stevenage was assessed when the two authorities worked on co-ordinating their housing and employment planning in the SNAP project (Stevenage-North Hertfordshire-Action-Plan), being +9,600 dwellings around Stevenage and +6,200 for North Herts. Employment and business floorspace take up trends Trends of employment change and floorspace take up are widely used in employment land studies as one indicator of potential land needs, just as housing construction trends provide a yardstick for considering future housing growth options. Both have been used in previous North Hertfordshire employment land reviews, so it is relevant to take account of these development trends. Employment trend data (using ABI employees data) is summarised in Table 2.3. It has limitations, both in terms of accuracy and the recent economic climate. With regard to the first, stated employment levels are subject to changes related to how firms report staff workplaces, and with regard to the second the recession has obviously impacted upon employment. Also the latest year for which statistics are available on a consistent basis is With these provisos, Table 2.3 shows changes over It is evident that there is little match between housing and employment growth: the former has been increasing steadily over the period while employment has fallen significantly, in certain sectors, primarily, business/ Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 9

10 financial and other services. Both of these sectoral reductions are arguably atypical with little significance for the rest of employment growth. 6 7 Table 2.3 Trend of employment (employees) North Herts Industry * Change % Change 1 : Agriculture and fishing (SIC A,B) : Energy and water (SIC C,E) : Manufacturing (SIC D) 7,363 7,571 6,909 6,506 6,727 6, : Construction (SIC F) 2,718 2,715 2,749 3,167 3,310 3, : Distribution, hotels and restaurants (SIC G,H) 12,367 13,924 14,605 13,225 12,798 12, : Transport and communications (SIC I) 1,594 1,504 1,612 1,676 1,634 1, Wholesale distribution & land transport (1) 3,862 4,261 3,879 3,706 3,548 3, : Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K) 12,340 11,128 11,834 10,113 9,497 9,934-2, : Public administ. education & health (SIC L,M,N) 8,738 8,323 8,841 8,863 9,097 9, : Other services (SIC O,P,Q) 6,059 4,450 4,344 3,514 2,357 2,372-3, Column Total 51,623 50,098 51,354 47,598 45,968 46,065-5, Source: Nomis/ABI. (1) extracted from 2-digit SIC classification. *under the 2003 classifications Business floorspace take up in the District defined as net completions is summarised for the years 2003/4 to 2009/10 in Table 2.4. Table 2.4 Trend of business floorspace completions North Herts (m2 net) Land 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 Total Avge. p.a. B1 10,903 3,952 1,721-3, ,993-12,754-1,822 B1a NA NA NA NA B1b NA NA NA NA B1c NA NA NA NA 875 1, , All B1 10,903 3,952 1,721-3, ,388-10,760-1,537 B ,476-3,677-1,093-6,117-3,534-1,528-3, B8 4,853 7, ,813 7,425-1,120 23,177 3,311 Net 15,683 24,265-2,607-5, ,765-28,036 9,156 1,308 Source: NHDC. It too shows little consistency, although there has been a positive overall demand for B8 floorspace and, if the single year 2009/10 is ignored, for B1 floorspace. Short term trends can be particularly misleading: for example, the Bone Wells 2006 study reported average take up rates for B1 space to be +5,525 p.a. based on the most recent three years then available. The average for 2003/4 to 2009/10 by contrast is -1,308 m2, although this is influenced by a possibly fluke year (2009/10) which recorded a significant floorspace loss. The original short term average figure was not relied on but illustrates how potentially misleading such trends can be. More plausible average take up rates are estimated if abnormal years are omitted. For 6 In the former, largest reduction apparently in management consultancy, over 2,000 jobs, with nearly 1,000 jobs lost in financial services.; in the latter the reduction almost entirely in sanitation and refuse handling, which could be the result of re-classification. 7 According to the latest employment statistics using the new 2007 SIC, total employees employment in North Hertfordshire reduced from 46,462 in 2008 to 44,472 in Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 10

11 B1 space, omitting gives an average net take up of 2,040 m2 p.a. For B1a/B1b/B1c an average increase of 300m2 p.a. is identified (over a shorter period), mainly B1c. For B2 and B8 floorspace, there has been an average loss of 507 m2 of B2 and average gain of 3,311 m2 of B8, a net gain of say 2,800 m2. It is concluded that neither employment nor business floorspace take up trends provide a very helpful guide to future requirements, although the latter do suggest a trend of some 2,340 m2 p.a. of B1 type and 3,310 m2 of B8. Carried through over this would amount to about 46,800 additional B1 and 66,200 m2 of B8, against which might be set a decrease of 10,100 m2 p.a. of B2 space to reduce this to 56,100 m2. In other words, part of the additional warehousing space is accounted for by change of use from B2 to B8. 8 On top of this, which may be regarded as a demand based estimate, a margin is needed to allow for time for sites to come through the planning process etc. This has previously been assumed as +33% 9 and the same margin is applied for these calculations. Employment levels related to commuting Table 2.2 suggests that the alternative dwellings increase scenarios for North Hertfordshire for infer relatively modest employment increases, the highest being 7,300 linked to the RSS-based 15,8 00 more dwellings option. A higher level of jobs provision would result from maintaining the 2001 commuting ratio, which would imply the need to accommodate 8,200 jobs if the EEFM baseline scenario (+ 10,700 dwellings) was adopted as the best outlook for employment see Table 2.5. This adapts a table prepared in the original Bone Wells Employment Land Review, The table sets out possible employment growth over the period assuming: (i) EEFM baseline projection with dwellings increase of 10,700 (ii) Use of EEFM ratios for population per dwelling/hh/economically active etc (iii) Alternative net out commuting assumptions as per EEFM baseline and 2001 census (constant) levels. 8 This can be seen from comparing B8 floorspace gains and B2 floorspace losses in Table 5.4 of the NHDC Annual Monitoring Report, See earlier report for NHDC, Employment Land Review Update, Bone Wells Urbecon, August Employment Land Review Part 2, Table 4-1, North Herts District Council, November Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 11

12 Table 2.5 Possible employment growth in North Hertfordshire (+10,700 dwellings) Change Dwellings 49,970 55,430 60,940 66, ,740 Households 48,910 54,250 59,640 64, ,510 Average hh size HH/Total population (1) 117, , , , ,800 Residence employment rate Unemployed 700 2,200 1,800 2, Resident workers 58,800 56,100 62,700 64,400 +8,300 Balance (net commuting) -11,200-11,800-14,400-16,400 +4,600 Jobs in North Herts (2) 47,600 44,300 48,200 47,900 +3,600 Alternative net commuting -11,200-11,200-11,200-11,200 0 Jobs in North Herts 47,600 44,900 51,400 53,100 +8,200 Source: Consultants, based on EEFM baseline projections November (1) Assuming identity with non-hh population accounted for in activity rate. (2) Workplace employed people. Some nos. rounded. Keeping dwelling and population increase assumptions the same but simply maintaining out commuting at the 2001 level implies (Table 2.5) more than a doubling of the projected jobs increase in North Hertfordshire, from 3,600 to 8,200. An alternative estimate for employment growth may be identified for the 7,000 dwellings growth option being considered by the Council. For this increase the equivalent employment increase, interpolated from Table 2.2, would be 900. Maintaining commuting at 2001 levels with a 7,000 dwelling increase (increasing local employment by 4,600) implies an increase of 5,500 jobs for the period. Conclusions on employment increase The foregoing assessment provides several possibilities for considering the implications for employment land. A higher projection (+8,200 jobs) combines the latest EEFM baseline housing projection (+10,700 dwellings) with a 2001 level of commuting self containment. A lower projection (+5,500 jobs) combines the same stable commuting assumption with a 7,000 dwellings increase scenario. These can be assessed in terms of their employment land take needs, but an alternative is to consider the actual trend take up of business floorspace and what the implications are if this were to continue. Each is considered in Section 3. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 12

13 Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 13

14 3. Accommodating North Hertfordshire employment growth Employment land estimates related to employment projections Recent employment studies such as the 2010 DTZ/SBC employment capacity study land assume 45% of employment growth has a requirement for accommodation on B-use employment land. This implies that for an increase of 8,200 jobs some 3,690 (say 3,700) jobs would need such land over the period. 11 For an increase of 5,500 jobs for the 7,000 dwellings estimate the number of B use jobs would be 2,475, say 2,500. Translating employment change to B use land change estimates is a very uncertain process, since it can only be attempted by estimating employment change by sector, before allocating particular sectors to a B type land use. For this purpose the only available sectoral projection is the EEFM baseline model run, which makes estimates of employment change as follows: - Employment in manufacturing sectors (B2 land use): 6,200 (2011) to 4,500 (2031), - 27% - Employment in warehousing sectors (B8 land use): 4,500 (2011) to 4,900 (2031), + 8.9% - Employment in office sectors (B1 land use): 11,800 (2011) to 12,900 (2031), +9.3% The lower and higher assumptions for B-land use employment change, with 2001 commuting levels (+3,700 and + 5,500 jobs) are allocated to each B type employment sector change over as shown in Table 3.1. These are simply plausible changes for each B sector given the total increase. Table 3.1 Simplified B-use employment change scenarios for North Hertfordshire based on low (+5,500), and higher (+8,200) total employment growth Sector lower 2031 higher Change lower Change higher Industry B2 type 6,200 5,600 5, Warehousing B8 type 4,500 5,200 5, Offices B1 type 11,800 14,200 15,300 +2,400 +3,500 All B use employment 22,500 25,000 26,200 +2,500 +3,700 Source: Consultants. An approximate estimate of land required, applying floorspace density and plot ratios to the different B categories above is shown in Table 3.2. The indicative additional employment land requirements range from an additional hectares or, with a 33% margin, a range of hectares. 11 Earlier BWU assumptions were for 50% of employment to be classified as B1/B2/B8 use, but more recent assessments indicate that this should be reduced. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 14

15 Table 3.2 B use land needs for different growth scenarios Sector Employment change M2 per Plot Lower Land Higher lower higher worker density (1) ratio need (has) Land need (has) Industry B2 type Warehousing B8 type Offices B1 type +2,400 +3, (2) All B uses + 2,500 +3, Source: Consultants. (1) Employment Land Reviews, Guidance Manual, EEDA March 2008, Table 4.1. (2) Business park ratio = 2.5, reduced for proportion located in town centres. Example of calculation: warehousing employment increase (higher) = 800 jobs x 32 m2 per worker = 25,600 m2 10,000 = 2.56 has x plot ratio 2.5 = 6.4 has. Extrapolating the trend take up of business floorspace As noted in Section 2, net take up p.a. of B1 space for most of the last decade was some 2,340 m2 (2,040 m2 office type) ignoring abnormal years, with net take up of B8 space running similarly at 3,310 m2 p.a. This dropped to 2,800 m2 p.a. when reductions of B2 were set against it. To extrapolate the trends a judgement is necessary as to whether B2 transfer to B8 will occur for the whole of the period Then a margin for pipeline and development effects needs to be made, previously set at +33%. Further, when translating floorspace to land, an assumption needs to be made as to the proportion that might be accommodated in town centres, which would have a different density. For the purpose of this review it is assumed that there is sufficient B2 space to be transferred to B8 use for the first 10 years to 2021, thereafter gross and net B8 demand would be the same. With regard to site densities, it is assumed that 25% of B1 office space demand is accommodated at a town centre plot ratio of 1:1, compared with a 1:2.5 ratio for general employment area floorspace. The estimates from these assumptions are set out in Table 3.3. Table 3.3 Use type Floorspace and land demand at trend take up rates (m2/ha) Average Take up incl. Requirement Requirement Total take-up 33% develop. over by requirement p.a. margin Has (1) (2) (3) B1/B1a/B1b 2,040 m2 2,700 m2 27,000 m2 27,000 m2 54,000 m TC B1C 300 m2 400 m2 4,000 m2 4,000 m2 8,000 m2 2.0 B2 + B8 (10 yrs) 2,800 m2 3,700 m2 37, ,000 m B2 + B8 (10 yrs) 3,300 m2 4,400 m2 0 44,000 44,000 m Total 143, TC Source: Consultants. (1) B1/B1a/B1b x ratio 1:2.5 = 40,500 m2 = 4.05 ha = 10.1 ratio. plot ratio 1:1 = 13,500 m2 = 1.35 ha. (2) B1c = 8,000 m2 = 0.8 1:2.5 ratio = 2.0 ha. (3) B2 + B8 = 37,000 m2 = 3.7 ratio 1:2.5 = 9.25 ha, plus 44,000 m2 = plot ratio = 11.0 ha. As shown in the table about 34 has of employment land would be required with these assumptions, including 1.35 has of town centres sites, over the 20 years to About two Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 15

16 thirds would be industrial type and one third office type. Clearly this extrapolated trend figure is significantly higher than the range roughly estimated from projected increased in employment in B uses ( has), although it could be argued that the latter do not take account of any B1/B2/B8 type of Stevenage employment that may be accommodated on North Herts sites. For the purpose of planning for land requirement it is suggested that the trend projection is assumed. A 33% margin is applied to the trend totals, giving an overall 20 year demand of 43 has. main sites and 1.8 has. town centre sites, 44.8 has. total. Land supply and balance with demand Estimates of land supply in North Hertfordshire are shown in Table 3.4. This in summary shows: Around 3.4 has. of town centre sites 12 has. of employment land presently available, mostly in Letchworth 92.9 has. of potential new sites including Junction 7 land lying within North Herts Table 3.4 Potential employment Land supply in North Hertfordshire Town Town Centre Development Sites Ha Existing sites / redevelopment sites Ha Availabl e Ha Potential New Sites Baldock Police station 0.1 Royston Road (B/e01) 8.5 High St pubs and Town Hall site 0.17 Royston Road (B/e02) Hitchin Churchgate development 0.3 HE3 Burymead Road Former Transco Site, Cadwell Lane (H/e01) Paynes Park 0.3 Land NE of Wilbury Way (area cut by rail curve) (H/e02) Ha Letchworth GC Hermitage Road south side (post office) 0.1 (Former bus depot, Fishponds Road)* Arena Parade, Eastcheap, Broadway, town hall and Post Office 0.5 LE1 Blackhorse Road (north) Land east of Blackhorse Road (site 60) 4.09 The Wynd, Openshaw Way, St Michael s House and Norton Way South 0.45 LE1 Blackhorse Road (south) Garden Square Shopping Centre, adjoining 0.5 LE2 Works Road car park, Council Offices, Former Public house Gernon Road and Eastcheap Junction of Gernon road, Broadway 0.1 Plintson Hall, Broadway Town Square 0.1 Miscellaneous small sites Royston Angel Pavement 0.1 NE of York Way (R/e01) 10.9 Civic Centre 0.4 (Warren car park)* 0.1 Market Place, Old Cattle Market site and Royston Corn Exchange Rural **Junction 7 of the A1 (excl. pt in Stevenage of 10.9 ha) TOTALS Notes. *Town centre sites judged poor in italics, areas excluded from totals. ** Buffering to both the SSSI and A1 will dramatically reduce the size of the developable area. Stevenage Core Strategy identified 65,000m2 of new employment floorspace and 3,000 jobs at this location. Source: NHDC. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 16

17 While the potential figure appears quite large, much of this is uncertain, including the large Hitchin site (25.5 ha) which could only materialise following a major network rail investment, which appears very distant if it happens at all. Additionally, the 21.1 has of rural land at Junction 7 might be seen as a reserve not to be taken up if possible. This would reduce the available supply, excluding town centre sites, to 12.0 (short term) has (longer term) or 58.3 has. It appears sufficient for the trend extrapolation demand, including a significant proportion with a preference for town centre sites. It is more than enough, on this basis, to accommodate an acceleration of the historic average trend take up per year. This assessment relates of course to aggregate supply. Presently available land is concentrated in Letchworth, so there may be a need to promote sites in other locations to provide an adequate choice of sites, e.g. in Baldock or Royston. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 17

18 4. Prospective Stevenage population and employment growth and its accommodation Stevenage Borough Council (SBC) has prepared Population and Employment Capacity Updates 12 which provide recent projections for Stevenage Borough. These are not based on the very latest (November 2010) CLG projections but these show a fairly small decrease in the projected population and number of households in the East of England (-3%) compared with the 2008 based projections used by SBC and, as noted below, that decrease does not apply to Stevenage. Together these papers provide information on the Borough s plans and expectations for growth of dwellings, households, population, economically active and jobs, as well as estimates for employment capacity, both within and adjacent to Stevenage. These are reviewed alongside the observations of North Hertfordshire District 13 for the recent hearings for the Stevenage Core Strategy. EEFM and ONS projections First, dealing with EEFM and ONS baseline projections in similar fashion to those discussed above for North Hertfordshire, Table 4.1 and the calculation following it sets out EEFM and available ONS projections for Stevenage, alongside the RSS targets for the Borough as shown in the March 2010 draft RSS 2031 revision, op cit. The EEFM 2010 Autumn run baseline projection for Stevenage dwellings increase over is 6,300. Table Stevenage employment, population, households and dwellings EEFM baseline projection Autumn 2010 ( 000) Variable Change Employment (1) Population Households Dwellings Jobs/population Jobs/dwelling Pop/dwelling Pop/household Net commuting Source: EEFM November projections. (1) Total workplace employed people (excludes double jobs). Employee jobs projections for are 9,900 and for are 7,200. Applying the EEFM dwellings: population ratios to 2008-based ONS population projections the estimate of dwellings increase is 5,000, as follows: Population ( 000) Dwellings ( 000) Population Estimate for Stevenage Employment Capacity Update, Stevenage Borough Council, January Stevenage Core Strategy and Development Management Development Plan Documents, Statement of North Hertfordshire District Council, Matter 5 Employment Growth, Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 18

19 These baseline dwellings figures correspond to a 2031 population level for Stevenage of 88,400 (ONS) to 91,700 (EEFM). Both are in fact higher than the (ONS 2006-based) figure set out in the SBC population report, which was just 86,800. East of England Plan projection The comparison with the draft RSS housing targets figure for is not straightforward since this is for Greater Stevenage. To the RSS figure for Stevenage, 6,400 dwellings 14, accordingly needs to be added (in RSS Strategy terms) the Stevenage related element included in the (Option 5) 15,800 dwellings for North Hertfordshire provisionally 9,600. The gross Greater Stevenage total of additional dwellings over would thus be 16,000. The population equivalent, at Table 3.1 ratios, is 35,200. Stevenage growth targets/aspirations The SBC population paper sets out the 2031 population target level required to meet the Borough s Policy growth trajectory as shown in Table 4.2. Table 4.2 Stevenage population projection Stage 1: Trend-based population 79,800 79,300 80,100 81,500 83,200 85,000 86,800 Stage 3: Policy growth - 2,210 10,730 18,100 25,540 33,170 40,610 Total population 79,800 81,510 90,470 99, , , ,410 Source: Table 9, Population estimate for Stevenage, Stevenage Borough Council, January Given the likely upward movement of the trend population (latest EEFM & ONS baseline projections) the policy growth element may decrease somewhat, but the scale of it, approaching half as much again as the trend outturn, does not appear plausible. Of course this could begin to take off, but a brief glance at recent population estimates for Stevenage suggests this is unlikely. Mid year population estimates for Stevenage are as follows: ,300; ,000. This is 570 p.a. so at this trend rate the 2011 estimate is likely to be about 82,100. However, the with policy projection for this year is 90,500, a difference of more than 8,000. Even if the rate of growth accelerates, it is hard to see how an existing (2011) 82,100 can reach 127,400 by For this to happen, current annual population increase must suddenly quadruple, then continuing every year to This is not really credible. How much it could reach above the c. 90,000 trend is obviously a matter of judgement. Our own view is that this policy element could reach 5,000-10,000, which on top of the ONS/EEFM trend figure suggests a total Greater Stevenage population of around ,000 in The observations of NHDC on the Stevenage Core Strategy (Matter 5 Employment Growth, op cit) are not reproduced here but are similarly sceptical of the Borough s population and 14 Virtually the same as the EEFM baseline projection. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 19

20 employment targets, including the absence of evidence for a major acceleration of employment, including the flat level of actual recorded jobs over this decade. Prospective employment in Stevenage Total Stevenage baseline employment in 2031 is estimated at some 52,700 (Table 4.1). The SBC Employment capacity update estimates employment as a function of the projected (127,400) population no alternatives to this are considered and having calculated jobs required as a function of the labour supply, the only options relate to commuting levels or degree of self-containment. Alongside a central estimate of jobs required at the same level of containment recorded in 2001, two calculations are made of the equivalent jobs (and floorspace) requirements at greater and lesser levels of self-containment (Employment capacity paper, Figure 2). The working assumption or modelled requirement was an unchanged level of containment at 58%. For the record it may be noted that the EEFM baseline does not assume this, but an increase of in commuting another 1,900 (Table 3.1). Whatever the labour supply calculations are for job requirements, such changes in commuting imply that additional jobs would be located in Stevenage and must be accommodated. Table 4.3 below sets out the estimate of jobs required and floorspace need according to, first, the SBC modelled 2031 population (127,400) and an alternative much lower population of 100,000. Although this is comfortably above the baseline it is a possible outcome and it is sensible to consider floorspace and employment land take implications, for Stevenage and North Hertfordshire. Using similar ratios, total 2031 jobs for that alternative lower population are estimated to be some 49,200. Table 4.3 Potential wider Stevenage area employment and floorspace requirements for different Stevenage population trajectories, 2031 (2001 level containment) Population (SBC target) 79,800 85,150 90,470 99, ,74 118,87 127,410 Economically active 41,550 43,520 49,910 55,220 60,360 64,950 69,030 AR - average Self contained 24,100 25,240 28,950 32,030 35,010 37,670 40,040 In-commuters 18,960 19,750 20,190 20,830 21,460 22,150 22,830 Total job estimate 43,060 44,990 49,140 52,860 56,470 59,820 62,870 Population (alternative) 79,800 79,300 82,100 86,200 90,600 95, ,000 Economically. active (SBC ratio) 41,550 43,520 45,160 47,410 50,740 52,360 54,000 AR average(sbc ratio) Self contained 24,100 25,240 26,190 27,500 29,430 30,370 31,320 In-commuters (@SBC ratios) 18,960 18,390 18,320 17,880 18,190 17,860 17,860 Total job estimate 43,060 44,990 44,510 45,380 47,620 48,230 49,180 Source: Consultants and SBC population and employment capacity papers. SBC have calculated employment floorspace capacity and floorspace requirements for their projected activity levels for 2026, and these can be compared with the equivalent floorspace estimates for the lower population/jobs trajectory for that year, using SBC assumptions for Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 20

21 proportion of total jobs needing B-class land and their translation to m2 floorspace. Capacity and demand estimates are set out in Table 4.4. The table indicates that in-borough capacity should be sufficient (accommodating +2,600 jobs) for the lower growth scenario (+ 2,400 jobs) by Table 4.4 Potential wider Stevenage employment and B class floorspace requirements Floorspace demand Total + jobs (1) B Class (58% self.cont) B1 B2 B8 Total SBC estimate 16, , ,000 5,000 8, ,000 Alternative 5, ,400 41,300 1,600 2,600 45,400 Floorspace supply/capacity m2 Jobs Office hub -9,620 1,180 Town C. & leisure park 37,000 1,940 Housing allocations -14, Subtotal Stevenage Boro. 13,010 2,595 Junction 7 67,000 3,130 NES4 12, Stevenage West 36,000 1,290 SNAP/Greenfield total 115,000 4,760 Total wider Stevenage 128,010 7,355 Source: SBC Employment capacity update and Table 4.3. The SBC paper also estimates, separate to these sites, a capacity of about 49,000 m2 of B-class floorspace from implementation of existing permissions and allocations. While not relevant to the lower employment projection this capacity estimated enough to accommodate 4,000 jobs would provide ample space for the additional projected growth from 2026 to It is concluded from this exercise that no land in North Hertfordshire is required to meet likely Stevenage requirements, this eventuality only arising from the aspirational 127,400 population target. Taking up employment land in North Hertfordshire especially say at Junction 7 - would be appropriate only on the strategic grounds that such a site was required to attract a flagship investment, that could not be persuaded to build on an existing Stevenage Borough site. Apart from that, the only foreseeable development would be that related to housing growth taking place outside the Borough, in other words local population-related employment such as shops, education and similar uses, not generally requiring B-class land. And it is emphasised that the growth trajectory which can be accommodated by in-stevenage employment capacity is still well above the trend or baseline population outturn for Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 21

22 5. Possible Junction 7 development impacts on North Hertfordshire employment sites Possible impacts The possible impact of development at Junction 7 of the A1(M) upon existing North Hertfordshire employment areas obviously depends on the nature of the development. The site is very large (31.0 ha see Table 3.4), greenfield, and with excellent accessibility. Table 3.4 shows that no really comparable sites are available in the District: hence if intended to attract a strategic activity it could be argued that such a user would not go elsewhere in North Herts and thus not have a harmful competitive impact. It might in fact benefit North Hertfordshire in terms of possible types of job, or employer, that would not otherwise be attracted to the area. If alternatively, the site were to be developed to accommodate smaller or medium sized projects, it could be argued that development at Junction 7 would compete with existing North Hertfordshire areas, since given an exceptionally accessible location, land there would be likely to be developed ahead of other employment land in the District, at least those sites most close to J7. This is a plausible argument, but one that needs careful thinking through. For example, while the site owners of employment land nearby, e.g. Letchworth Garden City Foundation, may face a longer interval until their land attracts a developer, this is a possible loss to the site owners but not the overall economy. New development at J7 would physically be in North Hertfordshire and workers in the District could readily access the jobs, so that for the workforce it may make little difference. For these reasons, it is necessary to be cautious about possible negative impacts. The most common sense approach is probably to identify the closest areas to J7 and consider whether the site owners at least may be directly competitive with a J7 location. Logically this would suggest looking at the distance in drive time terms of other employment areas to J7. For this purpose Google Maps was used to establish drive times and routes to the main four North Hertfordshire towns Hitchin, Letchworth, Baldock and Royston. For simplification this was specified as the centre of each town, as a proxy for employment sites around the towns in different directions plus the centres themselves, which could attract B1 jobs in their own right. This confirmed the proximity of Hitchin, Letchworth and Baldock to J7 and comparative distance of Royston see Table 5.1. Table 5.1 Drive times from A1(M) J7 to Hitchin, Letchworth, Baldock and Royston Hitchin Letchworth Baldock Royston Drive times (miles and minutes) 7.9/ 12 mins 8.7 / 13 mins 9.5 / 13 mins 17.4 / 25 mins Main routes A1M, A602 A1M A1M A1M, A505 Source: Google Maps. From this analysis it is concluded that Royston is effectively too far away to be impacted by development at Junction 7, although the other three towns are only minutes drive time Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 22

23 away and all are less than 10 miles distant. Hence it is regarding these three that possible impacts may be relevant. Employment areas in Hitchin, Letchworth and Baldock Employment areas in North Hertfordshire towns were shown in Table 3.4. As the table summarises, both Hitchin and Letchworth have substantial existing sites which are developed but, given their size, especially in Letchworth (58.6 ha) are likely to provide some redevelopment opportunities. Potential new sites are available in Baldock (8.5 and 11.9 ha), Hitchin (10.9 ha) 15 and Letchworth (4.1 ha). It is likely that development of smaller plots at J7 could be competitive with these, and perhaps mean that these took longer to implement. However, considering them site by site, it is apparent that locations in Baldock (Royston Road (B/e01, B/e02) and Letchworth (east of Blackhorse Road) have good accessibility and should be able to hold their own in competitive terms, although the former Transco site in Hitchin is more problematic. Conclusions on J7 development impact The consultants judgement about J7 development is that it would be unlikely to have a detrimental impact upon the District s existing and major potential employment areas, and insofar as it would provide another choice of employment location in the District, and possibly new types of employment activity, it could confer a net economic benefit. The major consideration is really whether development of such a large site, if the 31 ha size is confirmed, is justified in principle, given the availability of other sites in Stevenage and severe doubts over the realism of the Borough s growth ambitions. This becomes as much a planning as an economic issue: is development of this large greenfield land area in North Hertfordshire justified in terms of need? It does not appear that a convincing business and economic case has been made by Stevenage Borough. 15 Ignoring the very speculative Wilbury Way land. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 23

24 6. Implications of an older workforce Projections It is perhaps more common to assess the implications of an older population than an older workforce, although the former is likely to imply the latter. Statistically, the population of North Hertfordshire is projected to age in a similar way to that of the county, region and England as a whole over the next few decades, and should immigration be curtailed, this would become more pronounced. As far as the specific workforce cohorts are concerned, the ONS population projections for North Hertfordshire over consistent with a (consultants estimate) housing increase of 11,300 - show the workforce profile to change over the period as summarised in Table 6.1. As is clear from the table, the ONS projected labour force would actually show a noticeable increase in absolute terms, from 92,400 to 104,700.so in that sense there is no general problem of labour supply. Further, although there would undoubtedly be an increase in the proportion of older age groups the over 60s it is not a uniform trend, since the proportion in some younger age groups, e.g , actually increases. Table 6.1 Workforce age profile, North Hertfordshire District, Age group Change No % No % No % No % Total Source: ONS May 2010 population projections. Bone Wells Urbecon 2010 Page 24