Hyungpyo Moon. KDI, Korea

Transcription

1 Hyungpyo Moon KDI, Korea

2 OUTLINE 1. Current Issues in Pension Coverage 2. Pension Reform in Future Policy Agenda

3 Mandatory participation Contributory/partially funded DB Redistribution function Avg.R.R(40yrs): 60%(30+30) Pensionable age: 60 65( 33) Guarantees min. income ( 08) single hh. 436 ths. Won/mth Major Old-age Income Security System in Korea Tax subsidized Private Pensions <3rd Pillar> Corporate Pensions/ Tax subsidized Retirement Allowances <2nd Pillar> <1st Pillar> NPS Earnings-proportional Flat rate CPI indexed income/asset tested Basic Living Standard < 0 Pillar> Security Act (BLSSA) 2 person hh. 734 ths. Won/mth

4 Public Pension Beneficiaries: Age 65+ (2005) NPS coverage: workplace(1988), self-employed(1999) Currently, NPS coverage is very limited. Poverty rate among the elderly is more than twice as high as the nat l average. OPS 2.8% BLSSA 8.4% Others 5.7% NPS 12.4% non-receipients 70.7% Source: Yoon(2007)

5 Beneficiaries of Old-age Pension(NPS):Forecasts As the NPS matures, the coverage will be expanded gradually. (% of pop. 65+) '07 '10 '20 '30 '40 '50 '60 Data: NPS(2007)

6 Number of Insured Persons(NPS): 2006 Currently, about 1/3 of the insured are non-contributors. (ths., %) individually insured total insured workplacebased contributors collected not-collected exempted voluntary participants 17,740 (100.0) 8,605 (48.5) 9,086 (51.2) 3,150 (17.8) 1,000 (5.6) 4,936 (27.8) 49 (0.3) Non-contributors Data: NPS(2007) (33.4%)

7 Number of Exempted from Contributions The number of those who are exempted is increasing in recent years. More than 90% of them remained as exempted for 2 years and longer.(nps.2003) 5,513 4,446 4,476 4,250 4,565 4,683 4,634 4,936 5,016 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07.6

8 Delinquency Periods(2003) More than 1/4 of delinquent contributors are not paying contributions for 2 years or longer. 34.9% 26.5% 23.0% 15.6% < 1 2~5 6~24 > 25 months Data: NPS(2003)

9 Characteristics of Non-contributors Insufficient income and administrative incapacity are main causes for non-contributions. in school 1.8% sickness/leave 2.5% military service 0.5% address unknown 10.1% others 4.3% closed business 8.5% unemployed 72.3% Data: NPS(2007)

10 Probabilities of Non-Contribution Micro study showed that probabilities of non-contribution are significantly higher for i) less educated/unskilled workers, ii) atypical workers/selfemployed, iii) in agricultural sector. (Seok(2003)) 39.2% education 32.9% 21.4% work status 78.8% middle sch. and below high sch. tertiary income 48.7% 39.3% 67.5% 67.8% 17.4% 51.4% 1.7% 24.7% full-time workers temp./daily workers self-emp. employers unemp. Data: KIHASA(2007) below P.L 100~120% 120~150% over 150%

11 2007 NPS Reform <3rd Pillar> Pre-Reform Private Pensions Corporate Pensions Post-Reform Private Pensions Corporate Pensions <1/2 Pillar> NPS E.P.(30%) F.R.(30%) NPS E.P.(20%) F.R.(20%) < 0 Pillar> BLSSA BOAP BLSSA

12 2007 NPS Reform Measures for Financial Stabilization Average Income Replacement Ratio(40yrs): 60%(~2007) 50%(2008) 40%(2028) Contribution rate(9%) is unchanged. Measures for Additional Coverage to introduce pension credit systems: childbirth credit(12~50 months) military service credit(6 months) to increase Government subsidies for farmers & fishermen gives subsidies of max. 1/2 (before 1/3) of their contributions until 2014.

13 2007 NPS Reform Introduction of Basic Old-age Pension non-contributory / tax-financed coverage: 60% of population 65+ (means-tested) 70%(2009) benefits: flat benefits of R.R. 5% 10%(2028) Issues in BOAP coverage: neither demogrant, nor targeted Benefit level is too low: single person hh: 20% of Poverty Line(BLSSA) two person hh: 18% Poverty Line

14 Future Prospects The new president elect promised structural reform of the NPS. NPS E.P.(20%) 20% E-P Pension 20%(25%) F.R.(20%) 20% Basic Pension 20%(15%) BOAP 5~10% E-P Pension: funded DB plan Basic Pension: non-contributory/ tax financed covers more than 80% of pop. 65+

15 Population Ageing in Korea: Forecasts Total Fertility Rate: 1.13(2005) 40,000 35,000 (thousand) 64.5 (%) , , ,000 15, , , ~ old-age dependency ratio 0 Data: NSO(2006)

16 Expenditure Forecasts of Basic Pension Due to rapid population ageing, BP expenditure alone will take up 5.8~ 9.6% of GDP in (%of GDP) 12 When financed by VAT, the tax rate (currently 10%) should go up to 21~29% by Coverage: 100% Coverage: 80% Coverage: 100% Coverage: 80% 9.6% 7.7% 7.2% 5.8% Source: KDI, 20%of A, 15%of A

17 Other Policy Options: Targeted Approach Instead of introducing demogrant-type Basic Pension, we can modify the means-tested BOAP so that it targets the poor elderly more effectively. Coverage: 60~70% of pop ~30% Benefits: average R.R 5~10% 10~15% With the coverage expansion of NPS, the BOAP can be converted to Guaranteed Minimum Pension.

18 CONCLUSION: Basic Pension or Means-tested? For this question, we need to consider long-term sustainability/ affordability financing plan( general tax revenue or earmarked) and DWL (marginal) administrative costs /capacity of means-testing impacts on work/savings incentives impact on incentive to participate in contributory scheme effectiveness in reducing poverty/ inequality among the elderly integration with the other tiers irreversibility / path-dependency Despite these concerns, however, it is likely that the decision will be made based on political consideration, rather than socio-economic consideration.

19 Thank you