THIRTIETH NATIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING

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1 THIRTIETH NATIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING Official Opening by YBhg Tan Sri Dato Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim Chairman, PLUS Malaysia Berhad Parkroyal Hotel Kuala Lumpur Lower Lobby Foyer, Plaza 1 Kuala Lumpur 4 August 2015 MALAYSIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

2 Rebalancing Growth - addressing regional disparities Few countries have managed to match Malaysia s feat of transforming herself from a sleepy British colonial outpost to a roaring Asian Tiger within a few decades. She is arguably one of the poster boys of poverty eradication and wealth redistribution. Malaysia is currently classified as a upper-middle income nation with a highly open economy. It is no coincidence that Malaysia was one of 13 countries identified by the Commission on Growth and Development of the World Bank to have recorded an average growth of more than 7 percent per year for 25 years or more in its 2008 Growth Report. The World Bank was unequivocal in their assessment of Malaysia. According to them economic growth was inclusive, as Malaysia also almost succeeded in eradicating hardcore poverty: the share of households living below the national poverty line (USD 8.50 per day in 2012) fell from over 50 percent in the 1960s to less than 1.0 percent currently. On the road towards achieving Vision 2020, we now reflect our previous achievements in the Tenth Malaysia Plan (10MP) while trying to realise the promises of the Eleventh Malaysia Plan (11MP). Within the larger scheme of things, the New Economic Model (NEM) was unveiled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in March 2010, with the main thrust of the NEM being to propel Malaysia to a high-income economy that is both inclusive and sustainable. Incidentally the 11MP is the last of the five year plans before Vision 2020 and it is targeted that the main crux of the NEM will spill over from the 10MP into the 11MP. The three main objectives of the NEM is propositioned to make Malaysia more competitive globally and regionally, especially with the setting up of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in late this year. While it is anticipated that fulfilling the World Bank s definition of a high-income economy based on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita will not be an issue. However does historical performance predict future performance? It can be argued that past performance does not guaranty future performance. This because the cornerstone for projections is based on economic modelling. Extrapolating from current trends is only reliable when predicting growth in the next year and the following year, however once the timeline gets longer, such assumptions certainly become more questionable. To be fair, when it comes to projecting future growth, economic modelling can offer only so much guidance. These models predict future economic outputs on the basis of projected future levels of economic inputs, but future economic inputs are impossible to predict. In the end, there is little to do but extrapolate from current inputs. But inputs, as well as other key features of any economy, change over time. Malaysia's economy has transformed rapidly but at some point in the future, high growth rates might level out and her economic growth slow down, in other words the rate of growth decelerates before eventually reaching a steady-state phase. Fortunately, Malaysia is located in an

3 economically dynamic region, as ASEAN has emerged centre stage in the global economy and has been recognised as one of the most dynamic regions in the world. Thus we can benefit by riding on ASEAN s intrinsic strengths and prospects. In that way our economic performance would be vastly better than that of the world average. However, looking inwards, an introspection will reveal that there are regional disparities. Philosophically we can argue that some regions are at a disadvantage due to geographical reasons and historical legacy. In addition to poor physical connectivity (i.e. road networks, railways and ports) that also impede economic growth. Have we done enough to correct these imbalances? Make no mistake that national integration would be a futile endeavour should there exist glaring disparity. What the statistics tell us is that while some states will definitely achieve developed status and enjoy a high income-economic within the set timeframe, others will take a much longer time. These states need assistance to help them develop at a faster pace. All of these bear implications for economic development policies both at the Federal and State levels. In the final analysis, if we were to achieve regional economic integration in ASEAN, we must first put our house in order. There should be seamless connectivity underpinned by strong institutions in Malaysia. In this matter, state economic corridors have a pivotal role to play. MIER's National Economic Briefing is a forum for discussing these and other issues of concern to the Malaysian economy. We will be presenting the results of the second quarter 2015 Business Conditions and Consumer Sentiment Surveys during the briefing. The results of MIER's other four industry surveys covering automotive, residential property, retail trade and tourism will also be presented. Targeted at senior management and industry captains, the briefing provides a platform for frank discussions and debates. Come join us and keep abreast of the latest happenings in the Malaysian economy. Attendance is limited and will be on a first-come, first-served basis.

4 PROGRAMME Tuesday, 4 August a.m. Registration 9.00 a.m. Opening Remarks Emeritus Professor Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid Executive Director, MIER 9.30 a.m. Refreshment Address and Official Opening YBhg Tan Sri Dato Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim Chairman, PLUS Malaysia Berhad a.m. National Economic Briefing National Economic Outlook, Business Conditions, Consumer Sentiments, Automotive Industry, Residential Property, Retail Trade and Tourism Market Perspectives Emeritus Professor Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid Executive Director, MIER a.m. Q& A noon Special Topic: Dashing to high income economic status at different speeds - why not all states will arrive at the same time? MIER Researcher 1.00 p.m. Lunch Registration fee: RM per person for MIER Members (RM % GST (RM30)) RM per person for Others (RM % GST (RM36))

5 THIRTIETH NATIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING 4 August 2015, Lower Lobby Foyer, Plaza 1, Parkroyal Hotel, Kuala Lumpur REGISTRATION FORM Conference Fees : GST No : HRDF claimable HRDF: mycoid U * RM each for MIER Members (RM500 + GST 6% (30)) * RM each for Other (RM600 + GST 6% (36)) The fees include presentation material, refreshment and lunch. All registration must be received by MIER not later than 31 July Cancellations and refunds will not be made after that date. However, substitution will be allowed if made at least 72 hours before the Conference. Name Designation Organisation Mailing Address Contact Person Tel No. Fax No (If there are more than one participant from the same organisation, please attach a separate list). Please tick ( ) at the appropriate box: MIER Member Others Payment details: Please invoice accordingly Enclosed is a crossed-cheque (No) for the amount of MYR made payable to the MALAYSIAN INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Date Signature of contact person and company stamp (RSVP (603) / / , Fax: (603) , isnani@mier.po.my, faizah@mier.po.my (Attn: Ms Isnani Ismail/Ms faizah by 31 July 2015)

THIRTY-FIRST NATIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING

THIRTY-FIRST NATIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING Official Opening by YB Datuk Johari bin Abdul Ghani Minister of Finance II Parkroyal Hotel Kuala Lumpur Plaza 1, Lower Lobby 26 July 2016 MALAYSIAN INSTITUTE OF