The French Union Movement in the crisis. Jean-Marie Pernot Politologue

Transcription

1 The French Union Movement in the crisis Jean-Marie Pernot Politologue

2 GDP : level and growth rate (Sources: INSEE, IMF April 2014 WEO, Macrobonds, Ires) , , , ,43,3 3, , ,90, ,5 2,5 2,3 1,8 GDP YoY GDP, 2008= , , ,7 2, ,0 0, ,5 1,71,8 1,91,9 1, IMF Forecast

3 Overview on the economic situation

4 Governement net lending and gross debt (Sources: INSEE, Macrobonds, Ires) Gov. Net lending as % of GDP Gov. Gross debt as % of GDP

5 Harmonised unemployment rate /01/ /08/ /03/ /10/ /05/ /12/ /07/ /02/ /09/ /04/ /11/ /06/ /01/ /08/ /03/ /10/ /05/ /12/ /07/ /02/ /09/ /04/ /11/ /06/ /01/ /08/ /03/ /10/ /05/ /12/ /07/ /02/ /09/ /04/2014 (Sources: Eurostat, Macrobonds, Ires) France Euro area

6 Wage and Productivity ( ) Q1 00 Q1 01 Wage Valeur and productivity ajoutée (2000=100) developments Sources: Eurostat, Offices statistiques nationaux, calculs CEP Sources: Eurostat, INSEE, Ires) Groupe Alpha) Q1 02 Q1 03 Real average gross wage (consumer prices) Real average gross wage (Value added price deflator) Per head productivity Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q107 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13

7 Gross wage (per head), France and Europe Gross nominal wage (per head) (Sources: Eurostat, Ires, last quarter: t3 2013) Gross real wages (per head) (Sources: Eurostat, Ires, last quarter : t3 2013) Q1 02 YoY Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q107 Q1 08 Pays du "North" "Nord" France Pays "South" du "Sud" Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q YoY Q1 01 Q1 02 France "North" Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q107 "South" Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13

8 Share of industry in total value added and employment (Sources; INSEE, quarterly accounts, Ires) Value Added 14 Employment A1980T1 A1980T4 A1981T3 A1982T2 A1983T1 A1983T4 A1984T3 A1985T2 A1986T1 A1986T4 A1987T3 A1988T2 A1989T1 A1989T4 A1990T3 A1991T2 A1992T1 A1992T4 A1993T3 A1994T2 A1995T1 A1995T4 A1996T3 A1997T2 A1998T1 A1998T4 A1999T3 A2000T2 A2001T1 A2001T4 A2002T3 A2003T2 A2004T1 A2004T4 A2005T3 A2006T2 A2007T1 A2007T4 A2008T3 A2009T2 A2010T1 A2010T4 A2011T3 A2012T2 A2013T1 A2013T4

9 Brief political background

10 Popularity of F. Hollande, since his election (rate of good opinion)

11 Votes for the National Front in last polls millions of votes in % Européennes ,710 24,95 % Présidentielles2012 6, ,90 % Européennes ,092 6,34 % Présidentielle ,835 10,4 % Européennes ,685 9,81 % Présidentielle ,805 16,86 %

12 Influence of NF among workers NF vote of workers according to their proximity to the Unions Survey for the european election in may 2014 close to NF Vote CGT 22 % CFDT 14 % FO 33 % Solidaires 27 % Autres syndicats 29 % Workers saying they are close to a union NF, Vote is 25% Workers saying they are not close to any union, NF Vote is 34 %

13 Main unions in France CGT Confédération générale du travail CFDT Confédération française démocratique du travail Force ouvrière CFTC Confédération française des travailleurs chrétiens CFE-CGC Confédération française de l encadrement UNSA Union nationale des syndicats autonomes Solidaires

14 Union density in France ( ) en % active population , stability

15 Social background

16 Three stages , consultation/national collective agreements , occupying the streets, union unity 2011 till now, division and weak social movements

17 , first steps in the crisis Loi de janvier 2007 «Tout projet de réforme envisagé par le Gouvernement qui porte sur les relations individuelles et collectives du travail, l'emploi et la formation professionnelle ( ) fait l'objet d'une concertation préalable avec les organisations syndicales de salariés et d'employeurs ( ) en vue de l'ouverture éventuelle d'une telle négociation». Some «National general agreements» (NGA) - NGA of January the 13 th of 2008, about labour market reform - Common point of view (20 th of August 2008) between employer organisations and some unions (CGT and CFDT) about the modification of union representativity and the rules of collective bargaining.

18 , Time for rallying Large demonstrations in 2009 and 2010 Joint program against the economic and social crisis between CGT, CFDT, FO, CFTC,CFE-CGC, Solidaires, UNSA, FSU (5 th January of 2009), demonstrations in January and March 2009 Several massive demonstrations in the fall of 2010 against the pension reform of N. Sarkozy

19 Since 2011, the stage setting of social dialogue Birth of the Social Agenda and flowering of General Agreements The Social conferences of F. Hollande governments NGA new way = classical GA on a single topic + social pact 2

20 The Social Conferences 9-10 th of July 2012, 300 participants, 7 workshops roadmap, method and schedule th of June 2013, 300 participants, 6 roundtables roadmap, method and schedule 7-8 th of July 2014?

21 The neo corporatist hypothesis? Dispersion and Union weakness Lack of real employers partnership The heavy hand of the State The nearly complete décentralisation of collective bargaining in the companies

22 Collective bargaining at company level Number of collective agreements

23 Likelihood of double integration Advantage: Social dialogue before the establishment of the law is more effective Two dangers: - gives a veto power to employers organisations against the promotion of new rights for workers - danger of a double integration : on top, in the making of the law ; at the bottom, in a managerial oriented social dialogue at company level

24 The union division Some strategical oppositions - going along or not with the government - accepting or not the european constraint - dealing or not with the employers

25 Hard times Wich have not strengthened the French union movement