Senior Salaries Review Body

Transcription

1 The National Police Chiefs Council Submission to the Senior Salaries Review Body January

2 1. Operational Context Recorded Crime 1.2. The Changing Risk 1.3. National Threats 1.4. The Terrorist Threat 1.5. Demand on the Police 1.6. Summary of Operational Findings 2. Organisational Context National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) 2.2. National Design Advisory Group (NDAG) 2.3. Structural Reform and Specialist Capabilities 2.4. Police Efficiency 2.5. Summary of Organisational Findings 3. The Financial Context Summary of Financial Findings 4. The Workforce The Workforce Context 4.2. Gender 4.3. Ethnicity 4.4. Recruitment 4.5. Entry Routes into Policing 4.6. Leavers 4.7. Severance 4.8. Attendance 4.9. Morale Wellbeing Summary of Workforce Findings 5. Workforce Reform Future options for Change 5.2. Update on Winsor Reform 5.3. Reforming the Powers of Police Staff and Volunteers 5.4. Enabling Closer Working Between the Emergency Services 5.5. Policing Education Qualification Framework (PEQF) 5.6. College of Policing Leadership Review 5.7. Workforce Futures 5.8. Pension Changes 5.9. Tax Changes Home Secretary s Direction in the PRRB Remit Letter for 2016/ Summary of Workforce Reform Findings Proposals Pay Proposals 2 Contents Contents 2 Executive Summary The Policing Landscape...4

3 6.2. Recruitment 6.3. General Retention 6.4. Role or Post Specific Recruitment and Retention 6.5. Inflationary Pressures and the Cost of Living 6.6. Comparability with Other Sectors 6.7. Regional Variations 6.8. Greater Flexibility for Future Reform 6.9. Pay Proposals Findings Options Recommendation Regional Pay and Allowances Recommendation 7. Conclusion and Summary of Recommendations.. 53 Annex A

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This second submission to the Senior Salaries Review Body provides an update on the context within which policing operates. Whilst many traditional crime measures have seen reductions in recent years, globalisation continues to accelerate and present new challenges resulting in a rise in the complexity of the police task. High harm cases, such as sexual offences, child safeguarding and domestic abuse, have seen significant increases. These are complex in nature, staff intensive and police officers dealing with them are subject to high levels of personal accountability and public scrutiny. Serious and organised crime generates new threats, like human trafficking, while terrorism has become more fragmented and harder to combat. There is a requirement for an aggregated response in which specialist resources are brought together from a number of police forces to ensure that threats are tackled effectively. As people do more and more online, the threat from cybercrime grows whether it is fraud, data theft, grooming and exploitation of children or stalking and harassment. As crime trends change forces need to focus on protecting people from new types of harm through the development of new tactics and capabilities, particularly for our staff. Technology offers huge opportunities to improve the way that the police communicate with and protect the public. It also offers the potential to accelerate business processes and manage risk more effectively. Again this will all have implications for our people. Between 2010 and 2016 policing saw budget reductions of 25% in real terms, however this was applied at different rates given the variation in reliance in government grant. Indications were that budgets would continue to reduce at similar rates and so the spending settlement at the end of 2015, which protected policing subject to precept rises, came as a very welcome announcement. The change to budget assumptions that had been used prior to the settlement meant that much of the data available about future workforce predictions was being reworked and was not available for this submission. Workforce numbers have continued to reduce in 2015, although the rate of reductions of police officers has slowed down. Recruitment of officers has continued to be at low levels, other than the Metropolitan Police Service, and there is no indication that there are any difficulties in recruiting sufficient applicants at the appropriate standard. In fact the opportunities to join policing through different routes is being extended, particularly with the greater us of Police Now. Turnover of police officers continues to be low in comparison to other sectors, with the majority of officers leaving forces either through retirement or transfer to other forces. Progression in policing has historically been associated with promotion and the opportunities of promotion have been limited in recent years. All chief officer appointments have come through traditional routes to date (the direct entry superintendent scheme is still in its early days and there have been no chief officer appointments from overseas). Information around force motivation and morale was not available for this submission but the greater use of the Durham University Business School staff survey will provide consistent, comparable and well evidenced information in due course. However, these surveys are unlikely to provide information about chief officer morale. Other indicators, such as force level sickness, have shown a rise in concern in comparison to last year however this is a one year rise and should be monitored. It has not been possible to get accurate data around sickness for chief officers although this has traditionally been low, and mainly affected by longer term absences. Forces are also placing an increasing focus on wellbeing to ensure that staff are supported. 4

5 In the remit letter to SSRB the Home Secretary set out the need to develop a workforce model for the future. Several strands of work are described in this submission that will help to shape the package of reform in time for The College of Policing Leadership Review made ten recommendations that will shape the agenda for change. In particular, a review of the levels in police organisations will provide the rank and grade structure, the Policing Educational Qualifications Framework will set out the entry and progression requirements and a Continuous Professional Development framework will ensure that people have the skills and knowledge for the future. The Metropolitan Police Service has also commissioned analysis on the levers needed to implement the workforce model by 2020, by building on existing work and identifying new options. The pay and reward design needs to follow the reformed workforce framework. The 2016 the SSRB remit letter centred on the annual pay uplift. After a few years of stability in forces in the south east, there is growing evidence that issues of recruitment and retention are beginning to increase. One force has already approved steps to reward officers in recognition of the considerable additional cost of living in that area. However, they are restricted by existing regulations. Flexibility in the maximum value of the south east allowance is therefore recommended (as originally agreed in the Police Negotiating Board), allowing forces to increase the allowance by up to 1000 in geographic areas where a need exists. This issue is more relevant to PRRB. Pay uplifts are restricted to a maximum average of 1% per annum across the public sector and these should be targeted to assist recruitment and retention and service delivery. There are concerns that application numbers are low for some chief officer positions, but there are likely to be a variety of reasons behind this. The greatest concern around local recruitment issues arises in London and is detailed in the Metropolitan Police Service submission. Therefore, if targeting is agreed then it would only be justified on the basis of local needs and devolved to the chief constable, in consultation with the PCC, or the PCC for chief constable appointments (however flexibility for chief constable appointments already exists). There are, however, only a few forces that would want that local responsibility. Although price rises are low, particularly in the last year, police officers have experienced five years of pay restraint, in common with other public sector workers. Hay Group has also provided analysis comparing chief officer pay with other sectors. This suggests that pay in this group is becoming less competitive, however this work should inform longer term considerations. The workforce reform programme will inevitably lead to changes to the pay and reward structure for policing and, if it is to be implemented in a timely way, then additional flexibility will be needed to enable and incentivise transition to a new model. If the total pay bill is limited to a 1% increase in any year then this will allow few options for investment. Therefore the only way to build greater flexibility for future years would be to introduce a non-consolidated award in A non-consolidated award could also enable chief constables / PCCs to target pay according to local needs if desired, without moving away from a national pay structure. Non-consolidation does not affect actual income for officers within the relevant year but will have an impact for some officers in pension terms (particularly for those officers in their final year of service and on the 1987 Police Pension Scheme). Safeguards could also be provided by guaranteeing to consolidate the 1% pay bill into pay in the future, but in line with the new workforce model. 5

6 A 1% non-consolidated award, with an option for those chief constables and PCCs who want to target according to local needs, is the preferred option. However, if the business case to build a fund for longer term reform is not strong enough then the default position would be a 1% consolidated award to all chief officers, this would reward officers but fail to build the necessary flexibility for future workforce reform. 6

7 THE POLICING LANDSCAPE 1. Operational Context 1.1. Recorded Crime Crime statistics are either measured by the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) or by police recorded crime. The latest published statistics 1 show that to the end of June 2015 the CSEW estimated that there were 6.5 million incidents of crime against households and resident adults (aged 16 and over). This is an 8% decrease compared with the previous year s survey, and the lowest estimate since the CSEW began in The largest volume reduction in CSEW estimates was for the all theft offences category (which was down 8%) In terms of police recorded crime there was a 5% increase compared with the previous year, with 4.3 million offences recorded in the year ending June A large part of this rise is thought to be due to improved compliance with national recording standards by police forces in the last year. Figure 1: Trends in police recorded crime for England and Wales and Crime Survey for England and Wales, year ending December 1981 to year ending 2 June The CSEW estimate for violent crime showed no significant change compared with the previous year s survey. There was a rise in violence against the person offences

8 recorded by the police (up by 25%, or an additional 163,398 offences). This was driven by increases within the violence without injury sub-group which was up by 108,701 offences (a 33% increase). Such offences are thought to be prone to changes in recording practice. However, there were also increases in the more serious categories of police recorded violence including a 16% rise in violence with injury (up by 54,653 offences) Sexual offences recorded by the police continued to rise with the latest figures up 41% on the previous year; equivalent to an additional 27,602 offences. The numbers of rapes (31,621) and other sexual offences (63,861) being at the highest level since the introduction of the National Crime Recording Standard in 2002/03. As well as improvements in recording, this is also thought to reflect a greater willingness of victims to come forward to report such crimes There was an increase of 9% in the volume of fraud offences referred to the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau at the City of London Police. Nearly 600,000 offences were referred to NFIB including 237,494 offences reported by victims to Action Fraud (the UK s national fraud reporting centre), 266,701 referrals from Cifas (a UK-wide fraud prevention service) and 95,489 cases from FFA UK (that represents the UK payments industry). Figure 2: Selected victim-based police recorded crime offences in England and Wales: volumes and percentage change between year ending June 2014 and year ending June

9 1.2. The Changing Risk The cost of serious and organised crime to the UK was assessed in the past at 24 billion 5 and is now likely to be higher. Cybercrime is now estimated to cost Britain 27billion a year Technology has created a range of new opportunities for criminals. It has increased the number of ways some traditional crimes can be carried out and provided criminals with much more sophisticated enablers 6 in all threat areas. The sharing of indecent images of children, for example, is now almost entirely enabled by the internet. The threat from serious and organised crime is international. Commodities such as drugs, firearms and counterfeit goods are sourced from right across the world, and Organised Crime Groups (OCGs) often have a presence in multiple jurisdictions. The global communications infrastructure enables criminals to operate across geographic boundaries, to target the UK from a distance, or to reach from the UK into other countries Although serious and organised criminals, in most cases, will not want to be associated with extremists for fear of coming under additional scrutiny, there is a risk of extremists seeking to exploit criminal contacts, for example for financial and logistical support or to source firearms and false documents The National Threats A summary of the national priorities facing the country are summarised below: Child sexual exploitation and abuse represents one of the highest serious and organised crime risks. Although we may never know the full extent of the problem, law enforcement operations and high-profile cases have given us a much better insight into the scale and the challenges it presents. The risk from firearms remains high. They continue to enter the criminal market through a variety of means, including direct importation through post/fast parcels and thefts from legitimate firearms holders or dealers Home Office (2013) Understanding Organised Crime: Estimating the Scale and the Social and Economic Costs. Available at: 6 Enablers describe the tools and methods used by serious and organised criminals in order to pursue their criminality and include: criminal use of identity documents, professional enablers (such as solicitors and accountants) and Internet Communications Technology, etc. 9

10 The risk from organised immigration crime, human trafficking and modern slavery has increased. The volume of migrants attempting to enter the UK illegally continues to grow and to fuel increasing labour exploitation. The risk from criminal exploitation of the internet and related technology remains high and continues to develop. The cybercrime marketplace presents a particular threat. Money laundering is now considered a high-priority risk in its own right. It is essential for the realisation of criminal proceeds across almost all types of serious and organised crime and its sheer scale presents a strategic threat to the UK s economy and reputation. High-end money laundering, in particular, is a major risk. Bribery and corruption (including the laundering of the proceeds of corruption, for example by Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs)) is a critical enabler to all criminality types and damages the UK economy. Fraud continues to cost the UK billions of pounds and remains a high priority. As more government services go online and the UK becomes an increasingly cashless society, the opportunities for cyber-enabled fraud will increase and attract growing criminal interest. The social and economic costs due to heroin and cocaine are still severe. During 2015 it is expected that supplies of cocaine and amphetamine will remain stable with demand for cocaine increasing. All cross-cutting threats and vulnerabilities play an important part in most serious and organised crime. False identity is used to get illegal migrants into the UK to commit fraud and to provide anonymity online; drugs, firearms and laundered money exploit border vulnerabilities; foreign nationals are involved in all types of serious and organised crime and can be difficult to track; and serious and organised criminals continue their criminality from prison As of December 2014, organised crime group mapping identified around 5,800 organised crime groups. Serious and organised criminals continue to operate mainly in loose networks working with others based on trust and reputation. Structured hierarchical groups are often based on familial ties. Both loose networks and structured groups frequently have international links or cross ethnic boundaries. Due to the transnational nature of the internet, a feature of cyber criminality impacting on the UK is that the groups or networks responsible are often entirely located outside the UK The Terrorist Threat Currently the threat level to the United Kingdom from international terrorism is at Severe - this means that a terrorist attack is highly likely. The threat to Great Britain from Northern Irish terrorism is Moderate - this means that a terrorist attack is possible but not likely. 10

11 The attacks around the world over the last 12 months highlight the very real threat from terrorists. In October Sir Andrew Parker, Director General of the Security Agency MI5, warned that Islamic State (Daesh) terrorists are planning mass casualty attacks in Britain and that the threat level was the highest he had seen in his career. He also commented that six terror plots had been thwarted in the UK in the last 12 months and seven abroad As the threat has increased so the steps taken by all those working in the counter terrorist field have had to develop. Police officers play a significant role in all strands of the counter terrorist strategy (CONTEST 8 ) whether working with individuals at risk of radicalisation, developing intelligence and investigating terrorist activity, safeguarding children who are at risk of being taken to war affected parts of the world and protecting and providing an armed response to a terrorist attack Demand on the Police The first national picture of the breadth and complexity of the work undertaken by the police was published by the College of Policing at the start of The analysis showed the incoming and ongoing work of the police and suggested an increasing amount of police time was directed towards public protection work such as managing high-risk offenders and protecting victims who are at risk and often vulnerable. These cases are often extremely challenging and rightly require considerable amounts of police resource The analysis showed that in the past five years the number of police officers had fallen by 11 per cent. On a typical day in a typical force there was approximately one officer on duty for every 1,753 people living in a force area. Officers in that force made 50 arrests, dealt with 101 anti-social behaviour incidents, responded to approximately 12 missing person reports, carried out 37 stop and searches, dealt with 9 road traffic collisions, and responded to 14 incidents flagged as being linked to mental health issues In addition to reacting to calls for service from the public, the police service will also be supporting 2,700 families enrolled in the troubled families programme, supporting approximately 1,600 domestic abuse victims, 1,000 children subject to Child Protection Plans and managing 1,189 sexual and violent offenders in partnership with other local bodies The College of Policing analysis also indicated there were emerging pressures on police resilience namely decreased levels of police visibility and increasing requests for mutual aid. It also showed that incidents involving people with mental health issues

12 appeared to be increasing. In some forces, public safety and concern for welfare incidents represented the largest category of recorded incidents. Figure 3: Statements on demands on policing - Infographic There are consistent estimates from forces that provided data on the proportion of incidents linked to mental health. The MPS, West Yorkshire, Dorset and Avon and Somerset all estimated that approximately 2% of incidents reported to the police in a year were linked to mental health. If this proportion is applied to the national data it would suggest that an estimated 390,000 incidents in 2012/13 were linked to mental health. However, it is likely that this figure is an underestimate due to inconsistent use of the qualifier. Further work undertaken by the MPS for the Independent Commission for

13 Mental Health and Policing 10 estimated that 15%-20% of incidents are linked to mental health. Following work to improve the use of its mental health qualifier, Staffordshire police saw an increase in the number of incidents from 79 in Jan-Feb 2012 to 1,030 in Jan-Feb 2013.Using the MPS estimate of 20% provides a national estimate of almost 4m mental health related incidents. The estimated range of 2% - 20% of incidents having a mental health link suggests that further work is required to establish this source of demand A number of forces provided data on Child Sexual Exploitation (CSE) cases. The Metropolitan Police Service has seen the number of CSE referrals increase from 445, in the period 1st April th September 2013, to 1,442 over the same period in Hertfordshire Police reported that the number of recorded Child Sexual Exploitation (CSE) cases increased from 95 in 2012/13 to 127 in 2013/14. West Midlands Police received 1,027 reports of child sexual abuse in 2012/13, 400 were non-familial. Police specifically identified 245 victims of CSE, and 218 suspects The analysis of force incident data showed that in 2010, Lancashire, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire recorded a total of 616,081 Public Safety and Welfare (PSW) incidents; by 2013 this had increased to 686,953 (an 11.5% increase) or an additional 6 PSW incidents per officer (8 per constable). West Yorkshire has experienced the clearest growth in absolute number of PSW calls an increase of 57,019 (closed as PSW) between 2009 and 2013 while South Yorkshire and Lancashire have seen some variation but the same general upward trend. This trend goes against a decrease in the number of calls overall Summary of Operational Findings Traditional victim based crime has reduced to historically low levels but many forces are seeing recent increases, some of this will be down to crime recording changes. There have been significant rises in crimes linked to vulnerability, many of which are non-recent. Safeguarding activity for the police and partners has increased significantly in recent years. Although crime levels have reduced national analysis indicates that demand on the police from calls for service have increased. This is due to non-crime related demand. The threat from serious organised crime is better understood, is becoming increasingly global in nature and more complex. More crime is cyber enabled 10 Independent Commission on Mental Health and Policing Report (2013) 11 West Midlands Police (2013) Problem Profile of Child Sexual Exploitation 13

14 The changing nature of crime and demand has implications for the skills and knowledge of our staff. 2. Organisational Context 2.1. National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC) As highlighted in paragraph 1.6 of the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) submission to PRRB in 2015, ACPO was replaced by NPCC on 1 st April The business of NPCC is to co-ordinate national activities through twelve committees, each led by a chief constable. Pay and conditions are considered within the Workforce Coordination Committee NPCC works closely with the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners (APCC) and the Home Office in co-ordinating and leading on national policy issues. In terms of the workforce the NPCC works closely with the College of Policing but also has a distinct and separate role in co-ordinating the responsibilities of chief constables as employers National Design Advisory Group (NDAG) The National Debate Advisory Group was convened in November 2014 to support a national debate on the future of policing as recommended in HMIC s report, Policing in Austerity: Meeting the Challenge 12. The report considered the operational and financial pressures on policing and suggested a possible new framework for policing where: Local, frontline services accessible to communities provide a 24/7 response; neighbourhood policing focused on problem solving that protects people and prevents bad things from happening and getting communities involved; and local crime investigations. Frontline services (including the safeguarding of vulnerable people and the management of offenders) are provided collaboratively with other local public services involved in community safety, working to a common set of outcomes as part of partnership arrangements. These arrangements should include the ability to share and prioritise time, money and people to achieve effective local outcomes. Specialist capabilities (such as those within the Strategic Policing Requirement) and areas of operational and criminal justice support are consolidated into cross-force functions, strategically located and operating to national standards. The most highly specialised capabilities (such as counter-terrorism) should be provided nationally. This would minimise the number of locations required to support an effective police service; allow capabilities common to different policing activities to be deployed flexibly; and 12 Policing in Austerity: Meeting the Challenge, HM Inspectorate of Constabulary, July 2014, 14

15 preserve access to capabilities for all forces without losing the ability to deploy rapidly on the basis of threat, risk and harm. Different arrangements for cross-force working will be appropriate depending on the nature of the participating forces. For example, in some areas a larger force might provide the location for these capabilities on behalf of the participating forces, whereas in others, shared capabilities might be added to existing arrangements such as regional organised crime units (ROCUs). This will require further work based on local circumstances and should be an iterative process, focusing first on those areas of specialist capability which should only be provided on a cross-force basis. Business support functions are provided through greater economies of scale that reflect local circumstances, recognising the opportunities to build scale through local partners, other forces and/or with the private sector. Robust accountability for the maintenance of an efficient and effective local police service continues to sit with local police leaders and police and crime commissioners (or mayors where appropriate). This means it would be necessary to create arrangements that span local services and cross-force/national functions which allow local leaders to assure themselves that the totality of the police service provided to the public in their areas is efficient and effective. These arrangements should build on the experience of existing mechanisms such as those within the NCA Structural Reform and Specialist Capabilities The Home Secretary has made it clear throughout her tenure that she will not redesign police force structures in a top down approach. If two or more forces wish to come together and are able to present a sound business case then she will consider options for mergers In a speech to the Police Reform Summit 13 the Home Secretary described the debate no longer being about structures, but about the capabilities that policing needs to counter the new and complex threats. She also raised the question about where those capabilities best sit and how they are best delivered, drawing on the recommendations from the NDAG report. She indicated that some of the police settlement would be targeted to invest in cross-force specialist capabilities, to exploit new technology and to improve how policing responds to changing threats The Home Secretary welcomed the steps taken by NPCC and APCC to establish a programme board to oversee how specialist capabilities are delivered nationally. A Police Reform Board will also co-ordinate all of the strands of reform relating to enabling services (including funding), workforce, digital and specialist capabilities. This is yet to be established

16 The HMIC report into Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCU) 14 published in December 2015 set out the progress to establish units at a regional level to provide effective capabilities to support forces and provide a link with the National Crime Agency. The recommendations supported the value of ROCUs and the need to build capabilities at a cross force level, sharing these with the counter terrorist network where appropriate Police Efficiency The success of policing in responding to both the operational and financial challenges is summarised in the HMIC Valuing the Police reports 15 and the HMIC Police Efficiency 2015 report 16 (published in October 2015). In the latter document HMI Mike Cunningham commented: There is no doubt that police forces have been through change on an unprecedented scale since 2010 and it is a tribute to the leadership of the police service and to officers, PCSOs and staff in all forces that the service has, on the whole, been able to absorb that change while measured crime has continued to fall and public satisfaction with the police has been maintained The report went on to highlight the need for a greater understanding of demand, more focus on capability of staff as well as capacity and continued innovation and transformation of policing models, particularly around the use of ICT. The report also reiterated the findings of the NDAG report around the need for greater collaboration and the layering of policing services Summary of Organisational Findings The 43 police force structure will remain however there will be an increasing move towards the layering of policing services at the most appropriate level (national, cross force or local). There will be an increased focus on how specialist capabilities are delivered and the skills that are needed by staff Page 4 of HMIC: Police Efficiency

17 Police forces have responded well to austerity and operational demands, but the need for transformation and innovative use of technology will intensify in future years. 3. Financial Context 3.1. Between 2010/11 and 2015/16, central government funding for the police service in England and Wales was reduced by 2.3bn (25 per cent in real terms, or 1.7bn (19 percent in cash terms). In the HMIC PEEL report into Police Efficiency it concluded that forces had managed this challenge well, making the required spending reductions and balancing their budgets. The total police workforce had fallen by 37,000 from March 2010 to March 2015, with reductions in officer numbers of 16,900, in PCSOs of 4,600 and staff of 15,500. It reported that to make these reductions in officer numbers, forces concentrated on reducing or freezing recruitment, rather than losing officers through voluntary severance routes At that time HIMC reported that forces were planning prudently for similar reductions in the future, namely by 1.9bn from 2015/16 to 2018/19 (15 percent of 2014/15 gross revenue expenditure (GRE)). Most savings were planned to come from pay costs. Figure 4: Index of police funding, workforce and crime from 1995/96 to 2014/15 (1995/96 = 100) 17

18 3.3. The Chancellor of the Exchequer initially indicated that all non-protected departments should plans for cuts to budget of either 25% or 40%. Forces therefore adjusted assumptions that had previously been set in February 2015 and developed proposals for the potential cut to government grant. Various documents and comments set out the operational risks associated with this level of budget reduction and also the challenges in being able to realise the savings, given the proportion of budget spent on staff It was therefore a great relief, and surprise, when the Chancellor announced in the Spending Review and Autumn Statement that the police budget would be protected. The government set out that it would protect overall police spending in line with inflation an increase of 900 million by It also added that: Additional funding will also be provided for forces who have strong proposals to support efficiency and reform. The National Crime Agency s budget will also be protected in cash terms to help cut organised crime. Funding will also allow forces to adapt to changing crime threats and train more firearms officers to make sure the country can be protected from terrorist threats. 1 billion will also be spent on 4G communications for police forces and other emergency services, allowing officers to take mobile fingerprints and electronic witness statements On 17 th December 2015 the written Ministerial Statement 19 on the provisional police funding formula 2016/17 was published. This set out the funding available for policing over the spending review period and also the individual allocations to forces for 2016/

19 15/16* ( m) 16/17 ( m) 17/18 ( m) 18/19 m) 19/20 ( m) Change ( m) Cash change (%) Real change (%) Government Funding (excl CT) o/w Home Office 8,271 8,378 8,497 8,631 8, % -1.4% 8,099 8,204 8,321 8,453 8, % -1.4% o/w DCLG % -7.2% o/w Welsh Government % -1.4% Precept 3,105 3,194 3,286 3,379 3, % 3.8% Total 11,376 11,572 11,783 12,010 12, % 0.0% Table 1: The 2015 Spending Review settlement for the police 3.6. The headlines from the 2016/17 statement are: The cut to formula funding will be a uniform 0.6% No PCC will face a cash reduction in direct resource funding if they maximise precept income 20 There will be reallocations totalling 218m for Direct Entry, Emergency Services Network, IPCC, Innovation Fund, Major Programmes and Special Grant There will be a new Police Transformation Fund worth 76m made up of a 34m firearms uplift, 4.6m for digital justice/digital investigation and 37.8m as yet unallocated 3.7. The 2015 submission to PRRB highlighted the differential impact of government grant reduction on forces (given the variations in local precept). In July 2015 the Home Office consulted on proposals 21 to change the way that funding is allocated to forces. The consultation exercise was halted in November and will be recommenced in 2016 and, at 20 This assumes that PCCs in England increase their precept to the maximum referendum limit in 2016/17, PCCs in Wales raise council tax by 2% and tax base growth of 0.5% across England and Wales olice_funding_consultation_doc.pdf 19

20 this stage, it is proposed that a new funding formula will be implemented for the 2016/17 settlement. This produces some uncertainty for individual force budget plans One consequence of the significant change to the financial planning assumptions is that data provided by forces to support this submission is now inaccurate. It is unlikely that forces will be in a position to provide clarity on the budgets and workforce numbers until after February 2016 and even then only provide certainty for the first year Although the budget settlement for policing is much better than had been anticipated it does not signal the end of austerity for policing or the need for reform. The changes to operational priorities, the need to invest in new technology and other capabilities and other inflationary pressures mean that forces must continue the transformational reform that was already being planned. What is does provide, is the opportunity to retain policing services that might have been threatened had significant budget cuts been imposed. Workforce reform will play a key part in that transformational programme Summary of Financial Findings Police funding reduced by 25% in real terms between 2010 and 2016, though the impact on individual forces varied due to reliance on government grant. Forces had been preparing for similar reductions until 2020 but police budget was protected at current levels in the spending review (as long as precept levels were increased at maximum permissible levels). This significant change in outlook from previous assumptions meant that accurate workforce predictions for this submission were difficult to obtain. 4. THE WORKFORCE 4.1. The Workforce Context Information about the workforce is collected on an annual basis by the Home Office 22 and as part of the data collection for the Efficiency report by HMIC. The latest headline figures indicate that police officer numbers reduced again in 2014/15 and on 31 st March 2015 were 126,818 in the 43 police forces, a decrease of 1091 or 0.9% compared to the previous year. This was the sixth consecutive fall and the lowest number since

21 Figure 5: Change in the number of police officers, as at 31 March 2006 to 2015, compared with the previous 12 months, England and Wales Officer numbers rose in 13 forces over the last twelve months. Of these forces, Bedfordshire (54 officers or 5.3%) had the largest increase in percentage terms, whilst the Metropolitan Police had the largest numerical increase (946 officers or 3.1%). Officer numbers decreased in the remaining 30 forces. Durham (-119 officers or -9.3%) fell the most in percentage terms, whilst Greater Manchester (-294 officers or -4.2%) experienced the largest numerical decrease The Metropolitan Police had the most officers, accounting for 25.1% of all officers across the 43 forces on 31 March The 8 metropolitan forces (City of London, Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Metropolitan Police, Northumbria, South Yorkshire, West Midlands and West Yorkshire) comprised 48.2%of all officers (up from 47.8% in 2014) It should be noted that some changes between forces can occur when regional or collaborated units are established and are hosted by one force and officers are transferred from neighbouring forces (for example ROCUs). 21

22 Figure 6: Police officers, percentage change between March 2014 and March 2015, England and Wales 1. Avon and Somerset 12. Dyfed-Powys 23. Lincolnshire 34. Staffordshire 2. Bedfordshire 13. Essex 24. Merseyside 35. Suffolk 3. Cambridgeshire 14. Gloucestershire 25. Metropolitan Police and City of London 36. Surrey 4. Cheshire 15. Greater Manchester 26. Norfolk 37. Sussex 5. City of London (see 25) 16. Gwent 27. North Wales 38. Thames Valley 6. Cleveland 17. Hampshire 28. North Yorkshire 39. Warwickshire 7. Cumbria 18. Hertfordshire 29. Northamptonshire 40. West Mercia 8. Derbyshire 19. Humberside 30. Northumbria 41. West Midlands 9. Devon and Cornwall 20. Kent 31. Nottinghamshire 42. West Yorkshire 10. Dorset 21. Lancashire 32. South Wales 43. Wiltshire 11. Durham 22. Leicestershire 33. South Yorkshire 22

23 The numbers of officers at each rank continues to reduce as shown below, with the exception of the superintendent rank which shows an increase of 57 between 2014 and However, this increase should be set against the numbers in 2010 (1031) and the reduction in chief superintendents. Table 1: Police workforce, by rank, as at 31 March 2015, England and Wales Full-time equivalent Number 31/03/10 Number 31/03/14 Number 31/3/15 Chief Officers Chief Superintendent Superintendent 1, Chief Inspectors 1,975 1, Inspectors 7,242 5, Sergeants 23,103 19, Constables 109,713 99, The number of chief constables is obviously fixed, but the mix of DCCs and ACCs working in provincial forces has changed given the increasing arrangements for cross force collaboration. Many forces now have DCCs and / or ACCs who have a cross force or regional responsibility. The analysis completed by Hay Group (referred to in Paragraph 6.6 and commissioned by CPOSA) does start to distinguish between two sizes of ACC roles a job focused on the force and a larger role which has responsibilities across two or more forces The numbers of all worker types have fallen between 31 March 2014 and 31 March 2015 as shown in the below figure. 23

24 Figure: Police workforce, by type of police worker and special constables, as at 31 March 2014 and 2015, England and Wales 4.2. Gender There were 35,738 female police officers in the 43 police forces on 31 March 2015, an increase of 85 (0.2%) compared with a year earlier. The proportion of female police officers in the 43 forces has increased in recent years, from 22.3% in 2006 to 28.2% in The proportion of those in senior ranks (i.e. chief inspector and above) who were women was 21.4% (up by 1.9 percentage points since March 2014), compared with 30.2% of women at constable rank (up by 0.1 percentage point since March 2014) At chief officer level the breakdown of male and female post holders, by rank, in November 2015 (including temporary positions in England and Wales) was as follows: ACC / Commander DCC / DAC CC (or equivalent) Male Female

25 Figure 7: Proportion of police officers who are female, as at 31 March 2006 to 2015, 4.3. Ethnicity There were 6,979 Minority Ethnic police officers in the 43 forces on 31 March 2015, an increase of 265 or 3.9% compared with a year earlier. The proportion of Minority Ethnic police officers has increased in recent years, from 3.6% in 2006 to 5.5% in 2015, this is still well below the economically active population. Senior ranks (i.e. chief inspector or above) had a lower proportion of Minority Ethnic officers compared to constables across the 43 police forces. For example, 3.4% of chief inspectors or above were Minority Ethnic, compared with 6.0% at constable rank As the number of police has reduced and focus has been applied to the role that they fill, the percentage of officers in operational frontline roles has increased as shown by the table below There are only 4 chef officers from a BME background, including one officer from a BME background at the equivalent rank of chief constable. This equates to a representation level of 2%. 25

26 Figure 8: Proportion of police officers who are Minority Ethnic, as at 31 March 2006 to 2015, England and Wales 4.4. Recruitment In the 12 months to 31 March 2015, 6,432 police officers joined the 43 police forces, accounting for 5.1% of officers, a rise of 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous year (Table 5a). Transfers between these forces comprised 11.8% of joiners. The HMIC Value for Money profiles in demonstrate the range that joiners represent in the percentage of the total workforce (from over 10% to virtually 0%). The figures and percentages have actually increased from , however this is distorted by increased recruitment in the MPS (who increased FTE police officer recruits from 2330 in 2013/14 to 3079 in 2014/15) In terms of chief officer recruitment information has been collected from 25 forces by CPOSA covering the period from April 2015 to 31 October Responses were received from 25 forces (only 14 of those had carried out a process in that period). The information gives a snapshot as to the numbers of officers applying for positions and whether they were external or internal to the force

27 Role Total number of processes Total number of applications Single Applications Average number of applications Total number of external applications Total number of internal application CC / commissioner or equivalent DCC / DAC or equivalent ACC or Commander Totals Entry Routes into Policing Direct Entry to Superintendent 25 As of December candidates from cohort one and 6 candidates from cohort 2 are progressing through Direct Entry for Superintendent programme. The entry requirements are set out on the College of Policing website Fast Track Constable to Inspector Fast Track is an accelerated three-year promotion and development programme which gives the most talented graduates the skills, knowledge and experience to advance to the rank of inspector from police constable within three years. The fast track (Internal) 27 PC to Inspector programme remains available and unchanged. The window for the 2016/17 intake (cohort 2) closed on 23 November. The Fast Track External programme has stopped for 2016 while the College reviews entry points into policing as part of the recommendations of the Leadership Review including the introduction of Direct Entry Inspector Direct Entry Inspector The intention is for the first cohort of DE Inspectors to start on the programme in October Details of the scheme are currently being developed Programme/Pages/Direct-Entry-Programme.aspx 26 Superintendent/Documents/Direct_Entry_18_month_programme.pdf

28 Interest in Direct Entry & Fast Track As of 23 November 2015: 3 forces have indicated interest in 3 DE Superintendent posts 8 forces have indicated interest in DE Inspector posts 3 forces have indicated interest in 6 Fast Track (External) PC to Inspector officers Police Now 28 Police Now started in the Metropolitan Police Force but has now extended to seven police forces and successful applicants could be placed in any one of them. The Forces include MPS, Cheshire Constabulary, Lancashire Constabulary, Northamptonshire Police, Surrey Police, Thames Valley Police and West Midlands Police. Police Now's Leadership Development Programme is a carefully designed two-year programme. To foster the next generation of leaders it combines training with hands-on responsibility for improving people's lives Appointment of chief officers from overseas From 1 st October 2014 Regulations changed to enable chief officers to be appointed from certain overseas countries and specified posts. The list was based on research carried out by the College of Policing to identify those forces that operate in a common-law jurisdiction and practice policing by consent. Only those who have experience of serving in a senior rank that is the equivalent to chief officer ranks in England and Wales in forces of 750 or more sworn personnel will be eligible to apply. In addition to their experience in those ranks, candidates should also have a record of exceptional achievement. Those who are appointed will need to meet all immigration and vetting requirements. There have been no appointments from overseas to date Leavers In the 12 months to 31 March 2015, 6,988 police officers left the 43 police forces, representing a wastage rate (number of police officers leaving as a proportion of officers in post) of 5.5%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous year. Transfers between these forces accounted for 10.2% of leavers. Of the leaving officers, 22.2% were female and 4.1% were Minority Ethnic. North Wales had the lowest wastage rate for the year (4.2%), followed by West Midlands (4.3%) and the Metropolitan Police (4.3%). Durham had the highest wastage rate (10.6%), followed by Northamptonshire (8.2%) and Kent (8.2%)

29 The HMIC Value for Money Profiles 29 show the breakdown by force of leavers and joiners. Although there is variation between forces the rates are comparable across years and, as commented upon in the 2015 submission, do not give rise for concern at this stage A snapshot of leaver s data from 21 forces (see Annex A) shows that the majority of officers leave the service due to retirement followed by resignation and then medical retirement. Again, the turnover rate does not appear to be increasing. Further analysis of this sample shows that, of those officers who are leaving through non-retirement, the age profile is as follows: 600 Age of Leavers (Non-Retirement) / / Severance In October 2015, voluntary severance had been used or was being considered in 5 forces. These were: Durham Constabulary (41 officers in 2014/15 plus 10 planned for 2015/16) Gwent (recently closed 84 applicants) Lancashire (recently closed no detail known at this time) Metropolitan Police Service (considered) Staffordshire (scheme operated in 2013 and officers left)

30 Changes to the Public Sector Payment Exit Cap was consulted on in 2015 and will have the impact of limiting exit payment to 95,000 for all but excluded public sector workers (these do not include police officers and police staff). It will reduce the financial burden on organisations for those leaving the service through severance but will also limit the incentive for individuals to opt for voluntary severance. This is particularly likely to reduce the numbers of officers with service and/or rank who apply for severance A paper on the need for compulsory severance was considered at Chief Constables Council in October Chief constables carefully considered the issue for police officers in light of the likelihood of further significant cuts to police budgets. A decision was taken that Chief constables preferred approach was to continue to modernise terms and conditions of both officers and staff. On the information known at that stage, chief constables decided not to seek to revisit the Police Arbitration Tribunal decision on compulsory severance from Given the spending review announcement the decision will not be reviewed Attendance The HMIC VFM profiles show that the numbers of officers on sick leave as a percentage of the workforce has increased from 2014 to % of total police officer workforce 2013/ /15 Long term sickness Short/Medium term sickness As mentioned in last year s submission there are concerns about the reliability of the data supplied as part of the Annual Data Return and as a consequence sickness is not included in the workforce statistical bulletin As has been seen in previous years, sickness data can fluctuate from year to year due to a range of factors so, at this stage, the increase shown above should be monitored to see if it indicates a more significant trend In terms of chief officer attendance, no separate information is available. Generally sickness levels are low in chief officer ranks, however there have been a few instances in recent years of long term absence which will distort figures Morale As mentioned in the last submission to PRRB forces an increasing number of forces are now working with Durham University Business School to undertake staff surveys. The 30

31 advantage of this approach is that the surveys are based on academic research, will allow a longitudinal study of individual attitudes and will allow, subject to force agreement, comparison between forces Early experience suggests that asking questions about perceived organisational support, public service motivation, emotional energy, commitment and extra mile behaviours are a better indication of staff attitudes, motivation and well-being. At this stage 18 forces have committed to the Durham survey. Unfortunately only limited results were available in time for this submission These surveys are unlikely to provide much information about chief officer motivation, however, CPOSA have completed an online survey of members which is more likely to indicate trends in morale amongst chief officers Wellbeing The work on Wellbeing has progressed since the last submission. An NPCC working group was established and has focussed on the launch of the Workplace Wellbeing Charter, negotiated with Professor Dame Carol Black and Dr Justin Varney from Public Health England. Two 'Getting Started' events, as set out in the working group's strategy (Figure 9 below), were held at Portishead in Avon & Somerset and Wakefield in West Yorkshire. Both events were very well attended Since these events were held a number of consultations and visits have been made to help support forces with Wellbeing and engagement. These include Greater Manchester Police, PSoS, Surrey, Gwent Police, North Wales, Nottinghamshire, Devon & Cornwall, PSNI and the Isle of Man. A series of workshops have also been held throughout the College of Policing sites, entitled 'The Criticality of Wellbeing' which have also been very well attended Presentations have also been made at the Superintendents Association conference, the CIPD Police Forum Conference, the Attendance Management Forum, Association of Police and Crime Commissioners, NARPO 30 conference and at various national academic police partnership events (N8, Open University Consortium, UCLaN) as well as professional groups. 30 National Association of Retired Police Officers 31

32 Figure 9 - The NPCC Coordinating Committee for Workforce - Wellbeing and Engagement Working Group Priorities The working group has established a network of interested academic partners across the UK in a move to coordinate many of the wellbeing initiatives being carried out by individual and collaborative force efforts and to collate the evidence base of interventions as per the working group objectives. Working relationships have been formed with research being carried out at Universities of Sussex, Portsmouth, Durham, Lancaster, Canterbury Christchurch, Anglia Ruskin, Cambridge, Open University, Leeds, Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle and Sheffield and the Scottish Institute of Policing Research A further edition of the successful Wellbeing Toolkit is also being developed Summary of Workforce Findings Workforce numbers continued to reduce in However the rate of loss of police officers was less than in previous years. Chief officer numbers reduced only marginally in Recruitment of chief officers in 2015 has produced several occasions when only one individual has applied for the role, this is more likely at higher ranks. Turnover rates for police officers have increased slightly but are still are low. The majority of officers leave due to retirement or transfer to another force. 32

33 The quality of national data around attendance levels is poor. HMIC data suggests that both short and long term sickness levels have risen in the last year and this should be monitored to see if this is a longer trend or a single year movement. The service is placing greater emphasis on wellbeing and is working closely with academic institutions. 5. Workforce Reform 5.1. Future Options for Change In the last submission Chapter 9 set out a possible framework for reward in the future. In summary the key points were: A basic national pay structure there is no desire to move away from a national pay structure for police officers. Local supplements policing needs a national framework with the flexibility to reflect local needs through a market uplift or supplement. Link between pay and contribution officers should only receive pay progression if they demonstrate satisfactory performance. Link between pay and competence officers should be rewarded for additional competence Link between pay and specialist skills officers will require particular skills and qualifications relevant to a specific post that could attract remuneration to a higher level than the next rank Review of increments the introduction of other changes as mentioned above would mean that a review of automatic annual increment rises would be inevitable. This would allow a fairer and more appropriate pay structure to be introduced. Consolidate allowances review to consolidate into basic pay, to remove as a result of other changes or to remain to recognise the unpredictable, difficult or dangerous work of officers. Consistency between police staff and officers where appropriate as the police workforce becomes increasingly integrated and reform of terms and conditions is explored for officers and staff, fairness and consistency (where appropriate) are guiding principles. 33

34 5.2. Update on Winsor Reform The following are brief updates of Winsor recommendations that are still being implemented / piloted and were raised in the last submission: The complex process of phased assimilation to new pay scales was begun at the end of the two year pay and progression freeze in April 2014 and will take until 2018 to complete. The phasing out of automatic pay progression will be completed for all ranks by 1 May From that point on, progression for all officers will be entirely conditional on achieving a satisfactory annual performance appraisal. The linkage of pay progression to performance was implemented for sergeants and chief inspectors as of 1 May From 1 May 2016, progression for constables will also cease to be automatic. Incremental pay progression currently represents an annual increase in pay of between 2% and 7%, depending on ranks and experience, with an associated rise in employer pension contributions and National Insurance payments. Work is also being taken forward by the College of Policing to develop Threshold Assessments, including Foundation Assessments for constables at point 3 on the pay scale. This will mean that officers must pass a competence assessment, including proof of continuous professional development, in order to progress to point 4. Together with the introduction of performance assessment standards, threshold assessments will make the first strong link between pay and competence and will drive increased professionalism through the inclusion of Continuous Professional Development elements in the assessment criteria. The new Foundation Threshold Assessments are due to be implemented from September The evaluation of the pilots is currently being carried out. Some original elements of threshold work are likely to be overtaken by Leadership Review recommendations, in particular the concept of an Advanced Practitioner status and the recommendation for a review of ranks and hierarchies (see paragraph 5.6). One of the concerns around the advanced threshold assessment (taken to enable an officer to rise from pay point 6 to 7) for constables is the large pay increment at that point ( 31,971 to 37,626). The 18% pay difference for advanced level constables is far greater than 3% pay increment available for inspectors completing the advanced threshold Reforming the Powers of Police Staff and Volunteers On 9 th September the Home Office consulted on reforming the powers of police staff and volunteers 31. The proposals would see chief officers being given the ability to 31 ltation_document_on_powers_of_police_staff_and_volunteers FINAL_.pdf 34

35 determine ways to designate powers and roles according to local requirements. The consultation also put forward a proposed list of powers that would only be available to police officers and could not be designated to police staff or volunteer roles The consultation comments are currently being considered Enabling Closer Working Between the Emergency Services On 11 th September 2015 the Home Office published a consultation 32 looking at how the three emergency services work together. The most significant issue for the workforce would be if, as proposed in the document, a Police and Crime Commissioner takes on the responsibilities of a fire and rescue authority, enabling them to create a single employer for police and fire staff. The question as to whether a chief police officer needs to have been a warranted constable was also posed, raising the possibility of chief fire officers becoming a chief officer of a combined emergency service The consultation comments are currently being considered Policing Education Qualification Framework (PEQF) The College of Policing are developing proposals for a Policing Education Qualifications Framework (PEQF) 33 intended to set minimum education qualification levels by rank or level of practice Five work streams have been identified within the programme of work: Communications and Engagement Recognition, Accreditation and Progression Initial Education Programmes Rank Qualifications (Sergeant to Superintendent) Policy, Evidence and Evaluation The proposals will include consideration of potential entry routes into the service, including a graduate qualification in policing; graduate conversion courses for graduates in other subjects; and Higher Level Apprenticeships In January 2016 the College of Policing will be publishing a Briefing & Consultation paper which will offer further information on the proposals for the PEQF together with an initial opportunity for all to offer views. The paper will offer context around the origin of 32 _Enabling_closer_working_between_the_Emergency_Services w 2_.pdf

36 the proposals, the rationale and drivers for them. The preliminary consultation will close at the end of February Views will then be analysed and a paper presented to College Board in April 16 seeking agreement to formal proposals A full programme of work would then be necessary to engage all key parties in the continued development of the framework Concurrently to the above activity, work will commence in early 2016 to map the major national learning programmes and seek a consensus probably via an emergent partnership with the Higher Education Forum for Policing as to what level of academic credits might be applied to each programme. This would be with a view to offering existing officers and staff who choose to do so to seek external academic accreditation for learning undertaken in policing College of Policing Leadership Review In June 2015 the College of Policing published the Leadership Review 34, just under a year after it had commenced. The Review attempted to answer four questions: What is the future context within which policing will operate in the next 10 to 15 years and beyond, and what specific challenges will this bring? What does this mean for future police leadership and the type of leaders needed? What changes therefore need to be made to select, train and develop the best future leaders? What cultural or structural barriers need to be removed? The Review identified five major trends affecting the future context for police leadership: Economic challenges Shifting demographics Rising citizen expectations Rapid technological advances The arrival of the internet as a social space To address the challenges presented by these trends the Review made 10 recommendations:

37 1. Existing police leaders should influence and drive the required culture change by demonstrating their own commitment to personal development and supporting the implementation of the review. 2. Review the rank and grading structures in policing across warranted and staff roles. 3. Embed the values articulated in the principles from the Code of Ethics in all local and national selection processes. 4. Provide a structure for entry, exit and re-entry points to allow for career flexibility. 5. Advertise all vacancies for recruitment and promotion nationally. 6. Create a new model of leadership and management training and development which is accessible to all within policing. 7. Increase flexibility in assigning powers and legal authorities to staff. 8. Develop career opportunities which allow recognition and reward for advanced practitioners. 9. Introduce national standards for recruitment and promotion into all roles, ranks and grades. 10. The Home Office should review whether existing structures, powers and authorities in policing are sufficient to support consistent implementation of these recommendations The recommendations continue to be considered and implemented and are overseen by a Leadership Review Oversight Group In terms of recommendation 2, this work is being led by NPCC and a paper will be presented to Chief Constables Council at the end of January 2016 and then the Oversight Group at the start of February. It will then be shared with the PRRB, together with any comments or recommendations from those presentations. The work details research and experience on the numbers of levels in a healthy organisation and how that applies to policing. It draws heavily on the research of Elliot Jaques 35 in terms of the numbers of levels that might apply in a force Clearly any review of ranks, and the other recommendations in the Leadership Review, will have a major role in shaping a future pay and reward framework for police officers. 35 Jaques main arguments are set out in his book Requisite Organisation. This was first published in 1989, but the revised 1998 edition is published by Cason Hall. 37

38 5.7. Workforce Futures The national lead for workforce futures within the NPCC workforce Coordination Committee (also a senior HR lead in MPS) will present the findings and recommendations for a future workforce framework in early This is the result of work commissioned by and for the MPS, but with a view to being relevant across policing. The framework will set out a vision for how the workforce might look and what levers exist to deliver the vision. It has concentrated on a timeframe to 2020 and draws heavily on the work being conducted by the College of Policing s Leadership Review and other national work around ranks, pay, entry and exit levels and career development. It covers the workforce lifecycle from attraction, development, reward and then to exit / re-entry Pension Changes The framework for new police pension arrangements commenced on 1st April In line with wider public service pension reform, this introduced career average pension arrangements and higher employee contribution rates (see previous submission for new rates) The new arrangements include a normal pension age of 60. Police officers will continue to retire earlier than most public servants, who will have a normal pension age linked to state pension age. The framework also includes continued flexibility for officers to be able to retire with an immediate pension from age 55, however with actuarial reduction in pension benefits Three pension schemes now apply to police officers: the Police Pension Scheme 1987 (PPS), which closed to new members on 6 April 2006; the New Police Pension Scheme 2006 (NPPS), which was available to all new entrants from 6 April 2006 and to any officers who chose to transfer from the PPS during a 2006 options exercise; and the Police Pension Scheme 2015, which has been available to members from 1 April The 1987 and 2006 schemes have closed except for those within 10 years of retirement, who are protected. They will be entitled to remain in their current police pension scheme beyond This applies to officers who, on 1st April 2012, were within 10 years of their normal pension age (age 55) in the NPPS or within 10 years of maximum pensionable service (30 years service) for those in the PPS. This means that almost all pensions in payment for the next 5-10 years will continue to be from the old schemes Of all the pay and condition changes over the last few years, the pension changes have probably had both the most significant long term financial impact for non- 38

39 protected officers and been least well received. Some officers have recently commenced employment tribunal and grievance procedures against chief constables to try to challenge the changes. An open letter from the Police Federation of England and Wales General Secretary 36 sets out an outline of the challenge and the fact that PFEW do not support the claim Tax Changes The changes to the tax arrangements for pensions will impact on higher earners given the restrictions to both lifetime and annual allowances. The Life Time Allowance (LTA) has reduced in recent years and from 6 th April 2016 it will be set at 1million (individuals are able to protect pension savings above that value subject to certain restrictions). The Annual Allowance (AA) also reduced from 50K to 40K from 6 th April This charge limits the tax free pension contributions in a given year. Individuals who have a large increase in salary can experience significant tax charges. This is particularly relevant for 1987 Police Pension Scheme members in their final 10 years when double increments accrue Despite the tax charges for LTA and AA the experience for individuals to date is that the financial benefits of promotion still outweigh the tax costs. The tax impact for individuals (in terms of AA) will reduce under the 2015 Pension and so this is an issue that is time limited. However, the recruitment and retention of chief officers will have to be monitored carefully to ensure that tax related issues do not restrict numbers Home Secretary s Direction in the PRRB Remit Letter for 2016/ In the remit letter to PRRB the Home Secretary outlines many of the issues set out in the preceding paragraphs. She states: I am particularly keen to support police leaders by giving them the tools they need to increase flexibility; allow movement in and out of policing; increase and introduce skills; and achieve a more diverse workforce mix as well as growing a culture of innovation and challenge. I remain committed to the programme of work that is being undertaken by the College of Policing in this respect. As you will be aware, the recent Review of Police Leadership has made recommendations on matters including the extension of direct entry, a review of ranks, roles and standards and linking skills and competence more strongly to pay. I would emphasise that this work is being driven forward by the police themselves, rather than from the top down This work is being taken forward by the service and the College of Policing. The developing picture will be available for the oral sessions but the detail will, hopefully, be available to inform the submission in

40 5.11. Summary of Workforce Reform Findings There are still some outstanding elements of the Winsor reforms that are being implemented (final assimilation of pay scales and increment link to satisfactory performance) or awaiting evaluation (threshold assessments) There are several proposals for workforce reform that will impact on the future model and framework for policing. A clear picture will not develop until the 2017 PRRB submission. The College of Policing work will help to inform a future reward framework. This includes; Policing Educational Qualification Framework, the Leadership Review and a skills capability gap assessment. A review of the ranks and grades in policing (Recommendation 2 of the review) will report in early 2016 and make recommendations about the levels required in policing. This will then be used to inform rank and grade structure for the future. The Metropolitan Police Service commissioned Deloitte to develop a workforce framework suitable for MPS and the service. It will report in early 2016, will build on the national work mentioned above and identify levers for change to support implementation by Pension changes were implemented on , protection arrangements exist based on service and / or age. The tax changes for pensions (Lifetime and Annual Allowances) affect chief officers, particularly those on the 1987 and 2006 pension schemes. The Home Secretary expects the police to continue to develop options for workforce reform that will inform future reward decisions Proposals The remit letter to the PRRB asked that recommendations about the following issues be put forward for 2016/17: 1. How to apply the pay award for , in accordance with CST s letter, including the consideration of parties evidence on the targeting of particular groups; 2. Whether any adjustments should be made to London and South East allowances in light of further evidence put forward by employers; 40

41 6.1. Pay Proposals The government set out its expectation that the pay award would be targeted to support service delivery and to address recruitment and retention pressures. Therefore forces were asked to identify those positions where there are either recruitment or retention difficulties Recruitment The national employment figures continue to show increased levels of employment since 2010, with the latest quarter showing a peak of 74%. UK Employment rate (aged 16 to 64), seasonally adjusted August to October 2010 to August to October In terms of chief officer recruitment it has already been found that applicant numbers for chief officer positions are low. However there are likely to be several possible reasons for this including: family reasons, cost of housing, perception of openness of competition, role requirements, geography etc. Clearly issues such as cost of living in certain parts of the country (most notably London and the south east) could be mitigated by pay, however there is insufficient information at this time to say, with confidence, that general recruitment into chief officer posts will be addressed through pay. There is a recognition by all in the service that the low number of applicants needs to be improved and this needs to be part of the reform work in Source: Labour Force Survey - Office for National Statistics 41

42 DCCs and ACCs (and equivalent ranks) are paid according to national payscales and there is no flexibility for variation (for example Regulations require all ACCs / Commanders to start at the bottom pay point). There is the option for PCCs to offer pay flexibility plus / minus 10% of the spot pay for chief constables and some advertisements have recently indicated that range. PCCs and CCs are also able to include additional benefits and these vary across the country (for example removal expenses, car allowance etc.) Meeting the representation figures (particularly for Black and Minority Ethnic Candidates) both nationally and locally is challenging, but targeted use of pay would not be appropriate to meet this aim There is limited evidence that pay should be targeted at the recruitment stage General Retention Leavers information shown in paragraph 4.6 does not indicate that there is a problem with general turnover in the police. Leaver rates are still about 5% nationally, with voluntary resignations at 2% (many of which will be transfers between forces) The Chancellor has already announced 38 that public sector pay will be capped at 1% for the next four years. This is on the back of two years of no annual increment and then two years capped at 1%. Although this has been broadly in line with average earnings growth rates until 2014, in the last 12 months regular pay has increased by 2% 39 (see Figure 10) and a potential widening of a pay gap (where one exists) will need to be monitored Chief officers leave forces, almost exclusively, for one of three reasons: retirement, transfer / promotion or dismissal / resignation (low numbers) There is limited flexibility for PCCs and CCs to offer incentives to remain in post, particularly when officers reach a point where they are able to retire. Tax implications on pensions are likely to be or have been a significant factor for many chief officers leaving the service (and will be so for officers on the 1987 or 2006 Police Pension Scheme). Officers are rarely discouraged from seeking promotion opportunities across forces At this time there is limited evidence to suggest that pay should be targeted to address general retention of chief officers within the service Between August to October 2014 and August to October 2015 in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation) regular pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.1% and total pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.4% 42

43 Figure 10: Great Britain average earnings annual growth rates, seasonally adjusted August to October 2010 to August to October Role or Post Specific Recruitment and Retention Given the nature of chief officer roles, there is no evidence to suggest that there are specific posts (within a team) that are difficult to recruit into Inflationary Pressures and the Cost of Living The prices that households pay for the goods and services they buy remain largely unchanged on a year ago. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) which measures these changes shows that prices increased by 0.1% in the year to November Although the rate of inflation has risen from a 0.1% fall in the year to October, the November rate continues the trend of negligible inflation experienced by the UK during Calculating an average inflation rate for the year to date gives a figure of 0.0% While the headline rate of inflation remains negligible, each household s personal rate of inflation will depend on the products they buy. For example, prices for food and motor fuels continue to fall on the year, whereas rents and restaurant and hotel bills are rising. The impact of food and fuel has a significant impact on the CPI rate as shown in figure The main upward push on inflation between October and November 2015 (causing it to increase slightly from a 0.1% fall to a 0.1% rise) came from price movements for 40 Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey - Office for National Statistics 43

44 transport costs, and alcohol and tobacco. Prices fell between October and November in both of these categories but they fell by less than between the same 2 months a year ago. For example, petrol prices fell by 1.5 pence per litre this year compared with a 3.0 pence per litre fall a year ago. Figure 11: Contribution of food and motor fuel to the CPI rate of inflation: January 2007 to November If one takes a one year assessment of inflationary pressure on the cost of living for officers then the above would suggest that the individual economic case for a pay increase is not made out. However, taking a longer view of inflation set against limited pay increases in those years, then officers pay has fallen behind in comparison with the cost of living As CCs and DCCs are on a spot pay point, only ACCs / commanders who are progressing through the increments get two pay increases in any one year, the annual pay award and, unless at the top of the pay scale, the annual increment (based on time served in rank. Therefore the number of officers whose pay will be increased only by the annual pay award in 2016/17 exceeds those that receive an increment and the award

45 6.6. Comparability with Other Sectors The CPOSA submission contains analysis done by Hay Group on the pay and remuneration package for chief constables in comparison to similar roles in the private and public sector. The full details of the study and findings are not repeated here. It does compare a range of typical posts both in terms of pay and also total remuneration Although the analysis does raise questions about the competitiveness of chief officer pay when compared with others, it is recommended that this information is used as part of next year s submission as part of other elements of the reform work Regional Variations Employment rates across the country have generally increased when comparing the 12 months to October 2015 with the previous 12 months. However, there are some regional variations with the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber reducing (see Figure 12). In terms of the number of workforce jobs, these increased in all of the regions in England and Wales (see Figure 13). Figure 12: Employment rates by region and comparison year on year, seasonally adjusted, August to October 2014 and August to October