INTRODUCING A RETIREMENT BENEFIT TARGET

Transcription

1 INTRODUCING A RETIREMENT BENEFIT TARGET Brnic Van Wyk Session Number: MBR4

2 Introduction True purpose of a retirement system: lifetime consumption spreading Australia: wealth accumulation

3 Two key questions from individuals: What individuals want how much do I need? do I have enough?

4 No guidance from industry Lack of direction perpetuated

5 Why a target? Target assists to revert back to purpose Create relevance for superannuation Sets a specific objective Informs strategy development Benchmarks progress Baselines impacts of adjustments to strategy Refocusses plans as circumstances change

6 Different types of target Age Pension (basic poverty level) Nominal dollar amount lump sum Nominal dollar amount regular income E.g. ASFA Modest and Comfortable Budget Standards Replacement ratio (gross) Total ratio is U-shaped relative to income Means-tested Centrelink benefits result in increasing funded replacement ratio for higher earners Various combinations (personalised)

7 Linking target to superannuation Setting a target answers the 1 st question: how much do I need? But the 2 nd question remains unanswered: do I have enough? Retirement target needs to be converted to a capital sum Thereby linking back to the familiar: DC superannuation accumulation

8 Factors impacting capital Post-retirement consumption patterns Front-loading consumption Retirement cash lump sum spend Cost of living increases over time Passive retirement phase Frail care costs and medical expenses Further research needed (and being done)

9 Factors impacting capital Required post-retirement increases Target (pa) Future increases Estimate capital Cumulative difference $20,000 Zero $291,834 - $20,000 Fixed 2% pa $367,080 26% $20,000 CPI Indexed $410,088 41%

10 Factors impacting capital Payment term Target (pa) Term required Estimate capital $20,000 For the next ten years only $182,695 $20,000 For the next twenty five years $396,479 $20,000 For the rest of my life $410,088

11 Factors impacting capital Age at commencement Target (pa) Age at commencement Estimate capital Difference $20, $410,088 - $20, $473,552 15%

12 Factors impacting capital Joint lives (shared households) Target (pa) Single life Joint life Difference $20,000 $410,088 $465,549 14% Gender (for non-europeans ) Market pricing levels

13 Reporting relative to target Current reporting: retrospective, timeweighted, rolling periods Target achievement only known when realised: At retirement date (lump sums) Only at death (lifetime income) Regular reporting for targets need: Accrued progress made towards target Certainty/probability of reaching target

14 Reporting relative to target 1. Funding ratio 2. Lump sum projections 700, Income projections 600, Asset/salary ratios 500,000 Account Balance ASR Also Certainty, or likelihood Account Balance 400, , , ASR 100, Age 0.00

15 Benchmarks for a target ASFA Research Centre (1999): Source of target % pre-retirement gross income Conventional wisdom 60% Financial planners 75% Clients of financial planners Department of Treasury Retirement Income Modelling (RIM) Unit 50% plus % pre-retirement net (disposable) Defined benefit schemes 50-79% 69-92% Superannuation guarantee after 30 years at 9%, (no supplementary contributions) Superannuation guarantee after 40 years at 9%, (no supplementary contributions) 60% 37-70% 48-79% 50-82% 62-90%

16 Benchmarks for a target All expressed as a replacement ratio (percentage of final gross salary): ASFA Policy Principles (2010) 60%-70% World Bank (1994) 54% OECD (2009) 70%

17 Member target vs. Fund target This paper describes a member s target Which can be converted to a capital sum Combined with delivery mechanisms Represents the fund s target (funded portion) Funded capital target for fund, to provide gross income target for member DEFINED TARGET FUND

18 Conclusion Changes required to introduce a target From: Wealth accumulation A reward for reaching retirement Time-weighted return measures Maximum risk-adjusted return over finite period To: Retirement income benefit provision Adequacy and certainty during retirement Internal rate of return measures Meeting income target over an unknown period

19 Disclaimer The views or opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of QSuper Limited or the QSuper Board of Trustees. The information in this paper is intended as a basis for discussion only. It has been prepared for general purposes without taking into account any particular financial objectives, situation or needs and is therefore not intended to be used as a substitute for professional advice. The content of this paper has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the material in this paper, the author gives no warranty in that regard and accepts no liability for any loss or damage incurred through the use of, or reliance upon, the information contained herein.