Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
|
|
- Rafe Farmer
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Commodity Prices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Chile and Norway Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Catholic University of Chile Getúlio Vargas Foundation and VALE Conference on The Economics and Econometrics of Commodity Prices, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August 2012
2 Key Issues Resource-rich economies (RREs) at critical juncture: Decade of high commodity prices resource boom Most RREs lack appropriate fiscal institutions Fiscal stance: often weak and ineffective in promoting macro-financial stability, growth, and equity Fiscal position vulnerable to commodity price reversal Chile and Norway: two RREs with decade-long experience of fiscal reform and good performance They show the way forward in four key fiscal policy areas
3 Outline 1. Chile s Fiscal Institutions and Policy 2. Norway s Fiscal Institutions and Policy 3. International Evidence on Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance in RREs 4. Lessons on Fiscal Institutions for RREs 5. Conclusion
4 1. Chile s Fiscal Institutions and Policy
5 Chile s Fiscal Policy Institutions in International Comparison (1) Institution Fiscal Responsibility Law Financial Management of Budget Budget Horizon Fiscal Rule Sovereign Wealth Funds Marks X
6 Chile s Fiscal Policy Institutions in International Comparison (2) Institution Management of Gov. Balance Sheet Marks X Budget Accountability + Transparency External Control and Auditing Fiscal Ad hoc Committees Fiscal Council X
7 Chile s Fiscal Rule Cyclically adjusted government balance rule implies a-cyclical government spending (automatic tax stabilizers are still counter-cyclical) Unique: targets government spending to cyclicallyadjusted revenue, adjusting for cyclical revenue due to cycles in GDP and mineral prices Has been in place since 2001 Strong governance and political economy / support Has generally worked well Except in : rule was overruled because of insufficient counter-cyclicality; reestablished 2011 Yet requires technical and institutional refinements
8 A Simple Rule (1) Cyclical net saving (cyclically adjusted balance minus actual balance) is determined by cyclical revenue (c.a. revenue minus actual revenue): B * t - B t = (R t * -G t )-(R t -G t ) = = NMTR t * - NMTR t + MTR t * - MTR t +CR t * -CR t + MR t * - MR t Non-mining Tax Rev* = NMTR* = f (output gap) Mining Tax Rev* = MTR* = f (trend mineral prices) Mining Transfers* = CR*+MR* = f (trend min prices)
9 A Simple Rule (2) Actual overall government spending equals trend structural revenue net of structural balance: G = R* - B* Hence government spending G is a-cyclical Government sets target for c.a. balance B* (net c.a. saving) Committees project trend GDP and mineral prices required for estimating c.a. revenue R* (strong political economy)
10 GDP Growth: Committee Forecasts and Actual Growth (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% % -2% GDP Growth Commi ee's Projected Average Trend GDP Growth Average Actual Future Growth
11 Copper Prices: Committee Forecasts and Actual Prices ($/lb) US$/Copper pound PCu Commi ee's Long Run PCu Projec on Average Actual Future PCu
12 Chile: Actual and cyclically-adjusted Gov. Balance (% of GDP) 9% 7% 5% Ra o to GDP 3% 1% -1% % -5% Cyclical Balance Component Actual Balance Cyclically Adjusted Balance
13 Chile: Gov. Revenue and Expenditure Growth Rates (%) 25% 15% Real rate of growth 5% -5% % -25% Central Government Revenue Central Government Expenditure
14 Chile: Gross Assets, Gross Liabilities, and Net Assets of the Government, (% of GDP) 30% 20% 10% Ra o to GDP 0% -10% -20% % -40% Gross Assets Gross Liabili es Net Assets
15 Chile: International Country Risk Guide Index (0-100) and EMBI Spread (in bp), EMBI Chile ICRG Composite
16 Chile: Assets held in SWFs, (% of GDP)
17 Rule s Fiscal and Macroeconomic Effects Reviews and research suggest Chile s fiscal rule has: Lowered pro-cyclical bias of fiscal policy Contributed to fiscal sustainability and credibility, lowering the sovereign risk premium Reduced macroeconomic uncertainty Lowered volatility of GDP, interest rates, and exchange rate Reduced dependence on foreign financing during downturns Improved protection of social programs during cyclical downturns
18 2. Norway s Fiscal Institutions and Policy
19 Norway s Fiscal Policy Framework Oil production peaked in 2005 and is projected to decline significantly in coming years 2001: Norway adopted new fiscal framework aiming at macro stability, fiscal sustainability, intergenerational equity, and resource use efficiency Three institutional pillars: (i) Structural fiscal rule (ii) Sovereign wealth fund (iii) Full integration of SWF into government budget
20 Norway s Past and Projected Oil Production,
21 Norway s Fiscal Rule (1) Oil rents are transferred to SWF Cyclically-adjusted non-oil budget deficit financed by average transfer from the SWF at an (imputed) 4% real return on SWF investments Annual deviations of the latter transfer are allowed for further discretionary government spending geared at counter-cyclical stabilization and expenditure smoothing
22 Norway s Fiscal Rule (2) Therefore government spending is equal to: trend values of government tax revenue and excise duty revenue and of Norges Bank transfers minus: trend values of unemployment benefit payments and of net interest payments and transfers plus: 4% real return on SWF investments plus or minus: discretionary spending adjustment for cyclical stabilization and to avoid excessive spending volatility Hence Norway s fiscal rule: 1. is consistent with c.a. balance measure (like Chile) 2. is consistent with inter-generational rent sharing (not Chile) 3. allows for additional counter-cyclical spending (not Chile) 4. allows for additional spending smoothing (not Chile) Hence Norway has an outstanding rule in place with outstanding results since 2001
23 Norway s Sovereign Wealth Fund Norway established Gov Petroleum Fund in 1990, renamed Gov Pension Fund Global (GPFG) in 2006 GPFG is managed by Norges Bank Investment Management, under investment guidelines issued by MoF GPFG investments are highly diversified internationally with 56% equity share of outstanding total investments valued at 275% of mainland GDP in 2010 Actual government surplus the consolidated surplus of GPFG and the non-oil government budget are transferred to GPFG, at the tune of circa 20% since 2005
24 Norway: Government Budget and Pension Fund Performance Fiscal policy A. Expected rea l return on the Government Pension Fund a nd structura l non-oil deficit. Bn. NOK (consta nt 2012 prices) 175 Structural deficit pct. real return B. Rea l underlying expenditure growth in the Fiscal Budget. Percent C. Average annual change in use of oil revenues and pension expenditures. Per cent of mainland trend GDP. 0,5 Increased use of oil revenues 0,4 0,3 Increased expenditure on old-age and disability pensions 0,5 0,4 0,3 D. Consolidated surplus in the fiscal budget and the Government Pension Fund. Percent of mainland GDP Consolidated surplus in the 30 fiscal budget and the Government Pension Fund Non-oil budget surplus ,2 0, ,1 0, , ,
25 Norway: Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) Investment Portfolio, (ratio to GDP, %) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Equity Fixed Income Real Estate
26 3. Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance in RREs
27 Findings on Fiscal Policy and Outcomes in RREs 1. Natural resources: curse or blessing? curse where initial institutions are weak (Robinson et al.) curse where taxes on non-resource sectors are low, corrupting institutions (Salti; Bornhorst et al.) 2. Fiscal pro-cyclicality World evidence: fiscal policy is pro-cyclical (deepening cycles) when governance and institutions are weak, corruption is widespread, fiscal credibility is low, financial markets are under-developed, and international financial integration is weak (Végh et al., Calderón and Schmidt-Hebbel, others) Oil-producing countries: high fiscal pro-cyclicality in (Villafuerte and Lopez-Murphy) GCC countries: spending follows resource rents, hence fiscal policy is pro-cyclical with a lag (Fasano and Wang)
28 Findings on Fiscal Policy and Outcomes in RREs 3. Weak fiscal sustainability Fiscal positions weakened in oil-producing countries duirng oil boom (V and L-M) 4. Fiscal vulnerability to commodity price reversals Fiscal positions are highly vulnerable to oil-price reversal in oil-producing countries (V and LM) 5. Macroeconomic volatility and Dutch Disease Fiscal policy pro-cyclicality has amplified business cycles in oil-producing countries (V and L-M, Abdih et al.) Pro-cyclical government spending leads to Dutch Disease during revenue booms -- hence RER misalignment, loss of competitiveness, and large non-resource curr. account deficits
29 Findings on Fiscal Policy and Outcomes in RREs Weak fiscal-policy institutions have adverse effects beyond policy pro-cyclicality and Dutch disease Opaque budgetary management and external control, lack of transparent fiscal policies and budgets, and poor budgetary accountability lead to ineffective and inefficient government spending, misuse of government resources, and corruption Adoption of modern institutional framework for fiscal policy makes major contribution to lessen adverse impact of commodity bubbles and strengthen good use of government resources
30 4. Lessons on Fiscal Institutions in RREs
31 Lessons on Fiscal Institutions in RREs Frontier fiscal framework is key for the triple goal of fiscal policy: fiscal solvency (or budgetary sustainability) macroeconomic stability inter-generational equity International experience in general and successful development of sound fiscal policy frameworks in Chile and Norway since 2001 suggest lessons in four key policy areas to strengthen fiscal policy institutions and conduct in RREs
32 1. Strengthen Fiscal Institutions Adopt / reform Fiscal Responsibility Laws Strengthen government s budget initiative and mgmt Extend budget horizon from 1 year to multi-year planning Maximize fiscal policy transparency and accountability Strengthen external control and auditing of budget execution and government accounts Strengthen fiscal analysis and monitoring by relying on richer set of key fiscal indicators
33 Government Budget Transparency in International Comparison, 2010 South Africa New Zealand UK France Norway Sweden US Chile Brazil South Korea Germany Peru Spain Colombia Portugal Argen ne Mexico
34 2. Adopt a Fiscal Rule Adopt a fiscal rule based on cyclically-adjusted balance of the government Adjust for both domestic GDP cycles and commodity price cycles key budget variables Make rule consistent with a-cyclical or, preferably, counter-cyclical spending and spending smoothing Preferably based on assumptions and forecasts of key variables provided by independent committees Possibly anchored in Fiscal Responsibility Law
35 3. Start/develop a Sovereign Wealth Fund Key complement of cyclically-adjusted balance rule Effective and transparent corporate governance Transparent information of transfers between budget and SWF Investment portfolio composition set by maturity preference (length of commodity-price and GDP cycles, inter-generational sharing), and risk aversion Investment management bound by transparent guidelines and close public monitoring
36 Transparency of Sovereign Wealth Funds in International Comparison, 2011
37 4. Adopt Committees and Fiscal Council Special Independent Committees: focus on narrow tasks, like key budget forecasts or fiscal reforms Independent Fiscal Councils: based on ad hoc law, Board members voted by Congress. Responsible for following tasks and recommendations: Budget assumptions, projections, monitoring, and recommendation of corrective actions Medium and long-term fiscal projections and assessment of fiscal sustainability and corrective actions Assessment of macro-financial effects of fiscal policy Assessment and recommendations on government asset and liability management Technical advice and public hearings (Congress) on budget management and fiscal reforms
38 5. Conclusion
39 Conclusion The world has made much progress in some areas of macro-financial institutions and policies e.g., independent central banks and the conduct of (conventional) monetary policy Yet fiscal institutions and fiscal policies face major challenges to strengthen sustainability of fiscal policy, its counter-cyclicality, and its transparency in industrial and emerging economies alike RREs face a particularly serious challenge to break out of the vicious circle between fiscal policy weaknesses and commodity cycles It can be done.
40 Commodity Prices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Chile and Norway Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Catholic University of Chile Getúlio Vargas Foundation and VALE Conference on The Economics and Econometrics of Commodity Prices, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, August 2012
41 Rule s Fiscal and Macro Effects: New Findings Which is the response of government saving and Chile s macroeconomy to a copper price shock under the rule (since ) compared to before the rule ( )? I use impulse responses from VAR estimations to simulate the response to a 10% copper price shock Before the rule: no effects on fiscal balance and EMBI, while RER appreciates and growth declines After the rule: fiscal balance improves, EMBI declines, RER appreciates, and growth rises
42 Response to a Copper Price before the Fiscal Rule ( ) Figura 2: Impulse Response pre-fiscal Rule
43 Response to a Copper Price under the Fiscal Rule ( ) Figura 3: Impulse Response post-fiscal Rule
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Fiscal Policy for Commodity Exporting Countries: Experience from Chile Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Catholic University of Chile kschmidt-hebbel@uc.cl IMF Seminar on Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth
More informationDOCUMENTO de TRABAJO DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO. ISSN (edición impresa) ISSN (edición electrónica)
Instituto I N S T Ide T Economía U T O D E E C O N O M Í A DOCUMENTO de TRABAJO DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO 416 2012 Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Economies: Lessons from Chile and Norway Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel.
More informationSession 11. Fiscal Policy
Session 11. Fiscal Policy Government size Budget balances Fiscal Policy over the business cycle Debt and sustainability Understanding Fiscal Policy: Government size Government size varies across countries.
More informationSession 16. Review Session
Session 16. Review Session The long run [Fundamentals] Output, saving, and investment Money and inflation Economic growth Labor markets The short run [Business cycles] What are the causes business cycles?
More informationMacro-Fiscal Policy Frameworks in Resource-Rich Countries (RRCs) OANA LUCA (IMF/FAD) BANGKOK DECEMBER 7, 2016
Macro-Fiscal Policy Frameworks in Resource-Rich Countries (RRCs) OANA LUCA (IMF/FAD) BANGKOK DECEMBER 7, 2016 Stylized Facts Mixed impact of natural resources on growth.with revenue volatility affecting
More informationFiscal discipline and infrastructure spending
Fiscal discipline and infrastructure spending Luis Servén The World Bank Lima, July 2008 Fiscal discipline and infrastructure 1. The facts 2. Fiscal discipline and spending composition 3. Rethinking fiscal
More informationARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONG? Guillermo Perry and Luis Servén World Bank May 2003
ARGENTINA: WHAT WENT WRONG? Guillermo Perry and Luis Servén World Bank May 2003 Performance in the nineties: Better than most up to 1998, worse than most afterwards Real GDP Growth Rate (Percentages) 1981-90
More informationRepublic of Cyprus Ministry of Finance. The Cyprus Sovereign Wealth Fund - the role of oil and gas revenues
Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Finance The Cyprus Sovereign Wealth Fund - the role of oil and gas revenues 1.11.2017 Presentation Outline 1. The role of oil and gas revenues in an economy 2. Uniqueness
More informationCommodity Savings Funds: Asset allocation and spending rules. Washington DC March 10-11, 2008
Commodity Savings Funds: Asset allocation and spending rules Arjan Berkelaar Principal Investment Officer Asset Allocation & Quant Strategies Jennifer Johnson-Calari Director Sovereign Investment Partnerships
More informationMacroeconomic Management in Emerging-Market Economies with Open Capital Accounts. Outline
Macroeconomic Management in Emerging-Market Economies with Open Capital Accounts Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank of Chile Seminar on Crisis Prevention in Emerging Markets IMF-Singapore Training Institute
More informationSvein Gjedrem: From oil and gas to financial assets Norway s Government Pension Fund Global
Svein Gjedrem: From oil and gas to financial assets Norway s Government Pension Fund Global Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the conference Commodities,
More informationSession #22: Sovereign Wealth Funds
Session #22: Sovereign Wealth Funds Vidar Ovesen IMF Consultant SPC (SOPAC Division) Pacific ACP States 5 th Regional Training Workshop on Deep Sea Minerals: Financial Aspects 13 th -16 th May The Rarotongan
More informationHousehold Balance Sheets and Debt an International Country Study
47 Household Balance Sheets and Debt an International Country Study Jacob Isaksen, Paul Lassenius Kramp, Louise Funch Sørensen and Søren Vester Sørensen, Economics INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY What are the
More informationThe taxonomy of Sovereign Investment Funds
www.pwc.com/sovereignwealthfunds The taxonomy of Sovereign Investment Funds May 2015 SWF s operating in an evolving political environment The increasing influence and relevance of Sovereign Investors (SIs)
More informationFiscal Policy in Emerging Market Economies. Andrés Velasco Columbia University
Fiscal Policy in Emerging Market Economies Andrés Velasco Columbia University October 2011 Road Map 1. Fiscal policy in emerging market economies: the issues 1. Deficit bias and procyclicality 2. Political
More informationImproving the quality of policymaking and government spending: A review of budgetary and regulatory instruments and the perspective of OECD countries
Improving the quality of policymaking and government spending: A review of budgetary and regulatory instruments and the perspective of OECD countries Luiz De Mello Deputy Director Public Governance & Territorial
More informationEconomic Policy in the Crisis. Lars Calmfors Jönköping International Business School, 2 November 2009
Economic Policy in the Crisis Lars Calmfors Jönköping International Business School, 2 November 2009 My involvement Professor of International Economics at the Institute for International Economic Studies,
More informationManaging Nonrenewable Natural Resources
International Monetary Fund Managing Nonrenewable Natural Resources Vitor Gaspar Fiscal Affairs Department Third IMF Statistical Forum: Official Statistics to Support Evidence-Based Policy-Making Frankfurt,
More informationSupply and Demand over the Business Cycle
Session 9. The Model at Work. v Business Cycles v The Economy in the Long Run: Recession and recovery Monetary expansion The everyday business of the central bank v Summing up: The IS/LM Model in Closed
More informationPrices and Output in an Open Economy: Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
Prices and Output in an Open conomy: Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply chapter LARNING GOALS: After reading this chapter, you should be able to: Understand how short- and long-run equilibrium is reached
More informationGovernance and Investment Management of Public Pension Funds. Dimitri Vittas November 2008
Governance and Investment Management of Public Pension Funds Dimitri Vittas November 2008 1 Outline of Paper Types and Role of Public Pension Funds. Past Poor Record and Weak Governance. Recent Initiatives
More informationMEFMI COMBINED FORUM FOR MINISTERS OF FINANCE AND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS. Transforming Depleting Natural Resources into Income for Growth
MEFMI COMBINED FORUM FOR MINISTERS OF FINANCE AND CENTRAL BANK GOVERNORS Lima, Peru October 6 th, 2015 Transforming Depleting Natural Resources into Income for Growth Bernard Murira, CFA Lead Financial
More informationSvein Gjedrem: Inflation targeting in an oil economy
Svein Gjedrem: Inflation targeting in an oil economy Address by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebanken Møre, Ålesund, 4 June 2002. Please note that the text
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationFiscal Rule for Albania. Jiri Jonas. Albania Opportunities and Challenges in the Move Towards Emerging Market Status. Tirana, May 14, 2008
Fiscal Rule for Albania Jiri Jonas Albania Opportunities and Challenges in the Move Towards Emerging Market Status. Tirana, May 14, 2008 Outline What are fiscal policy rules (FPR)? Brief history. Major
More informationØystein Olsen: The economic outlook
Øystein Olsen: The economic outlook Address by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), to invited foreign embassy representatives, Oslo, 29 March 2011. The address is based
More informationSan Francisco Retiree Health Care Trust Fund Education Materials on Public Equity
M E K E T A I N V E S T M E N T G R O U P 5796 ARMADA DRIVE SUITE 110 CARLSBAD CA 92008 760 795 3450 fax 760 795 3445 www.meketagroup.com The Global Equity Opportunity Set MSCI All Country World 1 Index
More informationInflation Targeting: The Experience of Emerging Markets
Inflation Targeting: The Experience of Emerging Markets Nicoletta Batini and Douglas Laxton (IMF) With support from M Goretti and K Kuttner. Research Assistance: N Carcenac FACTS IT very popular monetary
More informationJan F Qvigstad: Outlook for the Norwegian economy
Jan F Qvigstad: Outlook for the Norwegian economy Address by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebank 1 Fredrikstad, 4 November 2009. The text below may
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationSHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA
SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS FOR LATIN AMERICA Ignacio Hernando Meeting of International Relations Managers Banco de España, 9 July 215 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CONTENT 1. The Latin America economy at
More informationMongolia Public Expenditure and Financial Management Review (PEFMR) Overview. Genevieve Boyreau Senior Economist
Mongolia Public Expenditure and Financial Management Review (PEFMR) Overview Genevieve Boyreau Senior Economist 1 What this report does Assesses the achievements and challenges for public expenditures
More informationSvein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy
Svein Gjedrem: The conduct of monetary policy Introductory statement by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the hearing before the Standing Committee on Finance and Economic
More informationFiscal Policy and the Global Crisis
Fiscal Policy and the Global Crisis Presentation at Koҫ University, Istanbul Carlo Cottarelli Director IMF Fiscal Affairs Department June 9, 2009 1 Two fiscal questions What is the appropriate fiscal policy
More informationConsumption, Income and Wealth
59 Consumption, Income and Wealth Jens Bang-Andersen, Tina Saaby Hvolbøl, Paul Lassenius Kramp and Casper Ristorp Thomsen, Economics INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY In Denmark, private consumption accounts for
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationMacroeconomic Trends and Priorities for Sub-Saharan Africa
Macroeconomic Trends and Priorities for Sub-Saharan Africa Workshop on the Role of Macro-Fiscal Units Dar es Salaam, January 8, 2018 Outline 1. Strong growth, the downturn, the modest recovery 2. Immediate
More informationFiscal Policy, Budget Deficits and the Economic Crisis. Lars Calmfors Intermediate macroeconomics Stockholm, 30 March 2010
Fiscal Policy, Budget Deficits and the Economic Crisis Lars Calmfors Intermediate macroeconomics Stockholm, 30 March 2010 Three lines of defence against the economic crisis 1. Measures to deal with the
More informationThe Stability and Growth Pact Status in 2001
4 The Stability and Growth Pact Status in 200 Tina Winther Frandsen, International Relations INTRODUCTION The EU member states' public finances showed remarkable development during the 990s. In 993, the
More informationSession 9. The Interactions Between Cyclical and Long-term Dynamics: The Role of Inflation
Session 9. The Interactions Between Cyclical and Long-term Dynamics: The Role of Inflation Potential Output and Inflation Inflation as a Mechanism of Adjustment The Role of Expectations and the Phillips
More informationAppendix: Analysis of Exchange Rates Pursuant to the Act
Appendix: Analysis of Exchange Rates Pursuant to the Act Introduction Although reaching judgments about whether countries manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the United States dollar
More informationCoordinating Central and Local Governments Policy in Iceland. Björn Rúnar Guðmundsson Head of Economic Department Ministry of Economic Affairs
Coordinating Central and Local Governments Policy in Iceland Björn Rúnar Guðmundsson Head of Economic Department Ministry of Economic Affairs A bird s eye view: Municipalities in Iceland Overall number
More informationVolatility and Macroeconomic Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Volatility and Macroeconomic Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Region Kamiar Mohaddes University of Cambridge @KamiarMohaddes Symposium on the World Economic Outlook: Implications for and the
More informationEnd of year fiscal report. November 2008
End of year fiscal report November 2008 End of year fiscal report November 2008 Crown copyright 2008 The text in this document (excluding the Royal Coat of Arms and departmental logos) may be reproduced
More informationDiscussion of Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk
Discussion of Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Institute of Economics, Catholic University of Chile 1. This Paper This paper
More informationFiscal Consolidation
Fiscal Consolidation Sam Beckett, Director, Fiscal Policy, HM Treasury 27 May 2011 Overview of presentation 1. Origin of the UK fiscal deficit 2. Fiscal policy response and framework reform 3. Latest forecasts
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationModeling fiscal policy in a small, open, resourcerich
Modeling fiscal policy in a small, open, resourcerich economy Norwegian experiences Ådne Cappelen Statistics Norway 1 MMU, Dec.2017 Outline Resource richness and fiscal policies Implications for private
More informationOverview of Selected Issues
Natural Resource Wealth & Economic Development Overview of Selected Issues Jan Gottschalk TAOLAM This training activity is funded with grants from Japan. Overview I. Some Basic Issues II. Key Factors for
More informationMonetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia Hernando Vargas Banco de la República Colombia March, 2009 Contents I. The state of the Colombian economy
More informationFiscal Policy with a Fiscal Rule
Fiscal Policy with a Fiscal Rule on the federal level in Switzerland Alain Geier, Economist Federal Finance Administration 7. July 2011 Agenda 1. Public Finance in Switzerland: An Overview 2. Budget Process
More informationThreats to Financial Stability in Emerging Markets: The New (Very Active) Role of Central Banks. LILIANA ROJAS-SUAREZ Chicago, November 2011
Threats to Financial Stability in Emerging Markets: The New (Very Active) Role of Central Banks LILIANA ROJAS-SUAREZ Chicago, November 2011 Currently, the Major Threats to Financial Stability in Emerging
More informationSlovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges
Copyright rests with the author Slovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges Presentation by Mark De Broeck European Department, IMF Seminar Organized by the European Commission November
More informationEconomic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean CHILE. 1. General trends. 2. Economic policy
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2017 1 CHILE 1. General trends In 2016 the Chilean economy grew at a slower rate (1.6%) than in 2015 (2.3%), as the drop in investment and exports outweighed
More informationOn Neutral Interest Rates in Latin America By Nicolas E. Magud and Evridiki Tsounta
On Neutral Interest Rates in Latin America By Nicolas E. Magud and Evridiki Tsounta Introduction An increasing number of Latin American countries have been strengthening their monetary policy frameworks
More informationTHE REVIEW OF FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE, THE PRECAUTIONARY AND LIQUIDITY LINE, AND THE RAPID FINANCING INSTRUMENT
April 30, 2014 IMF POLICY PAPER THE REVIEW OF FLEXIBLE CREDIT LINE, THE PRECAUTIONARY AND LIQUIDITY LINE, AND THE RAPID FINANCING INSTRUMENT IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies,
More informationRules-Based Fiscal Policy in EMU: Pros and Cons
Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in EMU: Pros and Cons Presentation at the Brussels Economic Forum Richard Hemming International Monetary Fund April 22, 2004 The Case for Fiscal Rules Political economy influences
More informationInternational Investors in Local Bond Markets: Indiscriminate Flows or Discriminating Tastes?
International Investors in Local Bond Markets: Indiscriminate Flows or Discriminating Tastes? John D. Burger (Loyola University, Maryland) Rajeswari Sengupta (IGIDR, Mumbai) Francis E. Warnock (Darden
More informationHeads and staffs of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI),
MANAGING NATURAL RESOURCE REVENUE FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH & DEVELOPMENT Opening Address by Mr. Alex Ashiagbor, Chairman of the Governing Council, IFS and former Governor of the Bank of Ghana Introduction
More informationCapital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability. Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile
Capital flows: Monitoring Risks to Financial Stability Luis Opazo Financial Policy Division Central Bank of Chile CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE NOVEMBER 211 Sources of Risk Potential sources of risk In the global
More informationAll-Country Equity Allocator February 2018
Leila Heckman, Ph.D. lheckman@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6261 John Mullin, Ph.D. jmullin@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6262 Charles Waters cwaters@dcmadvisors.com 917-386-6264 All-Country Equity Allocator February
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook The Institute of Strategic and International Studies Kuala Lumpur, November 2012 Mangal Goswami Mangal Goswami Deputy Director IMF Singapore Regional Training Institute Action Needed
More informationA review of the surplus target, SOU 2016:67
Summary A review of the surplus target, SOU 2016:67 In Sweden there is broad political consensus on the fiscal policy framework. This consensus is based on experiences from the deep economic crisis in
More information1 March 1 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE
Current Issue es in Inflation Targeting in Latin America Rodrigo O. Valdés 1 March 2007 1 Motivation Fact: Inflation targeting (IT) is spreading around Latin America. Among others, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
More informationRiding the Commodity Price Roller-Coaster
Riding the Commodity Price Roller-Coaster Presentation to FLAR in Cartagena, Colombia 10 July 2018 John Murray Former Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada Outline Why Canada is different from other industrial
More informationExchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind?
Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policies in developing countries: leaning against the wind? Guillermo Perry Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank Conference on Emerging Powers in
More informationMonetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts
Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP
More informationVolume 31, Issue 1. Florence Huart University Lille 1
Volume 31, Issue 1 Has fiscal discretion during good times and bad times changed in the euro area countries? Florence Huart University Lille 1 Abstract We study the relationship between the change in the
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Second Meeting October 9 10, 2015 Statement by José Darío Uribe, Governor, Banco de la República, Colombia On behalf of Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador,
More informationInflation Report. April June 2013
April June 2013 August 7, 2013 1 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
More informationGetting Rules into Policymakers Hands: A Review of Rules-based Macro Policy
Getting Rules into Policymakers Hands: A Review of Rules-based Macro Policy Special Lecture at Blavatnik School of Government University of Oxford May 22, 2018 Mario Marcel Governor Central Bank of Chile
More informationMacroeconomic Diagnostics (MDSx) Module
Macroeconomic Diagnostics (MDSx) Module 7 Fiscal Policy This training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is intended for use in IMF Institute for Capacity Development
More informationWhy do we need to think about Natural Resources?
December 8th, 2014 @ GSID, Nagoya University Preventing Natural Resource Curse Kazue Demachi Kobe University k.demachi@people.kobe-u.ac.jp Why do we need to think about Natural Resources? 1 2 Being Natural
More informationRESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL DEPUTY GOVERNOR EGIL MATSEN
RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT PENSION FUND GLOBAL DEPUTY GOVERNOR EGIL MATSEN 7 MARCH 2017 The GPFG A financial investor with a unique set of characteristics Size Intergenerational investment horizon
More informationChapter 1. Fiscal consolidation targets, plans and measures in OECD countries
1. FISCAL CONSOLIDATION TARGETS, PLANS AND MEASURES IN OECD COUNTRIES 1 Chapter 1 Fiscal consolidation targets, plans and measures in OECD countries This chapter discusses the consolidation efforts of
More informationPetroleum s impact on the national economy. Martin Skancke Director General
Petroleum s impact on the national economy Dili, May 2010 Martin Skancke Director General Asset Management Department Overview Part 1 Key challenges in managing petroleum revenues Important governance
More informationManaging oil revenues Norway s experience
Norwegian Ministry of Finance Managing oil revenues Norway s experience Senior advisor Tore Eriksen September 13, 2018 in Maputo Outline Petroleum revenues and fund mechanism Governance Investments Fund
More informationConfronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators
Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Policy Trade-offs May for 20, Unprecedented 2009 - Maison Times: Confronting de l Amérique the Global Crisis Latine, America, ParisIADB,
More informationSovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance: Risks and Opportunities
Sovereign Wealth Funds and Long-Term Development Finance: Risks and Opportunities Alan Gelb, Silvana Tordo and Håvard Halland World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6776 Natural Resource Charter Annual
More informationInflation Report. January March 2013
January March 2013 May 8, 2013 Outline 1 External Conditions 2 Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants 4 Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 External Conditions Global Environment
More informationPublic Debt Sustainability Analysis for Market Access Countries (MACs): The IMF s Framework. S. Ali Abbas International Monetary Fund
Public Debt Sustainability Analysis for Market Access Countries (MACs): The IMF s Framework S. Ali Abbas International Monetary Fund September 215 1 Outline Motivation for 213 MAC DSA reform Risk - Based
More information: Monetary Economics and the European Union. Lecture 5. Instructor: Prof Robert Hill. Inflation Targeting
320.326: Monetary Economics and the European Union Lecture 5 Instructor: Prof Robert Hill Inflation Targeting Note: The extra class on Monday 11 Nov is cancelled. This lecture will take place in the normal
More informationPresentation by Economy Under Review - Chile
2008/SOM3/013anx3 Agenda Item: IV Presentation by Economy Under Review - Chile Purpose: Consideration Submitted by: APEC Secretariat Third Senior Officials Meeting Lima, Peru 22-23 August 2008 CHILE IAP
More informationThe Brussels Economic Forum
The Brussels Economic Forum What kind of policies should the new Member States apply to optimise their speed of convergence? Banco de Portugal VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO Brussels, 23d of April 24 I. INTRODUCTION
More informationPAPUA NEW GUINEA STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS
October 8, 215 PAPUA NEW GUINEA STAFF REPORT FOR THE 215 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Approved By Hoe Ee Khor and Steven Barnett (IMF) Satu Kahkonen (IDA) Prepared by the staffs
More informationTHE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATES IN MONETARY POLICY RULE: THE CASE OF INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES
THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATES IN MONETARY POLICY RULE: THE CASE OF INFLATION TARGETING COUNTRIES Mahir Binici Central Bank of Turkey Istiklal Cad. No:10 Ulus, Ankara/Turkey E-mail: mahir.binici@tcmb.gov.tr
More informationLESSONS FROM BOTSWANA S EXPERIENCE IN TRANSFORMING RESOURCE WEALTH INTO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT KEITH JEFFERIS
LESSONS FROM BOTSWANA S EXPERIENCE IN TRANSFORMING RESOURCE WEALTH INTO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT KEITH JEFFERIS IGC Africa Growth Forum, Kampala, Uganda December 11 th - 13 th, 2013 Botswana s economic
More informationECONOMIC PROFILE OF NORWAY
5/31/2017 ECONOMIC PROFILE OF NORWAY Submitted to Dr. Ahmed Tazmeen Department of Economics North South University Prepared & Submitted by Fatema Zohara ID: 161-2861-085 MPPG 6th Batch North South University
More informationTHE NATIONAL TREASURY AND PLANNING
REPUBLIC OF KENYA THE NATIONAL TREASURY AND PLANNING DRAFT KENYA SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND POLICY FEBRUARY 8, 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 2 POLICY OBJECTIVES... 4 SCOPE... 4 LEGAL AND REGULATORY
More informationOpinion of the Monetary Policy Council on the 2014 Draft Budget Act
Warsaw, November 19, 2013 Opinion of the Monetary Policy Council on the 2014 Draft Budget Act Fiscal policy is of prime importance to the Monetary Policy Council in terms of ensuring an appropriate coordination
More information2016 External Sector Report
216 External Sector Report Global Imbalances and Policy Challenges September, 216 o Evolution of Global Current Accounts and Exchange Rates Widening and reconfiguration of imbalances in 215 Drivers: Asymmetric
More informationFISCAL MONITOR SELECTED TOPICS
FISCAL MONITOR Fiscal Monitor Archives Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead May 2010 Fiscal Exit: From Strategy to Implementation November 2010 Shifting Gears April 2011 Addressing Fiscal Challenges
More informationHOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES
HOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES Austrian National Bank Workshop - Housing Market Challenges in Europe and the US - any solutions available? September 29, 2008 - Vienna Christophe
More informationManaging Fiscal Revenues From Extractive Industry:
Ministry of Finance, Mongolia Managing Fiscal Revenues From Extractive Industry: The Case of Mongolia October 7, 2015 Ms. Otgonbayar Chimeddorj Director, Macroeconomic Policy Division Managing Fiscal Revenues
More informationFISCAL MONITOR SELECTED TOPICS
FISCAL MONITOR SELECTED TOPICS Fiscal Monitor Archives Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead May 2010 Fiscal Exit: From Strategy to Implementation November 2010 Shifting Gears April 2011 Addressing Fiscal
More informationProgress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction)
Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction) Source: OECD May 2014 Forecast, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and
More informationSWFs: Inward vs. Outward Investment Mandates Conditions for Success
SWFs: Inward vs. Outward Investment Mandates Conditions for Success Eliot Kalter President of EM Strategies Co-Head, SovereigNET: Fletcher Network for Sovereign Wealth and Global Capital ekalter@emstrategies.com
More informationFiscal Assessment Report. April 2012
Fiscal Assessment Report April 2012 1 Overview Macroeconomic assessment Budgetary assessment Assessment of fiscal stance 2 Macroeconomic Assessment 3 Growth prospects have weakened since Budget 2012 %
More informationMexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION
Mexico: 2016 IMF ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION Wilson Center, January 9, 2017 Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund BACKGROUND Growth in Economic Activity and Employment Have Remained Stable
More information