FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

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3 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012 FOURTH QUARTER GDP

4 MISSION STATEMENT In a coordinated manner produce and disseminate relevant, quality and timely statistics that are fit-for-purpose in accordance with international standards and best practice VISION STATEMENT be a high performance institution in statistics delivery. CORE VALUES Performance Integrity Service focus Transparency Accuracy Partnership 2 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

5 Preface This publication presents an overview of economic developments in Namibia during the fourth quarter of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates are meant to assist in the analysis of short-term movements of the economy. Other economic indicators such as volume indices of production, distributive trade indices and levels of employment can also be used for that purpose; however, national accounts aggregates such as the GDP are more comprehensive as compared to the latter. The GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 recorded a growth of 4.3 percent compared to a growth of 10.4 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of This impressive performance was mainly due to the growth brought about by the Agriculture, Mining and Electricity and water sectors real value added that increased by 21.1 percent, 47.7 percent and 17.2 percent, respectively. I would like to emphasize the importance of accurate and timely delivery of data from our stakeholders in the private and public sectors to the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA), on which the compilation of robust quarterly GDP depends. In this regard, I wish to express my appreciation to all data providers both institutions and individuals without whose assistance the publication would not have been possible. DR JOHN STEYTLER STATISTICIAN GENERAL Windhoek, March 2013 FOURTH QUARTER GDP

6 4 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

7 Contents Preface 3 Introduction 5 Revisions 5 Key findings 6 Methodological Note 17 Table 1 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity 19 Table 2 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity 21 FOURTH QUARTER GDP

8 6 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

9 Introduction The main purpose of the compilation of quarterly national accounts is to provide a picture of current economic developments that is more timely and frequent than that provided by annual national accounts. Quarterly data serves to determine the short-term movements in the series, while the annual data determines the overall level and long-term movements in the series. In principle, the only difference between quarterly and annual national accounts is the reference period, quarter and calendar year, respectively. The definitions and conceptual frameworks, as well as the accounts and accounting identities of the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA) are equally valid for the two accounts. In practice, the constraints of data availability and resources would mean that quarterly national accounts are usually less complete than annual national accounts. The Namibia Statistics Agency has started the compilation of quarterly GDP at constant prices as a first step in embarking on full quarterly national accounts compilation. Since quarterly and annual estimates are often based on different kinds of source data, the annual total derived from the sum of the four quarter under consideration will differ from annual estimates based on more comprehensive source data. In order to make them comparable, quarterly estimates are benchmarked to their annual estimates. Benchmarking is the process of combining a time series of high frequency data with less frequent but more accurate data. Quarterly estimates quite often show very short-term variations due to weather, habits, etc. usually defined as seasonal fluctuations. Although seasonality is an integral part of quarterly data, it is often an impediment to the correct identification and analysis of the business cycle and trend. Therefore, quarterly estimates needs to be seasonally adjusted in addition to the unadjusted estimates. Seasonal adjustment is an analytical technique to break down a series into its components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of the behavior of the time series. Both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted quarterly estimates serve their own purposes. Unadjusted estimates show the actual economic events while seasonally adjusted estimates show characteristics that seasonal movements tend to mask, especially changes in the direction of the series. Revisions Revisions are essentially part of good quarterly national accounts compilation practice because they provide users with data that are as accurate as possible. Revisions provide the possibility to incorporate new and more accurate information, and thus to improve the accuracy of the estimates, without introducing breaks in the time series. Due to the availability of more comprehensive data, revisions are made of estimates for the latest quarters. Sources and timeliness The sources for quarterly national accounts are quarterly economic surveys and administrative data. Quarterly GDP estimates are released with a time lag of 90 days from the reference quarter. Key findings In order to be able to compare consecutive quarters it is advisable to adjust for seasonality. Seasonal adjustment for Namibia s quarterly national accounts is affected at GDP level only. The seasonally adjusted GDP depicts that the economy is showing an upward trend by recording an impressive growth of 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 when compared to a decline of 3.7 percent registered in the preceding quarter (Chart 1). 4.3 % Economic growth Year-on-year, the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2012 recorded a growth of 4.3 percent compared to 10.4 percent growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of This growth is brought about by the Agriculture, Mining and Electricity and water sectors real value added that increased by 21.1 percent, 47.7 percent and 17.2 percent, respectively. The sectors that recorded declines during the period under consideration were Fishing (-10.0 percent) and Hotels and restaurants (-16.4 percent). FOURTH QUARTER GDP

10 Chart 1: Adjusted and unadjusted GDP growth Percentage growth Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Unadjusted GDP Seasonally adjusted GDP 25.8 % and 15.5 % growth in livestock marketed and Grapes harvested, respectively Agriculture and forestry The agricutural sector recorded robust growth of 21.1 percent in real value added in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the corresponding quarter of Both subsectors, crop and livestock farming, showed a strong performance with increases of 25.8 percent and 15.5 percent, respectively. The increase in the crop farming sector can be attributed to the grape harvesting season. The growth witnessed in the livestock subsector is caused by substantial increases in the number of cattle and pigs marketed that recorded growth of 36.8 and 13.1 percent, respectively (Chart 2). The number of small stock marketed registered a decline of 12.3 percent during the period under consideration. Chart 2: Number of livestock marketed Volume index: 2004 = Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Cattle Small stock Pigs Source: Meat Board of Namibia 8 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

11 Fish and fish processing on board 1 Fish and fish processing on board is estimated to have recorded a decline of 10.0 percent real value added during the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to an increase of 20.1 percent registered in the same period of 2011 (Chart 3). The performance of the sector was mainly influenced by the demersal and mid-water fisheries landings that contracted by 9.2 percent and 19.7 percent, respectively. No landings were recorded in pelagic fisheries as most right holders have utilized their quotas in the first half of the year. The line fish landings grew by 40.1 percent. Fisheries Landings Declined Chart 3: Fish landings Volume index: 2000 = Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Pelagic Demersal Midwater Others 1 The estimate of fish and fish processing on board is based on preliminary figures because a complete set of data is still being awaited from industry. FOURTH QUARTER GDP

12 51.4 % and 26.5 % Diamond and Uranium growth in real value addedd Mining and quarrying Mining and quarrying recorded an increase of 47.7 percent in real value added during the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to 34.3 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of 2011 (Chart 4). This performance can be attributed to the diamond and uranium subsectors that recorded growth rates of 51.4 and 26.5 percent in real value added, respectively. The subsector of Other mining and quarrying also showed a good performance although not as strong as the other subsectors with a growth in real value added of 23.7 percent during the period under review. The sales of diamond were almost flat registering a 0.05 percent growth in carats (Chart 5). Chart 4: Total mining production Volume index: 2004 = Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q per. Mov. Avg. (Total mining) Chart 5: Diamond production and sales Carats in thousand Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Production Sales Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy 10 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

13 Manufacturing The manufacturing sector recorded a decline of 8.0 percent in real value added in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to a growth of 12.0 percent registered in the same period of This poor performance in the sector can be attributed to other manufacturing not elsewhere classified subsector that recorded a decline of 47.7 percent. Rubber and chemical products were among the subsectors that registered declines recording negative 36.9 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively % decline in Manufacturing n.e.c There were, however other subsectors within manufacturing sector that performed exceptionally well during the period under review. These were meat processing, non-metallic mineral products and basic metals that registered growths in real value added of 34.4 percent, 19.5 percent and 19.6 percent, respectively. These growth rates were however not significant enough to offset the overall decline of the sector. Electricity and water The Electricity and water subsector recorded a robust growth of 17.2 percent in real value added during the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to a 5.2 percent growth registered in the same period of The electricity subsector (21.3 percent) showed, however, stronger growth than the water subsector (4.3 percent). The significant growth in the electricity sector emanated from the decline in the sector s intermediate consumption by 22.8 percent during the period under consideration. The sales of electricity on the other hand recorded an increase of 5.1 percent during the period under review (Chart 6). 5.1% growth in Electricity sales Chart 6: Sales of electricity Millions of KWH Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Distributors Mining Others Source: Nampower FOURTH QUARTER GDP

14 5.0 % decline in the value of construction works for general government Construction Real value added in the construction sector registered a growth of 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to 6.8 percent recorded in the same quarter of The slower growth was mainly due to the value of construction works for general government that recorded a decline of 5.0 percent. The value of buildings completed increased by percent. All regions showed a strong performance except for the southern region that recorded a decline of 12.4 percent (Chart 8). Building plans approved grew by percent in value terms with the highest value of N$ million recorded in the central region followed by the western region with N$ 267 million (Chart 7). 2 Chart 7: Building plans approved 2,500 2,000 Millions of N$ 1,500 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Central region Western region Northern region Southern region Eastern region Source: Municipalities and town councils 12 FOURTH QUARTER GDP For regional classification please refer to the methodological note

15 Chart 8: Buildings completed Millions of N$ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Central region Western region Eastern region Northern region Southern region Source: Municipalities and town councils Wholesale and retail trade The performance of the wholesale and retail trade was exceptional during the fourth quarter of 2012 as reflected in a growth of 11.8 percent in real value added compared to 6.7 percent registered in the corresponding quarter of The growth in the sector can be attributed to clothing stores and supermarkets that recorded increases in revenues of 38.0 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively (Chart 9). Credit extended to households and businesses rose by 19.4 percent in total. 19.4% growth of Credit extended to household and business, 38.0 % revenue growth of clothing subsector Chart 9: Revenues of wholesale and retail trade 6,000 5,000 4,000 Millions of N$ 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Supermarkets Vehicles Other Source: Bank of Namibia FOURTH QUARTER GDP

16 Hotels and restaurants The hotels and restaurants real value added recorded a decline of 16.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to a decline of 6.4 percent recorded in the same quarter of The performance of the sector was caused by the decline in the number of bed nights sold and room nights sold that declined by 19.8 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively (Chart 10). 3 Chart 10: Number of bed nights and room nights sold Numbers in thousand S 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Room nights sold Bed nights sold 9.6 % growth in Telecommunications Source: Hospitality Association of Namibia (HAN) Transport and communication The transport and communication sector recorded a growth of 1.3 percent in real value added during the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to 9.9 percent registered in the same quarter of The slow growth is due to most transport subsectors recording sluggish growths. Telecommunication was the top performer registering a growth in real value added of 9.6 percent during the period under consideration. This was followed by port services that registered a moderate growth of 7.7 percent as reflected in the cargo handled (Chart 11). Other subsectors such as rail transport depicted some slight improvement (Chart 12). Chart 11: Cargo handled 1,800 1,600 1,400 Thousands of tons 1,200 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Landed Shipped Transshipped 14 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012 Source: Namibia port Authority 3 The figures for hotels and restaurants must be interpreted with caution as they are based only on HAN membership

17 Chart 12: Volume Freight Transport Net tons in thousands Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Rail Road Source: Transnamib Financial intermediation The real value added of financial intermediation increased by 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to 5.5 percent recorded in the same period of The growth in the sector resulted from both the banking and insurance subsectors that increased during the period under review. The banking sector registered an accelerated growth of 3.9 percent which was reflected in the increase of total deposits and claims by private sector (Chart 13). 3.9 % increase in claims by private sector Chart 13: Deposits and claims 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Deposits by all sectors Claims by private sector Net claims by central government Source: Bank of Namibia FOURTH QUARTER GDP

18 Methodological Note System of National Accounts 1993: The SNA 1993 is an internationally agreed methodology used for compilation of national accounts estimates published by the United Nations in co-operation with other international organizations. This means that the methodology, concepts and classifications are in accordance with the latest guidelines of an internationally agreed system of national accounts. Quarterly GDP estimates: Quarterly estimates of value added in real terms are less comprehensive and therefore need to be aligned to the annual real estimates. Short-term indicators are used to estimate the quarterly GDP. In terms of coverage, quarterly indicators are not as reliable as in instances where the results of annual estimates are used. Therefore, the quarterly estimates must be adapted to the independent annual estimates when such estimates become available. To this extent, the Proportional Denton Method is used. It is a technique that generates a series of the quarterly estimates as proportional to the indicator as possible subject to the restrictions provided by the annual data. Seasonal adjustment: Quarterly estimates often show very short-term variations due to seasonal variations.although seasonality is an integral part of quarterly data; it is often an impediment to the correct identification and analysis of the business cycle and trend. Therefore, quarterly estimates need to be seasonally adjusted as an addition to the original estimates. The seasonally adjusted data intend to show the short-term movements after the effects of seasonality have been taken away. The remaining short-term movements include trend, business cycle and irregular changes. The effect of the latter can have a huge impact on the overall growth rate in a small and open economy like Namibia s. Only total GDP has been seasonally adjusted and not its components, the values added, making up, GDP. The X-12 program released by the U.S. Bureau of the Census is used for seasonal adjustment. Classifications: The estimates of value added by industry are classified according to the third revision of the International Standard Industrial Classification of all Economic Activities (ISIC), with suitable adaptations for Namibian conditions. Regional breakdown: The following regions are represented by municipalities and town councils in respective towns that are surveyed by the NSA; Central region: Windhoek Northern region: Okahandja, Otjiwarongo, Outjo, Grootfontein, Tsumeb, Ondangwa, Oshakati, Ongwendiva, Okakarara, Rundu and Katima Mulilo Eastern region: Gobabis Western region: Swakopmund, Walvisbay, Henties bay, Karibib, Usakos and Omaruru Southern region: Keetmanshoop, Mariental, Karasburg, Lüderitz and Rehoboth 16 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

19 Table 1 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity Constant 2004 prices N$ million Electric ity and water Year Quarter Agriculture Fishing Mining Manufacturing and quarrying Construction Wholes ale and retail trade Hotels and restaurants Transport and communication ,034 1, , , ,244 1, , , , ,042 1, , , , , , , , ,129 1, , ,153 1, , ,294 1, , ,141 1, , , , ,044 1, , , , ,259 1, , ,085 2, , ,052 1, , ,185 1, , ,284 1, , , , , , , , , , , , ,104 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,181 2, , ,143 1, , , ,287 1, , FOURTH QUARTER GDP

20 Table 1 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity (Continues) Constant 2004 prices N$ million Year Quarter Financial intermediation Real estate Public administration Education Health activities and business services Other private services FISIM All Taxes on indust. products at basic prices GDP at market prices GDP, seasonally adjusted , ,242 10, , ,425 10, ,341 1,174 11,515 11, , , ,498 10, , , ,772 10, , , ,829 10, , , ,920 10, , ,227 1,012 11,239 11, , , ,250 11, , , ,658 11, , , ,040 11, , ,841 1,065 11,906 11, ,140 1, , ,462 11, ,161 1, , ,724 11, ,178 1, , ,426 13, ,190 1, ,624 1,136 12,760 12, ,198 1, ,191 1,010 13,201 13, ,209 1, ,382 1,058 12,440 12, ,224 1, ,382 1,206 12,588 12, ,244 1, ,561 1,249 12,810 12, ,272 1, , ,050 12, ,289 1, ,489 1,062 12,551 12, ,301 1, ,406 1,122 12,528 12, ,306 1, ,111 1,243 13,355 13, ,308 1, ,622 1,049 12,671 12, ,311 1, ,484 1,141 13,624 13, ,315 1, ,457 1,229 13,685 13, ,321 1, ,107 1,302 13,410 13, ,330 1,314 1, ,281 1,293 13,574 13, ,343 1,323 1, ,185 1,270 13,455 13, ,362 1,338 1, ,915 1,498 14,413 14, ,385 1,372 1, ,269 1,531 14,801 14, ,413 1,384 1, ,047 1,272 14,319 14, ,434 1,404 1, ,727 1,270 14,997 14, ,448 1,417 1, ,312 1,208 14,520 14, ,455 1,452 1, ,137 1,301 15,438 15, FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

21 Table 2 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity Constant 2004 prices percentage changes Year Quarter Agriculture Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity Construc- Wholesale and quarrying and water tion and retail trade Hotels and restaurants Transport and communication FOURTH QUARTER GDP

22 Table 2 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Activity (Continues) Constant 2004 prices percentage changes Year Quarter Financial Real Public Education Health Other FISIM intermediation estate admi- private activities nistration and business services services All indust. at basic prices Taxes on products GDP at market prices GDP, seasonally adjusted FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

23 NOTES FOURTH QUARTER GDP

24 NOTES 22 FOURTH QUARTER GDP 2012

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