What can cities learn from Labour Market Intelligence? Paul Bivand Lovedeep Vaid

Transcription

1 What can cities learn from Labour Market Intelligence? Paul Bivand Lovedeep Vaid

2 Using LMI to produce an economic assessment for Tower Hamlets Presented indicators (at the LA level and below) covering: Business and enterprise Economic performance Skill needs and future demand for labour Economic inclusion

3 Business and enterprise

4 Productivity: Output per worker in London NUTS3 areas and the UK Areas in London for GVA (NUTS3) Camden and City of London Tower Hamlets Haringey and Islington Wandsworth Hackney and Newham Lewisham and Southwark Enfield Lambeth Westminster Hounslow and Richmond upon Thames Barking & Dagenham and Havering Bromley Ealing Kensington & Chelsea and Hammersmith & Brent Barnet Croydon Bexley and Greenwich Merton, Kingston upon Thames and Sutton Harrow and Hillingdon Redbridge and Waltham Forest United Kingdom Tower Hamlets productivity per worker is 136, times the UK average - 40,000 80, , , ,000 Output per worker Source: Source: ONS Gross Value Added (Income Based) estimates for 2014, Business Register and Employment Survey (employment), Inclusion analysis.

5 Employment Structure: Borough Comparisons, 2014 Tower Hamlets mix of sectors closer to the characteristics of Central London than to other legacy host boroughs or East London as a whole. Finance and insurance is the largest sector in Tower Hamlets (over a quarter of all jobs), followed by professional services and Information and communication. Financial services barely register in the other Host Boroughs and rest of East London. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS

6 Employment Structure: Within the borough, 2014 Two very different subeconomies exist within the borough. Over 75% of employment is concentrated within the City Fringe (21%) and Canary Wharf (55%) - strongly concentrated in finance and business services. Employment in the rest of the Borough is concentrated in education and health. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS

7 Classification of Workplace Zones, 2011 Tower Hamlets New classification of jobs based on the 2011 Census, grouping people who work in 'Workplace Zones Not just the industry sector in which they work but also the occupation, qualification levels, the extent of international staffing, and other personal characteristics. 42% of these are classed as "Top Jobs", and almost all the rest are "Metro Suburbs". "Top Jobs" provide high status employment in business, industry and public service. "Metro Suburbs" are divided into four subgroups, three large. These are "Metro suburban distribution", "independent professional metro services" and "Suburban metro infrastructure". Source: Cockings S, Martin D, Harfoot A (2015) A Classification of Workplace Zones for England and Wales (COWZ-EW), University of Southampton. Map data includes Ordnance Survey Opendata, Crown copyright, obtained under Open Government Licence

8 Proportion of Workplace Jobs filled by In-commuters 86% of workplace jobs within the Borough were filled by incommuters in th highest proportion of all London boroughs, and higher than the London average of 67% Source: 2011 Census/L&W analysis

9 Commuting Outflows (% of residents in employment) Tower Hamlets exports resident labour to adjoining London boroughs 31% work in the borough, Most common workplaces for residents are the Cities of London and Westminster (jointly 30%) and Camden (7%). For a significant proportion of residents, employment opportunities outside of Tower Hamlets are more important than locally. Source: 2011 Census/L&W analysis

10 Economic performance

11 Sector Employment Growth, Major driver of job growth: professional and business support services 60% increase for professional services and 51% for business support services. Growth exceeded the London average. Employment declines: motor trades (-17%) and construction (- 37%), both at faster rates than the London average. Source: ONS, Business Register and Employment Survey

12 Employment Growth across Tower Hamlets Canary Wharf and the Isle of Dogs registered the highest employment growth. In the rest of the borough, the pattern has been more mixed Source: ONS, Business Register and Employment Survey

13 Annual earnings of workers & residents, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS, 2015, data sourced from NOMIS

14 Skills need and future demand for labour

15 Working Futures forecasts by occupation, applied to Tower Hamlets 2022 forecast Estimated employment by occupation Managers, directors and senior officials Professional occupations Associate professional and technical Managers, directors and senior officials Professional occupations Associate professional and technical Administrative and secretarial Administrative and secretarial Skilled trades occupations Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure and other service Caring, leisure and other service Sales and customer service Sales and customer service Process, plant and machine operatives Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Elementary occupations 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000-6,000-2,000 2,000 6,000 10,000 14,000 Forecasts show continued growth in the three higher-end groups, with the only lowerskilled occupation group showing growth being caring occupations and leisure and personal services occupations The largest growth is in professional occupations, followed by associate professional occupations. Both of these groups are largely occupied by graduates, with increasing numbers of the professional occupations having higher degrees Source: Working Futures, UKCES

16 Working Futures forecasts for London by qualification level Growth demand Replacement demand Net requirement QCF 7-8 QCF 4-6 QCF 3 QCF 2 QCF 1 No Qual ,000 1,200 1,400 Thousands For London as a whole: a total requirement from both growth and replacement of 2.4 million workers up to million of these are at qualification levels 4 and above. The remaining 400,000 are at Levels 3 and below We believe that the Working Futures base forecasts for replacement demand may be over-optimistic for a net requirement for mid to low skilled jobs Source: Working Futures, UKCES

17 Economic Inclusion

18 Economic inactivity rates within Tower Hamlets, by sex and age 32% of women are economically inactive within the borough compared to 14% of men. The variance between women and men is most stark at age where the difference is approximately 31%. This partly reflects women leaving the labour market while caring for a family. However given that economic inactivity rates increase from onwards it would seem that only a small proportion of them return to the labour force after raising their family. Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS

19 % of working age population claiming an out-of-work benefit, Feb 2015 The overall scale of worklessness (benefit claims) within Tower Hamlets has fallen substantially since 2013, after remaining at a similar level of 27-28,000 for the previous decade or more Currently there are 10.1% of residents claiming an out-ofwork benefit within the borough (this is the 10th highest proportion in London). Source: DWP working age data Feb 2015

20 Out-of-work benefit claimants by age and geography, Feb 2015 The incidence of worklessness varies considerably for different age bands: 6% of borough residents aged are claiming an out-of-work benefit (lower than the London average), while more than a quarter of residents aged are claiming an out-of-work benefit, far above the London figure There are four geographical concentrations: In the north-east of the borough starting to the east of Victoria Park extending down into Bow In the west there are large numbers of workless residents in the south of Spitalfields extending into the west of Whitechapel and the southern half of Shoreditch. There is a central concentration of worklessness on the border between Limehouse, Stepney and Bow Common In the east and south of the borough Source: DWP working age claimants Feb 2015, Mid-year population estimates 2014

21 ESA claimants by age and geography, Feb 2015 Using the DWP breakdown of ESA/IB claimants by age we can see that the proportion of claimants per age group is higher than the London average. This is particularly true for those aged over 45. Unlike the previous maps detailing the spatial concentration of out-of-work benefit claimants there is less of a pattern to ESA claimants Source: DWP working age claimants Feb 2015, Mid-year population estimates 2014

22 What were the headlines for Tower Hamlets? The biggest change for Tower Hamlet s is in its move up the employment, earnings and skills rankings. Tower Hamlets retains areas and concentrations of deprivation, but these no longer define the Borough. Growth has been substantially higher in professional services, business administration and support services and information and communications. Entry to these jobs has in recent years been predominantly by graduates. The challenge for Tower Hamlets council, and for schools and education services serving Tower Hamlets, is: to continue to facilitate economic and job growth, and to ensure that residents are competitive for the new jobs that are emerging. Employment is expected to grow by up to 78% by 2036 These forms of growth have also attracted supporting firms in hospitality and related sectors. However, the staffing for these includes many students and well-qualified people as well as those with lower skill levels. Given the physical limits of Tower Hamlets, accommodating this projected growth looks challenging Job growth in occupations requiring lower level qualifications is restricted to caring, leisure and other personal service occupations - where care work has seen the largest growth.

23 Contact us to discuss how we can help you.. Paul Bivand Associate Director of Analysis & Statistics Learning and Work Institute t e. Lovedeep Vaid Senior Labour Market Statistician Learning and Work Institute t e.