Games with Private Information 資訊不透明賽局

Transcription

1 Games with Private Information 資訊不透明賽局 Joseph Tao-yi Wang 00/0/5 (Lecture 9, Micro Theory I-)

2 Market Entry Game with Private Information (-,4) (-,)

3 BE when p < /: (,, ) (-,4) (-,)

4 BE when p < /: (,, ) (-,4) (-,)

5 BE when p < /: (,, ) (-,4) (-,) o Information Update!

6 BE when p < /: (,, ) (-,4) (-,) However, (, ) is no longer an equilibrium if p > /!!

7 BE when p > /: (S Entrant ; Others Mix) (-,4) (-,)

8 BE when p > /: (S Entrant ; Others Mix) (-,4) (-,)

9 BE when p > /: (S Entrant ; Others Mix) (-,4) (-,)

10 BE when p > /: (S Entrant ; Others Mix) (-,4) (-,)

11 BE when p > /: (S Entrant ; Others Mix) (-,4) (-,)

12 BE when p > /: (S Entrant ; Others Mix) (-,4) (-,)

13 Modified Market Entry Game: ew Payoffs if (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

14 Separating Equilibrium: (S-; -) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

15 Separating Equilibrium: (S-; -) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

16 Separating Equilibrium: (S-; -) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

17 Separating Equilibrium: (S-; -) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

18 Separating Equilibrium: (S-; -) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

19 Separating Equilibrium: (S-; -) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

20 (S-; -) is also a Sequential Equilibrium! (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

21 Pooling Equilibrium: (,, ) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

22 Pooling Equilibrium: (,, ) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

23 Pooling Equilibrium: (,, ) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

24 Pooling Equilibrium: (,, ) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

25 Pooling Equilibrium: (,, ) (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

26 (,, ) is also a Sequential Equilibrium! (-6,5) (-,4) (-,-6) (4,)

27 (,, ) is also a Sequential Equilibrium! (,, ) is not ruled out by THP, and hence, is also a Sequential Equilibrium But why can t the S type say, If I enter, I will be credibly signaling that I am S, since if I were weak and chose to, my possible payoffs would be - or -5, smaller than 0 (equilibrium payoff if weak). Seeing this, player s BR is It is profitable for player to (& signal) 7

28 Definition: Intuitive Criterion (Cho and Kreps) Consider, a strategy of player i that is not chosen in the Bayesian ash equilibrium, Let chooses Let be the payoff of player i s if he and is believed to be type be this types equilibrium payoff The BE fails the Intuitive Criterion if, for some player i of type, And for all other types in, 8

29 Intuitive Criterion (Cho and Kreps) In the previous Example, (,, ) fails the Intuitive Criterion If I enter, I will be credibly signaling that I am S, since if I were weak and chose to, my possible payoffs would be - or -5, smaller than 0 (equilibrium payoff if weak). (,, ) satisfies the Intuitive Criterion Such argument is not credible 9

30 Continuous Types: An Auction Game One single item for sale n risk neutral bidders Valuation is continuously distributed on the unit interval with cdf F(.) ~ [0,] All this is common knowledge Bidder s type = Valuation (private information) Pure Strategy = Bid function 30

31 Sealed High-Bid Auction (aka First Price Auction) Each buyer submits one sealed bid Buyer who makes highest bid is the winner If there is a tie, the winner is chosen randomly from the tying high bidders The winning bidder pays his bid and receivers the item 3

32 Sealed High-Bid Auction (aka First Price Auction) Bidder j, j=,, n, knows own valuation v j Risk neutral, pay b, wins with probability p Payoff is Solve for Equilibrium Bidding Strategy For the special case of bidders of Independent Private Value (IPV) Assume valuation is uniform [0,], cdf F(x) = x 3

33 BR to a Linear Strategy If buyer s bidding strategy is Then the distribution of bids is uniform Since valuation is uniform If buyer bids b, he wins with probability Buyer : 33

34 Equilibrium of the Sealed High- Bid (aka First Price) Auction Solve the maximization problem: FOC: Maximum at I.e. The BR to a linear strategy is a linear strategy By symmetry, the BE is 34

35 3 Bidder Case What if there are 3 bidders? Intuition is you would bid higher (competition) Assume bidder 3 bids If buyer bids b, he wins with probability Buyer : 35

36 Equilibrium of the Sealed High- Bid (aka First Price) Auction Solve the maximization problem: FOC: Maximum at I.e. The BR to a linear strategy is a linear strategy By symmetry, the BE is 36

37 Summary of 9.7 Pooling Equilibrium vs. Separating Equilibrium Semi-Pooling Equilibrium (MSE) Intuitive Criteria Continuous Type Models: Auction Games HW 9.7: Riley 9.7-~3 37