OECD (2005),, M iller Modigliani (1961), (07BJY014) ( 2005 ),,

Transcription

1 3 ( ),,, ( ) ( ),,,,, OECD (2005),,, ( ),, M iller Modigliani (1961),, MM (1961), ( ),, ( ),,,,, 3 58 (07BJY014) ( 2005 ),, (2007) (2008) (2008) :

2 ( ), (, 2000), ( ) MM ( 1961) (W illiam s, 1938; L intner, 1956; W alter, 1956; Gordon, 1959) ( Farrar Selwyn, 1967; B rennan, 1970), ( ShareholderW ealth) (Copeland et al, 2003), ( Emery Finnerty, 1999) P 0 = EPS 1 K + N PV F I (1), P 0, K ( ), EPS 1, NPVF I NPVF I R, R K EPS 1 POR g (1), (R), R ( ) K, (R) ( K), (W alter, 1956; ( ),, Gordon, 1959) H iggins ( 1977) H iggins (1977),, ( SGR ), H iggins (1977), H iggins (1977) : SGR = RO E (1 - POR ) = P A T (1 - POR ) (2), ROE, P, A, T,, ( ),,, R K,, Emery Finnerty (1999), g,, g R (1 - POR),, ROE R, ROE ( K),, g SGR,, H iggins (1977), H iggins M iller Modigliani (1961) NPVFI MM, NPVFI EPS 1 (1 - POR ) (R - K), K ( K - g) H iggins : (1) ; (2) ; ( 3) Higgins (1977),,, ( SGR) ( ) g, ( ) (, 2002) 59

3 ROE K,,, SGR : SGR K (1 - POR ) (3) OECD,, ( ) (3), SPOR, : S POR = 1 - SGR / K (4) : RO E / K = (1 - SPOR ) / (1 - POR ) (5), ROE K, SPOR POR; ROE K, SPOR POR, SPOR : (ROE) ( K), SPOR, ( ROE K ), (ROE) ( K), SPOR ( K),, ( ) , ( ),,, : ( 18 ), 10% ;, 5% ;, 3,,,,,,,,,, A 12, , 60 ( ),, (CAPM ),, Fama French 1992 Fama - French Gebhardt et al (2001), ( 1999) (2004) ( 2006) (2005) (2006) CAPM,,, CAPM, CAPM, CAPM ,, , 5 86, 43 1 Graham Campbell (2001), CAPM 60 (73149% )

4 : K i = R f + i (R m - R f ), K i, R f, i i, R m - R f Damodaran,,, % CAPM,, Damodaran Damodaran, , 6154%, 6117%, 6119%, 6% 6111%,, ( ) H iggins, 5, 1 : 1 P = A = T = 1 - POR = 1 - SGR = : H iggins,, K SGR, (4) SPOR ( GTA ) CSMAR ; ; ( ) , (ROE) ( K) ( SGR ) ( POR) ( SPOR) ROE 8153% 9136% 9178% 7141% 11123% 11123% 7141% 9126% K 8194% 8169% 8151% 8131% 9124% 9124% 8131% 8174% SGR 3168% 4153% 4118% 3184% 6100% 6100% 3168% 4145% POR 60122% 53176% 79137% 32170% 44195% 79137% 32170% 54120% SPOR 56145% 45142% 40188% 43146% 28149% 56145% 28149% 42194% http: / /www1stern1nyu1edu / adamodar, 61

5 , 2, (ROE) ( SGR ) 1,, ROE SGR, ( K),, 1%, 01004,, ( POR ) ( SPOR ) ( 1), POR 54120% SPOR 42194%,,,,,,, ( ) 9126% 8174% ( ),,, (57106% = % ) 1, SPOR 2002, 2005, ROE K ( 2 1),, SPOR POR : ROE K, ;, ( ) ( ), ROE K, RO E K ROE K SGR POR SPOR ROE > K 6 50% 13102% 8104% 7158% 43153% 4152% ROE < K 6 50% 3193% 9144% 1107% 64187% 86174% % 9126% 8174% 4145% 54120% 42194% 3,, ROE K 50% ROE > K,,, 62

6 , ROE < K,, (4152% ) ; ROE < K,,, (86174% ) SPOR ROE > K ROE < K SPOR,, (W ilcoxon) : Ho:, SPOR H1:, SPOR 4 4 ROE > K ROE < K SPOR RANK RANKSUM CR ITICAL VALUE P % ; P (W 23) = , Ho, ROE > K ROE < K,, ROE > K, ROE < K, ( ) ( ), 9% ; ROE > K ROE ROE < K ROE, ROE > K K ROE < K K, 1% ROE, K CAPM, K,, 5 5 RO E K P A T ROE K ROE > K 13174% % 8104% ROE < K 4126% % 9144% 9147% % % :, ROE P A T 5, ROE > K ROE < K, ROE < K, ROE > K 9147%, 0113, 0131 ROE > K ROE ROE < K ROE, 5, ROE < K ROE > K 0122,, K, ROE < K, 63

7 ROE < K, A,, ( ) ( ), (54120% ),,,, SPOR, (42194% ),,, ( 50% ),,, : 1. ( ),,, ( ), 2., (ROE),,,,,,, 3.,,,, 2010 EVA ( ),,,,, ( SPOR) ( ), : (1) SPOR,,, (, 2007), (2) CAPM,,, ( Ehrhardt, 1994), Myers (1972) CAPM, B reen Le2 rner (1972), ( Ehrhardt, ),

8 CAPM, SPOR (3),,, :, 470, , , 9: [ ] R, D., : , 6: :, 8 [ ] C :, 76 92, , 9: , , 2: , 2: 9 16, , 7: 7 13, , 4: 88 95, , 2: , 1: 33 36,, :, OECD OECD.. :, B reen, W. J., and E. M. Lerner On the U se of in Regulatory Proceedings. Bell Journal of Econom ics and Man2 agement Science (Autumn) : B rennan, M. J Taxes, Market Valuation and Corporate Financial Policy. National Tax Journal, 4: Copeland, Thomas E., W eston, J. Fred., and Kuldeep Shastri Financial Theory and Corporate Policy. Addison W esley: Ehrhardt, M. C The Search value: Measuring the Companygs Cost of Cap ital. Oxford University Press, Inc Farrar, D. and Selwyn, L Taxes, Corporate Financial Policy and Return to Investors. National Taxes Journal, 12: Gordon, M. J D ividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices. Review of Econom ics and Statistics, 5: Graham. John R., and Campbell R. Harvey The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field. Journal of Financial Econom ics, 60: view, 5: H iggins. R C How Much Growth Can a Firm Afford? FinancialManagement. ( Fall) Vol. 6: 7 16 L intner, J D istribution of Incomes of Corporations D ividends, Retained Earnings, and Taxes. American Econom ic Re M iller, M. H., and Modigliani, F D ividend Policy, Growth and the Valuation of Shares. Journal of Business, 34: M yers, S. C The App lication of Finance Theory to Public U tility Rate Cases. Bell Journal of Econom ics and Manage2 ment Science 3 (Autumn) : W alter, J. E D ividend Policies and Common Stock Prices. Journal of Finance, 3: W illiam s, J. B The Theory of Investment Value. Harvard University Press,

9 dramatically in 2008; the working cap ital management performance fell simultaneously through at least two channels in 2 /3 of all industries; while there are three industries (Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, metals and nonmetals industry, transportation and ware2 housing industry) in which the working cap ital management performance rose simultaneously through three channels. By the analysis of typ ical enterprises, the survey finds that the integration of channel management, supply chain management and working cap ital management has be2 come a new trendency, and supp ly chain financing and export credit insurance have become business innovation models of improving working cap ital management under financial crisis. Cap ita l Cost, Susta inable Growth and An Estima te of SO EsgPayout Ra te: An Em p ir ica l Study on the M odel of Susta inable Payout Ra te ( SPO R) W ang P ing & L i Guanggui Based on analysis about dividend policy theory, cost of capital theory and sustainable growth theory, this paper builds and tests a model of SOEsgsustainable payout rate. Empirical results show that return on equity cap ital can reach the level of cost of equity capital in the samp les of SOEs. Thus, the moderate retention of earnings will be conducive to the creation of value of SOEs. Then the paper suggests that SOEs should strive to imp rove its own earning, operating capabilities,, and maintain a reasonable capital structure, and p lay an active role in dealing with the market risk in order to take the cost of equity capital and sustainable growth into account when making their dividend policies. A Rev iew of M anagem en t Accoun ting Research in Ch ina D uh R ongr uey et al. A review of the articles on management accounting published in 18 Chinese journals from 1997 to 2005 shows a change of research emphasis from target costing and responsibility accounting in to budgeting, performance measurement and performance evaluation systems, val2 ue chain analysis, and value - based management in Normative and conceptual analysis was used in a majority of articles, followed by case studies, surveys, and field - archival research. There was little analytical research and no research at all based on experiments. It is en2 couraging that there is increasing research based on theory and an increasing variety of methods adopted. We put forward a number of suggestions in light of the identified problem s. The Study on the Aud it Judgm en t Conf idence: Ev idences by An Exper im en t W ang A iguo & Yang M ingzeng Behavioral decision theory argues that judgment confidence is one of important factors which influence judgment quality. Based on internal control risk judgment and going - concerned judgment, this paper tests the relation between audit judgment confidence and auditorsgexperi2 ence, effort and other factors. The experimental result indicates that a significantly positive relation is displayed between audit judgment confi2 dence and auditorsgexperience, effort, and a significantly negative relation is exhibited between audit judgment confidence and auditorsgcogni2 tion of tasksgdifficulty. Then the experimental result also shows that judgment confidence is stronger for male auditors than for female auditors. Research on In tegra ted Aud it of L isted Com pan ies in Ch ina X ie X iaoyan et al. The United States has executed the audit of internal control over financial reporting for five years, and adopts integrated audit way for audit of financial statements and audit of internal control. Enterp rise Internal Control Basic Norm s jointly promulgated by five m inistries, such as M inistry of Finance et al., will take the lead in the listed company scope on July 1 st 2009, and CPA may be employed to audit the effectiveness of the listed companygs internal control. W hether does our country need to adopt integrated audit? How to integrate? This paper provides useful help for CPAgs audit practice in order to integrate audit.