The Daily T&B Report March 12, 2018

Transcription

1 The Daily T&B Report March 12, 2018

2 Agenda Announcements What I did today Current market environment Unusual options activity / inside trading activity New trades ideas Current portfolio status

3 Announcements This week s webinar, Thursday night, 8pm EST will be on: 1. Entry setup and trigger 2. The duration cycle 3. Which options we ll be buying 4. Money management Friday is Triple Witching options expiration Typically a very bullish period It s when stock index futures, stock index options and stock options expire Occurs on 3 rd Friday of March, June, September, December

4 What I Did Today I closed out CRIS for a 12% gain

5 Lesson: The Three Trading Environments 1. The 3-environments place context around the markets 2. Markets spend more than 85% of the time in Chipshot territory 3. As the market transitions from Chipshot to Trading Dream, start concentrating on Vol products 4. If a market gets into the Fantasy Land, this is where you make the big play; the big play is a bet on volatility collapsing Markets never stay in Fantasy Land; they always revert back to Chipshot mode As a market transitions from Fantasy Land back to Chipshot, make your final plays during the transition through the Trading Dream environment

6 Per Trade Capital Allocation Per Trade Capital Allocation Per Trade Capital Allocation Current VIX Reading: Low Volatility High Volatility Exceptional Opportunity Market Environment VIX = 10s VIX = VIX = >25 Chipshots Trading Dream Fantasy Land RAP 5% RAP <1.5% RAP 5% ST TD <1.5% ST TD 3% - 5% ST TD 5% - 10% LT SP <1.5% LT SP 1.5% LT SP 1.5% We are currently here A market that just continues melting up without any movement to the down side A market that transitions from a Low vol to Hi Vol and vice versa A market that is in correction territory and where the VIX is above 25

7 Unusual Options Activity Insider Trading Activity DATE SYMBOL TYPE Still Active? 12/22/2017 MU Calls and Put-selling APR18 Yes 1/2/2018 BB 4k of the MAR18 13-calls Yes 1/3/2018 XLE 28k of the MAR Yes 1/4/2018 BAC 59k MAR18 32 calls Yes 1/7/2018 TXT Aggressive call buying a few months out Yes 1/9/2018 GILD 10k of the MAY18 90 calls Yes 1/9/2018 KKR 5k of the MAR18 24 calls Yes 1/19/2018 ON 6k of the APR18 25 calls bot Yes 1/19/2018 AAPL 5k of the JUL calls bot Yes 1/19/2018 LOW 5k of the MAR calls bot Yes 1/25/2018 EEM 10k of the JUN18 calls bot Yes 1/29/2018 OIH 23k of the JUL18 32 calls were bot Yes 2/2/2018 XLP 9k lot of the MAR18 57/53 put spread was bot Yes 2/27/2018 AAPL 36k of the 2MAR strikes were bought Yes 2/28/018 INTC High options volume in INTC calls NFI Yes 2/28/2018 AIG 7k of the MAR18 60 calls bought Yes DATE SYMBOL TYPE Still Active? 1/12/2018 CRM Director buys 6000 shares Yes 1/12/2018 DVMT Michael Dell buys 13k ashare Yes 1/12/2018 PLAY Two directors bot 15k Yes 1/16/2018 More insiders selling today 1/19/2018 BLCM Baker Bros dumping BLCM Yes 1/25/2018 BGNE Baker Bros bot 1.98m shares at $101 a share Yes 2/23/2018 HCA C-founder & wife purchase $5.8M worth of stocks Yes 2/23/2018 ATHN CEO buys $1M worth of stock Yes 2/23/2018 AXDX Director adds to $13.1M stake by purchasing $1M Yes 2/23/2018 OPK CEO adds to his 1.5M shares by purchasing $700k Yes 2/23/2018 AGN AGN CFO buys more shares after a large purchase Yes 2/27/2018 ZOES Major shareholder buys 1.3M shares Yes 2/27/2018 TMUS Major shareholder bought 400k shares last 2-days Yes

8 All of our trades from this point forward will be addressed within the context of the Three Disciplines. Three Disciplines LEGEND: LT Spec = Long Term Speculative Plays ST TD Gains = Short Term Triple Digit RAP = Retirement Account Protection Retirement Account Protection Short Term Triple Digit Gains Long Term Speculative Plays The RAP protects retirement accounts by placing trades in volatility products and precious metals at key inflection points ST TD Gains focuses on penny stocks and options trades. The intent is to trade specific setups and entry techniques with the goal of scoring 25%- 100% returns as quickly as possible LT Spec Plays are longer-term opportunities. We look for a catalyst and a market that s been beaten down or a market that s at an extreme high and we are convinced it s going lower.

9 Long Term Spec Plays New Trade Ideas No new trades at the moment

10 Short Term Triple Digit Plays Priority is the VXX trade. Tuesday I m looking to buy more puts and/or remove hedges New Trade Ideas I m watching these. These are all option trades. If I take action I ll you with the specifics (the ones in blue look like they ll trigger first): VZ / PG / LOW / WTW / MCD / BEN / DIS / AXP / HD TLT / BABA / OLED For all of these trades, I m looking for a specific setup and trigger. If I get triggered in on any, I m buying 1- strike ITM days to expiration

11 Portfolio Updates: RAP Trades None today

12 VIX. < 2% of trading capital Hold; pay line is <12 Portfolio Updates: ST Triple Digit Gain Trades Current Capital Allocation per Trade Guidance: See individual trades VXX. <50% of trading capital Hold this VOL trade to profit target I m removing hedges in this area Prepare to take profits when VXX <29 CPHI. <1.5% of trading capital. Take profits at.46 Remember the trading rules if you get trades on that I don t

13 Portfolio Updates: LT Spec Plays Current Capital Allocation per Trade Guidance: <.5% of trading capital AGN. Hold; do not add Mary Jane Stocks. Hold; do not add ALB. Hold; do not add Bio Tech Penny Stocks. Hold; do not add GE. Hold; do not add Blockchain stocks. Hold; do not add MXIM. 1% of trading capital // continuing to look good Miners. LSTG/PLG/SFEG. Hold; do not add SLV. Hold; do not add TLT. Add on rally > 121 up to.5% of trading capital ULTA. Hold; do not add

14 VXX & VIX Update VXX is still shaping up for me to remove hedges and/or add more puts

15 What We Need To Be Prepared For The BIG Plays. Major themes: Precious metals (i.e. SLV) long term play Biotech catch-up Commodity plays OK, let s act like we ve been in Title territory even you haven t. That s means riding this trade in to the motherland