Investor Presentation

Transcription

1 Investor Presentation September 2018

2 Disclaimer This presentation is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed to be a prospectus, offering memorandum, advertisement or public offering of any securities of MEG Energy Corp. ( MEG ). Neither the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ) nor any other state securities regulator nor any securities regulatory authority in Canada or elsewhere has assessed the merits of MEG s securities or has reviewed or made any determination as to the truthfulness or completeness of the disclosure in this document. Any representation to the contrary is an offence. Recipients of this presentation are not to construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax or investment advice and recipients should consult their own advisors in this regard. MEG has not registered (and has no current intention to register) its securities under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the U.S. Securities Act ), or any state securities or blue sky laws and MEG is not registered under the United States Investment Act of 1940, as amended. The securities of MEG may not be offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. persons unless registered under the U.S. Securities Act and applicable state securities laws or an exemption from such registration is available. Without limiting the foregoing, please be advised that certain financial information relating to MEG contained in this presentation was prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board, which differs from generally accepted accounting principles in the United States and elsewhere. Accordingly, financial information included in this document may not be comparable to financial information of United States issuers. The information concerning petroleum reserves and resources appearing in this document was derived from a report of GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. dated effective as of December 31, 2017, which has been prepared in accordance with the Canadian Securities Administrators National Instrument entitled Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ( NI ) at that time. The standards of NI differ from the standards of the SEC. The SEC generally permits U.S. reporting oil and gas companies in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves, net of royalties and interests of others. NI , meanwhile, permits disclosure of estimates of contingent resources and reserves on a gross basis. As a consequence, information included in this presentation concerning our reserves and resources may not be comparable to information made by public issuers subject to the reporting and disclosure requirements of the SEC. There are significant differences in the criteria associated with the classification of reserves and contingent resources. Contingent resource estimates involve additional risk, specifically the risk of not achieving commerciality, not applicable to reserves estimates. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. The estimates of reserves, resources and future net revenue from individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves, resources and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Further information regarding the estimates and classification of MEG s reserves and resources is contained within the Corporation s public disclosure documents on file with Canadian Securities regulatory authorities, and in particular, within MEG s most recently filed annual information form (the AIF ). MEG s public disclosure documents, including the AIF, may be accessed through the SEDAR website ( at MEG s website ( or by contacting MEG s investor relations department. Anticipated netbacks are calculated by adding anticipated revenues and other income and subtracting anticipated royalties, operating costs, transportation costs and realized commodity risk management gains(losses) from such amount. INVESTOR PRESENTATION

3 Disclosure Advisories FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION This document may contain forward-looking information including but not limited to: expectations of future production, revenues, expenses, cash flow, operating costs, steam-oil ratios, regulatory approvals, pricing differentials, reliability, profitability, emission intensity and capital investments; estimates of reserves and resources; the anticipated reductions in operating costs as a result of optimization and scalability of certain operations; and the anticipated sources of funding for operations and capital investments. Such forward-looking information is based on management's expectations and assumptions regarding future growth, results of operations, production, future capital and other expenditures, plans for and results of drilling activity, environmental matters, regulatory processes, business prospects and opportunities. By its nature, such forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. These risks include, but are not limited to: risks associated with the oil and gas industry, for example, the securing of adequate supplies and access to markets and transportation infrastructure; the availability of capacity on the electricity transmission grid; the uncertainty of reserve and resource estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and revenues; health, safety and environmental risks; risks of legislative and regulatory changes to, amongst other things, tax, land use, royalty and environmental laws; assumptions regarding and the volatility of commodity prices, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and, risks and uncertainties related to commodity price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate swap contracts and/or derivative financial instruments that MEG may enter into from time to time to manage its risk related to such prices and rates; risks and uncertainties associated with securing and maintaining the necessary regulatory approvals and financing to proceed with MEG s future phases and the expansion and/or operation of MEG s projects; risks and uncertainties related to the timing of completion, commissioning, and start-up, of MEG s future phases, expansions and projects; the operational risks and delays in the development, exploration, production, and the capacities and performance associated with MEG's projects; and uncertainties arising in connection with any future disposition of assets. Although MEG believes that the assumptions used in such forward-looking information are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such assumptions will be correct. Accordingly, readers are cautioned that the actual results achieved may vary from the forward-looking information provided herein and that the variations may be material. Readers are also cautioned that the foregoing list of assumptions, risks and factors is not exhaustive. Further information regarding the assumptions and risks inherent in the making of forward-looking statements can be found in MEG s most recently filed AIF, along with MEG's other public disclosure documents. Copies of the AIF and MEG's other public disclosure documents are available through the SEDAR website which is available at The forward-looking information included in this document is expressly qualified in its entirety by the foregoing cautionary statements. Unless otherwise stated, the forward-looking information included in this document is made as of the date of this document and MEG assumes no obligation to update or revise any forwardlooking information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. INVESTOR PRESENTATION

4 Disclosure Advisories NON-GAAP MEASURES Certain financial measures within this presentation including cash operating netback and corporate netback are non-gaap measures. These terms are not defined by International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ) and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures provided by other companies. These non- GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for measures of performance prepared in accordance with IFRS. Cash operating netback is the per-unit calculation of operating cash flow. Operating cash flow is a non-gaap measure widely used in the oil and gas industry as a supplemental measure of the Corporation s efficiency and its ability to fund future capital investments. Operating cash flow is calculated by deducting the related diluent expense, transportation expense, operating expenses, royalties and realized commodity risk management gains or losses from petroleum revenue proprietary, transportation, and power revenues. The per unit-calculation of operating cash flow, defined as cash operating netback, is calculated by deducting the related diluent expense, transportation, operating costs, royalties and realized commodity risk management gains or losses from petroleum revenue proprietary, transportation, and power revenues, on a per barrel of bitumen sales volume basis. Corporate netback is a further measure of the Corporation s ability to fund future capital investments. Corporate netback is calculated by further deducting general and administrative expense and net finance expense, on a per barrel of bitumen sales volume basis, from cash operating netback. MARKET DATA This presentation contains statistical data, market research and industry forecasts that were obtained from government or other industry publications and reports or based on estimates derived from such publications and reports and management s knowledge of, and experience in, the markets in which MEG operates. Government and industry publications and reports generally indicate that they have obtained their information from sources believed to be reliable, but do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of their information. Often, such information is provided subject to specific terms and conditions limiting the liability of the provider, disclaiming any responsibility for such information, and/or limiting a third party s ability to rely on such information. None of the authors of such publications and reports has provided any form of consultation, advice or counsel regarding any aspect of, or is in any way whatsoever associated with, MEG. Further, certain of these organizations are advisors to participants in the oil sands industry, and they may present information in a manner that is more favourable to that industry than would be presented by an independent source. Actual outcomes may vary materially from those forecast in such reports or publications, and the prospect for material variation can be expected to increase as the length of the forecast period increases. While management believes this data to be reliable, market and industry data is subject to variations and cannot be verified due to limits on the availability and reliability of data inputs, the voluntary nature of the data gathering process and other limitations and uncertainties inherent in any market or other survey. Accordingly, the accuracy, currency and completeness of this information cannot be guaranteed. None of MEG, its affiliates or the underwriters has independently verified any of the data from third party sources referred to in this presentation or ascertained the underlying assumptions relied upon by such sources. INVESTOR PRESENTATION

5 Vision 20/20 Transforming Our Business MEG IS FOCUSED ON 5 STRATEGIC PRIORITIES TO BUILD A MORE ROBUST, SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS BY 2020 Optimize balance sheet 2-3x Net Debt/EBITDA* Advance technologies Lower SOR, minimized operating costs and lower capital intensity Enhance business sustainability Further cash cost reduction of $3/bbl and strong environmental performance Maximize revenue per barrel Capacity to ship 2/3 of blend sales to Gulf Coast market and flexible rail strategy Generate free cash flow Offers flexible growth plan that is responsive to market conditions * Assumes US$65/bbl WTI, C$/US$ FX of 1.22, and WTI:WCS differential of US$20/bbl INVESTOR PRESENTATION

6 Optimize Balance Sheet STRONGER BALANCE SHEET ENABLES ADVANCEMENT OF KEY GROWTH PROJECTS, PROVIDES GREATER STRATEGIC OPTIONALITY AND SUPPORTS ORGANIC DE-LEVERING THROUGH TO 2020 Actions Taken Refinanced and extended near-term maturities Vision 20/20 Fully funded growth to 113kbpd Reduce Net Debt/EBITDA to 2-3x Raised $518M to fund highly economic emsagp growth Sale of 50% interest in Access Pipeline and Stonefell Terminal * Production and Net Debt/ EBITDA Forecast assumes: constant WTI price of US$65/bbl, C$/US$ FX of 1.22 from , WTI:WCS differential range of US$20-23, the full ramp-up of Phase 2B emsagp to 20,000 bpd by early 2019 and the completion of the 13,000 bpd 2B brownfield expansion by early 2020 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

7 Advance Technologies THE APPLICATION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY HAS TRANSFORMED OUR BUSINESS TO A LOW-COST, CONTINUOUS GROWTH MODEL, WITH ADDITIONAL UPSIDE AS emsagp AND emvapex PROGRESS INVESTOR PRESENTATION

8 High-Return, Short-Cycle Growth FULLY FUNDED PLAN TO GROW CHRISTINA LAKE PRODUCTION TO 113 KBPD IN 2020 WITH RUNNING ROOM TO PERMITTED 210 KBPD BEYOND 2020 Growth Projects Delivering 113 kbpd in 2020 Phase 2B emsagp 20,000 cost ~55% $65 WTI Capital spend complete, production to exit 2018 >100 kbpd Phase 2B Brownfield Expansion 13,00 cost ~35% WTI Production to ramp up in 2H19, reaching full capacity in early 2020 * The growth projects generate sustainable returns through 50-year+ economic lives * IRR assumes: constant WTI price of US$65/bbl, C$/US$ FX of 1.22 from , WTI/WSC differential range of US$20-23, the full ramp-up of Phase 2B emsagp to 20,000 bpd by early 2019 and the completion of the 13,000 bpd 2B brownfield expansion by early 2020 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

9 Free Cash Flow Generation MEG IS WELL-POSITIONED TO DELIVER LONG-TERM SHAREHOLDER VALUE THROUGH A COMBINATION OF GROWTH AND FREE CASH FLOW Free Cash Flow Forecast Free Cash Flow Optionality Surplus cash flow may be directed to any one or combination of options, dependent on business and market conditions, including: Debt repayment Growth Return to shareholders * For illustrative purposes only INVESTOR PRESENTATION

10 2018 Capital Investment Plan WITH THE TURNAROUND AND ESSENTIALLY ALL emsagp GROWTH CAPITAL COMPLETE, 2H18 WILL FOCUS ON PHASE 2B BROWNFIELD EXPANSION Revised Capital Investment Plan $ millions emsagp growth capital emvapex and future growth capital Phase 2B brownfield expansion. Sustaining and maintenance Field infrastructure, corporate & other. Total 2018 Capital Investment. $100 $90 $170 $250 $60 $670 * $330MM spent in 1H18 Over 98% of 2018 capital is dedicated towards high-return projects to develop Christina Lake * Revised from the previously announced $700 million to reflect improved capital cost efficiencies INVESTOR PRESENTATION

11 Strong Operational Performance ACHIEVED RECORD PRODUCTION OF 98,000 BPD IN JULY 2018 WITH INDIVIDUAL DAYS EXCEEDING 100,000 BPD, SUPPORTING IMPROVED GUIDANCE Historical Production Operational Guidance $4.50 to $5.00 per barrel Non-energy operating costs Reduced from original guidance of $4.75 to 5.25/bbl 87,000 to 90,000 bpd Average production Increased from original guidance of 85,000 to 88,000 bpd ~100,000 bpd 2018 exit production INVESTOR PRESENTATION

12 Reservoir Enhancement with emsagp* A MODIFICATION OF SAGD Inject non-condensable gas (NCG) to maintain reservoir pressure, reducing steam injection by >50% via scavenging heat from hot reservoir rocks, while sustaining production in the original SAGD wells. The net amount of gas injected is significantly less than the Warmed bitumen is pushed toward infill well by pressure difference and gravity Freed-up steam is re-diverted to new SAGD well pairs to increase production. amount saved through SOR reduction. * enhanced Modified Steam and Gas Push, Canadian Patent 2,776,704 ** Steam and Gas Push (SAGP) is an invention by Dr. Roger Butler INVESTOR PRESENTATION

13 Phase 1 and 2 emsagp Performance emsagp INCREASES RECOVERY AT LOWER SORS Phase 1 has resulted in a >50% SOR reduction and an estimated 10% increase in recovery relative to SAGD Phase 2, which is ~10x the size of Phase 1, has demonstrated similar success Phases 1 and 2 Overall Performance Recovery to Date Average SOR Initial SAGD Phase 28% 2.6 emsagp Phase (in progress) 35% 1.6 Cumulative Progress 63% 2.1 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

14 emvapex Conceptual Model A MODIFICATION OF emsagp Inject condensable gas (CG) to: Warmed bitumen mixed with light hydrocarbon is pushed toward infill well by pressure difference and gravity Maintain reservoir pressure, reducing steam injection to near zero Dilute the warm bitumen to further improve viscosity Partly de-asphalt the bitumen improving API gravity and value of product Freed-up steam is re-diverted to new SAGD well pairs to increase production. INVESTOR PRESENTATION

15 Maximizing Revenue Per Barrel MEG S HUB & SPOKE MARKETING STRATEGY USES A NETWORK OF PIPELINES, RAIL AND STORAGE FACILITIES TO ACCESS WORLD MARKETS & MITIGATE EGRESS RISK Marketing Network U.S. Gulf Coast Secure transport on Flanagan South / Seaway for 50,000 bpd doubling to 100,000 bpd in mid-2020 West Coast Shipper on Trans Mountain Expansion Rail Access Rail loading capacity of up to 20,000 25,000 bbl/d Storage Facilities North American storage network with ~2.4 million bbl/d of capacity INVESTOR PRESENTATION

16 Growing Canadian Heavy Imports to USGC CANADIAN HEAVY CRUDE IS GAINING MARKET SHARE AT USGC, PROVIDING STABLE VOLUMES TO GLOBAL MARKET Canadian Heavy Crude Oil Imports to PADD III Market Share at USGC Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.(July 2018.) All data as of April Heavy crude defined as an API gravity less than 27. INVESTOR PRESENTATION

17 MEG s Gulf Coast Advantage MEG RECEIVES SUPERIOR NETBACKS AT USGC WITH FIXED TRANSPORT OF 50,000 BPD DOUBLING TO 100,000 BPD IN MID-2020 Prices shown USD discount vs WTI v All values shown are per barrel 2Q18 2H18F* *Indicative pricing as of August 2, 2018 Average WCS vs Edmonton/PADD II -$ $25.00 Approximate Transportation (Hardisty to USGC) -$7 to 8 -$7 to 8 Average WCS vs USGC -$2.15 -$2.50 Approximate Netback Improvement at USGC Via Pipe ~$9.65 ~$15.00 MEG expects to deliver 30,000 to 35,000 bpd to USGC in 2H18 The table is reflective of WCS spot pricing. MEG s realization will vary as the Company sells AWB blend, which typically trades at a $1-3/bbl discount to WCS. At the USGC, MEG has committed forward sales at a fixed price in 2H18, which will also impact realized pricing. USGC spot price for 2H18 forecasted to provide ~US$15/bbl uplift vs PADD II INVESTOR PRESENTATION

18 Environmental Performance MEG S FOCUS ON TECHNOLOGY AND ITS COMMITMENT TO ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP HAS RESULTED IN REDUCTIONS TO GHG EMISSIONS, WATER USE AND OPERATIONAL FOOTPRINT *MEG s net GHG data has been third-party verified. In-situ industry average estimate is calculated based on the most recent reported data to Environment Canada, Alberta Energy Regulator, and Alberta Electric System Operator. Net GHG intensity includes the benefit of cogeneration for MEG and applicable industry peers. INVESTOR PRESENTATION

19 Continued Efficiency Gains Drive Lower Costs HIGHLY-ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTED TO FURTHER REDUCE CASH COSTS BY $3 PER BARREL BY 2020 Per barrel costs and netbacks are calculated based on sales volume ** Net finance expense includes net interest expense, accretion on provisions, unrealized gain/loss on derivative financial liabilities and realized gain/loss on interest rate swaps INVESTOR PRESENTATION

20 Appendix INVESTOR PRESENTATION September 2018

21 Balance Sheet Management FOCUSED ON FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE BALANCE SHEET TO BE WELL-POSITIONED THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE Debt Maturities C$564MM Cash Position US$2,782MM Total Debt INVESTOR PRESENTATION

22 Hedging Program WITH CASH RESERVES, HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES AND LOWER ANTICIPATED LEVELS OF CAPITAL SPEND IN 2019, THE PERCENTAGE OF BARRELS HEDGED IS EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER GOING FORWARD Crude oil hedges in place as of August 1, 2018 in US$ * Percentage of hedged volumes are based on the mid-point of 2018 annual production guidance of 87,000-90,000 bpd and assumes a blend ratio of 0.45 barrel of diluent per barrel of bitumen INVESTOR PRESENTATION

23 Substantial Reserves and Resources REGULATORY APPROVAL IN PLACE OR IN PROCESS FOR NEARLY 500,000 BPD OF POTENTIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT * 2018 production guidance Evaluated by GLJ Exploration lands Proved and Probable Reserves barrels in millions Proved 1,399 Probable 1,437 2,836 Based on GLJ Reserve Report dated effective as of December 31, 2017 INVESTOR PRESENTATION

24 Notes INVESTOR PRESENTATION

25 Investor Relations September 2018 Helen Kelly Director, Investor Relations John Rogers VP, Investor Relations and External Communications