Secular bull market to continue after mid-year correction
|
|
- Cameron Jessie Welch
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 This is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors APRIL 2014 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Secular bull market to continue after mid-year correction Jeff Hochman says we are likely to see a modest market consolidation or correction in the short term to absorb gains made in 2013, before the secular bull market accelerates again later this year or early next. As global equities are made up of 85% European and US constituents, they are supported by the strengthening US economy, excess liquidity in the form of quantitative easing, and to a lesser extent increasing optimism about European recovery. Very close attention should be paid to just how effective policy support will be in Japan. In general, investors are keen to see earnings coming through this year in developed markets to support the higher valuations as these markets rerated higher in CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK The US leads the ongoing secular bull in global equities Despite an increase in sector rotation, the S&P 500 achieved new highs in April. This break to new highs started just under a year ago when the S&P 500 confirmed the transition from a secular bear to a secular bull market. But while developed market equities have recovered to pre-financial crisis levels, the outlook will remain uncertain in the short term. The technical situation in Japan has deteriorated more than was expected in the first quarter as foreign investors nervously pulled out money from the country. Investors are concerned about the level of Japanese policy support and the impact of this month s consumer tax hike from 5% to 8%. If the outlook weakens, we could see a further 5-10% drop in the Japanese market. After five very strong years of the current secular bull, a pause, followed by a large trading range in 2014 to digest all the gains and confirm the breakout, is therefore possible. In history there have been correction periods of one-three years in the mid- 1940s and early 1980s following exits from long-lasting secular bears. Jeff Hochman is Director of Technical Analysis and a member of Fidelity s Asset Allocation Group. Before he joined Fidelity in 1996, Jeff spent five years with Deutsche Bank as an equity analyst and strategist, and worked for Chase Manhattan Bank prior to that. Jeff holds a Masters degree in International Management and a BA in Political Science and English Literature. The search for yield continues and sentiment is strengthening The lack of apparent earnings and in many cases revenue growth continues to be a key risk in equity markets in Developed markets have already rerated with higher PEs and now have valuations which are considered to range from fair value to expensive, depending on an investor s individual viewpoint. The recent tactical moves and sector rotations continue to offer investors opportunities. Stock picking has become more challenging as valuation dispersions decrease The risk-on/risk-off dominance faded dramatically in 2013, allowing stock pickers to enjoy a tailwind as volatility and intra-sector performance dispersions fell. That said, valuation dispersions have also decreased from 2012 levels, so not as many stocks stand out as clear anomalies, creating a more challenging environment for investors. Healthcare maintains market leadership The healthcare sector and to some extent the technology sector are clear-cut favourites in terms of market leadership, but these are well-known stories. Yet with intra-sector dispersion low, there are still ample stock-picking opportunities in sectors such as consumer discretionary and financials, and the consensus sells of consumer staples, materials and energy. Dividends are key to boosting long-term total returns Dividends are crucial to the total returns that investors enjoy over time. The magic of compounding is the single most important determinant of long-term equity gains and nothing else even comes close to boosting returns like dividends do as they compound over time. Especially in years like in 2014 when price action might correct/consolidate, owning dividend-growing stocks will likely be a winning combination.
2 Japan: can policy support help lift the equity market again? The central question about the Japanese equity market is: what has happened to the momentum behind the fifth wave of expansionary breakout in the Japanese stock market? How quickly perception changes it now appears that Japanese equities are resting on key policy support. So, there will be close scrutiny of how the market performs in 2014 to ascertain whether the impact of Abenomics is delivering positive effects. Emerging markets: small caps still offer some favourable opportunities So far in 2014, there are few technical signs that emerging markets will reverse their underperformance versus developed markets, but currently they are staging a small recovery rally as many investors have capitulated and sold all their holdings. In absolute terms, emerging markets have only fallen about 6% in US dollar terms since the asset class hit its relative peak versus the US equity market in September In relative terms, however, emerging markets continue on a steady downward path. It is evident though that this trend is dominated by the fate of large-cap companies, while many smaller companies continue to perform quite well. Importantly, there are very strong country and sector variations within the broad theme of emerging markets. Short-term interest rates to remain low this year Short-term interest rates are likely to remain low in 2014, but it will be important to maintain a watchful outlook as the year progresses for any early signs of rates increasing. Similarly, although long rates will eventually rise towards 4% in the US, it might take longer to reach this level than we have previously thought, with the lower end of the 12-month ranges currently being tested in both the US and the eurozone. Confirming the 2013 secular breakout in 2014? Chart 1. Source: 2014 Ned Davis Research The Cycle Model Composite has been a very effective measure of predicting the general market trends since the 1920s, and extremely well during the past five years. The four-year and 10-year cycles should dominate in 2014, which predict a flat or downward-moving Q2-Q3, followed by a strong Q4. The Cycle Composite (see chart above) suggests a soft patch now followed by more upside later this is illustrated in the red line at the far top-right of the chart. If a correction/pullback unfolds in 2014, it should start within the next few months. While there are of course signs of sentiment froth now, such as IPOs, and biotech and technology PEs, the market is not the same as it was in 1987 or A slowdown in G7 growth lead indicators provides the macro backdrop to justify a scenario of consolidation. Despite a possible pause in the uptrend over the next 15 months or so, the US and European equity markets are poised to continue their new secular adventure, most likely at the expense of commodities, which are expected to move sideways to downwards over the next few years.
3 Waiting for EPS support to shine through this year Chart 2. Source: Datastream. Generally, the consensus analyst forecast of double-digit EPS growth in 2014 remains very optimistic and is starkly contrasted with the bottom-up analysts that are still downgrading the average stock in all regions ex-japan. Europe s rally has been almost exclusively achieved through rerating rather than growth in EPS, while in the US EPS growth has been modest at best. The chart above shows the contribution of both EPS and PE rerating and derating since March It is still difficult to conceive of much more multiple expansion coming through as a contributor to further gains without seeing earnings actually increase. Low inflation may be the kicker to keep PEs higher for longer before a valuation-induced correction, which will only be apparent in hindsight. Real money continues to flow into the HY space, less in Europe and Japan, and less out of emerging markets Charts 3 and 4. Source: Deutsche Bank, EPFR Real money continues to flow into the high yield space with strong daily inflows into European high yield. The volume of equity now flowing into European and Japanese equities has reduced somewhat, while outflows continue in emerging markets, but at a much slower pace than in recent quarters. However, there are some concerns about the level of inflows into passive funds. Approximately 85% of the flows into the US have been via ETFs over the past 12 months. Over the same period, the level of ETF inflows has been more or less half in Europe compared with the level we are seeing in the US. In addition, ETF volumes in Europe are starting to follow the US example and pick up market share.
4 Social Network Analysis shows continued growth in global sector correlations Charts 5 and 6. Source: ASR Research, London Social Network Analysis shows continuing growth in global sector correlations. In the second half of 2013, the global sector map is loosely grouped. There are four clusters with an average 2.5 members and 14 sectors are not in any group. There are only six positive correlations and 10 negative correlations on the map (threshold > 0.4). In the first quarter of this year, this sector map remains loosely grouped, but the cluster size is larger. There are four clusters with an average 3.25 members and 11 sectors are not in any group. There are 12 positive correlations and 16 negative correlations on the map. Various sectors are offering very attractive stock-picking opportunities Charts 7. Source: Deutsche Bank Equity Quant Strategy Group With healthcare maintaining market leadership, investors can still enjoy stock-picking opportunities in other sectors, even the consensus sells of staples, materials and energy. In the first quarter of this year, the utilities sector became more appealing, and the outlook for European utilities has stabilised somewhat, especially as bond yields and inflation remain subdued. The consumer discretionary theme is still alive, yet if rates and petrol prices rise too fast this sector is usually the first to be sold, especially if housingrelated stocks come under pressure. The current market environment is much more about individual stock-picking opportunities rather than sector rotation, which is important for the market to remember. With a 25% sector weighting in the broad index, picking the correct financial stocks is very critical at this stage of the game as there are clear winners and losers.
5 Japanese equities are now resting on key Bank of Japan support Near term key support Charts 8. Source: Bloomberg After January s failed breakout, price action has taken a notable turn for the worse and as the Japanese yen strengthened there is hope that the recent setback will stop at February s lows. That said, we could see another 10% drop in the Japanese market. So, the focus going forward will be on how the Bank of Japan will act to support the decline and help boost the next breakout. Few technical signs that EMG will reverse underperformance vs developed EMG Index Charts 9. Source: Bloomberg Outflows from the emerging market funds, particularly ETFs, has been indiscriminate when it comes to large- and small-cap holdings as well as good- and poor-quality companies. The net result is that there are now many oversold stock-picking opportunities available, especially in the consumer and financials sectors. For example, it is clear that the large-versus-small divide is still alive and well, particularly in China. While the composite index and large caps are not doing so well, small and mid caps and small and micro caps are doing very well. The current emerging market correction is nothing new it has happened many times before and each time has led to fantastic buying opportunities for selective securities as the markets mature.
6 US (top) UK (bottom) long and short rates are likely to stay lower for longer Charts 10. Source: Datastream, FIL If UK rates look like US rates, it is because they are tracking each other very closely. Short-term interest rates are likely to remain low in In essence, we will need to see a clean break above 3% in both US 10-year Treasuries and Gilts to confirm any strong conviction in a rising rates environment. The markets are speculating that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will raise short rates much sooner than they say they will, and 10-year rates will rise towards 4% end of Inflation seems to under control in most markets, with the exception of rising food prices in emerging markets.
7 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AT FIDELITY At Fidelity, technical analysis provides a tactical analysis that is used to support our fundamental research. Technical insights provide additional information to the investment teams that can be used to corroborate and support their investment decisions. A value-added tactical tool that complements our fundamental research. The primary goal is to increase the level of conviction in the decision-making process. It can provide a reality check to the assumptions made by fund managers and analysts. It provides an element of risk control for our retail and institutional funds. IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document is for Investment Professionals only, and should not be relied upon by private investors. The value of investments [and the income from them] can go down as well as up and clients may get back less than they invest. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. The price of bonds is influenced by movements in interest rates, changes in the credit rating of bond issuers, and other factors such as inflation and market dynamics. In general, as interest rates rise the price of a bond will fall (and vice versa). Bonds with a longer time to maturity are generally affected to a greater degree. The risk of default is based on the issuer's ability to make interest payments and to repay the loan at maturity. Default risk may therefore vary between different government issuers as well as between different corporate issuers. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus, which is available along with the Key Investor Information Document, current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge on request by calling Issued by FIL Investments International, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. IC14-26
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationNovember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:
More informationEquity Market Review and Outlook
REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Q3 2016 Equity Market Review and Outlook By Richard Skaggs, CFA, VP, Senior Equity Strategist KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks rallied handily in the third quarter, led by global markets. The Fed
More informationoutlook : us and european HIGH YIELD bond IN 2011
outlook : us and european HIGH YIELD bond IN 211 january 211 AT A GLANCE Expect mid-to-high single digit returns from high yield in 211 Company fundamentals are favourable and valuations are around fair
More informationCapital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017
Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017 Key Observations After diverging in 2016, fundamentals once again drove performance in 1Q17 There is a resurgence in earnings
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy & Outlook For 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy & Outlook For 2009 December 17, 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact:
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationUS Financial Market Update for March Prepared for the Market Technicians Association
US Financial Market Update for March 2016 Prepared for the Market Technicians Association March 16 th, 2016 About Asbury Research Research, Methodology & Clientele Our Research: Asbury Research, established
More informationWILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationRisk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels
Risk of Policy Error Clearly Rising Some Key Charts and Index Levels 4 th March 2018 What a difference a few weeks make. At the end of January, financial markets were melting up, commentators were salivating
More informationNOT WORTH BEING CUTE SELLING OUT OF EXPENSIVE MARKETS HASN T ADDED VALUE HISTORICALLY
INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMENTARY NOT WORTH BEING CUTE SELLING OUT OF EXPENSIVE MARKETS HASN T ADDED VALUE HISTORICALLY October 27, 2017 Some investors are expressing concern about stock market valuations
More informationInternational Fund Solutions Investment Review and Outlook
Fund Solutions Investment Review and Outlook Fund Solutions Market update Q3 2017 In a move that was widely expected, the US Federal Reserve announced that it will be the first central bank to start unwinding
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. April RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of March 29, 2018, unless otherwise noted
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationAustralian Equity IMPROVING OUTLOOK FOR A TRANSITIONING ECONOMY
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. PRICE POINT December 2015 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Australian Equity IMPROVING OUTLOOK FOR A TRANSITIONING ECONOMY
More information2012 US HIGH YIELD MARKET OUTLOOK
Q1: What are the impacts of the prolonged interest rate environment, fiscal budget tightening and possible QE3 to the US High Yield Market? So, it's really impossible to look at each of those variables
More informationMarket Outlook Considerations Week Beginning January 29, 2018
Market Outlook Considerations Week Beginning January 29, 2018 DISCLAIMER-FOR-EDUCATIONAL-PURPOSES-ONLY Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness University
More informationTarget Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Target Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2017
Gundlach s Forecast for 2017 January 11, 2017 by Robert Huebscher Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response,
More informationOutsourced Investment Management
Outsourced Investment Management Quarterly Commentary Second Quarter 2017 The first half of 2017 was a goldilocks environment for investments. United States GDP growth was steady in the first quarter,
More informationSIP Aggressive Portfolio
SIP LIFESTYLE PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET (NOV 2015) SIP Aggressive Portfolio SIP Aggressive Portfolio is a unitized fund, which is designed to provide long term capital growth. It is designed for those who
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationBULL MARKETS DON T DIE OF OLD AGE
BULL MARKETS DON T DIE OF OLD AGE Issue #11 September/October 2017 Multi asset views from RLAM Royal London Asset Management manages 106.2 billion in life insurance, pensions and third party funds*. The
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More informationViews expressed at the July Face to Face with Fidelity in Boston
Daniel Dupont and Hugo Lavallée s Perspectives on Canadian Equities Dan Dupont manages a number of Fidelity Funds, including Fidelity Concentrated Value Private Pool. The Pool typically has between 20
More informationHigh Dividend Value Equity Q Commentary. Market Review:
S C H A F E R C U L L E N High Dividend Value Equity Q3 2016 Commentary Market Review: C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T In the third quarter of 2016, the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 Value returned 3.9% and
More informationPicton Mahoney Asset Management Synergy Funds
Picton Mahoney Asset Management Synergy Funds Investors emotions remain fickle. In late April, the market seemed convinced that the global economy would be on a high-growth recovery. By the end of June,
More informationKBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRESENTATION. Defensive August 2017
KBC INVESTMENT STRATEGY PRESENTATION August 2017 Investment climate Key rate trends and outlook 2,0 2,0 1,5 VS EMU 1,5 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0-0,5-0,5 - - 07-2012 07-2013 07-2014 07-2015 07-2016 07-2017 07-2018
More informationHSBC World Selection Portfolio Quarterly Report Q4 2018
HSBC World Selection Portfolio Quarterly Report Q4 2018 Date: January 2019 This commentary provides a high-level overview of the recent economic environment and is for information purposes only. It is
More informationThree Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks
Three Reasons to Consider Bank Stocks July 3, 207 by Nick Kalivas of Invesco Valuations and regulations are among the trends that we re watching in this industry Bank stocks have spun their wheels for
More informationRetirement Funds. SEMIANNual REPORT
SEMIANNual REPORT November 30, 2017 T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds The funds invest in a diversified portfolio of T. Rowe Price mutual funds, offering a professionally managed, age-appropriate mix of stocks
More informationFinancial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks John Praveen
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. January RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of December 31, 2018, unless otherwise
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. December RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of market close, December 1, 2017, unless
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook April 2014 Stocks to Rebound & Post Further Gains as Global Growth Strengthens after Q1 Soft Patch, Earnings Rebound, Low Interest
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More information2018 Stock Market Outlook: Double-Digit Returns?
2018 Stock Market Outlook: Double-Digit Returns? January 4, 2018 by John Lynch of LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS We forecast 8 10% returns for the S&P 500 in 2018. The S&P 500 is well positioned to generate
More informationASR Market Scenario Analyser
ASR Market Scenario Analyser europe in a global context 2013 ASR Market Scenario Analyser (MSA) USER GUIDE The ASR Market Scenario Analyser (MSA) platform provides clients with a platform on which to analyse
More informationNavigating the New Environment
Navigating the New Environment May 12, 2018 by Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop & Brad Sorensen of Charles Schwab Key Points U.S. stock indexes have rebounded from their correction lows, although remain
More informationSeven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update
Schroders Seven-year asset class forecast returns, 2015 update Craig Botham Emerging Markets Economist Introduction Our seven-year returns forecast builds on the same methodology which has been applied
More informationGlobal Investment Strategy
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationInternational & Global Commentaries
International & Global Commentaries Market Review International Equity Global Select Looking Ahead Market Review In aggregate, global equities posted positive returns in the first quarter, with developed
More informationJ. STERN & CO. The Value of Long Term Investing. Monthly Commentary
Monthly Commentary 2016 has been an eventful year with solid economic performance in the US and in Europe, resilient markets and significant and unexpected political changes. It has so far delivered solid
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2017)
Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2017) October 31, 2017 Bank of Japan The Bank's View 1 Summary Japan's economy is likely to continue expanding on the back of highly accommodative financial
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
October - November 2012 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* Global Investment Strategy: Maintain Equity Overweight as Q3 Stock Market Rally
More informationMonthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets
Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets November 11 th, 2017 Monthly Investment Compass 1) Executive Summary: November 11 th, 2017 U.S. Stock Market: Unmet upside targets in several
More informationMarket Bulletin. 1Q15 Earnings season recap: The value of a dollar. May 13, In Brief. Summary
Market Bulletin May 13, 2015 1Q15 Earnings season recap: The value of a dollar James C. Liu, CFA Executive Director Global Market Strategist Abigail B. Dwyer Market Analyst In Brief We estimate that first
More informationFactor Performance in Emerging Markets
Investment Research Factor Performance in Emerging Markets Taras Ivanenko, CFA, Director, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Alex Lai, CFA, Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager/Analyst Factors can be defined
More informationFund Managers Get Bullish
Fund Managers Get Bullish November 15, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts
More informationMulti-Asset Outlook 2017: More Growth, More Inflation, More Politics
Multi-Asset Outlook 2017: More Growth, More Inflation, More Politics January 11, 2017 by Paul O Connor of Henderson Global Investors Paul O Connor, Head of Multi-Asset, reviews 2016 s lessons, and details
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationMarket Overview. Australian Shares
Market Overview Australian Shares Australian shares were weakening even before the global late August squall and were always likely to travel badly when market conditions turned bumpy: o For the quarter,
More informationKoji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy
Koji Ishida: Japan s economy, price developments and monetary policy Speech by Mr Koji Ishida, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Fukuoka, 18 February
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationMarket Outlook March 2015 Euro equities: Beyond political risks. By Citi EMEA Consumer Bank
Market Outlook March 2015 Euro equities: Beyond political risks By Citi EMEA Consumer Bank Equities Markets Feature On 22 January 2015, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its long-awaited large
More informationMonthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets
Monthly Investment Compass Charting The Course Of The Markets April 22 nd, 2016 Monthly Investment Compass Executive Summary: April 22 nd 2016 U.S. Stock Market: The most important takeaway from the latest
More informationGrowth and Value Investing: A Complementary Approach
Growth and Value Investing: A Complementary Approach March 14, 2018 by Stephen Dover, Norman Boersma of Franklin Templeton Investments Growth and value investing are often seen as competing styles, with
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 3rd Quarter 2017 Economic overview Economic data released during the quarter seemed to signal a continuation of synchronised global recovery in almost all regions. This is being
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy June 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationEQUITY STRATEGY FOCUS January, 2018
EQUITY STRATEGY FOCUS January, 2018 IN VIEW: The Equity Landscape Equity prices are trading at levels that are more reflective of future expectations rather than current economic data. To date, U.S. consumer
More informationArmstrong Investment Managers LLP. Investment Outlook Q1 2017
Armstrong Investment Managers LLP Investment Outlook Q1 2017 Trump & Brexit The combination of the Brexit outcome and Donald Trump s victory in the US presidential election has opened the doors for a new
More informationLeith Wheeler Investment Funds Quarterly Review December 31, 2016
Leith Wheeler Investment Funds Quarterly Review December 31, 2016 MER 3 Mo. 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs % % % % % % LW Canadian Equity Fund 1.49 8.3 28.9 6.3 10.9 5.4 LW Canadian Dividend Fund 1.49 9.4 29.6
More informationCredit Outlook Are market expectations too good to be true? For Investment Professionals only Market Insights
218 Market Insights For Investment Professionals only An update from the Fixed Income team Credit Outlook 218 Are market expectations too good to be true? Ben Bennett is the Head of Credit Strategy, focusing
More informationUBS Global Allocation Fund
UBS Global Allocation Fund Strategy Update December 31, 2017 Morningstar category Share class: Ticker/billing symbols World Allocation OE A: BNGLX C: BNPCX P: BPGLX MFPWGM MFPWGO MFPWGP Strategy summary
More informationSPX Earnings Aligning Expectations With Economic Reality
Michael Purves Chief Global Strategist & Head of Derivatives Research 203 861 7725 mpurves@weedenco.com June 20, 2017 SPX Earnings Aligning Expectations With Economic Reality Summary We are reducing our
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationASF Hong Kong Market Report
HONG KONG ECONOMY ASF 2016 - Hong Kong Market Report Background As everyone knows, Hong Kong has a very good geographic location, it is surround by sea and backup by a huge China market. HK has taken a
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Financial Market Outlook: After Strong Gains
More informationLOW VOLATILITY: THE CASE FOR A STRATEGIC ALLOCATION IN A RISING RATE ENVIRONMENT
MFS White Capability Paper Series Focus Month February 212 217 Authors James C. Fallon Portfolio Manager Quantitative Solutions Christopher C. Callahan Regional Head North American Institutional R. Dino
More informationEARNINGS UPDATE: FIVE OBSERVATIONS COMMENTARY FIVE KEY OBSERVATIONS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS Fourth quarter earnings season has not been a blowout by any stretch, but growth has been solid and puts the earnings recession further in the rear view
More informationJune 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating
June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2015 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Stocks likely to Post Solid Gains in 2015 Fuelled by Fresh QE Stimulus in Eurozone
More informationA Dramatic Rebound for Small-Caps
A Dramatic Rebound for Small-Caps January 4, 207 by Francis Gannon of The Royce Funds 206 was a terrific year for small-cap stocks that included some key reversals: The Russell 2000 turned around 205's
More informationPERFORMANCE STUDY 2013
US EQUITY FUNDS PERFORMANCE STUDY 2013 US EQUITY FUNDS PERFORMANCE STUDY 2013 Introduction This article examines the performance characteristics of over 600 US equity funds during 2013. It is based on
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 12 th March 2019 Earnings to weigh on emerging market equities A slowdown in both the United States and Chinese economies will weigh heavily on export growth in the
More informationDiversified Growth Funds (DGF)
Diversified Growth Funds (DGF) Stick or twist April 2017 kpmg.com/uk Diversified Growth Funds (DGF) 2 Executive summary Over the past 10 years Diversified Growth Fund (DGF) investing has grown in popularity,
More informationMarket Maps. Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group. March RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group
Market Maps Bob Dickey, Technical Strategist, Portfolio Advisory Group RBC Capital Markets, LLC / Portfolio Advisory Group All values in U.S. dollars and priced as of February 28, 2019, unless otherwise
More informationSecond Quarter 2017 Investment Perspectives
Second Quarter 2017 Investment Perspectives Economic and Financial Markets Review & Outlook Covenant Asset Management is pleased to offer our latest investment perspectives. In this publication we review
More informationFirst Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: K2 Advisors
First Quarter Hedge-Fund Strategy Outlook: K2 Advisors January 24, 2018 by David Saunders, Brooks Ritchey, Robert Christian of Franklin Templeton Investments In their first-quarter (Q1) 2018 outlook, K2
More informationTaking Stock of the Market s Mood
LEADERSHIP SERIES JUNE 2017 A feature article from our U.S. partners Taking Stock of the Market s Mood International stocks continue to outperform, while U.S. equity returns may be choppy and more subdued
More informationInvestment Strategy Outlook
Baird Market & Investment Strategy Investment Strategy Outlook October 19, 2017 Please refer to Appendix Important Disclosures. Weight of Evidence Offers Bullish Message Outlook Summary Highlights: Central
More informationThe Case for Growth. Investment Research
Investment Research The Case for Growth Lazard Quantitative Equity Team Companies that generate meaningful earnings growth through their product mix and focus, business strategies, market opportunity,
More informationThemes in bond investing
For professional investors only Not for public distribution Themes in bond investing June Asia 2011 2009 outlook Introduction Asian markets enjoyed a Goldilocks economic scenario in 2010 that helped them
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationThemes in bond investing June 2009
For professional investors only Not for public distribution March 2011 Themes in bond investing June 2009 Japan outlook: Will Japanese equities jump in the Year of the Rabbit? Introduction There is no
More informationThe Stock Market's Final Four
The Stock Market's Final Four April 2, 2019 by John Lynch of LPL Financial The NCAA Final Four is set. On the men s side, Auburn, Michigan State, Texas Tech, and Virginia are headed to Minneapolis to determine
More informationAsbury Research s US Investment Analysis: A Review of Q Prepared for Interactive Brokers
Asbury Research s US Investment Analysis: A Review of Q1 2016 Prepared for Interactive Brokers April 14 th. 2016 About Asbury Research Research, Methodology & Clientele Our Research: Asbury Research, established
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook February 2015 Stocks to Fully Rebound from Late 2014/Early 2015 Sell-off with ECB Launching Aggressive QE, Rate Cuts by Several
More informationAre we in a risk-off rally?
November 4 th, 13 Are we in a risk-off rally? MARTIN LEFEBVRE Asset Allocation and Investment Strategist (514) 412-8572 martin.lefebvre@bnc.ca Monthly review Stock markets around the globe enjoyed a hefty
More informationA PIVOTAL OCTOBER. Issue #14. October 2018
A PIVOTAL OCTOBER Issue #14 October 2018 Stock markets tend to post their best returns from October to April but October itself can be the most volatile month of the year. The tug of war between good news
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation
Portfolio Strategist Update from The Dreyfus Corporation Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Dec. 31, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. (Ameriprise Financial) is the investment manager for Active
More informationFOURTH QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We expect a solid fourth quarter earnings season and believe a 14 16% year-over-year increase in S&P 5 earnings is achievable. Economic surprises, strong
More informationWhy Active Now in U.S. Large-Cap Equity
LEADERSHIP SERIES Why Active Now in U.S. Large-Cap Equity With changing economic and market conditions, the time may be right for actively managed U.S. large-cap funds to take the lead. Darby Nielson,
More informationFive key investment themes for 2015
Five key investment themes for 2015 Exiting QE in the US was always going to be a path of uncertainty for central bankers, globally and for markets and investors. There is simply no exact precedent for
More information