... and swaps, and why maybe you

Transcription

1 Old-fashioned is sometimes better than all this new- fangled stuff... The sloppy connection between ETPs and futures contracts... and swaps, and why maybe you should stay away from these assets 2017 Gary R. Evans. This slide set by Gary R. Evans is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

2 Grade distribution for exam 2: Add 8 points to the score on your exam, then find your score in this distribution: Grade distribution Second exam E104 F17 Bottom of Grade Bracket No. Equiv A A B B B C C C D Below 10 F /

3 How a delta ETP can be collateralized with futures contracts the rules Remembering that Maximum leverage = Notional Value / Initial Margin The actual leverage you earn is Actual leverage = Notional Value / Cash in account 1. A long ETP holds long futures contracts, an inverse holds short futures contracts. 2. For a 1X ETP, Notional Value = Cash in account 3. For a 2X ETP, Notional Value = 2X Cash in account 4. For an αx ETP, Notional Value = αx Cash in account 5. Assets of the ETP equals the cash, not the notional value of the futures contracts. The size of the initial & maintenance margins are not relevant.

4 Using these rules, let s build our own ETPs!! Building four Gold ETPs Cash available per ETP [total NAV]: $100,000,000 Total number of ETP shares: 10,000,000 NAV per share: $10 Gold futures contract size: 100 troy ounces Gold futures price: $1, Gold spot price [memo]: $1, Margin [memo]: $6,000 Symbol Futures position Number of contracts Total Notional Value GLD1L 1X long 815 $100,000,000 GLD3L 3X long 2445 $300,000,000 GLD1S 1 X short 815 $100,000,000 GLD3S 3X short 2445 $300,000,000

5 The requirements/objective of building an ETP: 1. The ETP's total NAV will equal the total cash value of the ETP's assets (and not the notional value of the ETP's futures contracts). 2. The ETP's per-share NAV will equal to total NAV divided by the number of shares outstanding. 3. [1X - cash equals notional value of futures contracts]: When the value of the futures contract changes by X% daily, then because of settlement, a. the total cash value changes by X%, b. therefore the total NAV changes by X%, c. therefore the per-share NAV changes by X%, d. therefore the ETP NAV is tracking the futures contract tprice perfectly, e. but that does not mean that it is tracking the spot perfectly, because the futures price does not necessarily track the spot price and the futures delta does not necessarily match the futures delta. 4. [2X - cash equals notional value of futures contracts]: When the value of the futures contract changes by X% daily, then because of settlement, a. the total cash value changes by 2X%, b. therefore the total NAV changes by 2X%, c. therefore the per-share NAV changes by 2X% - hence leverage.

6 Example: How two of these ETPs would track: GLD1L: Contracts 815 GLD3S: Contracts 2445 Date Price Gain Cash Not Val NAV Gain Cash Not Val NAV 0 1, , , , , ,245 1, , , ,401 95, , ,287 3, , , ,269 85, , ,262-2, , , ,113 91, , ,348 7, , , ,027 70, , ,303-3, , , ,003 81, , ,278-2, , , ,113 87, , ,202-6,194 97,963 97, , , ,

7 Let's build our own futures contract... in Bitcoins! Bitcoin Futures Contracts Specifications Contract size: 100 Bitcoins Contract size (e-mini): 10 bitcoins Pricing unit: $ per BC, 3 decimal Iitil Initial margin: i: $4,600 Maintenance margin: $4,000 Initial margin (e-mini): $460 Maintenance margin (e-mini): $400 Last trading day: 3rd Friday of month before Frequency: Quarterly Delivery : Pure financial (auto offset)

8 Now lets's build our own MuddFund Bitcoin ETPs: Building three Bitcoin ETPs Cash per ETP: $10M Dt Date: Spot Price: $ Nov-16 Futures Price: $ Contract size: 100 Margin (F): $4,600 Spot BC or Actual BC or Notional Target Futures L/S Futures Value 1XL Actual BC 14,210 10,000, XL LF ,000,000 1XS SF ,000,000 2XS SF ,000,000

9 Betting on Oil with ETPs... short Assets $11,334, SO: 150,000 NAV: $75.56 The fund has liquid assets and cash of about $11 million

10 Betting on Oil with ETPs... long Assets $2,909,180, SO: 206,000,000 NAV: $14.12 So why do the stated assets appear to be double to declared assets?... a list of 21 more U.S. T-bills Notice that DNO is short and USO is long. See how they do it?

11 USO (+) vs. DNO (-) in 2016 (note that DNO is much flatter in its resonse.. does not track well long run). As a spec trade delta ETPs, these both work well, but clearly these do not track the long-run price, as some investors think they do. Source: finance.yahoo.com

12 USO tracking WSI spot well in 6/14 to 11/ USO was normalized to the price of WTI by multiplying it times The tracking breaks down in /2/ /2/ /2/2016 6/2/2014 7/2/2014 8/2/2014 9/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2014 1/2/2015 2/2/2015 3/2/2015 4/2/2015 5/2/2015 6/2/2015 7/2/2015 8/2/2015 9/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2015 1/2/2016 2/2/2016 3/2/2016 4/2/2016 5/2/2016 6/2/2016 7/2/2016 8/2/2016 WTI USO

13 WPI spot vs. USO: 2016 long-run tracking bias USO failed to rise when WPI spot had its recovery in 2016, although it does not promise to track long-run spot (but do retail investors really understand that)? 0 1/4/16 2/4/16 3/4/16 4/4/16 5/4/16 6/4/16 7/4/16 8/4/16 9/4/16 10/4/16 11/4/16 WTI Spot USO

14 12 month oil fund a more complex contract... etc (T-bills and cash)

15 Warning!! Failure...

16 But... (a rather important point) Futures contracts can be used to hedge against rising (or falling) prices and inflation in general, but if inflationary expectations are robust and inflationary expectations are already priced in futures prices, no good hedge or no hedge at all will be available! That's why when hedging is part of your business or investment strategy, you must either hedge all of the time (including when it may look like you least need to hedge), which involves some cost, or you have to be confident that you have an edge and can move into the market before inflationary expectations push up the price of futures contracts. When futures prices rise as the contracts get more distant, the media and analysts sometimes call this a contango (see the example next slide). The opposite is called "backwardation." [Technical note: In derivatives math modeling, a contango exists only when the futures price is above a carry cost, but the media ignores such refinements. Econ 136 sorts this out].

17 The oil contango of late 2008 This is a 31% spread, far beyond any carry cost! Source: ino.com... can you effectively hedge when this contract is in contago??

18 Example of a Contango Introducing Tracking Bias into a Delta Tracking ETF Secured with Futures B 90 S 87 B 93 B96 S 90 S 93 B 99 S 96 B 102 S 99 S 102 The point: Will a commodity-based ETF that invests in futures see its NAV rise if the spot value of the commodity that it tracks rises month after month? No, is the answer if the futures contracts have a contango built in. In the example above, the NAV stays flat!

19 How contango prevents a futures-based ETP from tracking spot prices Hypothetical Convergence of Prices in Contango over 10 Trading Days NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Contract, t 1,000 barrels, final trading on period 10. Day Futures Spot Net Settle 0 1, During times when the futures contracts are in Contango (example shown for oil in 2008) then all futures are well above spot and all go subsequently higher with duration. These contracts must be rolled over. Therefore you are tending to buy higher than settlement if spot doesn t rise enough to cover the spread.

20 ETNs and Swaps... the new red flag A i t t ith 3 rd t h i t di t f A swap is a contract with a 3 rd party who promises to pay you according to a performance metric (such as 1X inverse DOW) in exchange for a fee, like LIBOR + 3%. The 3 rd party uses the futures contracts... maybe. This is OK as a spec asset but not a retirement asset.

21 Summary statement of the danger... Exam 2 had this question: 1. In your investment portfolio you will likely be able to choose between ETPs and mutual funds for you retirement portfolio. These two asset categories are similar, but they are also different in many respects. [15 pts.] a) In what way are ETPs and mutual funds similar? b) In what way are ETPs and mutual funds different? c) How is it that ETPs are potentially more dangerous than mutual funds in their suitability for retirement accounts? The real answer is that if you (a) understand the actual differences between traditional ETFs, ETNs, and ETPs that are collateralized with futures contracts and (b) do proper research into the ETPs that you are considering, and (c) do not trust "experts" to advise you and (d) realize that some (like bond ETFs) may have serious liquidation problems in a down market, they are not necessarily more dangerous for you. The real problem that most retail investors do not know about or understand these hazards. Many regard all ETPs as similar to traditional ETFs that should track their objectives because they have simple asset portfolios. The retail investor does not know how futures contracts work and how contango and backwardation issues impact their performance. Nor do they really understand liquidity issues. They will some day.