Wakefield Asset Management Large Cap Equity Quarterly Commentary Q as of 6/30/2018
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1 Wakefield Asset Management Large Cap Equity Quarterly Commentary Q as of 6/30/2018 Gross Performance S&P 500 Quarter In Review Q YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Since Incep on U.S. Large Cap equity markets posted moderate returns during the second quarter with the S&P 500 advancing 3.4% despite heightened geopoli cal tensions, trade war concerns and a strengthening U.S. Dollar. The Energy, Technology and Consumer Discre onary sectors led the way and growth stocks outperformed value stocks by almost 9%, con nuing a long term trend. A fla ening yield curve weighed on Financial stocks. The sector was one of the worst performers during the quarter and declined for 13 straight days during the month of June. Industrial companies were also weak on concerns synchronized global growth may be slowing and could lead to less capex spending going forward. We ve yet to see a second quarter GDP figure, however, the closely watched GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed pegs growth around 4% for the quarter. Corporate earnings are expected to grow by just over 20% year over year for the quarter and approximately the same amount for the third and fourth quarters according to Thomson Reuters. Second Quarter Performance Review The Por olio returned 1.61% for the quarter, trailing the S&P 500. For the year the Portfolio remains slightly ahead of the S&P 500. Holdings in the Health Care (up 22.17% versus 3.33% for the S&P 500) and Consumer Staples (up 5.61% versus 2.22% for the S&P 500) sectors were the best performing during the quarter. Align Technologies, makers of Invisalign invisible braces, was up 36.24% for the quarter, building on its strong performance during the first quarter. The company reported earnings of $1.17 versus a $.98 es mate and advanced 5.8% on that day alone. Macy s returned 28.42% during the quarter a er exceeding earnings es mates by nearly 14% and giving upbeat guidance for the year. Following a challenging 2017 campaign, the stock s ll trades at just 9.6x this year s earnings. Holdings in the Informa on Technology sector (up 1.37% versus up 7.04% for the S&P 500) contributed the most to the strategy s underperformance during the second quarter. Applied Materials declined 16.61% as investors worried about weak guidance related to their smartphone products. The por olio was also nearly 7.5% underweight Technology stocks during the quarter as the sector has grown to over 25% of the market cap weighted S&P 500, well above its historical average. Posi ons in the Energy sector ( 5.43% versus up 13.54% for the S&P 500) also hurt performance. Concho Resources was down 17.2% for the quarter despite bea ngs earnings expecta ons and crude oil trading at mul year highs. We sold Concho during the quarter a er our analysis concluded the company would see more negative revisions to future earnings estimates. During the quarter, the por olio held 32 companies that reported earnings. 29 exceeded Wall Street es mates, while only three missed expecta ons. The por olio s earnings beat rate of 90.63% was well ahead of the 80.88% beat rate for all companies in the S&P 500. Align Technology Inc Macy's Inc Facebook Inc Intui ve Surgical Inc Baxter Interna onal Inc Sysco Corp Motorola Solu ons Inc Pioneer Natural Resources Co Michael Kors Holdings Ltd General Motors Co * Sold During the Quarter ^ Bought During the Quarter Top 10 Performers Symbol ALGN M FB ISRG BAX SYY MSI PXD KORS GM Return Contribu on Concho Resources Inc * Applied Materials Inc Freeport McMoRan Inc * United Rentals Inc Morgan Stanley Tapestry Inc Wynn Resorts Ltd Intel Corp^ State Street Corpora on FedEx Corp Bo om 10 Performers Symbol CXO AMAT FCX URI MS TPR WYNN INTC STT FDX Return Contribu on
2 Earnings Surprise Beat Comparison Holdings Repor ng Earnings in Q2 Earnings Beats Earnings Misses Earnings Met Earnings Beat % S&P % % Year-to-Date Performance Review For the 6 months ended June 30, 2018, the por olio has advanced 3.20% versus 2.65% for the S&P 500. Health Care (up 32.64% versus. 1.75% for the S&P 500), Consumer Staples (up 10.7% versus 8.92% for the S&P 500) and Informa on Technology (up 4.64% versus 10.83% for the S&P 500) sectors have contributed the most to performance. Rela ve to the S&P 500, the Health Care sector led by Align Technologies (up 53.99%) and Intui ve Surgical (up 31.11%), Consumer Staples sector led by Sysco (up 13.79%) and Estee Lauder (up 12.73%) and Financials sector led by Moody s Corpora on (up 16.15%) have contributed the most to the por olio s outperformance. The Informa on Technology sector was the largest detractor to overall returns through the first half of the year due both in part to rela ve underweight posi oning to the sector and underperformance of stocks within the sector. Market Outlook Time Period: 4/1/2018 to 6/30/2018 Consumer Discre onary Consumer Staples Energy Sector Return Rela ve to S&P Focusing on daily headline noise, investors might miss the fact that the U.S. economy con nues to show signs of strength with unemployment at historical lows, strong GDP growth and record high business and consumer confidence. Effects on corporate earnings and consumer spending from the tax reform bill are just now star ng to be realized. Short term, we expect investors to con nue to focus on trade/tariff concerns and perhaps a slowing synchronized global economic expansion. As we head toward fall, focus will likely turn toward midterm elec ons. Typically, midterm elec on years display more vola lity and we expect that to con nue into November. Much like we experienced during the 2016 and other elec ons, the outcome isn t quite as important; it s the uncertainty of the outcome that can hold the markets back. It remains to be seen whether the stock market can perform as well as the economy is expected to during the second half of the year. Economic growth and equity performance aren t highly correlated in the short term. The tax reform bill provided a huge boost to earnings es mates during the first half of the year. Whether that growth is sustainable heading into 2019 will weigh heavily on the equity markets. Financials Health Care Industrials Informa on Technology Materials 0.6 Real Estate 0.1 Analyst Earnings Es mates Comparison Telecommunica on Services 0.1 U li es Past performance is not indica ve of future results. Holdings presented here represent a par al list of holdings in the Large Cap Equity model por olio during the me period indicated. Trades executed in actual accounts may differ from the model depending upon the size of the account, investment objec ves and restric ons, capital contribu ons and withdrawals, the amount of transac on and related costs, the incep on date of the account and other factors. It should not be assumed that investments in the securi es iden fied were or will be profitable or that recommenda ons made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securi es presented here. A complete list of securi es purchased and sold in the last 12 months in the Large Cap Equity por olio is available upon request. Top & Bo om performances are gross returns, with contribu on calculated on a asset weighted basis. Please send informa on requests to investorrela ons@wakefieldinc.com. This report is provided as general informa on only and should not be taken as investment advice. This report shall not be construed as a recommenda on to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to par cipate in any par cular trading or investment strategy. Some informa on in this report was generated based on informa on from a third party and is believed to be reliable. Wakefield makes no representa on as to the accuracy or completeness of the third party informa on provided in this report. Please refer to the a ached performance presenta on for net of fee composite returns, disclosures and further informa on about Wakefield Asset Management and our Large Cap Equity strategy. Forms ADV part 1 and 2 are available upon request. Attribution data was calculated using the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy benchmark for the S&P 500 Index. Data source: Morningstar Direct, Bloomberg.
3 While the overall market is efficient, pockets of inefficiency do exist. Wakefield Asset Management offers a unique investment strategy which we believe stands apart from the mainstream investment community. Focusing on proprietary investment techniques that not only iden fy market inefficiencies, but capture those inefficiencies over me. Wakefield uses a highly disciplined and technologically advanced process for research, security selec on, implementa on, and monitoring. The resul ng por olios exhibit a unique combina on of characteris cs with posi ve near term expecta ons that, in our view, will be rewarded by the market in the period ahead regardless of market direc on. In our management and research, our goals are Focus, Crea vity, Intellectual Honesty, and Con nuous Improvement. Returns (Gross of Fee) 22.0% % 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% % Return 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q YTD Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Since Incep on The informa on on this page is supplemental to the GIPS compliant disclosure presenta on on page 4 which also shows net performance returns. Page 1
4 Performance Rela ve to Peer Group Peer Group (5 95%): Separate Accounts/CITs U.S. Large Blend Calcula on Benchmark: Top Quar le 2nd Quar le 3rd Quar le Bo om Quar le 22.0% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% Return 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years Top Holdings GICS Sector Weigh ngs Michael Kors Holdings Ltd Baxter Interna onal Inc Intui ve Surgical Inc Motorola Solu ons Inc Facebook Inc A Moody's Corpora on CenterPoint Energy Inc ONEOK Inc Steel Dynamics Inc Symbol Weight % KORS 3.4 BAX 3.3 ISRG 3.3 MSI 3.3 FB 3.2 MCO 3.2 CNP 3.1 OKE 3.0 STLD 3.0 Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discre onary Consumer Staples Healthcare Financials Informa on Technology Telecom Services U li es Real Estate 2.6% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 6.3% 5.7% 8.4% 9.5% 8.9% 7.0% 9.6% 11.7% 12.9% 14.1% 14.5% 13.8% 17.4% 17.7% 26.0% Macy's Inc M 3.0 Large Cap Equity Holdings as of June 30, Holdings are subject to change at any me. Posi ons, and posi on size, may vary from account to account. A full lis ng of investment decisions made in the past year is available upon request. It should not be assumed that recommenda ons made in the future will be profitable or will equal the preformance of the securi es presented here. This holdings list should not be considered a recommenda on to buy or sell any security. The informa on on this page is supplemental to the GIPS compliant disclosure presenta on on page 4 Page 2
5 Wakefield Large Cap Por olio Characteris cs # of Stock Holdings Wakefield LCE S&P 500 TR Average Market Cap (mil) 61,014 47,813 Median Market Cap (mil) 28,705 20,494 P/E Ra o (TTM) P/B Ra o (TTM) % Giant 17.8 Large 46.0 Mid 36.2 Small 0.0 % Giant 56.9 Large 34.5 Mid 8.6 Small 0.0 Dividend Yield Ac ve Share Informa on Sta s cs - 5 Year Alpha Beta Sharpe Ra o R Squared Capture Ra o - 5 Year Calcula on Benchmark: 130.0% 120.0% 110.0% 100.0% Informa on Ra o Tracking Error Standard Devia on Up Capture Ra o 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 110.0% 120.0% 130.0% Ba ng Average Down Capture Ra o Investment Growth Time Period: 5/1/1997 to 6/30/2018 1, , The informa on on this page is supplemental to the GIPS compliant disclosure presenta on on page 4 which also shows net performance returns. Returns Above Benchmark Excess Return Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years Since Incep on Page 3
6 Wakefield Asset Management claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Wakefield Asset Management has been independently verified for the periods July 1, 2003 through December 31, Verifica on assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construc on requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. The composite has been examined for the periods July 1, 2003 through December 31, The verifica on and performance examina on reports are available upon request. Page 4
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