The New Diversification Adding Alternative Investments

Transcription

1 Interactive Brokers in conjunction with BlackRock presents: The New Diversification Adding Alternative Investments Mark Peterson Director BlackRock Exchange and Industry Sponsored Webinars are presented by unaffiliated third parties. Interactive Brokers LLC is not responsible for the content of these presentations. You should review the contents of each presentation and make your own judgment as to whether the content is appropriate for you. Interactive Brokers LLC does not provide recommendations or advice. This presentation is not an advertisement or solicitation for new customers. It is intended only as an educational presentation. Member SIPC Webinar 12:00 pm EST

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5 MARK PETERSON Director Mark Peterson, Director of Investment Strategy and Education for BlackRock where his responsibilities include relating BlackRock s Investment Strategy and investment views to key institutional and financial advisor clients and offering perspective on all asset classes - including equities, fixed income, alternatives and multi-sector approaches to investing. A 20-year industry veteran with extensive expertise and experience educating financial professionals and investors on market and investment topics. Prior to joining BlackRock, Mark was a Director and Head of Product Strategy and Economics at Deutsche Bank, where he developed investment and product strategies for all investment products. Mark also worked as a product specialist across all asset classes where his responsibilities' included developing new mutual fund launches and delivering market and investment presentations across the US. Additionally, Mark has spent time on floor of the Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Mark received his B.S. degree from Arizona State University. 5

6 The New Diversification Adding Alternative Investments Investing in alternative investments presents the opportunity for significant losses, including the loss of your total investment. Such strategies have the potential for heightened volatility and in general, are not suitable for all investors.

7 Agenda 1. Failure of Traditional Diversification 2. Redefining Diversification 3. The Way Forward Practical Application 7

8 Failure of Traditional Diversification

9 Measuring of Risk Correlation Measure of strength of the linear return relationship between two assets and their movement Can be any value between +1 and -1 Fund 1 Fund 2 Fund 3 Fund 4 Fund 5 Fund 6 Fund 7 Fund Fund Fund Fund Fund Fund Fund High correlations can signal potential risk 9

10 Traditional Diversification Seeks to build a portfolio consisting of lower correlated equity and fixed income asset classes to reduce volatility Reduce Volatility By Owning Two Asset Classes With Low Correlation Individual Asset Classes With Negative Correlation Combined Asset Classes Low correlations can provide portfolio diversification and reduce risk The information shown is for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to represent the performance of any particular investment or asset class. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal amount invested. 10

11 Traditional Diversification Underperformed When the Return Environment Changed 1. Lower Returns Average Annual Returns Last 30+ Years US Stocks Average Annual Returns by Decade 20% 17.9% US Bonds Average Annual Returns by Decade 20% 15% 15% 10% 88-year average 10.08% 10% 10.0% 88-year average 5.29% 5.6% 5% 3.6% 5% 0% % Source: Morningstar. As of 12/31/13. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. US Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. The value of equity investments are more volatile than other securities. Equity index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and unlike mutual funds, do not reflect fees or expenses. US Bonds are represented by the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Fixed Income investment options are subject to interest rate risk, and their value will decline as interest rates rise. 11

12 Traditional Diversification Methods Less Effective Over the Last 30+ Years 2. Increased Correlations Over Time Correlation of International and US Stocks Less diversification opportunities Increased Correlations During Time of Crisis US Fixed Income and US Stocks Source: Morningstar. As of 12/31/13. Past correlations and performance are no guarantee of future results. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. US Stocks are represented by S&P 500 Index. US Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays US Aggregate Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. 12

13 Traditional Equity Cluster During Bull and Bear Markets Risk and Return of Equity Asset Classes Return 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Bull Market (9/02 10/07) Large Cap Int l Mid Cap Small Cap Em. Mkts Large Cap Int l Bear Market (8/00 9/02) Int l Mid Cap Small Cap Mid Cap Large Cap Em. Mkts Large Cap Small Cap Bull Market (8/98 8/00) Int l Em. Mkts Mid Cap Small Cap Em. Mkts Bear Market (10/07 2/09) -60% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Risk (Standard Deviation) Clustered returns indicate higher correlations Sources: BlackRock; Informa Investment Solutions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index returns are shown for illustrative purposes only. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Large Cap Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Mid Cap Stocks are represented the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. Small Cap Stocks are represented by the S&P 600 Small Cap Index. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Emerging Markets Stocks are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 13

14 Investors Have Underperformed Perfect storm of variables lead to high volatility and underperformance Correlations close to 1. Insufficient diversification. Emotional investing. Investors Have Underperformed 20-Year Annualized Returns by Asset Class 10% 8% 6% 9.2% 8.4% 6.6% 5.7% 5.7% 4% 2% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0% Stocks Oil Gold Bonds Int l Stocks Homes Avg. Investor Inflation Sources: BlackRock; Bloomberg; Informa Investment Solutions; Dalbar. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index, an unmanaged index that consists of the common stocks of 500 large-capitalization companies, within various industrial sectors, most of which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Oil is represented by the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Future Index. Contract size is 1,000 barrels with a contract price quoted in US Dollars and Cents per barrel. Delivery dates take place every month of the year. Gold is represented by the change in the spot price of gold in USD per ounce. Bonds are represented by the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, an unmanaged market-weighted index that consists of investment-grade corporate bonds (rated BBB or better), mortgages and US Treasury and government agency issues with at least 1 year to maturity. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad-based measure of international stock performance. Homes are represented by the Existing One Family Home Sales Median Price Index. Inflation is represented by the Consumer Price Index. Average Investor is represented by Dalbar s average asset allocation investor return, which utilizes the net of aggregate mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month as a measure of investor behavior. Returns are annualized (and total return where applicable) and represent the 20-year period ending 12/31/13 to match Dalbar s most recent analysis. 14

15 Redefining Diversification

16 Traditional Diversification Contains Mostly Equity Risk Correlation of Traditional 60/40 Portfolio to Risk Sources Over the Last 15 Years ( ) Correlation Stock Returns Change in Interest Rates Change in Inflation Sources: BlackRock; Bloomberg; Informa Investment Solutions. Traditional 60/40 portfolio composed of 60% S&P 500 Index and 40% Barclays Capital US Aggregate Bond Index, rebalanced annually. Stock returns are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Change in interest rates represented by the monthly change in the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Change in inflation is represented by the Consumer Product Index. Past performance and correlations do not guarantee or indicate future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. 16

17 Enhanced Diversification Considers Risk Beyond Equities 15-Year Correlation with the Equity Market Top Five and Bottom Five in All Morningstar Categories Large Blend 0.99 Target Date Top Five Moderate Allocation 0.97 Target Date Target Date Bottom Five Intermediate Gov Short Gov Market Neutral Long Government Other Notables Municipal Bonds Inflation Protected Currency Commodities Equity Precious Metals Bear Market Source: Morningstar, as of 12/31/13. Past correlations are no guarantee of future correlations. Equities are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Commodities are represented by the S&P GSCI Index. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. Additional asset classes are represented by Morningstar Category averages. Correlations over other time periods might not be as favorable. 17

18 Enhanced Diversification Considers Inflation Risk 15-Year Correlation with Inflation Top 10 in All Morningstar Categories Bank Loan 0.34 Commodities 0.31 Ultrashort Bond 0.27 High Yield Municipal 0.19 Top Ten Natural Resources Energy Equity High Yield Bond Latin America Equity Nontraditional Bond Deflation Categories Long Gov t Long Bond Interm. Gov t Short Gov t Interm. Bond Inflation-Protected Bond % 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: Morningstar as of 12/31/13. Past correlations are no guarantee of future correlations. Commodities are represented by the S&P GSCI Index. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. Additional asset classes are represented by Morningstar Category averages. Inflation is represented by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI All Urban. Correlation over other time periods might not be as favorable. 18

19 Enhanced Diversification Moves Beyond Long-Only Equity and Fixed Income Traditional Diversification Relies On Traditional Equity Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Value Growth International Emerging Markets Traditional Fixed Income Treasuries Corporates High Yield MBS/ABS Floating Rate Global International Alternative Equity Strategies Long/Short 130/30 Market Neutral Short Bias Private Equity Arbitrage Enhanced Diversification Can Include Alternative Fixed Inc. Strategies Duration Management Yield Management Long/Short Opportunistic/Unconstrained Distressed Debt Credit Arbitrage Alternative Assets Gold Commodities Currency Infrastructure Real Assets Real Estate Enhanced diversification can carry additional risk to a portfolio due to the sophisticated strategies employed. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. For additional information about the risks associated with alternative asset classes, please see slide

20 Enhanced Diversification Has Less Clustering Risk and Return of Equity Asset Classes Return 60% 40% 20% 0% Event Driven Currency -20% Market Neutral FI Arbitrage Long / Short Large Cap Int l Event Driven Small Cap Mid Cap Managed Futures Em. Mkts Real Estate Long / Short FI Arbitrage Commodities Mid Cap Market Neutral -40% Large Cap Small Cap Commodities Int l Em. Mkts -60% Real Estate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Risk (Standard Deviation) Less clustering in bull and bear markets Bear Market (10/07 2/09) Bull Market (9/02 10/07) Sources: BlackRock; Informa Investment Solutions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Large Cap Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Index. Mid Cap Stocks are represented the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. Small Cap Stocks are represented by the S&P 600 Small Cap Index. International Stocks are represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Emerging Markets Stocks are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Long / Short is represented by the Dow Jones / Credit Suisse Long Short Equity Index. Market Neutral is represented by the Dow Jones / Credit Suisse Equity Market Neutral Index. Event Driven is represented by the Dow Jones / Credit Suisse Event Driven Index. Fixed Income Arbitrage is represented by the Dow Jones / Credit Suisse Fixed Income Arbitrage Index. Managed Futures is represented by the Barclay CTA Index. Real Estate is represented by the NAREIT All Equity Index. Currency is represented by the Barclay Currency Traders Index. Commodities is represented by the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. 20

21 Enhanced Diversification Seeks to Capitalize on Lower Correlations Correlation ( ) Equity Fixed Income Alt. Strategies Alt. Assets Large Cap 1.00 Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Int l Mid Cap Small Cap Int l Emer. Mkts Equity Fixed Income Alternative Strategies Alternative Assets Corp Emerging Mkts Corp. High Yield Treas. High Yield Treas Long / Short Long / Short Mkt Neutral Mkt Neutral Event Driven FI Arbitrage Event Driven FI Arbitrage Mgd Futures Real Estate Currency Commodities Mgd Futures Real Estate Currency Commodities High ( ) Moderate High ( ) Moderate ( ) Low ( ) Negative (<0.0) Low Diversification High Diversification Sources: BlackRock; Informa Investment Solutions. Past correlations are no guarantee of future correlations. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Large Cap is represented by the S&P 500 Index. Mid Cap is represented the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. Small Cap is represented by the S&P 600 Small Cap Index. International is represented by the MSCI EAFE Index. Emerging Markets are represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Corporate Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays Credit Index. High Yield Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays US High Yield Index. Treasuries are represented by the Barclays US Treasury Index. Long/Short is represented by the Dow Jones/Credit Suisse Long Short Equity Index. Market Neutral is represented by the Dow Jones/Credit Suisse Equity Market Neutral Index. Event Driven is represented by the Dow Jones/Credit Suisse Event Driven Index. Fixed Income Arbitrage is represented by the Dow Jones/Credit Suisse Fixed Income Arbitrage Index. Managed Futures is represented by the Barclay CTA Index. Real Estate is represented by the NAREIT All Equity Index. Currency is represented by the Barclay Currency Traders Index. Commodities is represented by the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. 21

22 Small Endowments Employ Enhanced Diversification Endowment Average Asset Class Allocation by Endowment Size 100% 12 80% % 16 40% 20% % Over $1bn $101 $500mn Under $25mn Equity Fixed Income Alternative Strategies / Assets Source: 2013 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowment Results. Reflects the period ending June 30, 2013, the latest available data for the annual study. Overall, the study included 835 Institutions (533 Private college and university endowments, 70 Public educational endowments, 183 Institution-related foundations (IRF) and 49 Combined public endowments/ foundations) holding $448.6 billion in assets. Data was segmented referencing: 82 institutions over $1 billion, 70 institutions between $501 million to $1 billion, 261 institutions between $101 to $500 million, 166 institutions between $51 to $100 million, 125 institutions between $25 to $50 million and 131 institutions under $25 million. The selected examples shown above were chosen based on asset size to represent large, medium and small endowments. Allocation percentages exclude Cash. 22

23 The Way Forward

24 Defining Alternative Assets and Alternative Strategies No Industry-Standard Definition Morningstar, Lipper and industry reports all define these alternative strategies and alternative asset classes differently. Alternatives Are Simply Alternative to Traditional Debt and Equity Alternative Asset Classes Commodities Currency Real Estate Infrastructure Real Assets Renewable Energy Alternative Strategies Equity (long / short or private) Bonds (arbitrage or distressed) 24

25 Need to Evolve Asset Allocation Alternative Assets Commodities Currency Alternative Equity Real Estate Infrastructure Long / Short Market Neutral Private Equity Event Driven Short Bias Relative Value (Equity) (Alternative Strategies) Alternative Assets (Alternative Strategies) Alternative Fixed Income Long / Short Absolute Return Relative Value (Fixed Income) Traditional Equity Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Value Growth International Emerging Markets Equity (Traditional Strategies) Fixed Income (Traditional Strategies) Traditional Fixed Income Treasuries Corporates High Yield MBS / ABS Global / International The chart above is for illustrative purposes only and does not seek to represent the asset allocation for all investors. 25

26 The Impact to Return and Risk Over Time Alternative Strategies and Assets Can Expand the Efficient Frontier ( ) Sources: BlackRock; Informa Investment Solutions. Equity is represented by the S&P 500 Index. Fixed Income is represented by the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Enhanced portfolios include a 15% allocation to alternative assets, a 5% allocation to alternative equity strategies within the equity allocation and a 5% allocation to alternative fixed income strategies within the fixed income allocation. To fund these additional allocations, the equity allocation of each traditional portfolio is reduced by 15% and the fixed income allocation is reduced by 10%. The 15% allocation to alternative assets is represented by a 5% allocation to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, a 5% allocation to the Barclay Currency Traders Index and a 5% allocation to the NAREIT Equity Index. The 5% allocation to alternative equity strategies is represented by the Dow Jones/Credit Suisse Long Short Equity Index. The 5% allocation to alternative fixed income strategies is represented by the Dow Jones/ Credit Suisse Fixed Income Arbitrage Index.. 26

27 Manager Skill is Vital When Selecting an Alternative Strategy Alternatives are more driven by manager skill (alpha) vs. traditional asset classes / categories where market (beta) typically drives overall returns Over the last 5 years, the average performance difference between the top decile / bottom decile performers in the long/short category was 19.23% vs % for a traditional category (large blend) A huge gap between good and bad performance Performance spread between top- and bottom-decile, Morningstar Long/Short Equity Funds Top-decile 30.76% 16.21% 4.54% 13.50% 30.14% 5-Year Average Spread Performance spread 26.21% 15.27% 12.06% 14.96% 27.66% 19.23% Bottom-decile 4.55% 0.94% -7.52% -1.46% 2.48% Source: Morningstar, as of 12/31/13. Performance is historical and does not guarantee future results. 27

28 Summary Failure of Traditional Diversification Return environment completely changed Correlations went up when you needed them most Redefining Diversification Need to move beyond traditional risk/return optimization and diversify by risk source Enhanced diversification moves beyond long-only equity and fixed income The Way Forward Practical Application Enhanced diversification includes alternative assets and alternative strategies for equity and fixed income Enhanced diversification potentially reduces risk, increases diversification and long-term total return Manager and investment vehicle is more critical in the alternative strategy space 28

29 Potential Alternative Investment Risks Commodities: The commodities markets have experienced periods of extreme volatility. Concentrating investments in natural resources industries can be affected significantly by events relating to those industries, such as variations in the commodities markets, weather, disease, embargoes, international, political and economic developments, the success of exploration projects, tax and other government regulations and other factors. Derivatives: Investing in derivatives entails specific risks relating to liquidity, leverage and credit that may reduce returns and/or increase volatility. Futures trading can quickly lead to large losses as well as gains. Such trading losses can sharply reduce the value of your investment. Mortgages: The principal on mortgage- or asset-backed securities normally may be prepaid at any time, which will reduce the yield and market value of those securities. Short Selling: Short selling entails special risks. If your investments make short sales in securities that increase in value, your investments will lose value. Any loss on short positions may or may not be offset by investing short-sale proceeds in other investment Liquidity: Investments in alternatives assets or strategies may be or may become illiquid, their marketability may be restricted and the realization of investments from them may take considerable time and/or be costly, in particular because your investments may have restrictions that allow redemptions only at specific infrequent dates with considerable notice periods and apply lock-ups and/or redemption fees. Leverage: Leverage may increase the risk of investment loss and performance of an investment which employs leverage may be volatile The use of financial instruments or borrowed funds often amplifies performance. In an upward- or downward-trending market, a leveraged investment that is on the correct side of the trend will see magnified gains, while one on the wrong side of the trend will see magnified losses. Currency: Investments in currency may be adversely affected by changes to exchange rates. Currency depreciation can negatively affect the value of one's assets, investments, and their related interest and dividend payment streams, especially those securities denominated in foreign currency. Real Estate: The performance of real estate investments is linked to the performance of the real estate markets. Property values may fall due to increasing vacancies or declining rents resulting from economic, legal, or cultural developments. Prices also may drop because of the failure of borrowers to pay their loans or poor management. 29

30 Asset Class and Strategy Index Definitions Long-Short - Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index: The Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index SM is a subset of the Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Index SM that measures the aggregate performance of long/short equity funds. Long/short equity funds typically invest in both long and short sides of equity markets, generally focusing on diversifying or hedging across particular sectors, regions or market capitalizations. Managers typically have the flexibility to shift from value to growth; small to medium to large capitalization stocks; and net long to net short. Managers can also trade equity futures and options as well as equity related securities and debt or build portfolios that are more concentrated than traditional long-only equity funds. Mkt Neutral - Dow Jones Credit Suisse Equity Market Neutral Index: The Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral IndexSM is a subset of the Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Index SM that measures the aggregate performance of equity market neutral funds. Equity market neutral funds typically take both long and short positions in stocks while seeking to reduce exposure to the systematic risk of the market (i.e., a beta of zero is desired). Equity Market Neutral funds typically seek to exploit investment opportunities unique to a specific group of stocks, while maintaining a neutral exposure to broad groups of stocks defined for example by sector, industry, market capitalization, country, or region. The index has a number of subsectors including statistical arbitrage, quantitative long/short, fundamental long/short and index arbitrage. Managers often apply leverage to enhance returns. Event Driven - Dow Jones Credit Suisse Event Driven Index: The Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Event Driven Index SM is a subset of the Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Index SM that measures the aggregate performance of event driven funds. Event driven funds typically invest in various asset classes and seek to profit from potential mispricing of securities related to a specific corporate or market event. Such events can include: mergers, bankruptcies, financial or operational stress, restructurings, asset sales, recapitalizations, spin-offs, litigation, regulatory and legislative changes as well as other types of corporate events. Event driven funds can invest in equities, fixed income instruments (investment grade, high yield, bank debt, convertible debt and distressed), options and various other derivatives. Many managers may use a combination of strategies and adjust exposures based on the opportunity sets in each subsector. FI Arb. - Dow Jones Credit Suisse Fixed Income Arbitrage Index: The Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Fixed Income Arbitrage Index SM is a subset of the Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Index SM that measures the aggregate performance of fixed income arbitrage funds. Fixed income arbitrage funds typically attempt to generate profits by exploiting inefficiencies and price anomalies between related fixed income securities. Fixed income arbitrage funds seek to limit volatility by hedging out exposure to the market and interest rate risk. Strategies may include leveraging long and short positions in similar fixed income securities that are related either mathematically or economically. The sector includes credit yield curve relative value trading involving interest rate swaps, government securities and futures; volatility trading involving options; and mortgagebacked securities arbitrage (the mortgage-backed market is primarily U.S.-based and over-the-counter). 30

31 Asset class and strategy index definitions Mgd Futures - Dow Jones Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index: The Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Managed Futures Index SM is a subset of the Dow Jones Credit Suisse AllHedge Index SM that measures the aggregate performance of managed futures funds. Managed futures funds (often referred to as CTAs or Commodity Trading Advisors) typically focus on investing in listed bond, equity, commodity futures and currency markets, globally. Managed futures fund managers tend to employ systematic trading programs that largely rely upon historical price data and market trends. A significant amount of leverage is often employed since the strategy involves the use of futures contracts. CTAs tend not to have a particular bias towards being net long or net short any particular market. Real Estate - NAREIT All Equity Index: NAREIT stands for the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts, a trade organization focused on REITs. For investors, NAREIT publishes information and performance data related to REITs. This NAREIT data can also be useful to other real estate investors as a proxy for the current attractiveness of specific real estate sectors. NARIET does show that equity REIT performance has historically been favorable relative to some other asset equity investments, such as the S&P 500. For REIT managers, NARIET publishes guidelines on performance reporting. For accountants, NAREIT provides commentary on REIT-specific accounting issues. Currency - Barclay Currency Traders Index: An equal weighted composite of managed programs that trade currency futures and/or cash forwards in the interbank market. In 2004, there are 72 currency programs included in the index. Commodities - S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index: The S&P GSCI TM is also designed to be a tradable index, readily accessible to market participants and cost efficient to implement. The index is calculated primarily on a world production-weighted basis and is comprised of the principal physical commodities that are the subject of active, liquid futures markets. As a result, the index is widely recognized as a leading measure of general price movements and inflation in the world economy. In order to reflect the performance of a total return investment in commodities, Standard & Poor s calculates four separate but related indices based on the S&P GSCI TM and a number of sub-indices representing components of the S&P GSCI TM. The composition of the S&P GSCI TM is reviewed on a monthly basis. 31

32 Important Notes This material is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information contained herein is based on current tax laws, which may change in the future. BlackRock cannot be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss resulting from applying any of the information provided in this publication or from any other source mentioned. The information provided in these materials does not constitute any legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with a qualified professional for this type of advice. The opinions expressed are as of March 2014 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Asset allocation strategies do not guarantee profit or protect against loss. BlackRock is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3/14 USR

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