Management Presentation

Transcription

1 August 2012 Management Presentation NYSE: VNR

2 Forward-Looking Statements Statements made by representatives of Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC during the course of this presentation that are not historical facts are forward looking statements, including (but not limited to) statements about the acquisition (including its benefits, results and effects), the related financing plans, whether and when the acquisition will be consummated, the operating results of Encore Energy Partners LP following the acquisition and statements with respect to future distributions. These statements are based on certain assumptions and expectations made by the Company which reflect management s experience, estimates and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or anticipated in the forward looking statements. These include risks relating to the satisfaction of the conditions to closing of the acquisition, uncertainties as to timing, financial performance and results, our indebtedness under our revolving credit facility, availability of sufficient cash to pay our distributions and execute our business plan, prices and demand for oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids, our ability to replace reserves and efficiently develop our reserves, our ability to make acquisitions on economically acceptable terms and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or implied in the forward looking statements. See Risk Factors in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and Item 1A. of Part II Risk Factors in our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and any other public filings and press releases. Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. This presentation has been prepared as of August 2,

3 Overview of Vanguard Natural Resources Upstream oil & gas LLC, headquartered in Houston, Texas Initial Public Offering VNR October 2007 (Total Enterprise Value of ~$240mm) Fifteen strategic acquisitions totaling ~$2.1bn expanded geographic profile and commodity diversity (including merger with Encore Energy Partners LP and Arkoma Basin acquisition) Quarterly distribution of $0.60 per unit ($2.40 annualized) yields approximately 8.9% at current price; Increased distributions ~41% since IPO Instituted a monthly distribution beginning with the July 2012 distribution Diverse portfolio of mature, long life gas and oil properties, combined with a multi-year hedging program provide stable cash flow and support distribution growth No General Partner or incentive distribution rights (IDRs) Reduces cost of capital ~136 MMBoe total proved reserves Pre-Arkoma Q Production: ~12.3 MBoe/d 2012E Production: 18.8 Mboe/d 2013E Production: 23.2 Mboe/d ~72% proved developed ~15 year Proved R/P ~46% liquids / 54% gas ($ in millions) Company Profile VNR UNITS OUTSTANDING (1) 52.0 EQUITY MARKET CAP (1) $1,404 TOTAL DEBT $1,084 ENTERPRISE VALUE $2,488 3 * Proved reserves as of 6/30/12 based on internal reserve report. (1) Market data as of August 2, 2012 includes 420,000 Class B units. Balance sheet data as of June 30, 2012.

4 Geographically Diversified Reserve Base Core Areas Overview Big Horn Basin Proved Reserves: 24.0 MMBoe 85% oil and 96% Proved Developed 3.9 MBoe/d net production 93% operated Williston Basin Proved Reserves: 5.8 MMBoe 93% oil and 95% Proved Developed 0.9 MBoe/d net production 70% operated MMBoe proved reserves 54% gas and 72% proved developed Proved R/P of ~15 years Operate ~60% of cash flow BIG HORN BASIN WILLISTON BASIN Proved Reserves by Area 136 MMBoe Permian Basin Proved Reserves: 28.5 MMBoe 51% oil and 85% Proved Developed 5.1 MBoe/d net production 85% operated PERMIAN BASIN ARKOMA BASIN MISSISSIPPI VNR Major Producing Fields Arkoma 50% Permian 21% Big Horn 18% South Texas Proved Reserves: 7.6 MMBoe 59% gas and 63% Proved Developed 1.1 MBoe/d net production 0% operated SOUTH TEXAS Arkoma Basin Proved Reserves: 67.6 MMBoe 82% gas and 57% Proved Developed 13.0 MBoe/d net production (1) 43% operated Mississippi Parker Creek Proved Reserves: 2.7 MMBoe 95% oil and 76% Proved Developed 0.6 MBoe/d net production 90% operated Mississippi 2% S. Texas 5% Williston 4% 4 Note: Proved reserves as of 6/30/12 based on internal reserve report. Production represents 2011 average daily net production. Pro forma for exchange of Appalachian assets and recent Arkoma Basin acquisition. Percent operated statistics are based on a cash flow basis. (1) Includes ~12.7 Mboe/d of current production from the Woodford/Fayetteville Shale acquisition.

5 How We Spend Capital Disciplined approach to capital spending focus on maintaining cash flow from mature, long lived fields By contrast, resource players invest in growth to support equity valuation The nature of our capital program is inherently less risky due to the lengthy production histories in the fields we operate We grow production primarily through accretive acquisitions of low-risk producing properties, rather than through the drillbit Our capital spending as a percent of EBITDA is best-in-class 2012E capital budget of $46.5 million approximately 20% of 2012E Adjusted EBITDA VNR E&P MLPs (1) Resource Players 15% 49% 172% Capital Spending vs. Cash Flow Resource Players E&P MLPs $1,400 1,200 1,000 $1, Adjusted EBITDA 2011 Capex (2) $1,148 ($mm) EBITDA / Capex $709 $654 $545 $620 $639 $550 $541 $396 $375 $235 $225 $225 $202 $212 $34 $76 $72 $84 (3) BRY SFY SD LPI OAS VNR BBEP LGCY EVEP LINE 1.0x 0.7x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 6.6x 3.0x 2.8x 2.5x 1.8x 5 Source: Company filings Note: VNR adjusted EBITDA includes the non-controlling interest of ENP (1) Excludes VNR (2) Represents development and exploration expenses, excluding acquisitions (3) Based on Wall Street consensus estimates as of March 7, 2012

6 Our Acquisition Strategy The U.S. has a large inventory of mature oil and natural gas basins which provide significant opportunity for future growth and consolidation Current E&P opportunity set is comprised of an estimated $1.5 trillion of mature properties, which is substantially more than the U.S. midstream sector Approximately $40 billion of E&P assets transacted each year since 2007 Vanguard s Acquisition Strategy is to: Acquire mature oil and gas properties with the following characteristics: Stable, long life production with a shallow decline High percentage of proved developed producing reserves Long reserve life Step-out development opportunities for additional growth Efficiently manage the oil and gas assets with focus on maintaining cash flow levels Reduce commodity price and interest rate risk through hedging Return cash flow through distribution payments to unitholders 6

7 Our Successful Acquisition Track Record We acquire developed, proved properties in established oil and gas basins We review between and evaluate approximately 50 acquisition candidates each year Acquisition Effective Date Region Adj. Purchase Price ($ mm) Proved Reserves/ PDP (1) Key Features Apache Jan 2008 Permian $ MMBoe / 90% PDP 83% oil Dos Hermanos Jul 2008 South Texas $ Bcfe / 65% PDP 98% natural gas SUN TSH Jul 2009 South Texas $ Bcfe / 74% PDP 55% natural gas Ward County Oct 2009 Permian $ MMBoe / 65% PDP 83% oil Parker Creek May 2010 Mississippi, TX & NM $ MMBoe / 61% PDP 96% oil Encore Acquisition *Encore Merger Dec 2010 *Dec 2011 Permian, Williston, Arkoma & Big Horn Basins $380.0 *$814.0 additional 43.4 MMBoe / 91% PDP 67% oil & NGLs Miscellaneous Q Permian $ MMBoe / 100% PDP 100% oil Permian May 2011 Permian $ MMBoe /100% PDP 70% oil & NGLs Permian May 2011 Permian $ MMBoe / 51% PDP 87% oil & NGLs Wyoming June 2011 Big Horn $ Bcfe / 90% PDP 65% natural gas TX, LA Aug 2011 Gulf Coast $ MMBoe / 100% PDP 83% oil & NGLs Montana, N. Dakota Sept 2011 Williston $ MMBoe / 100% PDP 97% oil Mississippi Dec 2011 Mississippi $ MMBoe / 85% PDP 100% oil Wyoming Mar 2012 Big Horn $ MMBoe / 91% PDP 100% oil Oklahoma April 2012 Arkoma Basin $ Bcfe / 57% PDP 82% natural gas 7 * Purchase price adjusted downward for distributions received on ENP units and includes debt as of 11/30/11. (1) Proved reserves and proved developed producing (PDP) numbers are calculated as of the acquisition closing date based on internal estimates.

8 Largest acquisition to date at $1.2 billion Increased exposure to crude oil for VNR unitholders What Encore Did For Us Significantly increased size and scale, overall operating reach and cash flow stability Improved ability to compete for acquisitions going forward Geographic diversification through exposure to the Big Horn Basin, Williston Basin and Arkoma / Mid-Continent Enhanced existing footprint in the Permian Basin Added complementary, high-quality asset base characterized by: Predictable production profiles Low decline rates Long reserve life Modest capital requirements Immediate accretion to VNR s distributable cash flow Expanded human resource capital Added critical in house functions necessary for operating assets Our experience integrating Encore will be beneficial in future acquisitions 8

9 Woodford Shale Arkoma Basin Acquisition Fayetteville Shale Operated Acreage Non-operated Acreage Assets located in the Woodford Shale and Fayetteville Shale plays Total proved reserves of ~402 Bcfe (57% PDP) Current net production of ~76 MMcfe/d (includes ~1,000 Bbl/d of NGLs) Reserve to production ratio of 15 years ~71,300 net acres (89% held by production) ~180 drilling locations with an average 22.5% working interest (~$22 million in capital expenditures per year) Restructured acquired hedges to cover ~100% of expected proved production for the next five years at $5.04/MMBtu beginning in August 2012 Immediately accretive to cash flow (1) Before Vanguard hedge restructure as described on slide 14. 9

10 Total Reserves of 136 MMBoe (817 Bcfe) PDP reserves of 94 MMBoe (569 Bcfe) is 69% of total reserves Pro Forma Reserve Summary Oil NGL Gas Total (MMBl) (MMBl) (Bcf) (MMBoe) PDP PDNP PUD Total Proved By Reserve Mix By Commodity Mix Standalone Pro Forma Standalone Pro Forma PDP 82% PDNP 5% PUD 13% PDP 69% PDNP 3% PUD 28% Oil 62% Gas 27% Gas 54% NGLs 14% Oil 32% NGLs 11% Note: Proved reserves as of 6/30/12 based on internal reserve report. 10

11 Our Successful Execution of the E&P MLP Strategy High Quality, Low Risk Asset Portfolio Geographically diverse portfolio of long life assets, well positioned in most of the mature US basins 136 MMBoe total proved reserves, 72% proved developed and 15 year Proved R/P Balanced commodity portfolio transitioned portfolio from 100% gas at IPO to approximately 46% liquids Low capital requirements to maintain cash flow going forward $46.5 million capital expenditure program for 2012 which is approximately 20% of 2012E Adjusted EBITDA Disciplined Acquisition Strategy 15 strategic acquisitions since the IPO, including the recent acquisition of ENP and the Woodford/Fayetteville acquisition Average acquisition price of ~$10.45/Boe and captured margins of ~$47.70Boe Acquisitions have supported 41% distribution growth since 2008 while improving overall coverage and credit position We review between and evaluate approximately 50 acquisition candidates each year Active Hedging Program Approximately 80% of expected oil production hedged through 2014 at FLOOR PRICE of $90.89 per barrel Approximately 85% of expected natural gas production hedged through 1H 2017 at $5.11 per MMBtu Acquisition strategy incorporates active hedging component to lock in anticipated margins Strong Credit Profile Well capitalized balance sheet with sufficient liquidity and spending coverage VNR is not outspending cash flow like many resource play focused peers Management commitment to maintaining long-term leverage of less than 3.0x Debt / EBITDA No General Partner or incentive distribution rights (IDRs) Proven Management Team with Extensive Experience Extensive experience in acquisition integration, development and operation of oil and gas assets demonstrated at Vanguard and previous companies Continuing to build team and infrastructure to support VNR s growing company and platform 11

12 Financial Overview

13 Summary Operating Performance Proved Reserves (MMBoe) (1) Production (Boe/d) ,000 23,242 20,000 18, ,000 11,946 10, ,000 1,935 2,701 3,335 4, (2) 0 (3) (2) (4) (4) E 2013E Adjusted EBITDA ($mm) Distribution Growth ($ / unit) 13 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $30 $49 $56 $80 $225 $245 $ E 2013E (5) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 $1.70 $1.89 $2.03 $2.19 (1) Proved reserves as of 6/30/12 based on internal reserve report. (2) Amounts illustrated reflect ENP and VNR proved reserves and production on a consolidated basis. Pro forma for exchange of Appalachian assets. (3) Pro forma for the recent Arkoma Basin acquisition. (4) Based on updated 2012E and 2013E guidance announced on August 2, (5) Adjusted EBITDA includes the non-controlling interest of ENP (6) Annualized quarterly distribution (7) Based on first quarter distribution of $ / unit and current quarterly distribution of $ / unit. (4) (4) (6) $2.31 $ (7)

14 Disciplined Financial Strategy Maintain conservative capital structure and sufficient liquidity Availability under Revolver as of August 1, 2012 of $250 million Target Debt / EBITDA of less than 3.0x Active management of debt levels by periodic access to the equity markets as needed Utilize excess cash flow to reduce revolving debt levels Prudent management of commodity price risk through multi-year hedging program Approximately 80% of expected oil production hedged through 2014 at a FLOOR PRICE of $90.89 per barrel Approximately 85% of expected natural gas production hedged through the first half of 2017 at $5.11 per MMBtu Acquisition strategy incorporates active hedging component to lock-in anticipated margins Prudently seek acquisitions utilizing our low cost of capital Accretive acquisitions of long life oil and gas assets Maintain a prudent coverage ratio to provide distribution stability and comfortable growth Maintain strong relationships with a diversified bank syndicate Currently have 21 banks in the Revolver 14

15 Hedging Philosophy Hedge commodity prices on estimated production from acquisitions for three to five years upon signing the Purchase and Sale Agreement to protect rate of return from price fluctuations Opportunistic hedging program to extend hedge positions as existing hedges roll off Reduce cash flow volatility and protect distribution levels Primary use of swaps and costless collars, with the addition of threeway collars to provide more upside Interest rate risk also mitigated through hedging 15

16 Locking in Margins Provides Stability Through the use of hedging, Vanguard is able to lock in significant acquisition margins for the foreseeable future, helping to insure distribution stability $ $92.82 $92.27 $93.42 $98.49 $90.00 $80.00 $80.28 $78.85 $84.87 $81.72 $70.00 $67.41 $60.00 $50.00 $60.42 $60.48 $56.12 $63.10 $68.50 $48.66 $63.99 $70.50 $51.62 $59.05 $77.93 $62.21 $82.57 $40.00 $43.74 $44.46 $44.83 $35.14 $30.00 $44.99 $31.21 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 $16.68 $16.02 Apache (12/21/07) Dos Hermanos (7/21/08) $11.29 SUN TSH (7/21/09) $17.19 Ward County (11/30/09) $24.32 Parker Creek (5/3/10) $18.75 Encore (11/17/10) $14.85 $14.37 Permian (6/22/11) Permian (8/15/11) $6.63 Wyoming (9/1/11) $22.67 Gulf coast (8/31/11) $14.34 $15.92 Montana / Mississippi Wyoming N. Dakota (12/1/11) (12/22/11) (3/31/12) $30.05 $5.09 Arkoma (6/29/12) * NYMEX 5 Year WAVG Forward Strip Price on a Boe Basis Acquisiton Cost per Boe * Arkoma Basin acquisition adjusted for value of the hedges acquired. 16

17 Hedges Mitigate Commodity Price Risk Approximately 80% of expected crude oil production (total proved) thru 2014 Approximately 85% of expected natural gas production (total proved) thru the first half of ,500 Weighted average floor price of $90.89 per barrel ( ) 30,000 Weighted average price of $5.11 per MMBtu $5.09 MBbls 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 $89.50 $91.25 $92.29 $ % 9% 34% 29% 14% 42% 3% 19% 83% MMcfe 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 $ % 2% 86% 100% $5.07 $ % 24% $ % 86% 76% 75% $ % % 45% 47% 9% 7% , % H 2017 Swaps Collars Three Way Collars Put Spreads Unhedged Swaps Puts Unhedged 17 Note: Hedge prices reflect a weighted average of swap prices, floor prices on collars and puts and long put prices on three way collars. Excludes production associated with the exchanged Appalachia properties. Excludes NGL production.

18 Vanguard s Value Proposition Vanguard has the highest distribution growth rate since its IPO in October 2007 However, Vanguard is still trading at a higher yield than many of its peers 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 8.9% 41% 5.7% 28% Typically, MLPs with a track record of distribution growth are valued at a premium.not currently? 8.6% 24% 11.4% 18% 9.9% 7.5% 15% 15% VNR EVEP LGCY QRE BBEP LINE PSE 2011 Coverage: (1) 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x 1.2x 1.3x 1.2x 1.4x 2012E Guidance: (2) 1.25x 2013E Guidance: (2) 1.35x Current Yields in Yellow 8.0% 4% 18 Note: Does not include recent IPOs of MCEP, LRE and MEMP. Market Data based on August 2, 2012 pricing. (1) 2011 distribution coverage taken from company press releases and market research. (2) Based on updated 2012E and 2013E guidance announced on August 2, 2012.

19 Price Performance Since 2009 The results have been great. VNR has outperformed US Royalty Trusts, C-Corps and other E&P MLPs. The strategy works. 600% 500% % Price Performance (%) 400% 300% 200% 100% % % +95.4% +51.1% + 0.6% 0 Jan-09 Sep-09 Jun-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Aug-12 (1) (2) VNR E&P MLP WTI AMZ S&P 500 Royalty Trusts Note: Market data as of 8/2/2012. (1) E&P MLP Index includes: BBEP, EVEP, LGCY, LINE, PSE, QRE, MCEP, MEMP, PSE, ARP, LRE. (2) US Royalty Trust Index includes: CRT, HGT, MTR, PBT, SBR and SJT. 19

20 Key Investor Considerations Management and unitholders are well aligned High quality, long lived reserves Asset base generates stable cash flow Multi-year hedge program mitigates commodity risk Geographic and commodity diversity Structure is unitholder friendly (no IDRs) Attractive distribution yield Profitably grow company and increase distribution THE ONLY MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION MLP 20

21 Appendix

22 Experienced Management Team Name Title Prior Affiliations Years of Experience Scott W. Smith President and CEO Ensource Energy The Wiser Oil Company San Juan Partners >32 Richard A. Robert EVP and CFO Enbridge USA Midcoast Energy Resources Various energy-related entrepreneurial ventures >20 Britt Pence Senior Vice President of Operations Anadarko Petroleum Greenhill Petroleum Mobil >28 Mark Carnes Director of Acquisitions Synergy Oil & Gas Petromark Torch Energy Advisors >35 Chris Raper Land Manager Synergy Oil & Gas Amoco Production >33 Rod Banks Marketing Manager Apache Corporation Mariner Energy Producers Energy Marketing Coastal Gas Marketing ORYX Energy Company >32

23 Permian Basin Acquired producing assets from Apache in December 2007 Established Permian Basin as an operating area, with approximately 50 operated wells in 7 fields Encore acquisition added 16.9 MMBoe of proved reserves (37% oil, 78% PDP) 2011 acquisitions added 9.3 MMBoe of proved reserves (75% oil, 95% PDP) Added 3 field offices Future growth opportunities through bolt-on acquisitions PERMIAN BASIN ASSET Proved Reserves: 29.9 MMBoe (1) 59% liquids and 86% Proved Developed 85% operated 121,952 gross (91,564 net) acres 926 Vanguard operated producing wells ~5.1 MBoe/d 2011 net production (57% liquids) R/P ratio of 16 years (1) D&M estimates as of 12/31/11, $96.24/bbl and $4.12/MMBtu price deck

24 Big Horn Basin Majority of Big Horn Basin properties located in Elk Basin and Gooseberry Field Elk Basin Major producing horizons include Embar- Tensleep, Madison, Frontier Formations Gooseberry Field Active waterflood project located 60 miles south of Elk Basin, which consists of 26 active producing wells Operatorship over local systems: (i) Elk Basin natural gas processing plant (XOM owns 34% interest) (ii) Wildhorse pipeline system (12-mile natural gas gathering system) Asset Map BIG HORN BASIN ASSET Proved Reserves: 26.5 MMBoe (1) 88% liquids and 97% Proved Developed 93% operated 36,312 gross (31,651 net) acres 335 Vanguard operated producing wells ~3.9 MBoe/d 2011 net production (80% liquids) R/P ratio of 18 years (1) D&M estimates as of 12/31/11, $96.24/bbl and $4.12/MMBtu price deck Field Offices

25 South Texas Acquired properties from Lewis Energy in July 2008 and July 2009 Webb County, TX Most of the South Texas properties are located in two fields Gold River North Field (Webb County, TX) Sun TSH Field (La Salle County, TX) Reserves comprised of rich gas and NGL production Additional upside potential if gas prices rebound SOUTH TEXAS ASSETS Proved Reserves: 46.8 Bcfe (1) 41% liquids and 65% Proved Developed 0% operated 21,020 gross (14,266 net) acres 191 Lewis operated producing wells ~6.5 MMcfe/d current net production (39% liquids) R/P ratio of 19 years La Salle County, TX (1) D&M estimates as of 12/31/11, $96.24/bbl and $4.12/MMBtu price deck

26 Williston Basin Located in North Dakota and Montana Williston Basin properties include: Horse Creek, Charlson Madison Unit, Cedar Creek MT, Lookout Butte East, Pine, Beaver Creek and others Bakken activity began in Participated as non-operator with Continental, SM Energy, Oasis and Brigham. Negotiating JV for additional development in Asset Map WILLISTON BASIN ASSET Proved Reserves: 5.4 MMBoe (1) 92% oil and 91% Proved Developed 70% operated 63,996 gross (45,022 net) acres 75 Vanguard operated producing wells ~0.9 MBoe/d current net production (90% liquids) R/P ratio of 16 years (1) D&M estimates as of 12/31/11, $96.24/bbl and $4.12/MMBtu price deck

27 Mississippi Acquired producing assets in Mississippi, Texas and New Mexico in May 2010 Inventory of PDNP opportunities and recompletions designed to maintain production in 2012 Majority of production comes from Parker Creek Field in Jones County, MS 65% WI Mainly oil production that produces from the Hosston Formation from a depth ranging from 13,000 ft. to 15,000 ft. Parker Creek MISSISSIPPI ASSETS Proved Reserves: 2.5 MMBoe (1) 100% oil; 76% Proved Developed 90% operated 2,560 gross (1,296 net) acres 9 Vanguard operated producing wells ~0.6 MBoe/d current net production (99% liquids) R/P ratio of 11 years (1) D&M estimates as of 12/31/11, $96.24/bbl and $4.12/MMBtu price deck Jones County, MS