Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call Presentation July 28, 2016

Transcription

1 Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call Presentation July 28, 2016

2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding MPLX LP ( MPLX ) and Marathon Petroleum Corporation ( MPC ). These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, expectations, estimates and projections concerning the business and operations of MPLX and MPC. You can identify forward-looking statements by words such as anticipate, believe, design, estimate, expect, forecast, goal, "guidance," imply, intend, objective, opportunity, outlook, "plan, position, pursue, prospective, predict, project, "potential," seek, strategy, target, could, may, should, would, will or other similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond the companies control and are difficult to predict. Factors that could cause MPLX's actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: negative capital market conditions, including a persistence or increase of the current yield on common units, which is higher than historical yields, adversely affecting MPLX s ability to meet its distribution growth guidance; risk that the synergies from the acquisition of MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. ( MarkWest ) by MPLX may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected; disruption from the MPLX/MarkWest merger making it more difficult to maintain relationships with customers, employees or suppliers; risks relating to any unforeseen liabilities of MarkWest; the adequacy of MPLX's capital resources and liquidity, including, but not limited to, availability of sufficient cash flow to pay distributions, and the ability to successfully execute its business plans and growth strategy; the timing and extent of changes in commodity prices and demand for crude oil, refined products, feedstocks or other hydrocarbon-based products; continued/further volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; completion of midstream infrastructure by competitors; disruptions due to equipment interruption or failure, including electrical shortages and power grid failures; the suspension, reduction or termination of MPC's obligations under MPLX's commercial agreements; modifications to earnings and distribution growth objectives; the level of support from MPC, including drop-downs, alternative financing arrangements, taking equity units, and other methods of sponsor support, as a result of the capital allocation needs of the enterprise as a whole and its ability to provide support on commercially reasonable terms; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations and/or enforcement actions initiated thereunder; changes to MPLX's capital budget; other risk factors inherent to MPLX s industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPLX's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2015, and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2016, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Factors that could cause MPC s actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: risks described above relating to MPLX and the MPLX/MarkWest merger; changes to the expected construction costs and timing of pipeline projects; continued/further volatility in and/or degradation of market and industry conditions; the availability and pricing of crude oil and other feedstocks; slower growth in domestic and Canadian crude supply; the effects of the lifting of the U.S. crude oil export ban; completion of pipeline capacity to areas outside the U.S. Midwest; consumer demand for refined products; transportation logistics; the reliability of processing units and other equipment; MPC s ability to successfully implement growth opportunities; modifications to MPLX earnings and distribution growth objectives; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations, including the cost of compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard, and/or enforcement actions initiated; changes to MPC s capital budget; other risk factors inherent to MPC s industry; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPC's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2015, filed with the SEC. In addition, the forward-looking statements included herein could be affected by general domestic and international economic and political conditions. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed here, in MPLX's Form 10-K or Form 10-Q or in MPC's Form 10-K could also have material adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Copies of MPLX's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q are available on the SEC website, MPLX's website at or by contacting MPLX's Investor Relations office. Copies of MPC's Form 10-K are available on the SEC website, MPC's website at or by contacting MPC's Investor Relations office. Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjusted EBITDA, distributable cash flow (DCF) and distribution coverage ratio are non-gaap financial measures provided in this presentation. Adjusted EBITDA and DCF reconciliations to the nearest GAAP financial measure are included in the Appendix to this presentation and in our second-quarter 2016 earnings release, which is on our website at Distribution coverage ratio is the ratio of DCF attributable to GP and LP unitholders to total GP and LP distributions declared. Adjusted EBITDA, DCF and distribution coverage ratio are not defined by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to net income attributable to MPLX, net cash provided by operating activities or other financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. 2

3 Highlights Reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $351 million and distributable cash flow of $285 million with a strong distribution coverage ratio of 1.24x Declared distribution of $0.51 per common unit for the second quarter 2016, a 16 percent increase over second quarter 2015 Confirmed 2016 guidance of 12 to 15 percent distribution growth rate over the prior year, double-digit distribution growth rate in 2017 Completed $1.3 billion of financing this year, providing for the partnership s forecasted funding needs through the remainder of 2016 and into 2017 Focused on supporting producer customers requirements and executing on an exceptional set of opportunities Announced Frank Semple will retire as vice chairman on Oct. 31,

4 Logistics & Storage Segment First full quarter with: Inland marine business and its fee-for-capacity contract with MPC Expanded Patoka-to- Robinson, Illinois, pipeline operations Continued construction of the Cornerstone Pipeline and began construction of pipeline connection to Hopedale, both expected in-service during 4Q

5 Gathering & Processing Segment Southwest Operations Completed 200 MMcf/d Hidalgo processing plant supporting producers in the Delaware Basin Facility utilization of ~80% after three months in operation Processed volumes expected to increase ~15% over prior year Gathered volumes expected to increase ~5% over prior year Area Processed Volumes Available Capacity (MMcf/d) (a) Average Volume (MMcf/d) Utilization (%) West Texas (b) % East Texas % Western OK % Southeast OK (c) % Gulf Coast % 2Q16 Total 1,383 1,092 79% 1Q16 Total 1,287 1,051 82% (a) Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service, excluding periods of maintenance at the Javelina complex during the quarter which impacted available capacity. (b) West Texas is comprised of the Hidalgo plant in the Delaware Basin (c) Processing capacity includes Partnership s portion of Centrahoma JV and excludes volumes sent to third parties 5

6 Gathering & Processing Segment Marcellus & Utica Operations Processed volumes averaged over 4.1 Bcf/d Commenced operations of 200 MMcf/d processing plant at Mobley Complex Processed volumes expected to increase by ~15% over prior year Gathered volumes expected to increase by ~20% over prior year Area Processed Volumes Available Capacity (MMcf/d) (a) Average Volume (MMcf/d) Utilization (%) Marcellus 3,890 3,072 79% Houston % Majorsville 1, % Mobley % Sherwood 1, % Keystone % Utica 1,325 1,034 78% Cadiz % Seneca % 2Q16 Total 5,215 4,106 79% 1Q16 Total 5,280 4,272 81% (a) Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service, excluding periods of maintenance at the Mobley & Sherwood complexes during the quarter which impacted available capacity. 6

7 Gathering & Processing Segment Marcellus & Utica Fractionation Commenced operations of 10 MBb/d de-ethanization facility at Mobley Complex Production of purity ethane has increased 76% from second quarter 2015 Continuous deliveries of propane via unit trains from Hopedale Complex Fractionated volumes expected to increase by ~25% over prior year Area Fractionated Volumes Available Capacity (MBbl/d) (a) Average Volume (MBbl/d) Utilization (%) 2Q16 Total C % 2Q16 Total C % 1Q16 Total C % 1Q16 Total C % (a) Based on weighted average number of days plant(s) in service 7

8 MPLX Northeast Operations Well-Positioned in Ethane Market Ethane demand growing as exports and steam cracker development continues in Gulf Coast and Northeast MPLX well-positioned to support producer customers rich-gas development with extensive distributed de-ethanization system Based on current utilization, MPLX can support the production of an additional ~70 MBbl/d of purity ethane with existing assets Opportunity to invest $500 million to $1 billion to support Northeast ethane recovery over the next five years Seneca Ohio Harmon Creek Cadiz Pennsylvania Majorsville Mobley Sherwood West Virginia Houston Keystone MPLX De-ethanization Facility MPLX Processing Complex MPLX Planned De-ethanization Facility Steam Cracker Planned Steam Cracker Proposed MPLX Ethane Pipeline ATEX Pipeline Mariner West Pipeline Mariner East 1 Pipeline 8

9 2016 Organic Capital Investment 2016 organic growth capital forecast narrowed to a range of $900 million to $1.2 billion Gathering & Processing capital includes infrastructure to support Northeast and Southwest operations Logistics & Storage capital includes Cornerstone Pipeline, Robinson butane cavern, and expansion of pipeline and storage capacity 22% 8% 33% 37% Marcellus Utica Southwest Logistics & Storage 9

10 2Q 2016 Financial Highlights $MM Adjusted EBITDA (a) Q15 2Q16 $MM Distributable Cash Flow (a) Q15 2Q16 Operating Income by Segment ($MM) Three Months Ended June Logistics and Storage Gathering and Processing Segment Operating Income (a) Represents amount attributable to MPLX. Reflects the results of MarkWest from the date of the merger, Dec. 4,

11 Adjusted EBITDA 2Q 2016 vs. 2Q 2015 Variance Analysis $ MM (3) (6) 0 2Q 2015 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to MPLX Deferred revenue L&S Tariffs L&S Volumes Marine Business MarkWest Other 2Q 2016 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to MPLX 11

12 MPLX has Strong Financial Flexibility to Manage and Grow Asset Base ($MM except ratio data) As of 6/30/16 Total assets 16,079 Total debt 4,401 Redeemable preferred units 993 Total equity 9,473 Consolidated total debt to LTM pro forma adjusted EBITDA ratio (a) 3.7x Remaining capacity available under $2.0 B revolving credit agreement 1,992 Remaining capacity available under $500 MM credit agreement with MPC 500 (a) Calculated using face value total debt and last twelve month pro forma Adjusted EBITDA, which is pro forma for acquisitions and excludes impairments. 12

13 Commodity Price Sensitivities 94% fee-based net operating margin, 6% commodity exposed for 2016 Maintain active hedging program and have currently hedged ~45% of our remaining 2016 commodity exposure; beginning to hedge for 2017 Annual 2016 sensitivities to commodity price changes (assumes no hedges): Product Commodity Price Change Annual DCF Impact Natural Gas Liquids (Mont Belvieu) $.05 per weighted average gallon (a) ~$18 million Crude Oil (WTI) $1 per barrel ~$1 million Natural Gas (Henry Hub) $.50 per mmbtu <$1 million NOTE: Net Operating Margin is calculated as segment revenue less purchased product costs less realized derivative gains (losses). (a) The composition is based on MPLX s average projected barrel of approximately: Ethane: 35%, Propane: 35%, Iso-Butane: 6%, Normal Butane: 12%, Natural Gasoline: 12%. 13

14 2016 Forecast MPLX has increased the midpoints of its 2016 financial forecast Financial Measure Net Income (a) Adjusted EBITDA (b) Net cash provided by operating activities Distributable Cash Flow (b) 2016 Forecast $140 million - $240 million $1.3 billion - $1.4 billion $1.1 billion - $1.2 billion $1.0 billion - $1.1 billion Distribution Growth Rate (c) 12% - 15% Growth Capital Expenditures $900 million - $1.2 billion (a) Guidance includes the $130 million first-half non-cash goodwill impairment charges and the $89 million second-quarter non-cash equity method impairment charge. (b) Non-GAAP measure excluding the $130 million first-half non-cash goodwill impairment charges and the $89 million second-quarter non-cash equity method impairment charge. See reconciliation in appendix. (c) Full year distribution growth rate. 14

15 Appendix 15

16 Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow Reconciliation from Net Income ($MM) Q Q Q Q Q Q 2016 Net income (loss) (37) 20 Plus: Depreciation and amortization Provision (benefit) for income taxes (4) (8) Amortization of deferred financing costs Non-cash equity-based compensation Impairment expense Net interest and other financial costs Equity investment income (loss) (3) (5) 83 Distributions from unconsolidated subsidiaries Unrealized (gain) loss on commodity hedges (4) 9 12 Acquisition costs (2) Adjusted EBITDA Less: Adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Predecessor (a) Plus: MarkWest s pre-merger EBITDA (b) Adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX LP (c) Plus: Current period cash received/deferred revenue for committed volume deficiencies Less: Net interest and other financial costs Equity investment capital expenditures paid (14) (28) (10) Investment in unconsolidated affiliates Maintenance capital expenditures paid Volume deficiency credits recognized Adjustments attributable to Predecessor (a) (7) (2) - (1) - - (1) - Other Distributable cash flow pre-markwest undistributed MarkWest undistributed DCF (b) (16) - - Distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX LP Less: Preferred unit distributions Distributable cash flow available to GP and LP unitholders (a) The adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow adjustments related to the Predecessor of the inland marine business are excluded from the adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX and distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX prior to the Mar. 31, 2016 acquisition. (b) MarkWest pre-merger EBITDA and undistributed distributable cash flow from Oct. 1, 2015 through Dec. 3, (c) In the third quarter of 2015, we revised adjusted EBITDA to exclude acquisition costs and unrealized (gain) loss on commodity hedges on a prospective basis. 16

17 Segment Operating Income Reconciliation to Income From Operations ($MM) 2Q Q 2016 Segment operating income attributable to MPLX LP Segment portion attributable to unconsolidated affiliates - (83) Segment portion attributable to NCI and Predecessor (a) Loss from equity method investments - (83) Other income related parties - 11 Unrealized derivative loss - (12) Depreciation and amortization (20) (137) Impairment expense - (1) General and administrative expenses (21) (49) Income from operations (a) The operating income of the Predecessor of the inland marine business is excluded from segment operating income attributable to MPLX prior to the Mar. 31, 2016 acquisition. 17

18 2016 Forecast - Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash-Flow Reconciliation from Net Income ($MM) Low High Net income Plus: Depreciation and amortization Impairment expense (a) Net interest and other financial costs Adjustment for equity investment earnings & distributions (b) Other Adjusted EBITDA 1,303 1,403 Less: Adjusted EBITDA attributable to noncontrolling interests 3 3 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX LP 1,300 1,400 Less: Net interest and other financial costs Maintenance capital Other Distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX LP 1,000 1,100 Less Preferred unit distributions Distributable cash flow available to GP and LP unitholders 959 1,059 (a) Includes a pretax, non-cash goodwill impairment charge. (b) Includes a pretax, non-cash impairment of $89 million related to an equity method investment. 18

19 Gathering & Processing Growth Projects HOPEDALE FRACTIONATION COMPLEX (MarkWest & MarkWest Utica EMG shared fractionation capacity) C3+ Fractionation I & II 120,000 Bbl/d Operational C3+ Fractionation III 60,000 Bbl/d 2Q17 OHIO GATHERING & OHIO CONDENSATE MarkWest Utica EMG s Joint Venture with Summit Midstream, LLC Stabilization Facility 23,000 Bbl/d Operational CADIZ COMPLEX Cadiz I III 525 MMcf/d Operational Cadiz IV 200 MMcf/d 2018 De-ethanization 40,000 Bbl/d Operational SENECA COMPLEX Seneca I IV 800 MMcf/d Operational Gathering System Marcellus Complex Utica Complex NGL Pipeline Purity Ethane Pipeline ATEX Express Pipeline TEPPCO Product Pipeline Mariner West Pipeline Mariner East Pipeline MOBLEY COMPLEX Mobley I V 920 MMcf/d Operational De-ethanization 10,000 Bbl/d Operational WEST VIRGINIA OHIO PENNSYLVANIA KEYSTONE COMPLEX Bluestone I III & Sarsen I 410 MMcf/d Operational Bluestone IV 200 MMcf/d TBD C2+ Fractionation 67,000 Bbl/d Operational De-ethanization 20,000 Bbl/d 2017 HARMON CREEK COMPLEX Harmon Creek I 200 MMcf/d 2017 De-ethanization 20,000 Bbl/d 2017 HOUSTON COMPLEX Houston I IV 555 MMcf/d Operational C2+ Fractionation 100,000 Bbl/d Operational MAJORSVILLE COMPLEX Majorsville I VI 1,070 MMcf/d Operational Majorsville VII 200 MMcf/d TBD De-ethanization 40,000 Bbl/d Operational SHERWOOD COMPLEX Sherwood I VI 1,200 MMcf/d Operational De-ethanization 40,000 Bbl/d Operational Sherwood VII 200 MMcf/d 2017 Note: Forecasted completion dates of projects are shown in green. New Mexico Delaware Basin Texas HIDALGO COMPLEX 200 MMcf/d Operational 19

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