Agricultural Act of 2014

Transcription

1 Farm Bill Cash Flow 2017 Outlook Conference for Agricultural Lenders Grand Forks Oct. 16 Fargo Oct. 31 Andrew Swenson Extension Farm Management Specialist Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics North Dakota State University

2 Agricultural Act of 2014 Covered Commodities for ARC/PLC Program Barley Canola Corn Crambe Flaxseed Chickpea, Large Chickpea, Small Grain Sorghum Lentils Mustard Seed Oats Peanuts Peas, Dry Rapeseed Rice, Long Grain Rice, Medium Safflowers Sesame Seed Grain Soybeans Sunflower Seed Wheat

3 North Dakota Base Acres, by Crop, Under the 2014 Farm Bill 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Farm Bill

4 Base Acres Vary by County Crop Cass Cavalier Wheat 116, ,026 Soybean 465,763 42,928 Corn 290,057 3,319 Canola ,974 Barley 10,054 40,044 Sunflower 8,010 8,015 Oats Flax 14 9,337 Peas 42 1,338 Mustard , , , , ,000 Acres Wheat Soybean Corn Canola Cass Cavalier

5 100% North Dakota Base Acre ARC/PLC Election (%) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ARC CO PLC

6 How Does Price Loss Coverage (PLC) work? Payment rate is reference price minus the higher of national average marketing year price and the national loan rate Payment rate times PLC payment yield times 85% times base acres Note: The PLC payment yield is fixed for the period. It is the higher of the old Counter-Cyclical Payment (CCP) yield and 90% of the average yield for the crop on that farm.

7 Payment Calculation for PLC Example for farm with 100 acres canola base and canola payment yield of 1,782 lbs/acre: Canola reference price.2015 $/lb Canola national MYA price.1660 $/lb = Payment rate of Canola.0355 $/lb x Canola payment yield 1,782 lb/ac = Payment per base acre $63.26 x Canola base acres 100 acre = $6,326 x (paid on 85% of base) 85% = total farm Canola PLC pmt $5,377

8 PLC Payment Rates for 2014, 2015, and 2016 National MYA Price Reference (USDA 10/12/2017) Payment Rate per PLC Yield Crop Unit Price Wheat bu $ 5.50 $ 5.99 $ 4.89 $ 3.89 $ $ 0.61 $ 1.61 Soybean bu Corn bu Barley bu Oats bu Flax bu e e Sorghum bu Canola lb Sunflower lb e e Dry Peas lb Lentils lb Safflower lb e Mustard lb e Lg.Ckpea lb e Sm.Ckpea lb e

9 Projected PLC Payment Rates for 2017 (Way too early to know) Projected 2017 Reference Nat'l MYA Price PLC Crop Unit Price (USDA 10/12/2017) Payment Rate Wheat bu $ 5.50 $ 4.60 $ 0.90 Soybean bu Corn bu Barley bu Oats bu Flax bu Sorghum bu Canola lb Sunflower lb Dry Peas lb Lentils lb Safflower lb Mustard lb Lg.Ckpea lb Sm.Ckpea lb

10 ARC-County Payment Calculation ARC payment rate per acre is amount that current year s Actual Revenue is less than the Revenue Guarantee Revenue Guarantee is 86% of the Benchmark Revenue Benchmark Revenue is the 5-year olympic average national MYA year price times the 5-year olympic average county yield Actual Revenue is the current year county average yield times the national MYA price Maximum ARC payment rate is 10% of benchmark revenue ARC payment rate is multiplied by 85% of the program crop s base acres for total payment

11 ARC County Option 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 14% of revenue producer risk ARC coverage maximum = 10% of benchmark revenue Not covered producer risk Base acres Planted acres

12 2016 ARC CO Payment Analysis (paid in late 2017) Projected Pmt Bench Actual 2016 Actual Price if Benchmark & mark MYA Price as Percent of Actual Yields Crop Unit Price (10/12/2017) Benchmk Price* are the same Wheat bu % max Sorghum bu % max Oats bu % max Flax bu % max Corn bu % max Sunflower lb % max Canola lb % some Dry Peas lb % some Soybean bu % some Safflower lb % some Barley bu % none Mustard lb % none Lg.Ckpea lb % none Sm.Ckpea lb % none Lentils lb % none

13 2016 ARC-CO Payment Analysis (paid in late 2017) Projected Pmt Highest Actual Yield as Bench Actual 2016 Actual Price if Benchmark & percent of Benchmark Yield mark MYA Price as Percent of Actual Yields allowed to get: Crop Unit Price (10/12/2017) Benchmk Price* are the same max pmt a pmt Wheat bu % max 131% 148% Sorghum bu % max 130% 147% Oats bu % max 128% 145% Flax bu % max 125% 141% Corn bu % max 108% 123% Sunflower lb % max 100% 113% Canola lb % some 99% 112% Dry Peas lb % some 98% 111% Soybean bu % some 95% 108% Safflower lb % some 94% 107% Barley bu % none 86% 98% Mustard lb % none 80% 91% Lg.Ckpea lb % none 78% 89% Sm.Ckpea lb % none 71% 80% Lentils lb % none 62% 71% *If actual yield is same as benchmark yield, an ARC payment would be made when below 86%, maximum payment at 76% and below.

14 Benchmark Calculation 2016 Wheat Ramsey County Year Ramsey Co. Yield Nat l MYA Price (5.50 ref.) Olympic Average Benchmark Revenue = $ Revenue Guarantee = $322.67

15 2016 Wheat Ramsey County 2016 Benchmark Revenue $ Revenue Guarantee (86% x B.R.) $ Maximum ARC payment (10% x B.R.) $ Ramsey County Actual Yield 48 bu National MYA Price $ Actual Revenue $ Guarantee minus Actual Revenue $ $37.52 exceeds max. pmt max. payment rate Payment Rate * 85% $31.89 Payment per base acre

16 Declining benchmark prices will cause lower Revenue Guarantees unless Benchmark County Yields increase in equal or greater magnitude. Benchmark Prices for ARC Program Crop Units est. Wheat bu Soybean bu Corn bu Oats bu

17 Benchmark Calculation 2017 Wheat Ramsey County Year Ramsey Co. Yield Nat l MYA Price (5.50 ref.) (5.50 ref.) Olympic Average Benchmark Revenue = $ Revenue Guarantee = $294.74

18 2017 Wheat Ramsey County 2017 Benchmark Revenue $ Revenue Guarantee (86% x B.R.) $ Maximum ARC payment (10% x B.R.) $34.27 projected 2017 Ramsey County Yield 58 bu National MYA Price $ Actual Revenue $ Guarantee minus Actual Revenue $27.94 Payment Rate * 85% $23.75 Payment per base acre

19 2017 ARC-CO Payment Analysis (paid in late 2018) Projected Projected Projected Pmt Highest Actual Yield as Bench Actual 2017 Actual Price if Benchmark & percent of Benchmark Yield mark MYA Price as Percent of Actual Yields allowed to get: Crop Unit Price (10/12/2017) Benchmk Price* are the same max pmt a pmt Flax bu % max 108% 122% Sorghum bu % max 107% 121% Wheat bu % max 101% 114% Oats bu % some 95% 107% Corn bu % some 94% 106% Barley bu % none 93% 105% Canola lb % some 91% 103% Soybean bu % some 90% 102% Sunflower lb % some 88% 100% Dry Peas lb % none 87% 98% Safflower lb % none 85% 97% Mustard lb % none 81% 91% Lg.Ckpea lb % none 79% 89% Sm.Ckpea lb % none 74% 83% Lentils lb % none 65% 74% *If actual yield is same as benchmark yield, an ARC payment would be made when below 86%, maximum payment at 76% and below.

20 ARC CO for 2017 Crop (paid in late 2018) Benchmark USDA (10/12/17) MYA Price as % of Crop Price 2017 MYA est Benchmark Price Wheat $ 6.12 $ % Corn % Soybean % Payments are made if actual revenue is less than 86% of the benchmark revenue, with the maximum payment achieved at 76% or less of the benchmark revenue. Therefore, in this price scenario If actual yields equal the benchmark yield, there would be a maximum ARC CO payment on wheat, a middling payment on corn, and pittance payment on soybean. Payments will be highly variable from county to county, depending on 2017 yields. If the 2017 benchmark and MYA price relationships hold there will be a maximum payment for wheat if actual yield is 101% or less of the benchmark yield, for corn if actual yield is 94% or less of the benchmark yield, for soybeans if actual yield is 90% or less of the county benchmark yield. Therefore, maximum payments are probable in low yield counties at current 2017 MYA price projection. Conversely, if wheat, corn and soybean actual yields are 114%, 106% or 102% or more relative to the county benchmark yield, respectively, there would be $0 payment.