Downpour or light drizzle?

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1 Downpour or light drizzle? Albertans brace for worst from economic storm By Darcy Henton and Bill Mah, The Edmonton Journal November 7, 2008 EDMONTON - Dark clouds of a recession that hang over Alberta appear to foreshadow a major economic tempest, but financial experts can't say with certainty how hard the winds of misfortune will blow. The financial turmoil in the stock market has spilled across the province, affecting everything from the timing and scope of major oilsands projects to housing developments. Automobile sales, one of the early indicators of a recession, have dropped for only the second time since Housing starts and retail sales are slumping as Albertans brace for the worst. Some economists say the province is in great shape to ride out the storm, that a little cold water on the sizzling hot economy may be a good thing in the long run. Others predict an economic tsunami, warning Albertans to batten down expectations and prepare for up to 18 months of financial turbulence. Which view is correct? Only time will tell, but caution is the watchword. "Without question, Alberta will be affected by the slowdown we're seeing in the United States," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist for ATB Financial. "Alberta can't escape this, but we're in the best possible shape one could imagine if there are headwinds coming." Hirsch expects the Alberta economy to slow down, but nothing like the recessions of , when interest, inflation and unemployment rates were sky high. He anticipates the provincial economy to continue to grow up to two per cent a year -- much slower than in 2006, when it grew at a staggering 6.5 per cent, but still expanding nonetheless.

2 "I am not expecting a recession in Alberta," Hirsch said. "Canada will likely go into recession, but that slowdown will be focused primarily in Ontario and Quebec." Peter Tertzakian, chief energy analyst at ARC Financial Corp., is not so optimistic. He won't rule out the possibility that Alberta is entering a major recession. "I think there's a sense of denial here still," he said. "We need a wake-up call." Tertzakian said every economic measurement is heading down. Expect to see budget cuts in the private and public sectors. "With all the indicators down, I am not quite sure how it is that some people think we're immune from this situation." The first thing people must do is accept that the situation is serious and that it could be 2010 before the economy begins to recover. "Don't live in a dream world. We're all affected as Canadians and even as Albertans," Tertzakian said. "There's been substantial damage done. The recovery period will take time. It's like an earthquake. We have the aftershocks and then we have to rebuild. This has been a pretty serious seismic event in the financial world." Jim Kershaw, a senior vice-president with TD Waterhouse and the company's Western Canada regional manager, agreed Alberta is entering a recession. "You have to be prepared to accept that 2009 will be a tough year," he said. "Some say it will be 2010 until we see signs of real recovery. If it is, it will be longer than recent downturns, but still not exceptional in comparison to past experience." Tertzakian said Edmonton is vulnerable because so much of the city's fortunes depend on the oilsands. For example, Suncor's decision to slash spending by $3 billion is likely a $12-billion hit to the economy. "The multiplier effects of dollars spent will really shrink," he said

3 Economists warn that there's a big difference between being cautious and outright panic, but it's hard not to be fearful when there's an almost daily barrage of bad news. "You open up the paper and you turn on the TV and the market is down 800 points and everybody starts panicking," said Marc Perras, president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton. "It just becomes so self-fulfilling because we stop spending and all of a sudden, the economy is terrible. The truth is our local economy is still very strong." But the huge market swings have made it scarier and more unpredictable than the 1980 bust, said Roger Gibbins, president of the Canada West Foundation. "The thing I remember most clearly about the 1980s were the inflationary pressures," Gibbins said. "I don't recall being buffeted on so many fronts with such rapidity. I didn't sense in the '80s that the global financial system was crashing, that the major financial institutions were teetering on the brink. This seems to be a bigger, more rapid, less easily understood mess than we were in before." Wake-up call Laverne Martin-Forbes, a 64-year-old psychologist who was planning to retire next year until she lost 25 per cent of the value of her investments, said the market turmoil is a wake-up call. "It will make us all more careful," she says. "It was absolute insanity the way people were overextended, especially south of the border, personally and at a government level, living on borrowed money as if there would be no reckoning day." Economic experts agree there are lessons to be learned. The downturn in the economy will give Albertans a "nasty knock on the head," but it, too, will pass, said Jason Brisbois, chief economist at the Western Centre for Economic Research at the University of Alberta School of Business. "We're slowing our descent and coming in for a landing that won't be totally smooth, but won't jar anybody out of their seats," Brisbois said.

4 "People should be thankful they live in a country with a financial system as stable as Canada's. We're not at the economic peak we were a couple of years ago, but we're not facing the same degree of economic difficulty faced by most countries." Larry Pollock, president of the Canadian Western Bank, is confident of an economic rebound. Last month, his bank announced the purchase of 72.5-per-cent ownership of Edmonton-based Adroit Investment Management Ltd., which will provide investment services to his bank's clientele. Pollock said his bank is seeing strong, high-quality loan demands because its competitors, particularly foreign banks, aren't as active as a result of the global financial upheaval. "If you didn't watch TV and read the papers, you wouldn't know there's a whole lot wrong in Alberta," he said. "It's a little slower than it has been, but the economy was so white hot it wasn't sustainable." He said the economy "needed a settling down" so companies could get labour and other costs in line. TD Waterhouse's Kershaw said the shares of oilsands giants have "been pounded down to levels no one expected them to go" and that doesn't bode well for smaller companies. "If the large companies are going down, the smaller companies will go down faster," he said. Some businesses, he said, won't survive. "As much as it sounds cold, it's part of the cleansing process that must occur in order to get to the other side of this." Kershaw said Albertans won't suffer like people in the U.S., some of whom are losing their homes, but they should adopt a cautious approach to spending. "It's not all gloom and doom," he said. "Everybody has seen these cycles before. The economy will eventually recover and start to grow again."

5 Copyright (c) The Edmonton Journal